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Axios
04-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
CBO: Trump tariffs would bring down deficits by trillions, tax bill widens them
The Congressional Budget Office delivered a double shot of projections for the fiscal outlook Wednesday, finding that the Trump administration's signature tax bill would widen deficits, while tariffs would narrow the fiscal gap. Why it matters: The Trump administration argues its trade policies will reduce the deficit, a notion that the new CBO estimates support. But the numbers came shortly after after separate projections showing the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" would be a budget-buster. Driving the news: The tariff increases announced through May 13 would reduce the cumulative budget deficit by $3 trillion, the CBO said, or $2.8 trillion after adjusting for a hit they cause to growth and investment. CBO also calculated that the tariff policies will increase inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, "reducing the purchasing power of households and businesses." The analysis did not factor in legal challenges that put the future of the tariffs in doubt in late May, nor the hike in steel and aluminum tariffs announced late last week and enacted Wednesday. State of play: That came only an hour after a separate update to the CBO "score" of Congressional Republicans' signature legislation for tax and spending cuts, which found it would widen the cumulative deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. CBO found it would reduce revenue by $3.7 trillion while reducing outlays by $1.3 trillion. That estimate did not include modeling potential feedback effects from economic growth, which Republican leaders argue will reduce its deficit-widening impact. Between the lines: The possibility that tariff revenue will reduce deficits more than the "Big, Beautiful Bill" will widen them could be a source of optimism for fiscal hawks, given massive projected deficits. Yes, but: There are considerable drawbacks in counting the tariff revenue in projecting long-term fiscal policy. The president has been inclined to change them on a moment's notice, offering relief in the context of negotiations.


The Hill
16-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
FEMA ‘not ready' for hurricane season: document
The Big Story The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is 'not ready' for hurricane season, which starts June 1, an internal document warns as President Trump eyes eliminating the department entirely. © AP Internal slides obtained by The Hill state that, 'As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood, thus FEMA is not ready.' The slides also state that per a hurricane season 2025 assessment, 'resources are reduced' and the 'quality of people lost cannot be replaced right away.' And it says the routine readiness process 'has been derailed this year due to other activities like staffing and contracts.' FEMA is the federal agency in charge of coordinating responses to disasters, working alongside states and localities to do so. It also helps communities rebuild after they've been hit. The agency has become a major target of the Trump administration, with the president and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem expressing interest in axing it. The slides obtained by The Hill raise concerns about this approach. 'If an organization hears it should be eliminated or abolished, the resources and cooperation are not there. Intent cannot be wind down and be ready to support [the] nation in a major response,' the slides state. CNN, which first detailed agency documents saying FEMA is 'not ready' for hurricane season, reported that the finding comes at acting agency head David Richardson's direction. The Department of Homeland Security told CNN that FEMA 'is fully activated in preparation for Hurricane Season.' 'The slide was used during a daily meeting Acting Administrator David Richardson has held every day titled Hurricane Readiness Complex Problem Solving. In other words, exactly what the head of an emergency management agency should be doing before Hurricane Season,' a spokesperson told the news outlet. Read more at Welcome to The Hill's Energy & Environment newsletter, I'm Rachel Frazin — keeping you up to speed on the policies impacting everything from oil and gas to new supply chains. Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here. Essential Reads How policy will affect the energy and environment sectors now and in the future: GOP bill makes heavy cuts to green energy credits in its fine print Congressional Republicans' phase-out of the tax credits for climate friendly energy sources are expected to decimate the incentives and raise U.S. emissions. Trump's firing of FEMA director unsettles GOP senators Senate Republicans are unsettled by the Trump administration's decision to fire Cameron Hamilton, the acting director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), for speaking out against Trump's plan to shutter the agency. Utah, Arizona senators launch bipartisan push for water infrastructure funding Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) have launched a bipartisan push aimed at strengthening water infrastructure across the U.S. West — an arid region coping with a growing population and ever-dwindling resources. What We're Reading News we've flagged from other outlets touching on energy issues, the environment and other topics: An Effort to Kill Off Lawsuits Against Oil Giants Is Gaining Steam (The New York Times) An 'inland tsunami': 15 million people are at risk from catastrophic glacial lake outbursts, researchers find (CNN) The U.N. Secretary-General's Searing Message for the Fossil-Fuel Industry (The New Yorker) On Our Radar Upcoming