16-05-2025
Reds mailbag, Part 1: Wrong hitting coach? Wrong OF? Right way to eat a hot dog?
CINCINNATI — The natives are restless, and with the Reds dropping a series at home to a team that has lost 151 of its last 206 games, it's hard to blame them.
Cincinnati beat the Chicago White Sox 7-1 on Thursday to salvage the final game of its series with just its third victory in the last 12 games. After 45 games, it owns a 21-24 record and is in fourth place in the National League Central, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs.
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There are, naturally, questions. And while some may caution that it's too early to jump to conclusions, some disagree, not only jumping off the Terry Francona bandwagon but then finding a nice, comfortable spot on the train tracks to take a soothing nap.
Because there were so many questions, I'm breaking this into two parts. Let's get to the questions, which have been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.
Would you consider the hiring of Chris Valaika as the lead hitting instructor a disaster? It seems like everybody has gotten worse when it comes to power. Elly De La Cruz doesn't hit home runs or steal bases anymore. They have taken the most electric player in baseball and unplugged him. Make it make sense, please. — Scott S.
No.
One of my favorite quotes I've ever heard from a hitting coach came from Brook Jacoby when he was with the Reds. Jacoby was asked how you teach a player to have an approach like Joey Votto. Jacoby's answer was, 'You don't teach them, you draft them.'
Hitting coaches are hired to be fired. They're easy scapegoats and fresh meat for fans and sports talk radio.
I'd recommend this excellent story from Cody Stavenhagen from January 2023.
One of the best parts is that Cody's lede is about Kevin Seitzer's success and longevity as the hitting coach of the Atlanta Braves. He was fired after the 2024 season, his 10th with the team. Within two months, he was hired as the Seattle Mariners' hitting coach. So far, the Mariners offense has been one of the surprises of the season. Is that because of Seitzer? Despite Seitzer?
Get hot, 44. @ellylacocoa18
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 15, 2025
As for De La Cruz, he has eight home runs through 45 games. Last year, he had nine home runs through 45 games. In 2023, he hit six home runs through 45 games.
In light of the offensive struggles, are there any outfielders in the pipeline who could help? Have you heard any rumblings about the team contacting other teams looking to upgrade, or are we going to rely on a turnaround by the players on the roster? — Stephen S.
With the surplus of young talent we keep hearing about in the minors, why don't we trade for an outfielder who can hit .275 with some pop? Guys like Will Benson and Connor Joe certainly aren't getting it done — Kevin H.
This was a popular refrain throughout the offseason and even spring training. Why didn't the Reds acquire better outfield options?
So, just going by the expectations set in the question, I went ahead and looked at the numbers.
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Last year, according to FanGraphs, there were 13 qualified outfielders who hit .275. My follow-up question would be, what constitutes 'some pop'?
Would that be 25 homers? Of those 13 outfielders who hit .275, exactly three — Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Juan Soto — had 25 or more home runs. Of those, Alvarez is the only one who hasn't reached free agency and the Astros signed him to a six-year, $115 million extension in 2022. Although … he's injured and hitting .210/.306/.340 with three homers in 29 games. Alvarez is the pauper of the group, with Judge and Soto combining for $1.125 billion in salary over the lives of their contracts.
Want to go on slugging percentage? Last year, the average slugging percentage of all players in baseball was .399. Let's play with round numbers and say .400 is average pop, .450 is 'some pop' while .500 is pop. Of the 13 qualified outfielders last season with at least a .275 batting average, nine had a .450 or better slug and four had .500 or better.
Entering Thursday, there were 19 qualified outfielders with a .275 or better average. Of those, 14 had a .450 or better slugging percentage and nine were .500 or better. If you lower the batting average to .274, you would have two Reds outfielders — Gavin Lux (.291) and TJ Friedl (.274).
So, you want to lower the standards a bit? Well, the qualified outfielder with the 14th-best batting average last year hit .273/.325/.409 with 20 home runs. Would that qualify? I'll say even if it's not the exact parameters set out, I'd take that player. That leads to the question of what package the team dealing the player would accept? While the Reds' system is pretty deep, I'm just not sure I see a deal that makes sense for the Seattle Mariners, owners of that player, to deal Julio Rodriguez to the Reds.
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Let's dig even further — who were the top free-agent outfielders this offseason according to The Athletic's Big Board, what kind of paydays did they get and how are they performing (all stats through Wednesday's games)? There were nine outfielders among the top 40 free agents. I honestly don't know the answers as I type and start to research it, but I've got a hunch.
In comparison, the Reds added outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year deal worth $5 million. Hays has had two stints on the IL already, but in the 19 games he's played, he is hitting .306/.354/.569 with five home runs.
Lux, who has started 23 games in the outfield for the Reds, has played 41 games overall and is hitting .291/.383/.397 with one homer. He had two hits, a walk and an RBI on Thursday.
Honestly, when looking around, it's hard to argue with the production the Reds are getting from the outfielders they acquired. Yes, it's still early. But if it's too early to praise, perhaps it's too early to bury?
I can't believe that Pete Rose would get enough Hall of Fame votes if he were on the ballot for BBWAA members to vote on. What's your sense of how much support Rose has from members of the HOF's veterans committee? I suppose if the powers that be want to make it happen, they could stack it with former teammates and friendly faces. Is that where we are heading? — Sean L.
This is not backed by any type of scientific polling, just that I've talked to a lot of people and gotten a lot of opinions from writers, former players and executives, the three groups who comprise the Eras Committees.
The Hall of Fame board of directors appoints the 16 members. The group that elected Dave Parker and Dick Allen in December included six Hall of Fame members (Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Tony Pérez, Lee Smith, Ozzie Smith and Joe Torre), five executives (Sandy Alderson, Terry McGuirk, Dayton Moore, Arte Moreno and Brian Sabean) and five veteran media members and historians (Bob Elliott, Leslie Heaphy, Steve Hirdt, Dick Kaegel and Larry Lester). That will not be the same group that rules on Rose, even if there may be some overlap. The group that decides Rose's fate will not be determined until 2027.
I believe Rose would have a better shot with the writers than he would any committee selected by the Hall of Fame.
I also see the accusations that Rose had a sexual relationship with a minor hurting him more with younger writers than older ones.
It was the Hall of Fame that instituted the ruling taking players on the permanently ineligible list out of consideration for the Hall in 1991, right before Rose was going on the ballot. I'm not sure what's happened in the 34 years since that would change that stance. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on Rose getting his day in Cooperstown in the foreseeable future.
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With Memorial Day not too far away, how do you gussy up a grilled hot dog? — Ed H.
I like a dog with a little mustard and, yes, a little ketchup. I will gladly take the heat from our recent visitors from Chicago, but I like the way the sweetness of ketchup (Heinz, none of this fancy crap) pairs with the tartness of a simple yellow mustard. Also, I'm a huge fan of the split-top bun, especially when steamed.
(Photo of Elly De La Cruz and Gavin Lux: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
