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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
3 reasons South Korea's election could reshape Asia's alliances
Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is poised to win South Korea's snap election, according to surveys. His victory could shift Seoul's foreign policy away from the US-Japan axis towards closer ties with China. read more Lee Jae-myung (2nd R), the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party, casts his early vote for the upcoming presidential election at a polling station in Seoul as the Presedential elections on May 29, 2025. AFP Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to win South Korea's , according to recent surveys reflecting the mood in the East Asian nation amid ongoing voting on Tuesday (3 June). If Lee wins, the could shift Seoul's foreign policy from a pro-US-Japan axis, and could inch towards closer ties with China. Lee's victory could shape the Asian dynamics His South Korea's position on key issues such as relations with China, nuclear weapons, and North Korea, potentially altering the direction of a key US ally. Pro-US President Yoon and his impeachment Former President Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative who was removed from office after attempting to declare martial law in December, had taken a strong pro-US line. He also received strong backing from Washington, adopted a tough stance on North Korea, and worked to improve ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has often criticised South Korea's close alignment with the US. He has pledged to resume dialogue with North Korea and rejected Yoon's efforts at rapprochement with Japan. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD S Korea should avoid involvement in China-Taiwan conflict: Lee During the campaign, Lee made headlines by saying South Korea should avoid involvement in any potential China-Taiwan conflict, though he later clarified he is not pro-China. Later, Lee softens stance on US In a bid to attract moderate voters, Lee has recently softened his rhetoric. He now voices support for the US alliance and says he will continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US—an alignment Washington views as vital for countering threats from China and North Korea. This comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is drawing global attention with his tariff threats and foreign policy moves. Trump-Lee clash coming? It remains to be seen if Lee will stick to his new positions, and how they might clash with Trump, who has imposed tariffs on South Korea, demanded more payment for the 28,500 US troops there.
Business Recorder
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key U.S. ally
SEOUL: South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major U.S. ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the U.S. alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan. He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing. Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the U.S. alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea. 'The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically,' Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters. 'In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea.' Scepticism in Washington Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China. While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, 'it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency,' Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report. South Korea frontrunner Lee suggests extending US tariff talks Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about U.S. commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances. 'Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States,' said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation. Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return. 'While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon's reconciliation with Japan… his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues,' Klingner said. Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls. Trump relations In an interview with TIME released on Thursday, Lee praised Trump's 'outstanding skills' for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries. 'I believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the foundation of South Korea's diplomacy,' Lee said at a debate on Tuesday. Still, he listed U.S. protectionism as a challenge and said he would not 'unnecessarily' antagonize China and Russia. He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of Trump's policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration. 'But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction,' Moon said. North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle. Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions. However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy. 'It will be very difficult for Lee to reopen the hotlines with North Korea, and the North will not respond to his call for dialogue,' Moon said.
Straits Times
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key US ally
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party, poses for photographs as he casts his early vote for the upcoming presidential election with his supporters at a polling station in Seoul, South Korea, May 29, 2025. Yonhap via REUTERS SEOUL - South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major US ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea. Former president Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the US alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan. He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing. Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the US alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea. 'The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically,' Mr Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters. 'In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea.' Scepticism in Washington Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with US President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China. 'Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States,' said Mr Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation. While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, 'it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency,' Dr Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report. Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president Moon Jae-in left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Mr Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about US commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances. Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return. 'While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon's reconciliation with Japan... his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues,' Mr Klingner said. Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls. Trump relations In an interview with TIME released on May 29, Lee praised Mr Trump's 'outstanding skills' for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries. 'I believe the South Korea-US alliance is the foundation of South Korea's diplomacy,' Lee said at a debate on May 27. Still, he listed US protectionism as a challenge and said he would not 'unnecessarily' antagonise China and Russia. He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Mr Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of US policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Mr Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration. 'But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction,' he said. North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Mr Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle. Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions. However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy. 'It will be very difficult for Lee to reopen the hotlines with North Korea, and the North will not respond to his call for dialogue,' Mr Moon said. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key U.S. ally
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party, poses for photographs as he casts his early vote for the upcoming presidential election with his supporters at a polling station in Seoul, South Korea, May 29, 2025. Yonhap via REUTERS SEOUL - South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major U.S. ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the U.S. alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan. He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing. Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the U.S. alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea. "The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically," Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters. "In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea." SCEPTICISM IN WASHINGTON Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China. "Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation. While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, "it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency," Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report. Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about U.S. commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances. Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return. "While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon's reconciliation with Japan... his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues," Klingner said. Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls. TRUMP RELATIONS In an interview with TIME released on Thursday, Lee praised Trump's "outstanding skills" for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries. "I believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the foundation of South Korea's diplomacy," Lee said at a debate on Tuesday. Still, he listed U.S. protectionism as a challenge and said he would not "unnecessarily" antagonize China and Russia. He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of Trump's policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration. "But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction," Moon said. North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle. Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions. However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy. "It will be very difficult for Lee to reopen the hotlines with North Korea, and the North will not respond to his call for dialogue," Moon said. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key U.S. ally
By Josh Smith SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major U.S. ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the U.S. alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan. He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing. Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the U.S. alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea. "The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically," Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters. "In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea." SCEPTICISM IN WASHINGTON Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China. "Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation. While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, "it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency," Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report. Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about U.S. commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances. Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return. "While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon's reconciliation with Japan... his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues," Klingner said. Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls. TRUMP RELATIONS In an interview with TIME released on Thursday, Lee praised Trump's "outstanding skills" for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries. "I believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the foundation of South Korea's diplomacy," Lee said at a debate on Tuesday. Still, he listed U.S. protectionism as a challenge and said he would not "unnecessarily" antagonize China and Russia. He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of Trump's policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration. "But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction," Moon said. North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle. Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions. However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy. "It will be very difficult for Lee to reopen the hotlines with North Korea, and the North will not respond to his call for dialogue," Moon said.