news themes and events we're watching: Next week The House may vote to try to rescind a Biden administration air pollution rule Tuesday Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is slated to appear before the House Appropriations Committees. The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the EPA's budget. Wednesday EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is slated to appear before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. What Others are Reading Two key stories on The Hill right now: Trump's firing of FEMA director unsettles GOP senators Senate Republicans are unsettled by the Trump administration's decision to fire Cameron Hamilton, the acting director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), for speaking out against Trump's plan to shutter the agency. Read more DHS mulls reality show for immigrants seeking US citizenship The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed it is in the early stages of vetting a potential reality show that would have immigrants competing for a fast-track to citizenship. Read more You're all caught up. See you next week! Thank you for signing up! Subscribe to more newsletters here

Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Health care union president ousted in upset election
NEW YORK — Longtime labor leader George Gresham was toppled by his former lieutenants in a contentious race to lead the nation's largest health care union. Gresham, who became president of 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East in 2007, lost his reelection bid by a resounding margin to challenger Yvonne Armstrong, who leads the union's long-term care division, according to data reviewed by POLITICO. Gresham's defeat ushers in a new chapter for the union, which represents 450,000 health care workers across five East Coast states and was once a powerhouse in New York politics. It is very rare for union heads to lose internal elections in New York, a state in which labor holds outsize power in local politics. 1199SEIU helped elevate Bill de Blasio to the mayoralty when he was lagging in the polls 12 years ago, and it recently endorsed Andrew Cuomo for mayor. Armstrong and her second-in-command, Veronica Turner-Biggs, will take the reins as the organized labor movement and the health care industry contend with the Trump administration's attacks on collective bargaining rights and Congressional Republicans' expected Medicaid cuts. Armstrong and Turner-Biggs, who ran as the Members First Unity Slate, will also preside over an internal reckoning. The union is conducting an independent review of Gresham's spending, after a nine-month POLITICO investigation revealed that he had long used members' dues money to benefit himself, his family and political allies. The House Committee on Education and the Workforce subsequently asked the U.S. Department of Labor to investigate. 'Because of your courage—your heart, your hustle, your belief—we now have the chance to lead our union into a new chapter: one rooted in transparency, unity, and real member power,' the Members First Unity slate wrote in an Instagram post announcing the outcome. In a Facebook post published early Sunday by Gresham's 1 Union 1 Future slate, he congratulated the victorious candidates and recalled his path from rank-and-file member in housekeeping at New York-Presbyterian Hospital to union president. 'No matter who you voted for, at the end of the day we are all part of our precious 1199 family, and I know that we share the same deep love for our union and the labor movement,' Gresham wrote in the statement. 'It has been the honor of my lifetime to serve as your President for the past 17 years.' 'Our solidarity as 1199 members is today more important than ever,' he added. 'We have major work cut out for us in the coming weeks and months to fight back against federal cuts to Medicaid, to negotiate the strongest contracts, and to defend the most vulnerable in our communities.' The union said early Sunday that official results from the election, which was conducted under the supervision of American Arbitration Association, will be posted shortly. Gresham's term as president ends in June.

Politico
05-05-2025
- Health
- Politico
Health care union president ousted in upset election
NEW YORK — Longtime labor leader George Gresham was toppled by his former lieutenants in a contentious race to lead the nation's largest health care union. Gresham, who became president of 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East in 2007, lost his reelection bid by a resounding margin to challenger Yvonne Armstrong, who leads the union's long-term care division, according to data reviewed by POLITICO. Gresham's defeat ushers in a new chapter for the union, which represents 450,000 health care workers across five East Coast states and was once a powerhouse in New York politics. It is very rare for union heads to lose internal elections in New York, a state in which labor holds outsize power in local politics. 1199SEIU helped elevate Bill de Blasio to the mayoralty when he was lagging in the polls 12 years ago, and it recently endorsed Andrew Cuomo for mayor. Armstrong and her second-in-command, Veronica Turner-Biggs, will take the reins as the organized labor movement and the health care industry contend with the Trump administration's attacks on collective bargaining rights and Congressional Republicans' expected Medicaid cuts. Armstrong and Turner-Biggs, who ran as the Members First Unity Slate, will also preside over an internal reckoning. The union is conducting an independent review of Gresham's spending, after a nine-month POLITICO investigation revealed that he had long used members' dues money to benefit himself, his family and political allies . The House Committee on Education and the Workforce subsequently asked the U.S. Department of Labor to investigate . 