26-05-2025
Is the UK really becoming an ‘island of strangers'?
Immigration has arguably been the most notable demographic and social change in contemporary Britain — and, at the same time, a persistent focus of political debate. For decades, successive governments have vowed closer control over migration, only to be challenged by events.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent address encapsulated this tension. In announcing a new white paper to reduce legal migration, he said, 'Nations rely on rules – equitable rules. Without them, we risk an island of strangers, not a country that walks forward together.'
But is the UK actually on the brink of turning into an 'island of strangers', or is this perception more closely linked to policy outcomes?
The UK's migration tale is neither new nor abrupt. Since 1994, net migration has been positive every year. Earlier, arrival and departure were fairly balanced. But since the mid-1990s, the volume and rate of inflow have drastically changed.
Following World War II, the 1950s saw considerable migration to the UK, with net annual migration ranging between 20,000 and 50,000 annually. This migration was stimulated by severe labour shortages in the aftermath of the war. The British Nationality Act 1948 offered citizenship and free entry to Commonwealth citizens, who were invited to help rebuild the country. The arrival of the HMT Empire Windrush in 1948 signalled the start of migration from the Caribbean. Between 1948 and the early 1960s, approximately 500,000 Caribbean migrants, mainly from Jamaica, came to the UK to work in transport, health, and manufacturing. They greatly mixed the urban population, especially in London and Birmingham, laying the early foundations of multicultural Britain.
The national population grew from 50.2 million in 1951 to 51.4 million in 1961, with the foreign-born population representing about 4 per cent of the total population, mainly from Commonwealth countries.
The 1960s were a time of legislative controls. The Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962 established a system of work vouchers, restricting entry each year to between 30,000 and 50,000. Although this reduced Caribbean migration, it also prompted a pre-legislation influx of South Asians from India and Pakistan, leading to the establishment of these communities across the UK.
Net migration during this decade was between 10,000 and 30,000 per year, adding an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 to population growth. Between 1961 and 1971, the population grew from 51.4 million to 54.4 million. By the end of the decade, the foreign-born population had risen to 5 per cent, while ethnic minority populations numbered around 1 million, or 2 per cent of the population.
In 1968, further controls were introduced through another Commonwealth Immigrants Act, specifically targeting East African Asians holding British passports. This move further restricted Commonwealth migration and reflected growing political and public concerns over immigration levels.
Migration levels fell sharply in the 1970s as the UK government tightened immigration policy. The Immigration Act 1971 introduced a framework that subjected non-Commonwealth migrants to eligibility criteria and restricted Commonwealth access to those with direct UK ties. These reforms led to significant decreases in South Asian and Caribbean immigration.
The national population increased modestly from 54.4 million to 56.2 million, mainly due to natural increase. The foreign-born population remained steady at around 6 per cent. Emigration also rose during this period, with many British citizens relocating to countries such as Australia and Canada. Net migration tended to be negative, ranging from -10,000 to +20,000 annually, resulting in little to no impact on overall population growth.
One notable exception was the resettlement of approximately 28,000 Ugandan Asians in 1972, following their expulsion by Idi Amin. Their arrival significantly boosted the Asian population in cities like Leicester. However, due to restrictive immigration policies, migration's demographic impact during this decade remained limited.
The 1980s were marked by low migration levels, driven by economic recession and restrictive immigration policies. Net migration stood between 10,000 and 30,000 annually, contributing about 100,000 to 200,000 to population growth across the decade. The national population increased slightly, from 56.2 million to 56.8 million by 1991.
The foreign-born population rose to 7 per cent, and ethnic minority groups reached around 3 million, or 5 per cent of the total population. The British Nationality Act 1981 redefined the notion of citizenship, limiting entitlements for Commonwealth-born individuals after 1983 and reducing the incentive to migrate. Although some migration from Hong Kong occurred amid uncertainty over the 1997 handover to China, most migrants were deterred by the restrictive measures and poor economic conditions.
Migration trends shifted in the 1990s. The Asylum and Immigration Appeals Act 1993 and the Asylum and Immigration Act 1996 had introduced stricter procedures in response to concerns over illegal immigration. The new Labour government in 1997 further liberalised immigration policies. The 1993 Maastricht Treaty, which established the European Union, also enhanced freedom of movement across Europe, further increasing EU migration to the UK.
After 1997, reforms opened work and student visa routes, encouraging migration from outside the EU, particularly from South Asia and Africa. During this decade, net migration accelerated to between 50,000 and 100,000 per year, adding an estimated 500,000 to 700,000 to population growth.
Between 1991 and 2001, the UK population increased from 56.8 million to 58.8 million. The foreign-born share of the population rose to 8 per cent, and ethnic minority groups grew to 4.6 million, or 8 per cent.
The early 2000s marked a turning point in the UK migration trends. Immigration began to make a substantial and sustained contribution to population growth for the first time.
Between 2000 and 2011, net migration averaged between 200,000 and 300,000 annually, increasing the UK's population by approximately 2.5 million. The total population rose from 58.8 million to 62.3 million by 2011. The foreign-born population doubled to 9 million, comprising 14 per cent of the total, while ethnic minorities made up 10 per cent of the population.
