Latest news with #ColinSnodgrass
Express Tribune
07-02-2025
- Science
- Express Tribune
Asteroid collision risk rises for Earth in 2032
Listen to article The likelihood of a giant asteroid striking Earth in 2032 has increased, According to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid 2024 YR now carries a 2.3% chance of collision, up from the previously estimated 1.3% in December. This means there's now a 1-in-43 chance of the asteroid hitting Earth on its closest approach, expected on December 22, 2032, However experts say there's no need for panic Just a week ago, the European Space Agency (ESA) gave the asteroid a much lower 1.3% chance, estimating a near 99% probability it would pass Earth without incident. The space rock, measuring up to 90 meters in diameter, is similar in size to the 1908 Tunguska asteroid that exploded in Siberia, flattening 830 square miles 2,150 square kilometers of forest. Despite the raised odds, astronomers are urging calm. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that,' said Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. He added that the more data collected, the more accurate future predictions will be. Fluctuations in impact probabilities are common for asteroids that are years away, and astronomers expect the chances of a collision to decrease as new data comes in. ESA's video. 'How asteroids go from threat to no sweat,' explains that updated information about the asteroid's speed and trajectory will likely bring its risk closer to zero in the coming months. NASA's planetary defense coordination office also agrees that the chances of an impact will decrease. 'There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data has come in,' said researcher Molly Wasser. The asteroid has been rated a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from zero (no risk) to 10 (a civilization-ending impact). While this places 2024 YR4 at the top of official risk lists, it still poses little cause for alarm, say experts. NASA's successful Dart mission in 2022, which deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its trajectory, has also provided hope for future asteroid defense. 'This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required,' said Snodgrass. 'We have the technology, and it has been tested.' Despite the increased odds, astronomers believe that this asteroid is more likely to pass harmlessly by Earth, and further observations will help to refine predictions and clarify the risk.
The Guardian
06-02-2025
- Science
- The Guardian
Asteroid's chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don't panic!
It might not be the world-ending apocalypse foretold in the Netflix drama Don't Look Up, but astronomers have significantly upped the odds of a direct hit from a giant asteroid currently hurtling towards Earth. According to Nasa's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (Cneos), the odds of a strike in 2032 by the space rock that goes by the somewhat unassuming name 2024 YR are calculated to be 2.3% – a one-in-43 chance. Barely a week ago, the European Space Agency (Esa) gave the asteroid a 1.3% chance of hitting the planet on 22 December that year, the day it will make its closest approach to Earth. Or, phrased another way, it had an almost 99% probability of passing by without incident. At up to 300ft (90m) in width, according to Nasa-funded skywatchers who spotted it from a telescope in Chile just before new year, the object is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid that flattened about 830 square miles (2,150 sq km) of remote Siberian forest when it exploded in 1908. Astronomers, however, are urging Earth dwellers not to panic, even though 2024 YR4 has rocketed to the top of official impact risk lists on both sides of the Atlantic, and has the rare rating of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale that ranges from a no-risk zero to a civilization-ending 10. Fluctuations in the chances of a strike so far out from an object's arrival are common, and in a YouTube video entitled 'How asteroids go from threat to no sweat', Esa explains that the likelihood of 2024 YR4 ever striking the planet will drop to virtually zero once updated data on speed and trajectory is received in the coming weeks and months. The planetary defense coordination office of Nasa, the US space agency, agrees. 'There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,' researcher Molly Wasser said in a statement. 'New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to zero as more data come in.' Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian last week: 'Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.' Other recent similar scares would appear to reinforce the message. The asteroid 99942 Apophis, discovered in 2004 and larger than the Eiffel Tower, was once given a rating of four on the Torino scale, but was eventually calculated to be no threat to Earth on any of its close passes for at least the next 100 years. Yet even if 2024 YR4 continues on towards Earth with a high chance of impact, the success of Nasa's Dart mission in 2022, in which a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into an asteroid the size of a football stadium and altered its trajectory, gives grounds for optimism for the future of humanity. 'This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested,' Snodgrass said.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Interception Plans Underway For Large Asteroid That Could Hit Earth In 2032
It's like something out of a movie script. A planetary defense response is underway after an asteroid discovered at the end of 2024 was found to have a small chance of colliding with earth in the coming years. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 98.7% chance of passing right by Earth in 2032, but that leaves a 1.3% chance that it could smack right into us. That's a 1-in-83 chance, New Scientist reports. It rates a 3 on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, and only one other asteroid has been rated higher since the scale's inception in 1999. That was Apophis in 2004, which was initially rated a 4, but was later downgraded after further observation. (MORE: Asteroid Holds The Key Building Blocks To Life) The asteroid now sits at the top of the European Space Agency's asteroid risk list. 2024 YR4 is about the size of a building, which would inflict localized destruction if it did strike Earth. Two UN-endorsed global asteroid response groups have been activated since the asteroid's discovery. The International Asteroid Warning Network is working to more accurately determine the asteroid's orbit and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group is working on a plan to intervene with the asteroid if necessary. This plan could involve intervention via spacecraft to deflect the asteroid off course, according to The Guardian. According to the European Space Agency, it's common for an asteroid's impact probability to rise before quickly being assessed as zero after additional observations. 'Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,' Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told The Guardian. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.'