'Because of your courage—your heart, your hustle, your belief—we now have the chance to lead our union into a new chapter: one rooted in transparency, unity, and real member power,' the Members First Unity slate wrote in an Instagram post announcing the outcome . In a Facebook post published early Sunday by Gresham's 1 Union 1 Future slate, he congratulated the victorious candidates and recalled his path from rank-and-file member in housekeeping at New York-Presbyterian Hospital to union president. 'No matter who you voted for, at the end of the day we are all part of our precious 1199 family, and I know that we share the same deep love for our union and the labor movement,' Gresham wrote in the statement. 'It has been the honor of my lifetime to serve as your President for the past 17 years.' 'Our solidarity as 1199 members is today more important than ever,' he added. 'We have major work cut out for us in the coming weeks and months to fight back against federal cuts to Medicaid, to negotiate the strongest contracts, and to defend the most vulnerable in our communities.' The union said early Sunday that official results from the election, which was conducted under the supervision of American Arbitration Association, will be posted shortly. Gresham's term as president ends in June.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The Battle for Our Memory Is the Battle for Our Country
Crews use concrete saws, jackhammers and excavators as they continue to dismantle the Black Lives Matter Plaza street mural on March 11, 2025 in Washington, DC. Credit - Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images On June 7, 2020, Representative John Lewis made his last public appearance at the Black Lives Matter mural, painted on the road adjacent to the White House. He was so moved by the mural that he wanted to see it in person. Lewis noted, 'The people in D.C. and around the world are sending a powerful message that we will get there.' The installation was commissioned by Mayor Muriel Bowser, who, at the time, recognized that "there are people who are craving to be heard and to be seen and to have their humanity recognized. We had the opportunity to send that message loud and clear on a very important street in our city.' From the vantage point of the summer of nationwide protests following the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, Lewis' appearance on Black Lives Matter Plaza felt like a coda to the unfinished business of the civil rights movement, a symbolic christening of the nation's renewed journey to a more equitable future. His words recalled the prophecy of his mentor, Dr. Martin Luther King, who in his own last public appearance, foretold a racially just future in his 'I've Been to the Mountaintop' speech—one that he might not see, but one that just as surely would arrive. Unlike the public monuments scattered around the country that continue to trumpet the Confederate message that Black lives don't matter, the plaza reflected the opposite commitment. But if this hope-filled public declaration that 'Black Lives Matter' reflected the moral arc of the universe being bent toward justice, then the Mayor's capitulation in 2025 to Congressional Republicans' demands that she dismantle the plaza reflects a twisted spiral in a different direction—to a more-of-the-same future. All too often, decision-makers concede what they deem as symbolic fights in hopes of living to fight another day. 'We have bigger fish to fry' was the beleaguered mayor's comment on being forced to erase a message that she had earlier proclaimed people were craving to hear. But for those who know the dirge, it was a disappointing but not unexpected verse to the chorus of race reform's retrenchment. The removal of Black Lives Matter Plaza was but one example of the erasure that has been the hallmark of the fraught history of African Americans in the United States. In fact, the abandonment of the reckoning it symbolized in less than five years is surprising only because of the speed at which the denouement of the movement arrived. The much more disturbing reality is that the retrenchment is often deeper and more enduring than the modest and frequently symbolic reforms that the crisis engendered. Laws passed during Reconstruction to address more than a century of enslavement in and exclusion from the United States were gutted less than two decades after they were passed, while the racial tyranny of state and extrajudicial violence under which most Black Americans endured extended into the mid-20th century. Following this pattern–not two steps forward, one step back, but the reverse–appears to be the goal of the factions that have recently grabbed power. Beyond reining in the promises surrounding the reckoning is a more profound effort to push the battle well behind the line of scrimmage that prevailed prior to 2020. The destruction of the plaza is of a piece with other efforts to bury any recognition of the past that continues to live in the present—from censoring words and banning books to defunding education and threatening museums. These are not mere excesses in cost-cutting. Wiping out our collective memory is part of their targeted strategy to suppress historical literacy, empathy, and our capacity to fight for a racially just democracy. The protests that engulfed the nation in 2020 were spontaneous expressions of a broad multiracial, intergenerational, and bipartisan coalition of Americans who saw with their own eyes George Floyd's life extinguished with brazen indifference. The movement appeared to have reached far beyond the traditional constituencies that marched for civil rights protections in the '60s. In that moment of horror, everyday Americans witnessed the inhumanity that