Latest news with #Clausewitz
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Putin trolling Trump?
US president's attempted reset of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv either failed or was just a show. From Russian leader's comments after Monday's chat, it's clear only a military defeat can stop him In the early 19th century, one of the founding fathers of modern war studies, German General and military historian Carl von Clausewitz commented, on the Napoleonic Wars, that '[t]he conqueror is always peace-loving […]; he would much prefer to march into our state silently […].' This has been and remains an observation that applies to most military aggressions. Though simple and understandable, Clausewitz's idea was initially ignored by most Europeans when interpreting Moscow's behaviour after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014. Read full story on TOI+ Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
Express Tribune
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
The road ahead
Listen to article The military, especially the air force, made the nation proud. But what is done, is in the past, however stellar it was. Today and tomorrow is another day with its own set of challenges. Now is the time to know and be ready for what is possible, what beckons and what must take our wholesome attention. To celebrate, to learn, to dissect and analyse will be in the weeks ahead. I promise my readers I will return to those in due course. But what stares in our face is immediate and must consume our absolute attention even as the armed forces of Pakistan continue to keep a keen watch over an enemy smartening from his losses and a bloody nose that it got from the valiant armed forces of Pakistan and its absolutely amazing people who went out in throngs on streets to defeat what the enemy had intended to suppress and subdue. It helps to remind what militaries do: "war is a continuation of politics by other means" — Clausewitz. What it translates into is that when the military instrument is applied it must create 'space' for politics to pursue its aims using the space opened through application of military force. We must differentiate between wars too: there are wars of annihilation as was mostly the case in the medieval era, as well as till WWII when nations were either demolished or recreated out of ashes but to destroy them to ruin was what signaled the end. Not so in the modern era when the space for war with the kind which is prevalent is greatly restricted — Russia despite being a nuclear power cannot seem to end what it began in Ukraine, a country of little military means. It is also because of the world we live in. When one nation goes down it disrupts and demolishes the entire construct of markets and supply chains which have tied the world into a coexistent entity — a safety against annihilation. Even hate, contempt and venom must have limits. Clausewitz thus retains his credence. The skirmish with India has opened the space for politics to bring back the issues that plague Pakistan's progress and development into international spotlight. What had been reduced to bilateral whims of India after Simla has found renewed relevance around the world and in the Security Council at the UN. It is up to Pakistan now to benefit from this opportunity. Balochistan continues to suffer from a foreign-based, foreign engineered, and a foreign financed campaign against the state of Pakistan and its unity. The Jaffar Express incident is too recent to forget. India is the foreign master perpetuating this insurgency as borne by the two apprehended Indian agents in Balochistan — one a serving Naval Commander of the Indian intelligence in Pakistan's custody. Indian leadership has publicly claimed its role in fomenting trouble for Pakistan in Balochistan. Similarly, Indian hand in encouraging terrorist activities by the TTP — a proscribed terrorist group based in Afghanistan - against the people and the state of Pakistan continues to consume our precious resource and focus. They instigate, encourage and finance terror in Pakistan. This must come up as Pakistan's imperative concern when we sit down to talk with India following the ceasefire. We want guarantees and assurances that such a heinous resort of a neighbour will be promptly dispensed with. Wild allegations by India on inverse charges of terrorism in made-to-order enactments in Kashmir and elsewhere against Pakistan will not wash without substantive proof and fair investigation. We just came out of a war costing precious lives and losses in billions of dollars even as Indian government posts flyers with handsome remuneration to anyone who can provide information about the incident or the possible attackers. The irony is not lost. India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty which was brokered by the World Bank which per its statutes cannot be suspended, held in abeyance, or abrogated by any one side. It is the lifeline of Pakistan and an 'act of war' if Pakistan's right to the three western rivers and its waters is in any way impeded, redirected or tampered with. This will need to be reinstated in its original jurisdiction without exception to any of its clauses and contents for any other negotiation to begin, even before the two sides agree to meet. Any provision of the Treaty that Indian wants reopened for discussion can only be undertaken when the Treaty is in place status-quo ante. Pakistan too may like to renew considerations of its share in the three eastern rivers considering changes in water availability, population explosion and threats of food insecurity in areas originally fed by these three rivers. Similarly, the free flow of rivers in areas currently occupied by India in Jammu and Kashmir will need to be ensured in renewed commitment and verifiable processes. If Indian-Occupied Kashmir reeks of unease and disquiet despite the presence of over 700,000 military and paramilitary personnel, there must be a more founding and sustaining cause at its root. The disputed status of the region since 1948 and the unactioned UNSC Resolutions that detail the need to honour and respect the right of the Kashmiris to determine their future through a plebiscite explain why the people of Kashmir remain alienated and dispossessed. That a fight for freedom by those oppressed by a forced occupation is enshrined as a right in the UN Charter. That it turns ugly on occasions is inherent in long struggles for freedom. To India it is terrorism; to the Kashmiris, their fight for freedom from forced occupation; to Pakistan it is a legacy issue used by an odious neighbour to label Pakistan for India's own failure to give Kashmiris their right to self-determination. Kashmir needs urgent international attention to resolve the dispute per UN Resolutions and the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. Kashmir is critical to peace in this region and a nuclear flashpoint between India and Pakistan as has evinced in this and every conflict; except this time, it came much closer to nuclear blows. The unstable environment and the ensuing militancy, the water dispute, and the persisting conflict between two nuclear neighbours has its roots in one source — Kashmir. If the world can resolve Kashmir — because India would not do so on its own - we can gift peace to this entire region and hope and promise to its two billion people. The US has offered to help find this noble end; may she stay the course. Pakistan displayed remarkable capability as a nation to face off India's aggression. Its armed forces reinforced the conventional deterrence in no uncertain way. Perhaps India will learn its lesson. At its core though is strategic deterrence through Pakistan's nuclear weapons. It is imperative that this foundation is stoutly preserved against any inducement in the name of safety and security through alternate mechanisms of any kind. Pakistan cannot be divested of physical possession and instant access to its nuclear weapons.
