Latest news with #ChristianJakob
The Advertiser
21 hours ago
- Science
- The Advertiser
Clue to record-breaking temperatures in clearer skies
Disappearing clouds are contributing to faster global warming and tumbling temperature records. Scientists have seen a decline of somewhere between 1.5 per cent and three per cent in the world's storm cloud zones each decade over the past 24 years. The shrinking coverage, observed by a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-led team, results in less sunlight reflected back into space, allowing more in to boost global warming. Overall clearer skies, a trend driven by evolving wind patterns, the expanding tropics and other shifts linked to climate change, is now thought to be the largest contributor to the planet's higher absorption of solar radiation. Christian Jakob, a co-author of the study and director at the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the major heating consequences of shrinking cloud cover was now evident. "It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action," Professor Jakob said. Last year was the hottest on record, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, clocking in at about 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average. A single year above 1.5C is not enough to breach the Paris Agreement, however, as the global pact's goals are based on long-term averages measured over decades. The UN weather agency expects temperatures to keep rising, with a 70 per cent chance the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C. Unprecedented ocean heating has been felt particularly acutely in the waters surrounding Australia, leading to coral bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms. The elevated rate of warming is due to global greenhouse gas emissions holding at all-time highs, largely due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study released on Thursday. If current emissions trends continue, the report prepared by dozens of scientists from around the world says there will be just over three years left in the carbon budget to achieve 1.5C of heating. Policymakers and experts have gathered in Germany for a mid-year convention ahead of the main UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil scheduled for November. Disappearing clouds are contributing to faster global warming and tumbling temperature records. Scientists have seen a decline of somewhere between 1.5 per cent and three per cent in the world's storm cloud zones each decade over the past 24 years. The shrinking coverage, observed by a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-led team, results in less sunlight reflected back into space, allowing more in to boost global warming. Overall clearer skies, a trend driven by evolving wind patterns, the expanding tropics and other shifts linked to climate change, is now thought to be the largest contributor to the planet's higher absorption of solar radiation. Christian Jakob, a co-author of the study and director at the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the major heating consequences of shrinking cloud cover was now evident. "It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action," Professor Jakob said. Last year was the hottest on record, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, clocking in at about 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average. A single year above 1.5C is not enough to breach the Paris Agreement, however, as the global pact's goals are based on long-term averages measured over decades. The UN weather agency expects temperatures to keep rising, with a 70 per cent chance the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C. Unprecedented ocean heating has been felt particularly acutely in the waters surrounding Australia, leading to coral bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms. The elevated rate of warming is due to global greenhouse gas emissions holding at all-time highs, largely due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study released on Thursday. If current emissions trends continue, the report prepared by dozens of scientists from around the world says there will be just over three years left in the carbon budget to achieve 1.5C of heating. Policymakers and experts have gathered in Germany for a mid-year convention ahead of the main UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil scheduled for November. Disappearing clouds are contributing to faster global warming and tumbling temperature records. Scientists have seen a decline of somewhere between 1.5 per cent and three per cent in the world's storm cloud zones each decade over the past 24 years. The shrinking coverage, observed by a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-led team, results in less sunlight reflected back into space, allowing more in to boost global warming. Overall clearer skies, a trend driven by evolving wind patterns, the expanding tropics and other shifts linked to climate change, is now thought to be the largest contributor to the planet's higher absorption of solar radiation. Christian Jakob, a co-author of the study and director at the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the major heating consequences of shrinking cloud cover was now evident. "It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action," Professor Jakob said. Last year was the hottest on record, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, clocking in at about 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average. A single year above 1.5C is not enough to breach the Paris Agreement, however, as the global pact's goals are based on long-term averages measured over decades. The UN weather agency expects temperatures to keep rising, with a 70 per cent chance the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C. Unprecedented ocean heating has been felt particularly acutely in the waters surrounding Australia, leading to coral bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms. The elevated rate of warming is due to global greenhouse gas emissions holding at all-time highs, largely due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study released on Thursday. If current emissions trends continue, the report prepared by dozens of scientists from around the world says there will be just over three years left in the carbon budget to achieve 1.5C of heating. Policymakers and experts have gathered in Germany for a mid-year convention ahead of the main UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil scheduled for November. Disappearing clouds are contributing to faster global warming and tumbling temperature records. Scientists have seen a decline of somewhere between 1.5 per cent and three per cent in the world's storm cloud zones each decade over the past 24 years. The shrinking coverage, observed by a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-led team, results in less sunlight reflected back into space, allowing more in to boost global warming. Overall clearer skies, a trend driven by evolving wind patterns, the expanding tropics and other shifts linked to climate change, is now thought to be the largest contributor to the planet's higher absorption of solar radiation. Christian Jakob, a co-author of the study and director at the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the major heating consequences of shrinking cloud cover was now evident. "It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action," Professor Jakob said. Last year was the hottest on record, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, clocking in at about 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average. A single year above 1.5C is not enough to breach the Paris Agreement, however, as the global pact's goals are based on long-term averages measured over decades. The UN weather agency expects temperatures to keep rising, with a 70 per cent chance the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C. Unprecedented ocean heating has been felt particularly acutely in the waters surrounding Australia, leading to coral bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms. The elevated rate of warming is due to global greenhouse gas emissions holding at all-time highs, largely due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study released on Thursday. If current emissions trends continue, the report prepared by dozens of scientists from around the world says there will be just over three years left in the carbon budget to achieve 1.5C of heating. Policymakers and experts have gathered in Germany for a mid-year convention ahead of the main UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil scheduled for November.
