Latest news with #ColdWar-era
The Star
10 hours ago
- Business
- The Star
North Korea gets a weapons bonanza from Russia
SEOUL: Attack drones directed by artificial intelligence. Tanks with improved electronic warfare systems. A newly built naval destroyer fitted with supersonic cruise missiles. A new air defence system. Air-to-air missiles. The list of new weapons being touted by North Korea grows almost by the week. Long-held conventional wisdom had it that North Korea – crippled by international sanctions, natural disasters and the coronavirus pandemic – was unable to upgrade its decrepit Soviet-era military because it lacked the money, fuel, spare parts and technology required. But its wily leader, Kim Jong Un, found a solution to his country's decades-old problem. He courted Russia after it invaded Ukraine three years ago and ran into a dire shortage of both troops and conventional weapons, like artillery shells. North Korea had plenty of both to provide. In return, Moscow has revived a Cold War-era treaty of mutual defence and cooperation with Pyongyang, supplying North Korea not only with fuel and food, but also with materials and technologies to modernise its military, according to South Korean officials and analysts. They warn that the growing expansion of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, if left unchecked, could threaten a delicate military balance around the Korean Peninsula. The disintegration of the old Soviet bloc, and the subsequent collapse of North Korea's economy, created a yawning gap between North and South Korea in their conventional weapons abilities. To counter that, North Korea in recent decades dedicated its limited resources to developing nuclear warheads and their delivery missiles. Still, the North's conventional weaponry remained many years behind that of South Korea and the United States, which keeps 28,500 troops in the South. Russia's war against Ukraine has brought Kim a military bonanza. It gave North Korea opportunities to test its weapons and troops, and to gain valuable insights into modern warfare. Its conventional weapons industry has entered a renaissance, thanks to Russia's insatiable demand for its artillery shells and missiles and the military technology flowing the other way, South Korean analysts said. Kim now has greater ability to destabilise the East Asia region and more leverage should he sit down again with US President Donald Trump or China's leader Xi Jinping, they said. 'North Korea appears to be entering a strategic golden age,' said Yang Uk, an expert on the North Korean military at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, South Korea. The alliance has benefited President Vladimir Putin of Russia, too. For months, Russian officials concealed the fact that North Korean troops were taking part in efforts to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region, in western Russia. It was only at the end of April, when most of the Ukrainian-occupied area had been liberated, that the head of the Russian General Staff said during a public meeting with Putin that North Korean troops 'provided significant assistance' to the Russian army there. Perhaps more valuably, North Korea sent millions of artillery rounds, as well as many missiles, to Russia. South Korean officials said that North Korea was also cooperating with Russia to build drones for both nations. Russia's resurgence in the war has given Putin a stronger hand in any potential peace negotiations with Ukraine, and with Trump. The courtship between Kim and Putin deepened when they met in Russia's Far East in September 2023. Kim was shown around a Russian space-launch station, an aircraft manufacturing factory and air force and naval bases, compiling what South Korean analysts called a 'bucket list' of Russian technologies he wanted to get his hands on. Last June, Kim invited Putin to Pyongyang, the North's capital, to sign an alliance treaty. Soon, North Korean troops began streaming into Russia, numbering up to 15,000 in all, according to South Korean intelligence officials North Korean troops took part in recapturing two villages in the Kursk region, said Dmitri Kuznets, an analyst with the news outlet Meduza, which was outlawed by the Kremlin and operates from Latvia. But the true extent of the troops' contributions has been debated. Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, said in a post on Telegram, a popular messaging app, that the participation of Koreans in real battles was Kim's idea, so that he could test his army. 'All of them are getting an incredible experience now and will come back as real veterans,' Shiryaev said. 