Latest news with #ChietigjBajpaee
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Who won India and Pakistan's four-day war?
After four days of airstrikes and artillery duels, India and Pakistan have called a truce. But how long will the peace last, who won, and what lessons have their generals learned? Roland Oliphant talks to Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, about the real war, the propaganda war and the role of China and the US. Plus, chief foreign commentator David Blair discusses the bromance between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on display in Moscow last week, and asks whether the US's wedge policy to drive the two countries apart is working. Listen to Battle Lines using the audio player in this article or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or your favourite podcast app. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Nikkei Asia
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
China, India quietly bid for global leadership as the US abdicates
Chietigj Bajpaee is senior fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in London. He is co-author of a recent research paper: "How China-India relations will shape Asia and the global order." When China and India are talking about upholding the "rules-based international order" while the U.S. shuns the very order it helped to establish, you know that we are living in a New World Order. In March, I had the opportunity to attend major international conferences in both countries: the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi and the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan. Both events highlighted Beijing and New Delhi's visions of the emerging international order and their places in it.
Telegraph
01-03-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
The real power struggle in Mauritius dwarfing Starmer's Chagos deal
There are no hotels or even shops on the two tiny Mauritian islands of Agaléga. A two-day boat ride away from the mainland, the islands are mostly dense brush, palm trees and the odd stretch of pristine white sand. The 350 or so islanders catch fish, grow coconuts and wait for a supply boat that comes once a month. That was before construction workers began drilling for a 3,000m-long airstrip, large enough for military planes to land on, a jetty big enough for warships to dock at, and two 60m-wide hangers. 'Life is not the same,' Guy Henri, an Agalégan, said. 'They have restricted us from areas in the north.' He said leaders in Mauritius had given away land 'with none of us in mind' and 'telling us nothing'. The suspected military build-up on Agaléga is not the work of China or even Britain, but of India, the latest regional power stamping its mark in the Indian Ocean. Some argue that Agaléga and not Chagos, 1,000 miles away, is at the heart of the real emerging power struggle in the region. As a major maritime highway, one third of the world's cargo traffic and two thirds of the world's oil flows through the region. India has attempted to build a base in the Seychelles, while China has previously broken international law to militarise islands in the wider Indo-Pacific. 'New Delhi has long feared China's pursuit of a so-called 'string of pearls' strategy of encircling India through financing infrastructure projects as a precursor to a more pronounced and permanent Chinese naval presence in the region,' said Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. These fears all come back to the Chagos Islands deal, which Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Donald Trump about during his trip to Washington this week. Behind the scenes, India has for years played a key role in pushing for Mauritius to gain control of the archipelago, saying the transfer of power 'is in line with its principled stand on decolonisation'. And yet, 'it is in India's interest to ensure that the US maintains a military presence in the Indian Ocean amid concerns about China's growing presence', Mr Bajpaee said. Britain last year agreed to relinquish sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius, throwing doubt over the long-term future of a critical US military base on its largest atoll, Diego Garcia. Critics of the deal, including Mr Trump's hawkish allies, have trumpeted concerns over the Chinese threat in Mauritius, whipping up transatlantic panic that losing control of the islands amounted to a strategic surrender to Beijing. But the case of Agaléga, and the dozens of officials and locals The Telegraph spoke to in Mauritius, tells a story of creeping Indian control. 'Mauritius is close to India, not China,' Navin Ramgoolam, the Mauritius prime minister, declared in January. He blamed suggestions of Chinese influence on a 'disinformation campaign in the United States'. It is easy to see where this gets muddled. On the waterfront in Port Louis, the hot sun glints off glass buildings bearing the names of Chinese banks and businesses, while huge Chinese cargo ships dock at its main ports ready to unload floods of Chinese goods. Beijing has forged deep economic ties with the former British colony, using the tax haven as a gateway into Africa. Mauritius was the first – and still the only – African nation to sign a free-trade agreement with Beijing in 2021. Its airport, football stadium, hydroelectric dam and parts of its motorway were all funded and built by Beijing, while Chinese investments in real estate and so-called 'smart cities' (special economic zones) are worth more than $2 billion on the island. New Delhi holds the cards But India's role goes far deeper than money. It's no secret it holds significant military, political, cultural and economic sway over Mauritius. Almost anyone you ask about Chinese influence – whether it be politicians, economists, business owners or taxi drivers – will all tell you that New Delhi holds the cards, not Beijing. The nickname 'Little India' is often thrown around – a term that locals and politicians grimace at, but don't deny. Yet, fears grow that India is gaining too much power as it looks to anchor its dominant position in the south-west Indian Ocean. India has had a close security relationship with Mauritius since the island nation gained independence from the UK in 1968, bolstered by strong ethnic and cultural ties. At least 70 per cent of Mauritius's population are of Indian descent. Indian nationals also hold key positions of power. Mauritius's national security adviser and head of its coast guard belong to India's external intelligence agency and navy. The ships that patrol the country's waters were donated by the Indian military. But there are other powers jostling for influence on the island. 'China, India, the UK, France, Japan and the EU are all involved,' said Prof Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an expert in Asian geopolitics at the Hong Kong Baptist University. 'Mauritius doesn't have any other choice but to pursue a multi-aligned foreign policy,' he said. 'That is its only option and I'd say it plays its cards very well.' However, one 'problematic' player, Prof Cabestan said, could be the interest of Tehran, which keeps touting the two countries 'developing ties'. In recent months, there has been an increase in 'friendly' meetings held between Mauritian ministers and Iranian officials. ''Friends to all, enemies to none' is the policy Mauritius is pursuing,' said Roukaya Kasenally, an associate professor of politics at the University of Mauritius. She said: 'Mauritius is going to try to align further with India without wanting to frustrate China. People are asking: Is Mauritius playing its diplomacy smart enough? Is it playing both China and India in a way that benefits it? 'What happens when India flexes its muscles more?' Agaléga could be what happens. Deal under wraps Despite years of unanswered questions and pushback from the islanders and Mauritian opposition MPs, the shady agreement made between India and Mauritius has never been disclosed. It is something the West has been keeping a cautious eye on. On the one hand, India counterbalances China, which helps Western geopolitical interests. But on the other, India is a friend of Russia – and the two have exceptionally close military ties. Several senior politicians denied the presence of any kind of Indian military infrastructure on the island. Satellite images from December reveal that large-scale construction continues across the north island, while photographs show Indian military surveillance aircraft landing on it. 'If we are talking about India's military role in the Indian Ocean, we have to talk about Agaléga,' Dev Sunassy, the co-leader of the Mauritian political alliance Linion Pep Morisien, said. Calling on the Government to release the terms of the deal, he said: 'Imagine living in London and you're not allowed to go to Liverpool, I need to ask permission and I'm not allowed to go.' The Diego Garcia military base is only just closer to Mauritius as it is to India's southern tip and any malign Chinese influence on the islands would pose a major security threat to New Delhi. Dhananjay Ramful, the foreign minister, stressed last week that India had been 'very supportive to Mauritius in trying to finalise this deal', while New Delhi's diplomats are reportedly working hard in Washington to push it over the line. 'You must realise everyone has an agenda,' a high-ranking Mauritian government official said, dismissing the idea that Beijing wielded any political influence as 'preposterous'. 'We are friends of the UK and India, and you should know how to treat your friends.'
