2 days ago
Patriotism vs posturing: The real battle for Bihar has begun
Operation Sindoor has upended Bihar's political terrain, transforming a routine electoral fight into a high-stakes clash between unapologetic patriotism and political posturing. Prime Minister Modi's fiery rhetoric and nationalistic messaging have struck a deep chord in a state where voters rever military might and national pride. As Nitish Kumar fades and Chirag Paswan eyes the future, the NDA's internal unity remains its biggest challenge—and greatest opportunity. The INDIA bloc, still fumbling with mixed messages and confused alliances, risks alienating key constituencies, especially in rural and border areas. With women voters, youth, and even sections of Muslims responding to nationalism, old caste calculations are no longer enough. Populist promises from Tejaswi Yadav may grab headlines, but it is the emotion unleashed by Sindoor that could sway ballots. The 2025 Bihar election isn't just about power—it's a referendum on identity, vision, and the nation's soul
Operation Sindoor has redrawn the political battlefield of Bihar. What was once a predictable clash of caste-based alliances is now being recast as a confrontation between nationalism and perceived political opportunism. The upcoming assembly elections are no longer just about governance—they're about identity, pride, and clarity of purpose.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Chun Chun ke Marenge' declaration from Bihar and his recent references to how the Sindoor of Indian women turned into a missile against Pakistan have reignited patriotic fervour. For the NDA, this surge of nationalism is a potential game-changer.
In a state where voters respond powerfully to military heroism and national security, the INDIA bloc's hesitation, silence, or criticism of Operation Sindoor may be seen as a betrayal, especially in rural and semi-urban constituencies.
But sentiment alone won't win an election. The NDA still has a complicated internal equation to manage. The BJP's prospects depend significantly on maintaining unity and clarity of leadership. Nitish Kumar, once a towering figure in Bihar's politics, now finds himself on the back foot.
His popularity has dropped to around 18%, his public appearances are rare, and his gaffes have only fuelled speculation about his fitness to continue. The opposition mocks him as the 'Bimar CM of a BIMARU state.'
This vacuum creates an opportunity for a new generation of leadership. Bihar's youth, increasingly politically aware and aspirational, particularly those eyeing defence and government jobs, are inclined towards parties with a strong nationalistic and development-oriented image.
This makes the BJP's potential promotion of Chirag Paswan a tantalising prospect. Paswan has declared his intent to shift focus from national to state politics, hinting at a possible leadership transition post-election. But declaring a CM face now could create tensions with Nitish's JD(U), so BJP may play the waiting game.
Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, the INDIA bloc's youth mascot, is gearing up with populist promises like the Mai Bahini Maan Yojana (Rs 2500 monthly to women), subsidised LPG, and free electricity. Whether these freebies can match the emotional and nationalistic connect forged by Operation Sindoor remains to be seen.
Over the last two decades, women voters have emerged as a decisive force in Bihar politics. Since 2010, their turnout has consistently outstripped that of men. Recognising this, the NDA has doubled down on gender-targeted welfare and infrastructure.
Mahila Haats, pink toilets, women-only buses, subsidies for e-rickshaws, rental assistance for female cops, and reservations in BSRTC jobs are ongoing schemes. Educational schemes like free cycles, uniforms, and reserved seats in medical and engineering colleges further aim to consolidate the female vote bank.
Still, Tejaswi's targeted cash handouts could lure some segments of this electorate, particularly in economically vulnerable zones. The battle for women's votes may end up being the election's hidden decider.
Bihar's political DNA has long been dominated by caste arithmetic. Traditionally, JD(U) leaned on Kurmi-Koeri (upper backward classes) support, RJD on Yadav-Muslim votes, and BJP on upper castes and urban voters. But these boundaries are blurring. Operation Sindoor, and the strong reaction it evoked across demographics, may shift traditional loyalties. Even Yadav and Pasmanda (deprived and downtrodden) Muslim voters in border areas may reconsider their stance if they perceive the INDIA bloc's stance as undermining national pride.
Added to that a deeper fatigue is also settling in among sections of the Muslim electorate, weary of being used as mere vote banks. Modi's push to reach out to Pasmanda Muslims and the nationalist tone of Operation Sindoor could further erode the INDIA bloc's Muslim consolidation.
Several smaller but significant players are poised to split votes and inject volatility into the election. AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, is riding a wave of popularity among young Muslims following his fiery support for Operation Sindoor and denunciation of Pakistan's misadventures.
While the party has sent a lukewarm proposal to RJD for alliance, insiders see this as more about optics than intent. From its current tally of five seats, AIMIM could double its count—largely at the INDIA bloc's expense.
Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj, contesting all 243 seats, is running a campaign unlike any other. He doesn't ask for votes; instead, he offers solutions. 'Even I might betray you if I win—so don't believe anyone blindly,' he tells voters. His emphasis on governance and local problem-solving may not win him power, but it may cut into the anti-incumbency vote, hurting INDIA bloc more than the NDA.
Left parties continue to fade into irrelevance, with their vote share shrinking rapidly. Bihar is not a monolith. Regional nuances will heavily influence the outcome: North Bihar, especially Seemanchal and Mithila, is fluid and unpredictable, with AIMIM, RJD, and BJP all vying for dominance.
Central Bihar could become the swing zone. If the NDA remains united, it holds the edge. Border districts—affected most by Pakistan's misadventures—may swing towards the NDA due to patriotic sentiment and the emotional aftershocks of Operation Sindoor.
Early speculation suggests the NDA could bag between 125 and 150 seats in the 243-member Assembly. The INDIA bloc may secure around 70, while the remainder would be split among AIMIM, Jan Suraj, independents, and possibly the Left. A party or alliance needs 122 seats for a simple majority.
Should the NDA cross the threshold comfortably, the post-poll narrative could shift to leadership. Chirag Paswan, youthful and ambitious, is a natural contender. With Nitish Kumar fading, the BJP could spring a surprise, especially if it helps maintain unity within the alliance while projecting a fresh face for Bihar's future.
Rahul Gandhi has made Bihar a key focus, visiting the state more than any other in recent months. But his continued jibes against the army and mocking tone toward the Prime Minister have cost him dearly in the hyper-nationalist mood post-Sindoor. The Congress, far from rejuvenated, is dragging the INDIA bloc into confusion and controversy.
His rhetoric—blaming Modi for surrendering to Trump, downplaying Operation Sindoor as a 'chutput war,' and alleging massive Indian casualties—risks alienating patriotic voters and playing directly into the BJP's hands.
Poll analysts estimate that around 35 per cent of Bihar's electorate is committedly anti-BJP. This gives the INDIA bloc a base—but not an edge. With Modi's personal popularity, the emotional impact of Operation Sindoor, a robust women-centric agenda, and a fragmented opposition, the NDA holds a visible advantage.
But Bihar is a land of last-minute swings and layered loyalties. The real battle will be decided by how effectively the NDA manages its internal dynamics, and how smartly the INDIA bloc reinvents its narrative—if at all.
In 2025, Bihar won't just vote for governance. It will vote for identity, vision, and direction. Operation Sindoor didn't just change military dynamics—it may well have changed the political future of one of India's most complex states.
(The author is former Chief Editor of The Hans India)
