Latest news with #ClearViewEnergyPartners
New York Times
5 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
Gasoline Prices Likely to Rise as Israel Targets Iran's Energy Infrastructure
American consumers are likely to start feeling the impact of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, as more expensive oil causes prices at the gas pump to rise. U.S. oil prices jumped 12 percent from Tuesday to Friday, to $72.98 a barrel, and energy prices may climb higher after Israel struck several Iranian oil and gas facilities over the weekend. Those included one of the world's largest natural gas fields, known as South Pars; Tehran's main gas depot; and an oil refinery. Last week's increase in oil prices could cause gasoline prices to rise about 20 cents a gallon in the coming weeks, according to ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. Oil and fuels like gasoline and diesel had been relatively cheap leading up to Israel's strikes on Iran last week, which could cushion the blow to consumers. A gallon of regular gasoline costs $3.14 on average, down from $3.45 this time last year, according to the AAA motor club. How Iran responds to Israel's latest strikes will have a big effect on oil prices. The country is a large oil producer and its position on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, a major thoroughfare for oil and liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., means that it could severely disrupt global energy markets. If Iran were to close the waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman for even a short time, oil prices could rise anywhere from $8 to $31 a barrel, according to ClearView Energy Partners. 'Escalation of the conflict presents many supply risks, but — at peril of stating the obvious — the greatest is probably an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime energy cargoes,' the firm's analysts wrote on Saturday. Iran has an economic incentive to allow tankers to continue passing through the strait, as it ships oil through that channel, much of it to China. And although the United States has been buying less and less oil from the Persian Gulf, the commodity is traded globally, leaving consumers and businesses exposed to price increases. Should U.S. oil companies respond to higher prices by drilling more, it would still take many months for that oil to start flowing. Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.
New Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
US monitoring Israel-Iran attacks' impact on global energy supply
WASHINGTON: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday he and his team are working with the White House's National Security Council to monitor the situation in the Middle East and any potential impacts to global energy supply. Wright said on X, after Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and Iran's response of missiles on Israel, that President Donald Trump's policy of maximizing US oil and gas output, which also involves slashing pollution regulations, has boosted US energy security. Oil and gas sites in Iran, an OPEC member, have not been targeted, analysts have said. Global crude oil prices spiked on Friday, settling 7 per cent higher at more than US$74 per barrel on investor worries about conflict spreading to the wider Middle East. And US gasoline prices could rise about 20 cents a gallon in coming days during peak US summer driving season "creating economic pressures and political headwinds for President Donald Trump, who campaigned on lowering energy costs," analysts at ClearView Energy Partners said in a note to clients. ClearView said higher prices could push Trump to focus on tapping strategic petroleum reserves, seeking supply additions from the OPEC+ production group, and could complicate efforts to tighten sanctions on Russia, one of the world's top three oil producers. The US Energy Department did not immediately respond to a question about the potential to tap the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world's largest, which currently holds 402.1 million barrels of crude. Fatih Birol, the head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, said on X that the IEA oil security system, which includes the US SPR, has more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stocks. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries slammed Birol's post, saying on X it raises false alarms and "projects a sense of market fear." --REUTERS
Yahoo
07-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Graham wants to punish Russia with ‘bone-crushing' sanctions. It could backfire.
Sen. Lindsey Graham has pledged that his expansive sanctions bill would be 'bone crushing' for the Russian economy. But if enacted, the South Carolina Republican's proposal to impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy would effectively cut the U.S. off from some of the world's largest economies — including allies in Europe. 'A 500 percent tariff is essentially a hard decoupling,' said Kevin Book, managing director of Clear View Energy Partners, an energy research firm. Graham appeared to acknowledge as much on Wednesday, when he proposed a broad carve-out for countries that provide aid to Ukraine. This exemption would spare the European Union, which continues to import almost 20 percent of its gas from Russia. But experts remain skeptical that the sky-high tariffs proposed in the Sanctioning Russia Act are in any way feasible. India and China buy roughly 70 percent of Russian energy exports, but several other countries that buy any oil, gas or uranium from Moscow — and aren't included in the carve-out — could also be exposed to tariffs under the bill. The United States, which is still reliant on imports of enriched uranium from Russia to fuel its nuclear reactors, could also run afoul of the bill. Edward Fishman, a senior researcher with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said countries in the crosshairs of the bill would struggle to halt their imports of Russian energy overnight. Tariffs of 500 percent on imports of goods made in China would send prices soaring, disrupt supply chains and could drive up U.S. unemployment to recessionary levels. Most likely, it would lead to a screeching halt in U.S. trade with China. 