01-04-2025
South Korea, US should go beyond rhetoric, get real on Taiwan contingency: report
Allies should clarify expectations for role of alliance in event of US-China conflict
South Korea and the United States should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on the intractable, long-avoided question of their alliance's role in a Taiwan contingency, moving beyond rhetorical alignment on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, a report released by a Washington-based think tank said Monday.
The Korea Economic Institute of America pointed out the two allies remain unprepared for practical planning for a potential conflict between the US and China over Taiwan — particularly one that could trigger simultaneous instability on the Korean Peninsula, in the report 'Siloed No More: The US-ROK Alliance and a Taiwan Conflict.' ROK refers to the official name of South Korea, the Republic of Korea.
'A key topline takeaway was that despite a notable uptick in leader-level and diplomatic statements in support of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, official alliance discussions regarding a Taiwan conflict were at a very nascent stage, if not nonexistent,' read the report. 'Most US and South Korean respondents strongly felt such discussions were needed.'
The report was written based on 42 interviews with current and former US and South Korean government officials, think tank experts and academics from June 2024 to February 2025 in both Washington and Seoul. Most were in-person interviews, with some held virtually or via written email responses.
'There was a gap between this notable and important language and the actual level of detailed conversation or scenario planning within the alliance about how a conflict would actually be navigated," Clint Work, a fellow and director of academic affairs at KEI, said Monday during an event in Washington on the report publication.
The report pointed to a range of challenges and obstacles that have hindered formal, detailed discussions within the ROK-US alliance framework about a Taiwan conflict.
Washington's 'strategic ambiguity' on whether it will defend Taiwan, as well as its failure to communicate concise expectations to allies such as South Korea, has resulted in hesitation from Seoul. Moreover, there is a lack of a framework that can serve as a basis for how allies can be involved and provide input in a Taiwan contingency.
There is a widespread expectation that other allies, such as Japan and Australia, would take prominent roles, lessening the urgency on South Korea to prepare accordingly.
In South Korea, a lack of bipartisan consensus on China issues, a lack of a strong bond with Taiwan, centralized decision-making that discourages bureaucratic initiatives and a predominant focus on the Korean Peninsula — along with concerns over provoking China — undercut Seoul's willingness to become actively involved in contingency planning in relation to Taiwan.
To surmount such barriers, "various US and South Korean respondents strongly advocated for the US-ROK alliance to engage in discussions about more fundamental questions" on the Taiwan issue, the report read.
'In particular, what is South Korea's national interest in Taiwan, and how do its national interests interconnect with Taiwan and a potential Taiwan conflict, aside from the alliance and South Korea's prominent and understandable peninsular concerns?'
The allies should engage in deeper discussions about whether — and to what extent — South Korea could contribute militarily in the event of a Taiwan contingency, or whether its role would be confined to providing civilian supports such as logistics, according to the report.
One of the central issues for the allies is the necessity and potential levels of involvement by US Forces Korea, and how far the USFK's 'strategic flexibility' should extend before, during and after if a conflict over Taiwan were to occur.
'US and South Korean respondents felt the alliance needed to have more in-depth, regular and transparent discussions about the possible levels of USFK's involvement in a Taiwan conflict and what role South Korea would need to play in filling any potential gaps,' the report read.
Against that backdrop, the allies should also examine whether it is acceptable for the United States to use both US and South Korean infrastructure in South Korea as a logistical hub for delivering support to Taiwan, according to the report.
'Therefore, the US-ROK alliance needed to begin having these conversations,' the report read. 'Agreeing with the need to discuss such issues, multiple respondents noted the importance of clarifying and calibrating expectations.'