Express Tribune
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
AI and the changing character of warfare
Listen to article The nature of war — defined by violence, chance and rationality — remains constant while the character of war — influenced by geopolitics, geo-economics, societal norms and technology — is prone to constant change. Over the decades, despite experiencing several Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMA) — marked by the invention of gunpowder, tanks, aircraft, and nuclear weapons — the phenomena described by the famous Prussian strategist Clausewitz remain relevant. In particular, modern conflicts are witnessing a revolutionary transformation in the nature of warfare, driven by the development and deployment of AI-based weapon systems. Advancements in the field of AI has enabled the introduction of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) that have the ability to autonomously scan, identify, lock and destroy as well as carry out battle damage assessment over a range of airborne, seaborne and ground based targets with remarkable accuracy. AI-based systems are impacting various domains and influencing decision-making processes at different levels. However, this autonomy often leads to unacceptable collateral damage, posing challenges not only to the desired level of human control but also raising serious concerns about the extent of decision-making autonomy granted to machines. More and more countries and military industrial complexes worldwide are spending billions of dollars and dedicating resources to surpass others in the pursuit of AI-enabled command and control systems. In 2017, the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs carried out a study to identify a growing trend amongst number of countries to pursue and develop the use of autonomous weapon systems. According to the report, the ever-growing trend inherited a real risk of uncontrollable war. Similarly, a study on AI and Urban Operations conducted by the University of South Florida concluded that "the armed forces may soon be able to monitor, strike and kill their opponents and even civilians as will." Ruthless and lethal use of AI-driven targeting system was exemplified by IDF in Gaza. In December 2023, The Guardian revealed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) used an AI-based targeting system called Hesbora (Gospel) to target more than 100 targets in a single day. According to Aviv Kochavi, the former head of IDF, a human intelligence-based system could only identify up to 50 targets in an entire year. Chief Executive of Israeli Tech firm 'Start up Nation Central' Mr Avi Hasson stated that the "war in Gaza has provided an opportunity for the IDF to test emerging technologies which had never been used in past conflicts." Consequently, IDF destroyed more than 360,000 buildings, indiscriminately killed over 50,000 and injured over 113,500 Palestinians, most of whom were innocent women and children. Ironically, indiscriminate killing of non-combatants is forbidden in the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. Interestingly, technologically advanced, militarily strong, and economically wealthy countries worldwide are investing heavily in the development or acquisition of AI-based weapon systems. The AI in the Military Global Market Report 2024 projected a 16.6% growth in the global military market for 2024, reflecting a global race to dominate AI-driven military technology. In its New General AI Plan, China declared that "AI is a strategic technology that will lead the future" and aims to be the world leader in AI by 2030. Similarly, the US has adopted the "Third Offset Strategy" to invest heavily in AI, autonomous weapons, and robotics, vowing to maintain its technological edge. In February 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Department of Defense launched the Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarm of Systems project, aimed at developing autonomous drone swarms to overwhelm enemy air defense systems across air, land and sea. In June 2022, Indian Ministry of Defence organised the 'AI in Defence' (AIDef) symposium and introduced 75 AI-based platforms. Indian author and strategist Mr Pravin Sawhney, in his book The Last War, published in August 2022, has amplified the decisive role of AI and AI-based autonomous weapons and swam drones in a projected armed conflict between China and India. In the same context, Pakistan has also launched the Centre for AI and Computing (CENTAIC) under the auspices of Pakistan Air Force to spearhead AI development and AI-based integration of various air, land and sea weapon systems into operational and strategic domains. In the South Asian context, given the long-standing enmity under the nuclear overhang, the introduction of AI based LAWS and their unhesitating use could have serious repercussions on the security architecture. In the same context, absence of a comprehensive and regulatory legal framework coupled with non-existence of state monopoly further complicates the security situation. To gauge the destructive and dangerous nature of AI-driven command and control systems, a group of researchers from four US universities simulated a war scenario in January 2024, using five different AI programs, including OpenAI and Meta's Llama. The results were shocking for both scientists and advocates of AI-based LAWS. The study's findings revealed that all simulated models selected nuclear weapons as their first choice of weapon over other options, including diplomatic or peace initiatives, when confronting adversaries. The widespread availability of AI technology, coupled with the absence of global or state-level regulations and monopolies, makes it vulnerable to exploitation by non-state actors. This situation calls for the initiation of collective action and the implementation of a stringent regulatory framework at both the global and national levels. Concerted global efforts are needed to legally and ethically advance AI-driven initiatives. Recognising the significance and urgency of this issue, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasised in his address during the 2023 New Agenda for Peace policy briefing that "there is a necessity to conclude a legally binding instrument to prohibit the development and deployment of autonomous weapon systems by 2026."