'There are no such people in the South Korean army, which undoubtedly fills Kim Jong Un with pride.' Analysts in South Korea and other Western powers have been tallying Kim's hardware gains. They have monitored aircraft and ships carrying what appeared to be Russian military technologies to North Korea. Kim also began more frequently visiting munitions factories and watching weapons tests. He oversaw the test firing of an anti-aircraft missile system in March amid indications that he was getting badly needed Russian help to modernise the North's decrepit air defence. He later inspected reconnaissance and the self-destructing attack drones that used AI to hit targets. His prioritising of drones alone would help significantly narrow the gap with South Korea in conventional weapons, analysts said. In April, Kim and his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, widely believed to be his heir, attended the launching of the North's first naval destroyer, the Choe Hyon. He later watched the ship test-fire various missiles. One of them was called a supersonic cruise missile by North Korea, and it resembled the nuclear-capable Russian cruise missile 3M22 Zircon, said Hong Min, a military expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. While launching the destroyer, Kim reconfirmed that he was also building a nuclear-powered submarine. Early in May, he visited a tank factory where he said that 'the armoured weapons of the last century' were being replaced, state media reported. He later inspected expanded and modernised munitions factories, praising a four-fold increase in artillery shells, a key North Korean export to Russia. Kim also visited an air force unit and watched what looked like a MiG-29 fighter jet hitting a midair target with an air-to-air missile. Such a scene was a far cry from the days when North Korea could rarely get its fighter jets off the ground for lack of fuel and spare parts. The weapons that North Korea has been brandishing suggest Russian help in developing them, said Lee Sung-joon, a South Korean military spokesperson. South Korean officials usually take North Korea's claims with a dose of scepticism as it has often exaggerated its military achievements for propaganda purposes. And the pressure that Kim has been exerting on his engineers to complete new weapons quickly has led to mishaps. This past month, when North Korea launched its second destroyer, the ship capsized, prompting an angry Kim to order the arrest of several officials. But with Russia's help, North Korea is moving faster to fulfill its ambitious plans for upgrading weaponry announced in 2021, said Choi Yong-hwan, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul. Building bigger ships would allow North Korea to start joint naval exercises with Russia around the Korean Peninsula, as South Korea has done with the United States for decades, he said. Multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions ban arms trading with North Korea. But military cooperation with Russia 'has proved a perfect route for the North to evade sanctions and overcome its technological limits,' said a report from the institute. There remains doubt over how much sensitive technology Russia is willing to share with North Korea. North Korea has repeatedly failed to launch military spy satellites. And to build a nuclear-powered submarine, the country would need a small nuclear reactor. Such a submarine, which would vastly improve its ability to cross the Pacific and launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland, was so politically risky that Moscow would be 'very, very cautious,' said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul. But the mere threat it could happen gives Kim more leverage, and North Korean state media has shown part of what it said was a nuclear-powered submarine under construction. 'It's the most dangerous weapon North Korea has unveiled so far,' said Hong, of the Korea Institute for National Unification. - The New York Times
Straits Times
11 hours ago
- Business
- Straits Times
North Korea gets a weapons bonanza from Russia
This picture taken on May 15 and released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on May 17 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (centre) beside a MiG-29 aircraft. PHOTO: AFP SEOUL – Attack drones directed by artificial intelligence. Tanks with improved electronic warfare systems. A newly built naval destroyer fitted with supersonic cruise missiles. A new air defence system. Air-to-air missiles. The list of new weapons being touted by North Korea grows almost by the week. Long-held conventional wisdom had it that North Korea – crippled by international sanctions, natural disasters and the coronavirus pandemic – was unable to upgrade its decrepit Soviet-era military because it lacked the money, fuel, spare parts and technology required. But its wily leader, Kim Jong Un, found a solution to his country's decades-old problem. He courted Russia after it invaded Ukraine three years ago and ran into a dire shortage of both troops and conventional weapons, like artillery shells. North Korea had plenty of both to provide. In return, Moscow has revived a Cold War-era treaty of mutual defence and cooperation with Pyongyang, supplying North Korea not only with fuel and food, but also with materials and technologies to modernise its military, according to South Korean officials and analysts. They warn that the growing expansion of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, if left unchecked, could