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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Major disaster from three years ago could impact Australia's winters for years
A major natural disaster that occurred two years ago could be impacting Australia's climate this winter, and may continue to do so for a number of years. Scientists say they are 'surprised' by the results in their study, which showed the effects may be felt around the world for up to a decade. On January 15, 2022, an underwater volcano off the Pacific nation of Tonga exploded, releasing 1,000 times more energy than the Hiroshima bomb. It was one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions in recent history, and sent up to 150 million tonnes of water vapour into the stratosphere. A study into the long-term impacts of that water vapour injection found it may temporarily alter local climates, including cooler winters in Australia, warmer winters and spring in North America, drier summers over northern Eurasia, and more rain over China's east coast. Lead author and senior lecturer of the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW, Martin Jucker, told Yahoo News it was "really unusual" for volcanoes to leave such a long-lasting impact. "Volcanoes are generally known to impact the global climate, but that's usually a cooling due to all the smoke and for a few years. It's usually more like two to three years, not eight years." He also said the research was complex, as a multitude of things can impact the weather and worsen or placate their findings. 'One very important thing about our study is that we look into the future, and there's no way to know how the global mean temperature or sea surface temperature, El Nino, El Nina, and all of these things, how they would look in the future. So we didn't include any of those effects. I only included the volcano and nothing else,' Jucker said. In Australia, the study found anomalies in surface temperature that could see winters get up to 1°C cooler. Those in Western Australia may also see slightly lower temperatures in summer and autumn. Australia's surface temperature anomalies were described in the study as the 'most persistent, with significant cooling from year 1 to 8'. The research also picked up slightly more rain than usual in WA, and wet anomalies over northern Australia. Interestingly, the anomalies peak at years three and four after the eruption, which would be this year and next year. The three-year lag is because of the composition of the stratosphere, Jucker said. 'There are no weather systems, there's no clouds, no rain, or anything, and everything moves much more slowly. This water vapour was put into the stratosphere very locally, just above the volcano. So it needed time for this water to distribute itself across the entire globe and that takes a few years," he said. The changes can be difficult to perceive, Jucker said, and may not even be noticeable until looked at as an average over the next four years or so. 'I still hope we do [see the changes] because I just find it exciting. I'm waiting to see if we can confirm it from a scientific point of view. 'We find this effect only if we average over a long time. So four years, from now to 2029, we average, and then we see this effect. Even after year three, we don't even see these effects if we just look down one individual year, for instance.' While the study found weather anomalies around the world, the cooling in Australia and warming over North America don't have an overall impact on global temperature as they 'cancel out'. "Now, what we did find is these regional impacts which would be starting about now, so three years after. And so they globally, they sum up to zero, but locally, there's a cooling," Jucker said. "There's a cooling that we expect in winter over Australia over this time period, but there's a warming in North America in their winter, for instance. So all of these things cancel out, but regionally they're there." He added that, like all scientific studies, it's important to remember that his findings are not definitive. "So even when I say, we expect colder winters over Australia, it's really the probability of it being colder is higher. But it could be warmer, and that's fine. That would still be within our results. It's just that the probability of it being colder is higher," he said. One prediction that has so far proven correct in Jucker's study is that the volcano's eruption would contribute to a hole in the ozone layer. The large hole appeared from August to December in 2023, which is what his simulations picked up almost two years in advance. Do you have a story tip? Email: newsroomau@ You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube.
The Independent
10-02-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Is there any hope for Paris Agreement targets after 2024 record temperatures?
The Earth may have already entered an era of intensified global heating that the Paris Agreement was aimed to avert, two new studies examining the record breaking temperatures of 2024 have found. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests the unprecedented heat last year could mark the beginning of a multi-decade period where the average global temperature consistently exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. In 2024, temperatures rose above 1.5C for 12 consecutive months. This matters because 1.5C is the key target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the level countries were trying to avoid exceeding to limit catastrophic climate impacts. The first study, from Germany, suggests Earth has likely entered a 20-year period where global temperatures will consistently average above 1.5C. 'Multiple datasets and approaches from different organisations converged on a 2024 average increase of 1.55C above the pre-industrial baseline," the study says. The second study, led by researchers from Canada, says June 2024 marked the 12th consecutive month with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The study shows that having 12 consecutive months above 1.5C means there's a 76 per cent chance that we've already hit that long-term warming threshold under current climate policies. If this trend continues for 18 consecutive months, the research says, the breach of the Paris Agreement threshold will be virtually certain. January 2025 was the 19th month to cross that mark. Dr Andrew King, senior lecturer in climate science at the University of Melbourne, who was not part of either study, says the research highlights how "single months and years over the 1.5C mark are likely to be features of a longer period the world has entered in which the climate averages more than 1.5C of global warming'. Without rapid decarbonisation, he warns, it will be difficult to prevent the climate from remaining above this threshold. "Global greenhouse gas emissions remain at or near record levels, and global warming has even accelerated in recent years. 'A major shift is needed to decarbonise our society and economy; otherwise, we will keep warming the planet and causing more and more damage.' These studies are a timely reminder of how far we really are from tackling climate change properly. But Dr Tom Mortlock, head of climate analytics Asia-Pacific at Aon and Adjunct Fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW, adds: "2024 was the warmest year on record globally, with average temperatures exceeding 1.5C. While often used interchangeably, this is not the same thing as breaching the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5C." He explains that the Paris Agreement's targets refer to 20-year averages, meaning we won't officially know if we've crossed the threshold until years after it happens. "Whether we have [breached the Paris target] or not, the fact remains that we only have about six years left in the global carbon budget at current rates to give ourselves a 50/50 chance of still making the Paris target. "If this new research is correct, 2024 may be the first sign that we have already overshot this target." These warnings come after confirmation from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures approximately 1.55C above pre-industrial levels. The impacts of this warming are already being felt globally. From deadly wildfires in California to catastrophic flooding in Valencia, Nepal, and Sudan, studies have shown climate crisis has made extreme weather worse. Scientists say the time has come when we have to make hard choices in order to prioritise the climate. 'Get ready for a '1.5 world'' says Dr Paul Read, director of the Future Emergency Resilience Network (FERN). 'Sometime soon we're going to have to make serious alterations to our socioeconomic, energy, and infrastructure systems that transcend 'politics as usual'. 'We can do it with resource wars and misery or else creativity and compassion. I like to think most people would choose the latter no matter what flavour of politics they prefer."
