Latest news with #ChristophRieger
Business Recorder
27-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Euro zone yields edge down as tariff-turbulence ebbs
LONDON: Euro zone government bond yields dipped on Tuesday, ahead of a raft of regional inflation readings this week and as investors digested the latest reversal in US tariff policy towards the European Union. The yield on 10-year German Bunds, which serve as a benchmark for the wider euro zone market, was down 1.1 basis point at 2.55% while that on 30-year debt eased 1.7 bps to 3.062%, although the drops lagged the declines seen in long-dated Japanese and US bond yields. With inflation numbers on both sides of the Atlantic due this week, there could be room for another price rally, according to Commerzbank head of rates Christoph Rieger. 'Further bullish hopes are pinned on this week's inflation figures, but the first leads from France today may not fulfil these expectations,' Rieger said. 'In contrast to the pending German and euro zone numbers, our economists expect a small increase in the headline rate, which could be above consensus. With lower German numbers still expected by the end of the week, which could take the headline rate back to 2%, we suggest buying into potential dips at 10y Bund yields around 2.6%,' he said. Yields on the two-year Schatz were fairly flat on the day at 1.794%. Last week, two-year yields touched their lowest in nearly a month, as investors showed a preference for non-US debt, given the unpredictability of US tariff policies and the growing concern over the long-term finances of the US government. Euro zone yields nudge higher, long-dated bonds under pressure Two-year yields are typically more reactive to shifts in expectations for European Central Bank monetary policy, yet much of the focus lately has been on trade uncertainty and government finances. Elsewhere, yields on 10-year Italian, French and Spanish bonds edged lower by around 1-2 bps, reflecting a relative sense of stability to trading on Tuesday.
Mint
27-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Euro zone yields edge down as tariff-turbulence ebbs
LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields dipped on Tuesday, ahead of a raft of regional inflation readings this week and as investors digested the latest reversal in U.S. tariff policy towards the European Union. The yield on 10-year German Bunds, which serve as a benchmark for the wider euro zone market, was down 1.1 basis point at 2.55% while that on 30-year debt eased 1.7 bps to 3.062%, although the drops lagged the declines seen in long-dated Japanese and U.S. bond yields. With inflation numbers on both sides of the Atlantic due this week, there could be room for another price rally, according to Commerzbank head of rates Christoph Rieger. "Further bullish hopes are pinned on this week's inflation figures, but the first leads from France today may not fulfil these expectations," Rieger said. "In contrast to the pending German and euro zone numbers, our economists expect a small increase in the headline rate, which could be above consensus. With lower German numbers still expected by the end of the week, which could take the headline rate back to 2%, we suggest buying into potential dips at 10y Bund yields around 2.6%," he said. Yields on the two-year Schatz were fairly flat on the day at 1.794%. Last week, two-year yields touched their lowest in nearly a month, as investors showed a preference for non-U.S. debt, given the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies and the growing concern over the long-term finances of the U.S. government. Two-year yields are typically more reactive to shifts in expectations for European Central Bank monetary policy, yet much of the focus lately has been on trade uncertainty and government finances. Elsewhere, yields on 10-year Italian, French and Spanish bonds edged lower by around 1-2 bps, reflecting a relative sense of stability to trading on Tuesday. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
Wall Street Journal
06-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Treasury Yields Rise, Curve Steepens
0618 GMT – U.S. Treasury yields extend their rise in the early European trade, pulled by the long end of the curve ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting outcome on Wednesday. The latest U.S. employment data is constraining the Federal Reserve, and Pimco doesn't expect the Fed to cut rates until later this year, economist Tiffany Wilding says in a note. 'That would come once data shows a concrete slowdown or contraction in the labor market,' she says. The two-year Treasury yield is trading 1 bp higher at 3.845%; the 10-year Treasury yield rises 3 bps to last trade at 4.370%, while the 30-year Treasury yield increases 4 bps to last trade at 4.865%, according to LSEG data. ( 0612 GMT – The long end of the German Bund curve is facing supply pressure from a syndicated tap of the August 2056 Bund, says Commerzbank Research's Christoph Rieger in a note. 'In Bunds, the announcement of the second and final syndication for this year, the 30-year Bund tap, is adding to the ultralong steepening bias,' the head of rates and credit research says. The 10-to-30-year segment of the German government bond curve is hitting its steepest level since 2021, he says, referring to the widening gap between the 10- and 30-year yields. The 10-to-30-year German yield spread is around 46 basis points, according to Tradeweb. Besides the syndicated tap, Germany will also hold a 4.5 billion euro auction for the April 2030 Bobl. (
Zawya
28-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Markets boost bets on ECB rate cuts on weak data, tariff fears
Money markets increased their bets on European Central Bank easing, with short-dated yields dropping to levels last seen before Germany announced its biggest ever spending package, as investors shifted focus to U.S. tariffs and weak economic data. Inflation in March came in far below forecasts in two of the euro zone's largest economies, while consumer expectations for price growth remained muted. Money markets priced in an 80% chance of a 25 basis points ECB rate cut in April from around 50% a week ago and a depo rate at 1.9% from around 1.95% late on Thursday. German 2-year yield, more sensitive to the ECB policy rates, dropped to 2.028%, its lowest level since March 4. It was last down 3 bps at 2.04%. On March 5, German parties reached an agreement for a massive ramp-up in fiscal spending on infrastructure and defence investment, leading to the biggest rise in German long-dated yields in decades. "It seems likely that the ECB will conclude that the downside risks from escalating trade tensions are materialising," said Christoph Rieger, head of rates and credit research at Commerzbank, referring to the impact of tariffs on the central bank policy path. More weak economic data, including inflation and jobs figures, supported Friday's drop in euro area bond yields. The number of people out of work in Germany rose in March at the fastest rate since October of 2024, as Europe's largest economy is still battling with persistent weakness and structural headwinds in industry. Meanwhile, morale among Italian businesses and consumers slumped in March, as geopolitical tensions and the prospect of U.S. trade tariffs clouded the outlook. German consumer sentiment was broadly unchanged, with a focus on saving highlighting uncertainty among households. "The confidence boost that German businesses had after the elections and the fiscal U-turn which followed has not been entirely embraced by consumers," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "Looking ahead, the gradual weakening of the labour market looks set to continue," he added. Italy's 10-year yields dropped 5 bps to 3.83%. The yield gap between Italian BTPs and German Bunds - a gauge of risk premium investors ask to hold Italian debt - rose to 110.5 bps. Citi flagged that "the tightening of BTP-Bund spread, even as Bund swap spreads richen, might be short-lived due to growth implications of tariffs and already tight spread levels." The yield spread between French and German bonds stood at 69.5 basis points, at the lower end of its recent range. Analysts argued that OATs faced a return of political risk starting next week that might determine whether early elections are called after July. Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, will on Monday learn her fate in an embezzlement trial that could upend French politics if she is barred from running in the 2027 presidential election. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, editing by Alex Richardson)