threaten a delicate military balance around the Korean Peninsula. The disintegration of the old Soviet bloc, and the subsequent collapse of North Korea's economy, created a yawning gap between North and South Korea in their conventional weapons abilities. To counter that, North Korea in recent decades dedicated its limited resources to developing nuclear warheads and their delivery missiles. Still, the North's conventional weaponry remained many years behind that of South Korea and the United States, which keeps 28,500 troops in the South. Russia's war against Ukraine has brought Mr Kim a military bonanza. It gave North Korea opportunities to test its weapons and troops, and to gain valuable insights into modern warfare. Its conventional weapons industry has entered a renaissance, thanks to Russia's insatiable demand for its artillery shells and missiles and the military technology flowing the other way, South Korean analysts said. Mr Kim now has greater ability to destabilise the East Asia region and more leverage should he sit down again with US President Donald Trump or China's leader Xi Jinping, they said. 'North Korea appears to be entering a strategic golden age,' said Mr Yang Uk, an expert on the North Korean military at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, South Korea. The alliance has benefited President Vladimir Putin of Russia, too. For months, Russian officials concealed the fact that North Korean troops were taking part in efforts to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region, in western Russia. It was only at the end of April, when most of the Ukrainian-occupied area had been liberated, that the head of the Russian General Staff said during a public meeting with Mr Putin that North Korean troops 'provided significant assistance' to the Russian army there. Perhaps more valuably, North Korea sent millions of artillery rounds, as well as many missiles, to Russia. South Korean officials said that North Korea was also cooperating with Russia to build drones for both nations. Russia's resurgence in the war has given Mr Putin a stronger hand in any potential peace negotiations with Ukraine, and with Mr Trump. The courtship between Mr Kim and Mr Putin deepened when they met in Russia's Far East in September 2023. Mr Kim was shown around a Russian space-launch station, an aircraft manufacturing factory and air force and naval bases, compiling what South Korean analysts called a 'bucket list' of Russian technologies he wanted to get his hands on. Last June, Mr Kim invited Mr Putin to Pyongyang, the North's capital, to sign an alliance treaty. Soon, North Korean troops began streaming into Russia, numbering up to 15,000 in all, according to South Korean intelligence officials North Korean troops took part in recapturing two villages in the Kursk region, said Mr Dmitri Kuznets, an analyst with the news outlet Meduza, which was outlawed by the Kremlin and operates from Latvia. But the true extent of the troops' contributions has been debated. A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows a new North Korean warship at the harbour May 25 after an accident during the launch ceremony in Chongjin, North Korea. PHOTO: EPA-EFE Mr Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, said in a post on Telegram, a popular messaging app, that the participation of Koreans in real battles was Mr Kim's idea, so that he could test his army. 'All of them are getting an incredible experience now and will come back as real veterans,' Mr Shiryaev said. 'There are no such people in the South Korean army, which undoubtedly fills Kim Jong Un with pride.' Analysts in South Korea and other Western powers have been tallying Mr Kim's hardware gains. They have monitored aircraft and ships carrying what appeared to be Russian military technologies to North Korea. Mr Kim also began more frequently visiting munitions factories and watching weapons tests. He oversaw the test firing of an anti-aircraft missile system in March amid indications that he was getting badly needed Russian help to modernise the North's decrepit air defence. He later inspected reconnaissance and the self-destructing attack drones that used AI to hit targets. His prioritising of drones alone would help significantly narrow the gap with South Korea in conventional weapons, analysts said. In April, Mr Kim and his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, widely believed to be his heir, attended the launching of the North's first naval destroyer, the Choe Hyon. He later watched the ship test-fire various missiles. One of them was called a supersonic cruise missile by North Korea, and it resembled the nuclear-capable Russian cruise missile 3M22 Zircon, said Mr Hong Min, a military expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. While launching the destroyer, Mr Kim reconfirmed that he was also building a nuclear-powered submarine. Early in May, he visited a tank factory where he said that 'the armoured weapons of the last century' were being replaced, state media reported. He later inspected expanded and modernised munitions