Latest news with #ComprehensiveNuclear-Test-BanTreaty
Newsweek
25-04-2025
- Science
- Newsweek
Earthquakes Could Be Hiding Secret Nuclear Tests, Say Seismologists
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Earthquakes could be being used as cover for secret nuclear tests, a newly-published review article by leading seismologists has cautioned. The findings come as part of a review article by Joshua Carmichael and colleagues at Los Alamos National Laboratory, published in the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. According to the analysis, advanced signal detector technology capable of identifying a 1.7-ton buried explosion with a 97 percent success rate only has a 37 percent success rate when seismic signals from that explosion are hidden within the seismic waveforms of an earthquake happening within 100 seconds and around 250 kilometers away from the explosion. Carmichael's review concluded that the overlapping waveforms of explosion and earthquake "obfuscate the ability of even the most sensitive digital signal detectors we have to identify that explosion." These findings contradict a previous 2012 report on "masking," which suggested earthquake signals could not cover up explosion signals. Warning signs about radioactive materials erected at White Sands Missile Range following the detonation of the world's first atomic bomb in Socorro, New Mexico, Warning signs about radioactive materials erected at White Sands Missile Range following the detonation of the world's first atomic bomb in Socorro, New Mexico, SWInsider/Getty The idea of explosions being masked by natural seismic signals will be a source of concern to scientists tasked with monitoring nuclear testing around the world. Under the terms of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), all nuclear explosions are prohibited whether for military or peaceful purposes. In the review, Carmichael warned that his findings suggest that "background seismicity in regions where there's any sort of seismicity at all is going to measurably and substantially reduce the probability that we can detect signals from an underground explosion at a test site." Carmichael noted that in countries like North Korea, where six nuclear tests have been conducted in the past 20 years, an increase in regional seismic instruments indicates "there's been a lot more low-magnitude seismicity in the vicinity of test sites than we initially realized." North Korea's nuclear program was recently described as being "completely off the charts," with South Korea already being prepared for a potential attack. The review also highlighted how the natural signals from earthquake swarms and other repeating seismic events could also be hidden within overlapping waveforms. In these instances, the masking effect could potentially lead to a drop from 92 percent to 16 percent in detection rates Carmichael said: "This may mean that we probably underestimate a lot of the low magnitude seismicity that is sourced during a swarm or an aftershock sequence." "In other words, we could be largely undercounting the number of earthquakes that occur in these swarms or in certain aftershock sequences." The theory of explosion masking has proven to be difficult to prove in practice. This is largely down to a lack of explosions to examine as well as limited data containing both natural seismic signals and explosions. Rather than simulate explosion data to reach their findings, Carmichael and his colleagues utilized data on explosions and natural seismicity at the Nevada National Security Site. Scaling down the amplitude of the explosion data, they then mixed this waveform with earthquake signals to try and determine if the two could be differentiated by detectors. It's important to note that a coinciding earthquake alone would not be enough to cover up an explosion even of this kind. Multiple factors go into effective nuclear test monitoring, such as looking for the presence of certain radionuclides in the atmosphere. Newsweek has contacted Nuclear Security Technologies, a company at the forefront of detecting and verifying potential nuclear tests worldwide through seismic data, for comment. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about seismology? Let us know via science@ Reference Carmichael, J. D., Delbridge, B. G., & Alfaro‐Diaz, R. (2025). The Reduced Detection Rate of Signals That Are Hidden by Earthquakes: Case Studies with Spotlight Detectors That Operate at Seismic Arrays. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
Russia Today
30-01-2025
- Science
- Russia Today
US to test aging plutonium in its nuclear arsenal
The US is preparing for another 'subcritical' nuclear experiment this spring, to test whether the decades-old plutonium at the core of its nuclear weapons has degraded, the National Public Radio (NPR) network reported on Wednesday. Such tests are not full-scale nuclear tests, meaning they do not use enough fissile material to produce a self-sustaining reaction. Washington insists such experiments are not prohibited under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which forbids nuclear test explosions in all environments. Both the US and Russia signed the 1996 accord but stopped short of ratifying it. Neither nation has conducted live nuclear tests since the early 1990s. Code-named 'Nob Hill,' the plutonium-testing procedure will be performed at the US PULSE facility in Nevada. The test will take place as part of a project called Cygnus, which is considered one of the US government's most secretive science projects, NPR claimed. 'The explosion will be tiny, an unimaginably small fraction of a nuclear weapon's true power, and the US government says there will not be a runaway nuclear reaction, even a little one,' Tim Beller, who is directing the planned test, told a group of journalists believed to have been allowed to tour a secretive nuclear weapons laboratory by the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Since plutonium forms the core of America's nuclear arsenal – much of it produced decades ago – these tests aim to address aging concerns, while also contributing to the modernization of existing weapons, the report noted. As the plutonium ages, it decays radioactively, releasing helium atoms. Those atoms can form bubbles and damage the plutonium metal's structure, which could have a significant impact on the material response, Ivan Otero, a nuclear weapons scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, told the outlet. READ MORE: Russia could resume nuclear tests – deputy FM Discussions about nuclear testing come amid a global resurgence of nuclear weapons, NPR said, quoting Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, who warned, 'The risk is significant.' The US, Russia's main nuclear rival, conducted its last full-scale nuclear test in 1992 and has since relied on computer simulations and subcritical tests. The last known test of this type took place in May, with Moscow saying it was 'looking closely at what is happening' at American test sites and that 'signals' coming from Washington suggest the possible further development of American nuclear weapons. In November 2023, Russia downgraded its participation in the CTBT to signatory status, stating the move was intended to restore parity with the US. Moscow emphasized that this did not indicate plans to resume underground nuclear testing. READ MORE: Putin supports idea of reducing nuclear stockpiles – Trump Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow should be ready to resume nuclear testing if the US does. However, he has repeatedly stressed that for Moscow the use of nuclear weapons is a 'last resort.' This month, US President Donald Trump stated that he hopes to hold talks with Russia and China on reducing nuclear weapons stockpiles. Moscow is ready to resume disarmament negotiations with the US as soon as possible, the Kremlin has said.
