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Yahoo
11-02-2025
- Business
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Traders see profits evaporate in minutes as Trump convulses bets
(Bloomberg) — The early days of Donald Trump's trade war have been marked by a flurry of advances and retreats, forcing traders to adapt by increasingly making bets that are more conservative than usual or easily reversed. Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate NYC Sees Pedestrian Traffic Increase in Congestion-Pricing Zone Transportation Memos Favor Places With Higher Birth and Marriage Rates How London's Taxi Drivers Navigate the City Without GPS State Farm Seeks Emergency California Rate Hike After Fires 'The market is trying to predict and trade off a very unpredictable situation and person,' said Antony Foster, the London-based head of Group-of-10 spot trading at Nomura International Plc, who has taken to running smaller positions on currencies. 'You could look like a hero one minute, only for the situation to turn on a sixpence and you look like a zero the next.' As well as having to trade more nimbly or less boldly, investors are embracing more complex trading strategies to protect themselves against the conflicting headlines. They are having to be agile across multiple assets from the Mexican peso to Chinese stocks as Trump-driven spikes in volatility are evident worldwide. Trading volumes in the $300 billion-plus foreign-exchange options market have skyrocketed to multi-year highs as investors pile on protection. A measure of 10-day realized volatility on a gauge of Asian stocks jumped to the highest level since October. And the outlook for Treasuries has become more complicated as brinkmanship around tariffs muddies the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. 'The path of markets that would take weeks is being compressed into days — even a day,' said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors Pte. 'Increasingly violent intra-day swings will force traders to consider the lookback in which they measure volatility,' he said, referring to a method to gauge swings in the market. He added that he's speeding up entry and exits on trades. It's become trickier even for speculative funds, which are typically used to adjusting their positions to keep up with every twist and turn in the market. For George Boubouras, a three-decade market veteran, it's gotten increasingly hard to find bets that can stick. 'The positions are getting very short dated, less than 24 hours when in some cases before, days or a week were the norm,' said the head of research at K2 Asset Management in Melbourne, referring to bonds and stocks. 'Whether it's on currencies on credit, you have to adapt.' Recent moves in the Canadian dollar are a case in point. Volumes on loonie option trades on the CME Group (CME) reached their second-highest ever level on Jan. 31 as investors looked to hedge their risks before weekend announcements on trade policy shifts, said Chris Povey, London-based head of FX options. The currency fell to the lowest since 2003 on Monday after Trump imposed 25% duties on Canada, only to rebound as the tariffs were delayed. In Singapore, multi-strategy hedge fund GAO Capital has gone from shorting volatility to buying it as market swings pick up and betting on direction becomes harder by the day. The fund is 'staying nimble with trading guided by market flows,' said Chauwei Yak, chief executive officer. 'So being reactive rather than directional,' she said. It's the same in equity markets. US traders are turning to complex hedging strategies to manage heightened volatility as Trump's tariffs fan fears of a surge in inflation. The trouble for some is that options — a favored instrument to manage market risks — are becoming more expensive as levies, jitters around Chinese AI technology and peak earnings season coincide. 'It's generally a difficult tape and it's just harder right now to have conviction,' said Ling Zhou, head of equity derivatives strategy at TD Securities. One trade that stands out is investors on betting China, he said, with the idea that 'the bad' is already priced in, Trump can walk back some of his commentary and Beijing may roll out further stimulus. Option volumes for popular China-focused exchange-traded funds like the KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF have increased significantly in the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. After the US election, hedge funds added risk by increasing gross exposure, adding both long and short positions, said Charlie McElligott, managing director at Nomura Securities International. But because they had so much risk on their books, they needed a hedge. They bought this protection mainly through options, McElligott explained, like paying extra for out-of-the-money puts protecting against bigger market drops. George Molina, head of trading for Templeton Global Investments, is also adjusting to bigger market swings. 'As volatility spiked this week, we have become more opportunistic at strike prices,' he said, referring to the fixed price at which the owner of a derivative like an option can buy or sell the underlying security. He is also prolonging exposure to the market 'across the full day to capture more news bytes across time zones.' Bond traders are similarly on guard as Trump's policies revive debate on whether inflation would make a proper comeback in the US and undercut the case for monetary easing. Others are even contemplating the risk of a hike, adding to the uncertainty. 'Inflation is the kryptonite of bond investors,' said George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas. 'If you're trying to trade this market, you actually have to be really, really fast because the episodes have been really shortening in time.' Traders unwound Treasuries futures positions across shorter maturities on Monday by the most since November as Trump's levies spooked markets. Positions in two-year contracts now amount to a little over 4.1 million, the least since June. Meanwhile, investors in cash US government bonds have pulled back sharply from the biggest net long position in almost 15 years, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM) latest client survey shows. Meanwhile, Jack McIntyre is taking a different approach. He likes 'relative value trades' including emerging-market and UK debt, but prefers to be underweight core Europe and Treasuries. He's also opting to wait out wild market swings. 'Tariff talk might take a backseat for a few weeks — this round was clearly 'emergency' led,' said the portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. 'Patience is the operative word for real money accounts, for now.' —With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Cecile Vannucci, Michael Mackenzie and Yiqin Shen. Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison Inside Elon Musk's Attack on the US Government Amazon and SpaceX Want In on India's Satellite Internet Market Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