factories, praising a four-fold increase in artillery shells, a key North Korean export to Russia. Mr Kim also visited an air force unit and watched what looked like a MiG-29 fighter jet hitting a midair target with an air-to-air missile. Such a scene was a far cry from the days when North Korea could rarely get its fighter jets off the ground for lack of fuel and spare parts. The weapons that North Korea has been brandishing suggest Russian help in developing them, said Mr Lee Sung-joon, a South Korean military spokesperson. South Korean officials usually take North Korea's claims with a dose of scepticism as it has often exaggerated its military achievements for propaganda purposes. And the pressure that Mr Kim has been exerting on his engineers to complete new weapons quickly has led to mishaps. This past month, when North Korea launched its second destroyer, the ship capsized, prompting an angry Mr Kim to order the arrest of several officials. But with Russia's help, North Korea is moving faster to fulfill its ambitious plans for upgrading weaponry announced in 2021, said Mr Choi Yong-hwan, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul. Building bigger ships would allow North Korea to start joint naval exercises with Russia around the Korean Peninsula, as South Korea has done with the United States for decades, he said. Multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions ban arms trading with North Korea. But military cooperation with Russia 'has proved a perfect route for the North to evade sanctions and overcome its technological limits,' said a report from the institute. There remains doubt over how much sensitive technology Russia is willing to share with North Korea. North Korea has repeatedly failed to launch military spy satellites. And to build a nuclear-powered submarine, the country would need a small nuclear reactor. Such a submarine, which would vastly improve its ability to cross the Pacific and launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland, was so politically risky that Moscow would be 'very, very cautious,' said Mr Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul. But the mere threat it could happen gives Mr Kim more leverage, and North Korean state media has shown part of what it said was a nuclear-powered submarine under construction. 'It's the most dangerous weapon North Korea has unveiled so far,' said Mr Hong, of the Korea Institute for National Unification. NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Boston Globe
20 hours ago
- Business
- Boston Globe
North Korea gets a weapons bonanza from Russia
Advertisement In return, Moscow has revived a Cold War-era treaty of mutual defense and cooperation with Pyongyang, supplying North Korea not only with fuel and food, but also with materials and technologies to modernize its military, according to South Korean officials and analysts. They warn that the growing expansion of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, if left unchecked, could threaten a delicate military balance around the Korean Peninsula. The disintegration of the old Soviet bloc, and the subsequent collapse of North Korea's economy, created a yawning gap between North and South Korea in their conventional weapons abilities. To counter that, North Korea in recent decades dedicated its limited resources to developing nuclear warheads and their delivery missiles. Still, the North's conventional weaponry remained many years behind that of South Korea and the United States, which keeps 28,500 troops in the South. Advertisement Russia's war against Ukraine has brought Kim a military bonanza. It gave North Korea opportunities to test its weapons and troops and to gain valuable insights into modern warfare. Its conventional weapons industry has entered a renaissance, thanks to Russia's insatiable demand for its artillery shells and missiles and the military technology flowing the other way, South Korean analysts said. Kim now has greater ability to destabilize the East Asia region and more leverage should he sit down again with President Donald Trump or China's leader, Xi Jinping, they said. 'North Korea appears to be entering a strategic golden age,' said Yang Uk, an expert on the North Korean military at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. The alliance has benefited President Vladimir Putin of Russia, too. For months, Russian officials concealed the fact that North Korean troops were taking part in efforts to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region, in western Russia. It was only at the end of April, when most of the Ukrainian-occupied area had been liberated, that the head of the Russian General Staff said during a public meeting with Putin that North Korean troops 'provided significant assistance' to the Russian army there. Perhaps more valuably, North Korea sent millions of artillery rounds, as well as many missiles, to Russia. South Korean officials said that North Korea was also cooperating with Russia to build drones for both nations. Russia's resurgence in the war has given Putin a stronger hand in