'It would hurt Americans quite a bit,' Fishman said. The legislation's goal, co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), is to starve Russia's war economy, which continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars from energy exports. There is widespread support for the overall objective, with 82 senators signing on to Graham's bill so far, and growing support for a companion bill in the House. The bill is likely to change significantly as it moves through Congress and in consultations with the Trump administration, said Matt Zweig, senior policy director of FDD Action, a nonprofit advocacy organization affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. It may also take a long time. 'With sanctions legislation, you're also normally dealing with iterative processes where you would want to go through every nook and cranny,' Zweig said. Still, the widespread bipartisan support for the legislation suggests there is a high degree of support among lawmakers for tougher action on Russia. "What Congress may be doing is pressuring the executive branch to act,' said Adam Smith, a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn. "There is a sense in the Senate that more sanctions on Russia need to be imposed, or ought to be imposed,' added Smith, who was a senior adviser to the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control during the Obama administration. Graham, the bill's most vocal Republican advocate, said as much in a meeting with reporters in Paris over the weekend, where he described the bill as 'one of the most draconian sanctions bills ever written.' 'The Senate is pissed that Russia is playing a game at our expense and the world's expense. And we are willing to do something we haven't been willing to do before — and that is go after people that have been helping Putin,' Graham said. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed concerns that the bill is too harsh. "We need to make Putin understand he has to stop screwing around and come to the table. But we also need to follow it up and make clear we will be tough," she said. Not everyone agrees. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has long been skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions to change the behavior of U.S. adversaries, bashed the bill on Monday as 'literally the most ill-conceived bill I've ever seen in Washington,' he said. 'It would be a worldwide embargo on 36 countries.' Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have made little progress on peace talks. Officials from both countries met in Istanbul on Monday and agreed to a further prisoner swap, but failed to achieve any major breakthroughs. Graham and Blumenthal visited Ukraine, France and Germany during last week's congressional recess, where they discussed the sanctions bill, as well as efforts to push Russia to the negotiating table. The proposal has been welcomed by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, who met with Graham in Berlin on Monday. 'Pressure works, as the Kremlin understands nothing else,' Von der Leyen said in a statement. 'These steps, taken together with U.S. measures, would sharply increase the joint impact of our sanctions.' Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Monday that the chamber could take up the legislation later this month. Republican senators have said they would like to secure the approval of the White House before moving forward. The proposed use of blanket tariffs to target countries that continue to do business with Russia's energy sector is novel and appears to be pitched to Trump's interests. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump viewed sanctions as "a tool in his toolbox,' but declined to comment about his position on the bill. Trump appeared to be inching closer toward supporting the bill in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, which linked to an op-ed in The Washington Post supporting the legislation. Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump indicated he wanted lawmakers to secure his approval before moving forward with the bill. 'They're waiting for me to decide on what to do,' he said, describing the legislation as a 'harsh bill.' The president has liberally wielded tariffs to advance his foreign policy agenda, but his implementation has been spotty. Wall Street has even adopted a trading strategy referencing Trump's capriciousness called TACO, which stands for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.' Tariffs of 145 percent on China, imposed in April, lasted a month before being dramatically scaled back to make way for trade talks, which have so far failed to secure a breakthrough. As it stands, the bill includes some levers that Trump could pull to forestall the tariffs, requiring the president to make a formal determination that Russia is refusing to negotiate or has violated any future peace agreement. Nahal Toosi, Joshua Berlinger, Phelim Kine and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
Politico
07-06-2025
- Business
- Politico
Graham wants to punish Russia with ‘bone-crushing' sanctions. It could backfire.