Indian Express
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
This word means: Fog of war
WHY NOW? As tensions flare up between India and Pakistan, analysts and observers have increasingly invoked the phrase 'fog of war' to describe the confusion and chaos surrounding recent developments. It has also been used to describe the widespread mis/disinformation on social media platforms and even some sections of the media. According to the Oxford Dictionary of Phrases and Fables (2005), the phrase is used to describe the 'complexity of military conflicts'. It attributes the phrase to Carl von Clausewitz, a military general and war theorist in the kingdom of Prussia (comprising modern-day Germany and other parts of Central Europe). It is believed to be a paraphrased version of what he wrote in his book On War (1832): 'War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.' Clausewitz introduced the concept of 'friction' to describe the physical and psychological obstacles that complicate warfare — an idea that later evolved into what we now call the 'fog of war'. The exact phrase was first used in 1896 by Lonsdale Augustus Hale, a British Colonel, to describe the 'state of ignorance' among commanders over ground realities, including the strength and position of foes and allies. The phrase was subsequently adopted by the US armed forces to refer to operational challenges that could impair the decision-making capabilities of leaders, including but not limited to information warfare and intelligence gaps. Analysts have used the phrase to refer to the broader uncertainty around the current round of India-Pakistan tensions — including how and when they will subside. Tensions rose in the aftermath of the April 22 Pahalgam attack, where terrorists gunned down 26 civilians. India responded with targeted strikes on the intervening night of May 6 and 7, which struck nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Pakistan then retaliated with an escalation in ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) and air strikes in the northern and western frontiers of India. On Thursday, the Ministry of Defence stated that it had neutralised the air defence system in Lahore in response to Pakistani aggression. Later in the night, Indian forces thwarted a swarm of Pakistani drones and missiles that targeted military establishments in border states. As tensions escalate, so does the battle of optics. Experts have repeatedly warned against mis/disinformation circulating online. Multiple social media handles have been sharing and amplifying unsubstantiated claims, including AI-generated videos, misleading captions on re-purposed old videos and images, and fake news. The Press Information Bureau's (PIB's) fact-check unit has been flagging unverified claims, such as the closure of ATMs and a ban on entry to all Indian airports. Given the lack of information amid the chaos of attacks and retaliation, it is impossible for detectors to flag each of these false claims, much less the general public. Significantly, the government has also invoked its legal powers to block content that it finds to be propagating misinformation. Social media handles of several Pakistani news sites have been blocked in India. Meanwhile, Elon Musk-owned X stated that it was complying — reluctantly — with a government order to remove 8,000 accounts, including some international news organisations and accounts with a large number of followers. Sonal Gupta is a senior sub-editor on the news desk. She runs The Indian Express's weekly climate newsletter, Icebreaker. Apart from this, her interests range from politics and world affairs to art and culture and AI. She also curates the Morning Expresso, a daily briefing of top stories of the day, which won gold in the 'best newsletter' category at the WAN-IFRA South Asian Digital Media Awards 2023. ... Read More
Express Tribune
10-02-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Why strategic pragmatism?