any potential peace negotiations with Ukraine, and with Trump. The courtship between Kim and Putin deepened when they met in Russia's Far East in September 2023. Kim was shown around a Russian space-launch station, an aircraft manufacturing factory, and air force and naval bases, compiling what South Korean analysts called a 'bucket list' of Russian technologies he wanted to get his hands on. Advertisement Last June, Kim invited Putin to Pyongyang, the North's capital, to sign an alliance treaty. Soon, North Korean troops began streaming into Russia, numbering up to 15,000 in all, according to South Korean intelligence officials North Korean troops took part in recapturing two villages in the Kursk region, said Dmitri Kuznets, an analyst with the news outlet Meduza, which was outlawed by the Kremlin and operates from Latvia. But the true extent of the troops' contributions has been debated. Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, said in a post on Telegram, a popular messaging app, that the participation of Koreans in real battles was Kim's idea, so that he could test his army. 'All of them are getting an incredible experience now and will come back as real veterans,' Shiryaev said. 'There are no such people in the South Korean army, which undoubtedly fills Kim Jong Un with pride.' Analysts in South Korea and other Western powers have been tallying Kim's hardware gains. They have monitored aircraft and ships carrying what appeared to be Russian military technologies to North Korea. Kim's prioritizing of drones alone would help significantly narrow the gap with South Korea in conventional weapons, analysts said. In April, Kim and his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, widely believed to be his heir, attended the launching of the North's first naval destroyer, the Choe Hyon. He later watched the ship test-fire various missiles. One of them was called a supersonic cruise missile by North Korea, and it resembled the nuclear-capable Russian cruise missile 3M22 Zircon, said Hong Min, a military expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. Advertisement While launching the destroyer, Kim Jong Un reconfirmed that he was also building a nuclear-powered submarine. Multiple UN Security Council resolutions ban arms trading with North Korea. But military cooperation with Russia 'has proved a perfect route for the North to evade sanctions and overcome its technological limits,' said a report from the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul. There remains doubt over how much sensitive technology Russia is willing to share with North Korea. North Korea has repeatedly failed to launch military spy satellites. And to build a nuclear-powered submarine, the country would need a small nuclear reactor. Such a submarine, which would vastly improve its ability to cross the Pacific and launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland, was so politically risky that Moscow would be 'very, very cautious,' said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. But the mere threat it could happen gives Kim more leverage, and North Korean state media has shown part of what it said was a nuclear-powered submarine under construction. 'It's the most dangerous weapon North Korea has unveiled so far,' said Hong, of the Korea Institute for National Unification. This article originally appeared in
The Star
a day ago
- Science
- The Star
China unveils world's first AI nuke inspector
Chinese scientists have developed an artificial intelligence system that can distinguish real nuclear warheads from decoys, marking the world's first AI-driven solution for arms control verification. The technology, disclosed in a peer-reviewed paper published in April by researchers with the China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE), could bolster Beijing's stance in stalled international disarmament talks while fuelling debate on the role of AI in managing weapons of mass destruction. The project, which is built on a protocol jointly proposed by Chinese and American scientists more than a decade ago, faced three monumental hurdles. These were – training and testing the AI using sensitive nuclear data (including real warhead specifications); convincing Chinese military leaders that the system would not leak tech secrets; and persuading sceptical nations, particularly the United States, to abandon Cold War-era verification methods. So far, only the first step has been cleared. 