Latest news with #ChinaMarketResearchGroup
CNBC
02-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
China has the upper hand in trade war talks, says China Market Research Group's Shaun Rein
China Market Research Group's Shaun Rein, and Waddell and Associates' David Waddell, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss potential talks between the U.S. and China.
CNBC
27-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
More bullish on China's economy now than anytime since 2019: China Market Research Group
Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy.
Forbes
27-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
China Consumer Spending Is Poised To Quicken: Shaun Rein
Shoppers in Shanghai walk through the Nanjing East Road shopping area during Lunar New Year holidays ... More earlier this year. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg Long-time China market researcher Shaun Rein chalked up one of his three international business bestsellers in 2018 with 'The War for China's Wallet,' a look at how to sell to the country's more than one billion consumers. At a time when investors, multinationals and politicians are awaiting a relatively brisk post-pandemic spending recovery in the world's second-biggest economy, Rein has some good news: it's coming soon. 'I've been in China for 28 years. Last year was probably the most bearish I've ever been on the economy,' Rein said in a Zoom interview from Shanghai earlier this month. 'Youth unemployment hit 18.8%. Companies weren't hiring. Fixed asset investment went up only about 0.1 percent. Last July and August were as bad as the height of Covid in terms of confidence and spending. Average retail sales only grew three to four percent year-on-year. People were scared,' even though personal savings totaling $20 trillion, among the world's largest, he said. In the last two months, however, Rein's outlook has reversed. 'This is the most bullish I've been on China in the last six years,' said Rein, the founder and managing director of Shanghai-headquartered China Market Research Group. Harvard-educated Rein's other books include "The End of Cheap China" in 2012, "The End of Copycat China' in 2014, and last year's 'The Split: Finding Opportunities in China's Economy in the New World Older.' A catalyst for his new, upbeat view is that the hardest punches thrown by the Trump administration in this year's trade war have yet to prove very damaging to China's overall economy. 'The Chinese feel that China has beat Trump with the tariff and trade war since Liberation Day, and they had the resolve to push back hard. They were not going to bend down because they wanted to push back over a century of humiliation. China bent down during the Qing Dynasty to the Western imperial powers. China wasn't going to do that again.' 'People rallied together and said, 'We'll deal with lower incomes. We'll deal with bad sales. We want to make Trump bend.' And Trump did,' Rein said. 'By going from 145% to 30% tariffs, Chinese felt they beat Trump. I don't want say there's exuberance in the country, but there's a lot less anxiety than at any time I've seen in the last 7-8 years.' Beyond the U.S.-China exchanges, the launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company whose performance is seen as rivaling America's ChatGPT, signals to Chinese that 'they can overcome crippling sanctions from the United States, that they can be innovative, and that they can beat the Americans.' Also boosting China's spending confidence: a meeting by President Xi Jinping with top private sector business leaders in February showed that Communist Party leader is supporting economic growth and recognizes the private sector's contribution to it. 'You've seen the animal spirits start to come back in China in the last two months," says China ... More Market Research Group Managing Director Shaun Rein. 'You've seen the animal spirits start to come back in China in the last two months. That's reflected in consumer confidence spending. Retail sales went up 5.1% last month. That's so much more than the 3 to 4% before," Rein said. 'It's going to take six months to nine months where they don't have layoffs and in which incomes are stable. But I'm predicting that we're going to see a massive boom beginning consumer spending at the end of 2025 -- because we're not seeing the massive layoffs and salary cuts like we saw in July and August of 2024.' Where do American brands and companies currently fit into the mix? 'Many analysts thought that there would be boycotts from rising nationalism and anti-American sentiment among Chinese consumers' following the U.S. tariff announcements, Rein said. 'We're actually finding that's not true." Largely, he said, 'when Chinese aren't buying American brands, it's not out of anti- American sentiment. It's simply because Chinese companies are out-competing them.' 'The big issue that I think American brands are going to face is that Chinese companies are well-capitalized, aggressive, ambitious, and very well-run,' Rein believes. 'So they're able to offer products 30% cheaper than American brands that are just as good.' In the current price-competitive environment, 'successful brands are able to position themselves as a premium brand. They're focused on excellence, craftsmanship and heritage. That's what American companies need to do. They can't beat Chinese companies on price. The Chinese will always undercut them on price, so they have to double down on their heritage,' and yet at the same time understand how they fit into local lifestyles, Rein said. 'When we interview consumers, one of their biggest criticisms of American brands is the American brands don't localize their local celebrities. They very often will bring in a blonde-haired, blue-eyed woman who doesn't fit the skin type or the look of the Chinese consumer. Right now, Chinese consumers want to buy European and American brands because they're better. They want see to how these brands fit their lifestyle, and they want to see more celebrities who are local.' Successful overseas brands like lulu lemon from Canada are seeing 40 to 50% gains in annual sales, he noted. Adidas has doubled-down on localizing their marketing, and signed up Chinese sports celebrities, Rein continued. 'That's resonated with the Chinese consumer. You really need to get the local celebrities; too many Western brands still aren't doing that.' Chinese consumers "will still pay a premium if they think you're a better value proposition,' he said. Starbucks, a big winner in China before the pandemic, is struggling from price competition after a period of tremendous growth because consumers don't see value relative to local rivals like Luckin Coffee, Rein said. 'Ten years ago, they were luxury in a cup. Now they're just an overpriced cup of coffee,' he said, noting reports that the company is seeking a new China partner. Starbucks named Molly Liu as its sole CEO last year, a position she previously shared with Belinda Wong. Starbucks is facing price competition from local rival Luckin Coffee. Photographer: Qilai ... More Shen/Bloomberg A final tip from Rein to overseas firms: 'You need to do more design from within China. Zara has done a good job that with a lot of their apparel. That's hugely important because there are different preferences on body shape, colors and fabric. The best run companies have started to localize their designs.'
Al Jazeera
18-04-2025
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Did Xi Jinping succeed in winning support against Trump's tariff war?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been on a three-nation tour of Southeast Asia. Xi is seeking to woo the region by projecting China as a source of stability in the face of global uncertainty caused by United States President Donald Trump's tariffs on 185 countries. Southeast Asia is China's largest trading partner. But many countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia, also have strong business relations with the US. Some have already reached out to the White House, hoping to negotiate a deal during the 90-day pause on tariffs. Experts say that by excluding China, Trump's conciliatory measure is aimed at isolating it globally. So, did Xi Jinping succeed in winning over the leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, to rally against Trump's crippling trade barriers? Can Beijing fend off Washington's attempt to isolate it globally by using the tariff negotiations? Presenter: Dareen Abughaida Guests: Shaun Rein – Director, China Market Research Group Deborah Elms – Head of Trade Policy, Hinrich Foundation Paolo von Schirach – President, Global Policy Institute