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
World's Space Agencies Say Asteroid Has 1.3% Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032
The world's space agencies are keeping close watch on an asteroid heading our way, because there's currently a 1 in 83 chance it will hit our planet in the next eight years. Asteroid 2024 YR4, as it's been designated, was flagged by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) for its potential to impact Earth on 22 December 2032. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever," Catalina Sky Survey engineer David Rankin wrote on Bluesky. "Most likely outcome is still a near miss." But the asteroid's size, and the non-zero chance of it hitting Earth within the next 50 years, is enough to prick the ears of two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups. The IAWN will coordinate international organisations to continue monitoring 2024 YR4, and if necessary, develop a strategy for world governments in preparing for the hit and its consequences. "The first step in the planetary defence response is to trigger further observations," astronomer Colin Snodgrass from the University of Edinburgh told Ian Sample at The Guardian. "If these observations don't rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterisation measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions." Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first sighted on 27 December 2024 by a telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. This telescope is part of a network that automatically scans the sky looking for early warning signs of asteroid impacts, aptly named the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). The asteroid's diameter, while not enough to wreak immediate global havoc, is definitely enough to cause severe damage to whatever region it hits, potentially spanning as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site. It's too soon to know where on Earth that would be, if it happens at all, but the IAWN's Potential Impact Notification lists the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia as potential sites. A range of international agencies, including the European Space Agency, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, and the Italian Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site, agree that the chance of the asteroid hitting Earth is just over 1 percent. Nonetheless, it's been rated 3 on the Torino Scale, which means we should pay it some attention, though it's likely to be reassigned to 0 with further telescopic observations. Only one asteroid in history has ever received a higher Torino scale rating. Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis set the record at 4 in December 2024. Thankfully, recent calculations have ruled out the possibility of Apophis colliding with Earth for the foreseeable future. The odds of near-Earth asteroids colliding with our planet tend to rise in the early days of sighting them. At first we have just a few points of reference from which to calculate the asteroid's orbit. Because its path is less certain, at this stage the 'risk corridor' is very wide, increasing its potential overlap with Earth. As we receive more data by watching the asteroid's movements, we can be more certain of its predicted path, so it becomes narrower. Earth is usually still in the line of fire at this point. Because the path is more certain, the risk of the asteroid hitting Earth always appears to increase at this point. But ultimately, the more certain that path becomes, the narrower it gets, which in most cases reveals an asteroid trajectory that is both very certain, and, thankfully, not on course for Earth. It's particularly difficult to accurately predict asteroid 2024 YR4's path at the moment, because it has an elongated (eccentric) orbit around the Sun, and it's currently moving in almost a straight line away from Earth. So its uncertainty region is massive. Meanwhile, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will discuss the asteroid at a routine meeting in Vienna in the coming week. If the asteroid impact risk remains above 1 percent, the group will provide advice to the United Nations and consider our options, which will likely involve diverting or destroying the asteroid via spacecraft, like NASA's Dart mission. "This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested," Snodgrass said. NASA Captures 'Most Intense Volcanic Eruption Ever' on Jupiter's Moon Io Could We Use Gravitational Waves For Space Communication? Scientists Are Exploring Giant Radio Galaxy Could Hold 30 Milky Ways, Astronomers Say
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032
A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies. Based on measurements gathered so far, the asteroid has a 1.3% chance of smashing into Earth on 22 December 2032, or put another way, a nearly 99% probability of barrelling past without incident. 'Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,' said Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.' The asteroid ranks as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that merits attention from astronomers because there is a 1% or greater chance of a collision in the next decade that would inflict 'localised destruction'. The Torino scale ranges from zero, when there is no risk, to 10 when a collision is certain and poses a threat to the future of civilisation as we know it. The only asteroid ever to receive a higher rating is Apophis which made headlines in 2004. Apophis was initially rated a four on the Torino scale but was later downgraded as observations showed that it posed no threat for at least a century. Gareth Collins, professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, said that an increase in monitoring of near Earth objects will make detections like asteroid 2024 YR4 much more common. 'At this stage, the best thing to do is to continue tracking the asteroid for as long as possible so that we can predict its trajectory with more confidence,' he said. A space rock the size of asteroid 2024 YR4 would not unleash a mass extinction event as happened 66m years ago: the asteroid that triggered the demise of the dinosaurs was 10 to 15km wide. But 100 metre-wide space rocks, which impact Earth on average every few thousand years, still have the potential to cause catastrophic damage on the city scale. The detection of the asteroid has activated two UN-endorsed global asteroid response groups. The International Asteroid Warning Network has swung into action to make further observations of the asteroid and narrow down uncertainties in its orbit. The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group has also been alerted. They would propose any plan to intervene, perhaps by deflecting the asteroid with an intercepting spacecraft, a technique tested in Nasa's Dart mission. The asteroid is now hurtling away from Earth in almost a straight line making it hard for astronomers to determine its orbit with high accuracy. Astronomers aim to make more detailed observations over the coming months before the rock fades from view. If those measurements do not rule out an impact in 2032, the asteroid will probably remain on space agencies' risk lists until it comes back into view in 2028. Related: Trump asks Musk to bring back two astronauts 'stranded' on space station 'The first step in the planetary defence response is to trigger further observations,' Snodgrass said. 'If these observations don't rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterisation measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions. This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested.'