'Due to the classified nature of nuclear warheads and component designs, specific data cannot be disclosed here,' the CIAE team wrote in their Atomic Energy Science and Technology paper. The admission highlights the delicate balance between scientific transparency and inevitable opacity around nuclear arms control efforts. The AI verification protocol, dubbed 'Verification Technical Scheme for Deep Learning Algorithm Based on Interactive Zero Knowledge Protocol', employs a multiple-stage process blending cryptography and nuclear physics. Using Monte Carlo simulations, researchers generated millions of virtual nuclear components – some containing weapons-grade uranium, others disguised with lead or low-enriched materials. A many-layer deep learning network was trained on neutron flux patterns, achieving extremely high accuracy in distinguishing real warheads. To prevent the AI gaining direct access to top-secret nuclear weapon design, a 400-hole polythene wall was erected between the inspection system and real warhead, scrambling neutron signals and masking warhead geometries while allowing radiation signatures to pass. If inspectors and host nations engage in several rounds of randomised verification, deception odds can be reduced to nearly zero, according to the study. The system's linchpin lies in its ability to verify chain-reaction capability – the essence of nuclear weapons – without exposing design details. The AI knows nothing about the warhead's engineering, but it can still determine authenticity through partially obscured radiation signals. CIAE, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), serves as a critical research hub for nuclear weapons technology. Yu Min, a nuclear physicist from the institute, pioneered groundbreaking advancements in miniaturising China's nuclear arsenal, devising unique technical solutions that earned him the revered title of 'Father of China's Hydrogen Bomb'. The disclosure arrives amid frozen US-China nuclear negotiations. While US President Donald Trump repeatedly sought to restart talks, Beijing has resisted, citing disparities in arsenal sizes (China's estimated 600 warheads vs America's 3,748) and distrust of legacy verification methods. 'In nuclear warhead component verification for arms control, it is critical to ensure that sensitive weapon design information is not acquired by inspectors while maintaining verification effectiveness,' the CIAE team wrote. 'Current solutions primarily rely on information barrier methods developed by national laboratories in Britain, the United States and Russia. These barriers constitute complex automated systems that process highly classified measurement data during inspections, ultimately displaying only binary 'yes/no' results. 'However, such systems suffer from multiple drawbacks: their inherent complexity demands mutual trust between inspecting and inspected parties against hidden back doors, while excessive dependence on electronic systems creates vulnerabilities for potential exploitation of electronic/IT back doors to illicitly access sensitive information,' they added. To ensure thrust and transparency, the CIAE team said that the AI could be jointly coded, trained and verified by the inspecting and inspected party. Before testing the nuclear warheads, the AI deep learning software 'must be sealed', they said. The technology's unveiling coincides with heightened global anxiety over AI militarisation. While Washington and Beijing have jointly banned AI from nuclear launch decisions, the construction and deployment of large-scale smart defence infrastructure such as the Golden Dome proposed by the Trump administration would inevitably employ AI to guide or even control automated weapons to achieve quick response on a global scale. -- South China Morning Post
Hindustan Times
a day ago
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Bleeding blue: All that we are looking to extract from the oceans
We know the ocean covers over 70% of the planet. What most of us don't really think about is that more than 60% of that vast expanse lies outside national boundaries, an unregulated immensity known as the high seas. For most of human history, oceans have been mythologised rather than mapped. The dividing lines that do exist have been drawn in intriguing and somewhat arbitrary ways. In the 18th century, for instance, a Dutch jurist proposed that a country's sovereign waters should extend as far as a cannon could fire from its coast, which turned out to be about three nautical miles (about 5.5 km). It was a brilliantly pragmatic solution: state control where defence was plausible, and freedom beyond. The so-called 'cannon-shot rule' became law, and lived on until the 20th century. Then came oil rigs, trawlers and submarines, which called for upgrades in maritime monitoring. In 1982, after years of Cold War-era wrangling, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was signed, dividing waters into zones of control. (UNCLOS was ratified in 1994.) Territorial waters were now considered to extend 12 nautical miles (about 22 km) from the coast. Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) extended to 200 nautical miles (about 370 km). Beyond that remain the high seas: vast, largely ungoverned, and increasingly contested. Fruit of the sea? Meanwhile, we famously have better maps of Mars than we do of Earth's oceans. Despite efforts made with satellites, submersibles and robots, an estimated 80% of the ocean remains unexplored. It doesn't help that light begins to dwindle rapidly beyond depths of 200 metres, and pressure builds. The Mariana Trench, for reference, sits at about 11,000 metres below sea level (deeper than Mount Everest is high). It isn't just mystery that lives in these deeps. It is priceless utility. The ocean is our thermostat, our oxygen engine, our pantry and, increasingly, our vault. We have been drilling for oil and gas reserves for decades. Now we are eyeing reserves of metals such as cobalt, nickel and manganese, vital to current green-energy technology. With nodules of these metals just sitting on the floor, there is talk of robots gliding about beneath the seas, gathering them up like underwater fruit. Except one must first determine whose nodules they are, and how to safely reach them. That safety, of course, relates primarily to the marine ecosystems themselves. Hidden treasure In 2023, after years of diplomatic inertia, the UN brokered the High Seas Treaty (officially, the Agreement on Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction; it's a good thing it has a nickname.) The treaty aims to create protected marine areas, mandate environmental assessments, and determine how to share the benefits of marine resources. This is a document born of rising anxiety: over vanishing species, collapsing ecosystems and the accelerating commodification of the deep. The treaty is not yet law. It has not been ratified and it is unclear how many countries will eventually sign on. Meanwhile, the high seas are already being commercially explored. What lies beneath is considered too tempting. Just one area, the 4.5-million-sq-km Clarion-Clipperton Zone between Hawaii and Mexico — an area larger than the European Union — is said to hold more battery-grade metals than all known land reserves. UNCLOS also created the International Seabed Authority (ISA), to regulate mining in international waters. ISA, headquartered in Jamaica, has already issued 31 exploration licences worldwide. Its dual role, to regulate and promote, is an open contradiction. A new gold rush is underway. Our final frontier The biggest risk? That it is already too late to ask the right questions. Unlike forests, the deep-sea floor has no history of human interference. Sediments settle over centuries. Scar them, and the wound may never heal. In a study published in 2020, German researchers returned to a small patch of seabed off the coast of Peru, which they had disturbed 26 years earlier. Their tracks remained. Microbial life hadn't returned. Time had not healed the area; it had simply fossilised the damage. We have no idea how the ocean responds to disturbance. Other recent findings suggest that the nodules that are the focus of our newest gold rush aren't simply inert 'fruit' waiting to be collected. They are biological scaffolds, hosting microbes that may play a crucial role in nutrient cycles and oxygen production. Still, the push continues. Many deep-sea mining companies promise cleaner extraction than on land. Better this, they argue, than poisoned villages and jungles razed to stubble as a result of mining activity. They are not entirely wrong. But the framing is false. The choice may not be a binary. There are other paths: battery innovation, material substitutes, recycling. What we lack isn't cobalt. It is patience, and perhaps humility. And for what? In research labs around the world, new battery chemistries are taking shape: sodium-ion systems that sidestep cobalt entirely, solid-state designs with safer materials. The very need driving seabed mining may disappear, not in decades but in years. There is precedent. In the 1800s, whale oil was essential… for lamps, lubrication, industry. Then came electricity, the lightbulb and fossil fuels. Demand collapsed. Whales didn't survive because we found compassion. They survived because we found something better. What if we're solving for the wrong scarcity? Yet, the machines are already descending. China, the US and the EU are testing new devices. India has secured two ISA exploration licences. Tiny Pacific Island countries are looking forward to profiting from holding the keys to the most accessible expanses, even as sea levels rise to what could be, for them, island-extinction levels. There is a photograph that captures something of the conundrum: a deep-sea octopus guarding its eggs, nestled on a bed of manganese nodules. It is a reminder that the sea isn't a vault. It is a nursery. Our world's wondrous balancing engine. And we don't really know how it works. Yet, our engines of extraction won't wait, neither for innovation nor hindsight. There is a pattern here, and it's not a new one. We rush before we reckon. This time, we are rushing into Earth's oldest, largest, possibly most defining biome. Is it more batteries we need, or more balance? *** In Hindu myth, the gods and demons churned the cosmic ocean to retrieve amrit, the nectar of immortality. But before the amrit, this yielded halahala, a poison so potent it threatened to destroy all life. Shiva, the god of destruction, had to swallow it to save the world. It is the oldest story we tell about extraction: treasure and terror, released together. It is wise to fear the ocean. It has never cared for surface designs. (Kashyap Kompella is an industry analyst and author of two books on AI)