10-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Retreat Sparks New Push to Save $45 Billion Climate Deals
(Bloomberg) -- Nations including Germany and Japan are working to shore up programs aimed at delivering about $45 billion to help developing countries abandon fossil fuels as the US pulls back from a leadership role. Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate State Farm Seeks Emergency California Rate Hike After Fires Transportation Memos Favor Places With Higher Birth and Marriage Rates San Francisco Wants Wealthy Donors to Help Fix Fentanyl Crisis NY Transit Advocate Says Billions in Tax Hikes Would Fix MTA Talks between international partners are taking place seeking to sustain momentum in Just Energy Transition Partnership deals agreed under President Joe Biden's administration that target Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa, according to people familiar with the details. Germany will replace the US as co-leader of efforts to secure about $20 billion to support coal-reliant Indonesia's energy transition, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a statement. Global backers of JETP programs plan to assess the potential financial impact if the US withdraws all support, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss private deliberations. A meeting is being scheduled for either this month or March to review the outlook for the wider initiative, which includes Vietnam's roughly $15.5 billion deal and South Africa's $9.3 billion package, one of the people said. Discussions will also consider the implications for possible future funding pacts with nations like Colombia, the person said. 'The impact is manageable, provided the other countries continue,' said Putra Adhiguna, Jakarta-based managing director at the Energy Shift Institute, an Asia-focused think tank. President Donald Trump last month halted some US financial aid aimed at helping developing and middle-income countries respond to the threats of climate change and began the process to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for a second time, signaling the nation's intention to relinquish a role in driving global emissions reduction. A retreat of the US from climate diplomacy, and as a source of funding, is threatening to add new complications to the JETP plans. The programs were initially hailed as a breakthrough when they were first conceived in 2021 because they, in theory at least, solved a crucial problem: How to bring together public and private money to make it economically feasible for large developing nations to wean themselves off fossil fuels. Yet, the JETPs have struggled to deliver many of the intended objectives so far because of slow progress in financing efforts, political leadership changes in Indonesia and Vietnam, and the complexity of shuttering power plants that often have many decades of remaining operational life. The programs also only represent a fraction of the total financing required. Annual energy transition investment topped $2 trillion globally last year, yet that was only about 37% of the total that's needed to put the world on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, BloombergNEF said in a Jan. 30 report. Looming elections in Canada, Germany and France threaten to add further obstacles to the prospects for the JETP deals. 'The EU remains committed, even if a major partner of this JETP — the US — is no longer with us,' Diana Acconcia, director for international affairs and climate finance at the European Commission's Directorate General for Climate Action said Wednesday in Jakarta, referring to Indonesia's deal. Japan will continue to support Indonesia's decarbonization and energy transition, the Ministry of Finance said in an emailed statement. Nations outside the US and global banks are 'still committed to encouraging global emission reduction,' said Paul Butarbutar, head of Indonesia's JETP Secretariat, which oversees the program in the country. 'It is unfortunate that Trump took such a policy, but the others remain committed.' The US had pledged to contribute about $2.1 billion in public financing for the Indonesia deal, almost one-fifth of the total for that segment, according to a 2023 investment plan. Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto has suggested the nation could hit net-zero emissions as soon as 2050, a decade earlier than previous targets. The nation is holding talks with the World Bank, Japan and other partners on how to continue its JETP program, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Wednesday. Vietnam is finalizing a list of dozens of priority projects to be implemented under its JETP, according to the government. South Africa 'remains fully committed' to implementing its JETP, launched in 2021, and has not been informed about any US plans to end participation, the country's presidency said. Germany and France have already provided €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) to South Africa's Treasury through their development banks, and with other partners have paid out $630 million in grants, of which $55 million came from the US. A separate €2.5 billion JETP deal for Senegal struck in 2023 doesn't involve the US. Uncertainty over the US position is a concern, though won't necessarily impact the ability of other nations to continue their financing efforts, said Rémy Rioux, chief executive officer of Agence Française de Développement, the agency through which France's contribution to South Africa's JETP is being channeled. 'It's a huge stress for the whole system,' he said. --With assistance from Antony Sguazzin, Sheryl Tian Tong Lee, Eddie Spence, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen, Petra Sorge, Eko Listiyorini, Aaron Clark, Ishika Mookerjee and Grace Sihombing. Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback Inside Elon Musk's Attack on the US Government Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison Amazon and SpaceX Want In on India's Satellite Internet Market Elon Musk Inside the Treasury Department Payment System ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Business