A key moment came in 2004 when eight Central and Eastern European countries — Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia — joined the European Union. The Labour government chose not to apply transitional controls on these new members, a decision that led to a sharp increase in EU migration, with net arrivals reaching 100,000 by 2007.
This open-door policy resulted in a large inflow of workers from countries like Poland, whose impact was especially visible in sectors such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality. Meanwhile, relaxed visa rules for non-EU migrants further accelerated migration levels.
By 2010, as per Migration Watch UK, over a third of births involve at least one foreign born parent, Even the introduction of the Points-Based System (PBS) in 2008, designed to regulate and simplify non-EU immigration, failed to significantly slow down the pace of arrivals. Even the introduction of the Points-Based System (PBS) in 2008, designed to regulate and simplify non-EU immigration, failed to significantly slow down the pace of arrivals.
With the Conservatives in power from 2010, the rhetoric shifted. Ministers promised to cut net migration to the 'tens of thousands'. But year after year, the numbers failed to align with the ambition.
Between 2010 and 2020, net migration ranged from 150,000 to 300,000 annually, adding around 2 million people to the UK's population. The population reached 66.4 million by 2020. By the time of the 2021/22 Census, the foreign-born population had hit 10.7 million, or 16 per cent of the total population.
A series of toughened policies followed. Skilled work visas were capped at 20,700. Minimum salary thresholds rose. But EU migration, which had peaked at 189,000 in 2015, began to fall after the 2016 Brexit referendum. By 2024, EU net migration had reversed to -95,000.
Yet the overall numbers didn't drop. Why? Because post-2020, the UK's Points-Based System was revised again. Skill requirements were lowered to A-level equivalent, making it easier to fill labour gaps, especially in healthcare. By 2023, the UK granted 336,007 work visas, many of them to non-EU workers. The decline in EU workers was, in effect, replaced by inflows from elsewhere.
For more than 25 years now, immigration has outpaced emigration by over 100,000 people annually. Brexit was supposed to reset that. By leaving the EU, Britain clawed back control of its borders. But when the points-based system was introduced in 2021, the numbers rose even higher. Net migration reached 906,000 in the year to June 2023 and remained very high at 728,000 the following year.
Between 2020 and 2025, the UK is projected to add 2.5 to 3 million people through migration alone. The population is forecast to reach 71-72.5 million by 2025. By 2023, approximately 18 per cent of the population was foreign-born, with non-EU migrants accounting for 63 per cent of that group.
In 2021, the UK introduced its post-Brexit immigration regime. The emphasis was on skills, salaries, and control, with the PBS applied equally to EU and non-EU migrants.
Lower skill thresholds in 2020 and the inclusion of care workers in 2022 triggered a sharp rise in care visas. In 2023 alone, 114,023 care worker visas were issued, primarily to applicants from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. Two humanitarian schemes also added to the total – over 200,000 people arrived from Ukraine between 2022 and 2023. But as pressures mounted – both economic and political – the government pivoted again.
In 2024, it began tightening visa rules, raising salary thresholds, and banning student and care worker dependents. These changes are already having an effect: immigration fell 32 per cent year-on-year by mid-2024, and net migration is projected to fall to between 315,000 and 350,000 by 2026. Labour, looking ahead to a possible return to power, has promised to go further. Its 2025 proposals aim to raise skill requirements and eliminate the care visa route.
If trends continue, the 2020s may become a decade of attempted correction – a political reckoning with decades of migration policy misalignment.
The demographic shift is undeniable. But does that make Britain an 'island of strangers'?
According to experts, Europe's growing scepticism toward immigration is not a spontaneous development but the result of decades of accumulated pressures — economic stagnation, social fragmentation, and inconsistent policy enforcement.
As Dr Manish Barma, a Research Associate at the Chintan Research Foundation, a think tank based out of New delhi, explains: 'Europe's industrial base has shrunk and one after the other, they have been faced with several crises… So, things have to be put into a particular context, your sovereign debt crisis, your refugee asylum crisis, which is wrongly attributed to an immigration crisis, and of course, now the war in Ukraine.'
This economic downturn has directly impacted public attitudes. Dr Barma adds that Britain, for instance, has yet to return to pre-Covid industrial manufacturing levels, in contrast to India's quick post-pandemic recovery. 'Social fissures are always managed as long as the economy does good… but once you have this very combustible combination of societal unrest coupled with economic distress, this is when things get difficult for the government.'
A deeper examination of public opinion supports this view. According to a survey conducted in May by More in Common, an initiative founded in memory of Labour MP Jo Cox, pessimism about immigration now spans across Britain's political spectrum. The survey used advanced political science and anthropological tools to map attitudes, not just yes-no answers, revealing anxieties about identity, integration, and economic strain. This backdrop is what informs remarks like Prime Minister Keir Starmer's controversial reference to Britain as an 'island of the strangers.' As Dr Barma notes, 'This comment hasn't come from nowhere. There is a history behind that comment. This has been building up, simmering tensions.'