Sen. Lindsey Graham has pledged that his expansive sanctions bill would be 'bone crushing' for the Russian economy. But if enacted, the South Carolina Republican's proposal to impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy would effectively cut the U.S. off from some of the world's largest economies — including allies in Europe. 'A 500 percent tariff is essentially a hard decoupling,' said Kevin Book, managing director of Clear View Energy Partners, an energy research firm. Graham appeared to acknowledge as much on Wednesday, when he proposed a broad carve-out for countries that provide aid to Ukraine. This exemption would spare the European Union, which continues to import almost 20 percent of its gas from Russia. But experts remain skeptical that the sky-high tariffs proposed in the Sanctioning Russia Act are in any way feasible. India and China buy roughly 70 percent of Russian energy exports, but several other countries that buy any oil, gas or uranium from Moscow — and aren't included in the carve-out — could also be exposed to tariffs under the bill. The United States, which is still reliant on imports of enriched uranium from Russia to fuel its nuclear reactors, could also run afoul of the bill. Edward Fishman, a senior researcher with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said countries in the crosshairs of the bill would struggle to halt their imports of Russian energy overnight. Tariffs of 500 percent on imports of goods made in China would send prices soaring, disrupt supply chains and could drive up U.S. unemployment to recessionary levels. Most likely, it would lead to a screeching halt in U.S. trade with China. 'It would hurt Americans quite a bit,' Fishman said. The legislation's goal, co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), is to starve Russia's war economy, which continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars from energy exports. There is widespread support for the overall objective, with 82 senators signing on to Graham's bill so far, and growing support for a companion bill in the House. The bill is likely to change significantly as it moves through Congress and in consultations with the Trump administration, said Matt Zweig, senior policy director of FDD Action, a nonprofit advocacy organization affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. It may also take a long time. 'With sanctions legislation, you're also normally dealing with iterative processes where you would want to go through every nook and cranny,' Zweig said. Still, the widespread bipartisan support for the legislation suggests there is a high degree of support among lawmakers for tougher action on Russia. 'What Congress may be doing is pressuring the executive branch to act,' said Adam Smith, a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn. 'There is a sense in the Senate that more sanctions on Russia need to be imposed, or ought to be imposed,' added Smith, who was a senior adviser to the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control during the Obama administration. Graham, the bill's most vocal Republican advocate, said as much in a meeting with reporters in Paris over the weekend, where he described the bill as 'one of the most draconian sanctions bills ever written.' 'The Senate is pissed that Russia is playing a game at our expense and the world's expense. And we are willing to do something we haven't been willing to do before — and that is go after people that have been helping Putin,' Graham said. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed concerns that the bill is too harsh. 'We need to make Putin understand he has to stop screwing around and come to the table. But we also need to follow it up and make clear we will be tough,' she said. Not everyone agrees. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has long been skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions to change the behavior of U.S. adversaries, bashed the bill on Monday as 'literally the most ill-conceived bill I've ever seen in Washington,' he said. 'It would be a worldwide embargo on 36 countries.' Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have made little progress on peace talks. Officials from both countries met in Istanbul on Monday and agreed to a further prisoner swap, but failed to achieve any major breakthroughs. Graham and Blumenthal visited Ukraine, France and Germany during last week's congressional recess, where they discussed the sanctions bill, as well as efforts to push Russia to the negotiating table. The proposal has been welcomed by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, who met with Graham in Berlin on Monday. 'Pressure works, as the Kremlin understands nothing else,' Von der Leyen said in a statement. 'These steps, taken together with U.S. measures, would sharply increase the joint impact of our sanctions.' Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Monday that the chamber could take up the legislation later this month. Republican senators have said they would like to secure the approval of the White House before moving forward. The proposed use of blanket tariffs to target countries that continue to do business with Russia's energy sector is novel and appears to be pitched to Trump's interests. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump viewed sanctions as 'a tool in his toolbox,' but declined to comment about his position on the bill. Trump appeared to be inching closer toward supporting the bill in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, which linked to an op-ed in The Washington Post supporting the legislation. Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump indicated he wanted lawmakers to secure his approval before moving forward with the bill. 'They're waiting for me to decide on what to do,' he said, describing the legislation as a 'harsh bill.' The president has liberally wielded tariffs to advance his foreign policy agenda, but his implementation has been spotty. Wall Street has even adopted a trading strategy referencing Trump's capriciousness called TACO, which stands for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.' Tariffs of 145 percent on China, imposed in April, lasted a month before being dramatically scaled back to make way for trade talks, which have so far failed to secure a breakthrough. As it stands, the bill includes some levers that Trump could pull to forestall the tariffs, requiring the president to make a formal determination that Russia is refusing to negotiate or has violated any future peace agreement. Nahal Toosi, Joshua Berlinger, Phelim Kine and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
Axios
04-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Double-whammy of trade wars and OPEC barrels sends crude plunging
Oil prices slid to their lowest levels since 2021 Friday after China unveiled steep retaliatory tariffs, adding to Thursday's plunge on news of the White House trade war and more OPEC+ supply. Why it matters: The swirling forces bringing the steep drop serve one White House goal (lower energy prices) while further impeding another (drill baby drill). Driving the news: China will impose 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods, the nation's finance minister said Friday. On Thursday, OPEC+ said it would speed up the unwinding of some production curbs. The stated reason for adding 411,000 barrels per day in May, instead of 135k as planned, is healthy fundamentals (a debatable observation). Add trade battles that are bearish for demand and OPEC+ adding more barrels and you get Brent prices at $64.40 Thursday morning. Between the lines: On OPEC+, RBC Capital Markets also sees internal politics to discourage some members including Kazakhstan and Iraq from overproduction as one reason behind the decision. But ClearView Energy Partners, in a note, sees some connection to Trump, who has previously called for more OPEC output. Oil was exempted from Trump's new tariffs. But his broader trade battles, and steps like last week's threat of secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian oil, could have influenced the group. "Even if one discounts the idea that rumbles from Washington are enough to drive a production increase on their own, we suspect neither the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], the Kremlin nor other OPEC+ players will be disappointed if [Thursday's] decision has the effect of minimizing economic risks emanating from the White House," ClearView said.