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Dollar Advances on Trump's Steel Comment as Trade Jitters Deepen
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar rallied against most major currencies after President Donald Trump said he would announce tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, spurring a renewed rush to the reserve currency. Nice Airport, If You Can Get to It: No Subway, No Highway, No Bridge Sin puente y sin metro: el nuevo aeropuerto de Lima es una debacle The Forgotten French Architect Who Rebuilt Marseille Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate NYC Sees Pedestrian Traffic Increase in Congestion-Pricing Zone The currencies of Norway, Canada and Australia led a drop against the greenback after Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on the imports on Monday, with the duties applying to metal imports from all countries. The euro fell 0.3% and China's offshore yuan slipped 0.2% on the news. 'The risk remains that they incrementally escalate over time,' Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, said of broad US tariffs. 'That could fuel persistent inflation pressures, keep the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts, and reinforce policy divergence factors that support a stronger dollar.' The dollar's gains extended Friday's 0.3% advance after Trump signaled that he would announce reciprocal levies on trading partners, without specifying the details. The world's reserve currency has climbed around 7% from its September low, and has gained against every Group-of-10 peer in the past six months. The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison Inside Elon Musk's Attack on the US Government ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Politics
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Colombia's Petro Loses Another Minister After Cabinet Quarrel
(Bloomberg) -- Colombia's environment minister said she handed in her letter of resignation, the third member of the Gustavo Petro administration to quit, after a chaotic televised cabinet meeting last week ended in recriminations and tears. Nice Airport, If You Can Get to It: No Subway, No Highway, No Bridge Sin puente y sin metro: el nuevo aeropuerto de Lima es una debacle The Forgotten French Architect Who Rebuilt Marseille Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate NYC Sees Pedestrian Traffic Increase in Congestion-Pricing Zone Susana Muhamad announced her decision in an interview Sunday on channel Los Danieles. Jorge Rojas, the head of the presidency's administrative department and Culture Minister Juan David Correa quit earlier. She said more resignations would follow as Petro enters the final stage of his government before 2026 elections. A cabinet reshuffle 'is logical after what happened,' Muhamad said. Along with other officials, in the meeting Muhamad questioned the return to government of Armando Benedetti, a former ambassador to Venezuela, and the promotion of 30-year-old Laura Sarabia to the post of foreign minister. They argued that the two loyalists don't represent the political project that helped make Petro the country's first leftist president. Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo proposed the entire cabinet resign en masse. Muhamad, who was named at the start of the government in 2022, was seen as one of the closest figures to Petro's political project which has made fighting climate change a priority. She led the 16th United Nations Biodiversity Conference, held in Cali, Colombia last year and said in the interview that she's hoping she'll be able to stay in her post until pending agreements discussed at the COP are reached later this month. Even before the televised meeting, cabinet changes had been expected given that anyone wishing to participate in the 2026 elections must leave office one year before the pre-electoral period, which begins around March. Read also: Trump's Return Forces Colombia to Rethink $40 Billion Green Plan --With assistance from Sebastian Boyd. The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison Inside Elon Musk's Attack on the US Government ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Business
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Billionaire Proposes $1 Million Reward for Bolivia's Evo Morales
(Bloomberg) -- Bolivian-American billionaire Marcelo Claure floated the idea of offering a $1 million reward for ex-president Evo Morales, who is the subject of an arrest warrant. Nice Airport, If You Can Get to It: No Subway, No Highway, No Bridge Sin puente y sin metro: el nuevo aeropuerto de Lima es una debacle The Forgotten French Architect Who Rebuilt Marseille Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate NYC Sees Pedestrian Traffic Increase in Congestion-Pricing Zone Claure, in a post on late on Saturday, said he would think about the reward, above a photograph of a wanted poster for Evo Morales, implying, but without saying as much, that the reward would be for information leading to the former president's arrest. Claure, a former COO of SoftBank, now manages his own investment fund and family office. The billionaire has been wading deeper into Bolivia's election cycle, commissioning nationwide polls and saying he will back a yet-to-be-decided right-wing candidate to defeat the ruling socialist MAS party. On Saturday he said that the government of Luis Arce, a former ally of Morales turned rival, is making the country a joke and said that Bolivia was seen as uninvestable. A Bolivian court last month ordered the arrest of the former president, who is being investigated for allegedly having a child with a minor. The government has accused groups linked to Morales of responsibility for attacks on the police. Morales, speaking on his Sunday radio show, responded that Claure was either crazy or foolish, La Razon reported. Morales has not left the Tropico region of Bolivia's Cochabamba since October because of the arrest warrant against him, but he remains politically active in that area. The country is suffering an economic crisis amid shortages of fuel and foreign currency. At the same time, the ruling socialist party is divided between supporters of President Arce and those loyal to Morales. Arce last year was forced to deny that he had faked a coup against his government in a bid to shore up his popularity. The fiscal deficit was near 11% of GDP last year, Finance Minister Marcelo Montenegro said on Thursday, and year-on-year inflation reached 12% in January. The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison Inside Elon Musk's Attack on the US Government ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