Perth Now
a day ago
- Science
- Perth Now
Clue to record-breaking temperatures in clearer skies
Disappearing clouds are contributing to faster global warming and tumbling temperature records. Scientists have seen a decline of somewhere between 1.5 per cent and three per cent in the world's storm cloud zones each decade over the past 24 years. The shrinking coverage, observed by a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-led team, results in less sunlight reflected back into space, allowing more in to boost global warming. Overall clearer skies, a trend driven by evolving wind patterns, the expanding tropics and other shifts linked to climate change, is now thought to be the largest contributor to the planet's higher absorption of solar radiation. Christian Jakob, a co-author of the study and director at the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the major heating consequences of shrinking cloud cover was now evident. "It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action," Professor Jakob said. Last year was the hottest on record, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, clocking in at about 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average. A single year above 1.5C is not enough to breach the Paris Agreement, however, as the global pact's goals are based on long-term averages measured over decades. The UN weather agency expects temperatures to keep rising, with a 70 per cent chance the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C. Unprecedented ocean heating has been felt particularly acutely in the waters surrounding Australia, leading to coral bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms. The elevated rate of warming is due to global greenhouse gas emissions holding at all-time highs, largely due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study released on Thursday. If current emissions trends continue, the report prepared by dozens of scientists from around the world says there will be just over three years left in the carbon budget to achieve 1.5C of heating. Policymakers and experts have gathered in Germany for a mid-year convention ahead of the main UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil scheduled for November.
ABC News
a day ago
- Science
- ABC News
The world's shrinking cloud cover is driving record temperatures, new research finds
The world's cloud cover has been shrinking significantly and may help explain the extraordinary heat of the last two years, new research led by NASA found. The research, published this month, analysed satellite observations during the past 24 years. It found areas over the ocean where storm clouds often form have dwindled by between 1.5 and 3 per cent per decade. It may not sound like much, but Monash University professor Christian Jakob, who leads the ARC's 21st Century Weather Centre of Excellence, said that loss has amounted to a significant portion of sunlight being absorbed by the Earth instead of being reflected out to space. "So that increase is what's providing extra warming to the climate in addition to the greenhouse effect, that's also increasing," Professor Jakob, who was a contributing author to the study, said. He said the new finding could even help explain one of the big climate mysteries of the past couple of years. The years 2023 and 2024 saw global average temperature reach record highs — each becoming the hottest year on record, and by a long way. While most of the extraordinary heat could be explained by greenhouse gas emissions and the presence of the El Niño climate driver, there was still a margin at the top that puzzled climate scientists. Scientists were looking into several possible explanations, including changes to shipping regulations and the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption in January 2022. However, Professor Jakob said the change in clouds amounted to a significantly larger difference. "What we found is the effect of clouds, and the shrinking of highly reflective clouds, is much, much larger," he said. "I would say it's at least three or four times the influence of the other effects that have been put forward. "So, while we can't say with certainty that it's the reason 2024 was so warm, it's fair to assume it contributed to the extraordinary warmth over the last few years." The loss of clouds has to do with the changes in wind patterns, as a response to climate change, according to Professor Jakob. This has led to a growth of the subtropical regions — where cloud is generally more sparse and patchy — while stormy regions have retracted toward the North and South poles. These stormy regions, to the north and south, contain extensive cloud cover, which is highly reflective, sending sunlight back into space. "The patchy clouds … these are the clouds that we are getting more of, while these intense grey skies, where more or less the entire sky is covered, are reducing," he said. "And so, therefore, the area of the clouds that are very good at reflecting sunlight is getting smaller. And the area of the clouds that are not so good at reflecting sunlight is getting bigger." Professor Jakob said this change was particularly evident at the boundary of these climate zones, including to the south of Australia. "The most affected regions are actually over the oceans," he said. "The ocean is an extremely good storer of energy, and it warms in the process of storing that energy. "So, as the clouds no longer reflect the sunlight, it now reaches the ocean surface. "The ocean takes up that energy that comes from the sun, and the sea surface temperatures go up, and that has major implications for how weather systems behave, but also major implications for the general warming of the planet." Clouds are a really important part of the Earth's climate system, yet they remain one of the most challenging features in our climate models. Professor Jakob said one of the keys to understanding them better was to understand changes to our weather. "The clouds don't just magically change; they change because climate change changes how weather systems behave," he said. "In this case, where they (the weather systems producing high cloud cover) occur is pushed further towards the poles." Investigating changes in our weather and climate systems is the main aim of ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather. He said that for communities to be better prepared for a future climate, a shift in thinking from climate change to weather change needed to take place. "The poster child numbers we use to describe climate change are things like global mean temperature. Global mean temperature is really a very nice and very clear indicator that the climate system is affected by humans," he said. "However, when's the last time you've planned a barbecue on a forecast of global mean temperature? "What are we actually interested in in terms of the impacts that change in global mean temperature will have on us? And that's of course the weather." He said we had a good knowledge about how climate change was currently affecting temperatures on the ground and several types of extreme weather, but there was still a lot to learn.