Why does Pakistan lack strategic pragmatism? And how can the country deal with the serious domestic and foreign policy challenges coming up in 2025? If there is an absence of a culture of seeking pragmatic solutions to contentious issues, those who wield power come up with superficial narratives to deal with economic, political, security, environmental and governance challenges, only to result in perpetuation of the challenges. According to AI overview, "Strategic pragmatism is a problem-solving approach that combines analytical thinking with a focus on practicality. It can be applied to business, foreign policy, and other areas." Talking of strategic pragmatism in the military sense, famous Prussian general and strategist Carl Von Clausewitz says, "War is a continuation of politics by other means." To Clausewitz, war is actually a way to achieve political goals. Strategic pragmatism evolves in a society that is educated, enlightened and visionary; where there is a culture of path-breaking research; and where policymakers are focused on human development. On the contrary, a retrogressive society - one that is devoid of a forward-looking approach - only tends to perpetuate the prevailing crises. State, meanwhile, is equally responsible for developing and strengthening the culture of strategic pragmatism because it has the power and resources to ensure welfare and security for the people. However, if a state is corrupt and inefficient and tends to maximise its power at the expense of the people, the country is doomed to fail. There are countless examples to prove that a leadership with strategic pragmatism is able to pull the country out of the crises like poverty, backwardness and human insecurity. Countries like Bangladesh, India, South Korea, Malaysia and the Gulf states were able to overcome issues which impeded their progress and development. Several countries that lagged far behind Pakistan in socio-economic realms are now progressing because their leadership focused on human and social development instead of getting involved in corruption, nepotism and political witch-hunting. Power elites are mainly responsible for the absence of a culture of strategic pragmatism in the Pakistani society. When India was behind Pakistan in terms of per capita income, economic growth and exchange rate, the state of India was focusing on building heavy industries and modernising infrastructure - and not on promoting a culture of affluence and extravaganza. Now, India is the world's fifth largest economy, boasting a GDP of 4.6 trillion dollars, economic growth rate of 6% and foreign exchange reserves exceeding 700 billion dollars. This economic success is a result of strategic pragmatism based on a rational and realistic decision-making mechanism. Same is the case with the UAE which, at the time of its independence from Britain in 1971, lagged far behind Pakistan in all walks of life, but its leadership focused on innovation, modernisation, good governance and rule of law to become a First World nation. UAE's national flag career, Emirates, was raised by PIA. While the former is a leading airline of the world now, the latter is struggling to stay afloat. Luring foreign investors and formulating policies based on sound work ethics transformed the UAE from an impoverished country to a rich and modern state. Singapore is also a case in point. The city state which - at the time of its separation from Malaysia in 1965 - was backward and poor, managed to strengthen its economy thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yu. Now Singapore is considered a role model for economic development, modern infrastructure, rule of law and good governance. Its per capita income, GDP, exports and foreign exchange reserves are far higher than Pakistan's. When Lee Kuan Yu utilised the tools of strategic pragmatism, Singapore moved on and achieved miraculous success. Germany and Japan which were destroyed during WWII also excelled because the leadership of the two countries pursued policies strategically which transformed them into the world's second and third largest economies respectively. Why strategic pragmatism is essential for Pakistan and how the ruling elites can move in that direction need to be analysed from three angles. 1) With merely 11.3 billion dollars worth of foreign exchange reserves, economic growth rate at 2%, per capita income of 1450 dollars and exports of barely 30 billion dollars, Pakistan is struggling to manage its economy. Though inflation has come down, the power and gas tariffs as well as petrol prices are still very high, housing is still unaffordable, and many an essential is still out of the reach of common man. The middle class is shrinking and income disparity between rich and poor is widening with each passing day. Over 40 per cent of the population is already languishing below the poverty line. The economy is dependent on loans from IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and other multilateral institutions, besides friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China. All this goes to show that no strategic or pragmatic approach is being adopted by the policymakers to fix the economy. Instead of pursing a policy of self-reliance and taking steps to maximise exports and attract foreign investment, our economic czars are adopting shortcuts, like seeking loans, in order to meet the budgetary deficit. 2) Strategic pragmatism cannot be adopted in Pakistan unless hardwork, intelligence and integrity are promoted at the state and society level. If the culture of inefficiency, corruption and nepotism has endorsement from state and society, Pakistan can never emerge as a successful state featuring a vibrant economy, modern infrastructure, independent foreign policy, good governance and rule of law. 2) Karachi is a case study to understand the relevance of strategic pragmatism. The 30 million strong mega city shares 65% to the total revenue collection in the country, but it continues to struggle in terms of civic infrastructure and law and order. When Karachi has been left at the mercy of mafias and when vital issues related to water supply, street crime, education, waste disposal, environmental pollution and unemployment remain unresolved, the outcome is further degeneration. There is no way Pakistan or its biggest city Karachi can progress and prosper unless state power and resources are utilised for the benefit of citizens rather than for vested interests. Conserving water, energy and food resources alongside mitigating corruption and nepotism will go a long way in ensuring economic vibrancy, political stability, good governance and rule of law.