had long been a feature of anti-Black police violence. Breonna Taylor's killing as a consequence of a botched no-knock raid further amplified that even the comfort of one's home provides no safe harbor from the ways that agents of the state can legally take an innocent woman's life. Black Lives Matter and #SayHerName became conceptual containers for the energies that these tragedies unleashed, finding expression in the protests and demands for accountability that followed. Heightened recognition that laws, institutional culture, and public opinion facilitated practices that disproportionately imperiled Black lives led millions of people in the U.S. and around the world to realize that the endangerment of Black life was not some one-off occurrence expressed by a singular bad actor. Nor was racism a past-tense problem. This confrontation, as one of the largest civil mobilizations in American history, drove new conversations across the country. From the streets of protests to the boardrooms of corporate America emerged a variety of commitments ranging from concrete police reforms to efforts to break the decades-long impasse on improving the life chances of Black Americans. Congress introduced the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act to enhance police accountability; corporate America embraced the imperative to rethink practices that contributed to its glass ceilings; Hollywood expanded its efforts to curate a wider template of cinematic storytelling; media and publishing gave voice to perspectives that had been marginalized; and philanthropy sought to expand the fraction of all its dollars directed to addressing racism's continuing consequences. And yet the sentiment-driven promises of the moment have rarely been sustained beyond the memory of events that produced them. For example, the great conflagration that gave rise to the promise of equal citizenship and equal protection—the Civil War—was momentarily realized in biracial governments in the formerly slave-holding South. But those promises were so thoroughly dismantled that the American story that most people learn overlooks or denigrates it. As the five-year anniversary of the George Floyd protests approaches, not only have Lewis' hopes expressed on Black Lives Matter Plaza not materialized, they have faced stronger headwinds than many among us could have ever imagined. Police reforms that were negotiated as consent decrees have been indefinitely paused. Congressional proposals to enact a range of reforms have been whittled down to bare minimums and never passed. In Kentucky, Breonna's Law—limiting the use of no-knock warrants that put Taylor in harm's way—was passed and yet, no one was held accountable for her death. And despite the chants of #SayHerName, available data suggests that race remains a significant factor in Black women's vulnerability to police violence. While women overall are far less likely than men to experience violence at the hands of police, Black women experience everyday violence in routine interactions with police at rates that match or even exceed the violence encountered by white men. Not only are many institutions stepping away from their unrealized commitments, they are conceding that the impulse to respond to the inhumanity that the world witnessed was flawed. Initially targets of (and now collaborators in) the so-called 'war against woke,' they are now bedfellows with those seeking to ensure that this response to racism will never happen again. In addition, some educators, elected officials, pundits, and others have capitulated to the right-wing defaming of critical race theory and anti-racist education as unpatriotic; they have readily relinquished the principles of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), and some have even demurred in the face of efforts to censor or distort the stories of slavery, the Montgomery bus boycott, Ruby Bridges, and even King's 'Letter From Birmingham Jail.' One need only consult the recent list of words that are unacceptable throughout the federal government and its tentacles into civil society to understand how following these repressive orders would ensure that the stories of Floyd and Taylor cannot be accurately reported, remembered, or meaningfully addressed. Consider trying to teach, research, commemorate, acknowledge, or build any kind of response to the tragedies of 2020 without the essential concepts that convey the meaning of the story: discrimination, racism, bias, Black, oppression, prejudice, systemic, historical, intersectional. In the opening months of the second Trump Administration, we have seen efforts to release police departments from modest efforts to roll back practices that have been proven to harm Black citizens. We have also seen the erasure of Black history from our shared context (including the National Park Service removing references of Harriet Tubman from its webpage for the Underground Railroad, only to reinstate it after massive public outrage), Black leaders from our government, Black students from our universities, and Black employees from corporate America. The very presence of Black people in positions of authority has been associated with a derogatory embodiment of DEI, which has, in turn, been weaponized to undermine what gains from the civil rights movement remain. Even "safer" objectives like combating Black maternal mortality, and environmental racism are at great risk. There is no case to be made for reform, of policing or any other policy, when fighting discrimination itself has been framed as discriminatory. In the years since 2020, it has become evident that neither Floyd's nor Taylor's lost lives could gain lasting traction until a stark and persistent truth was confronted: Americans have always been and will continue to be willing to accept a certain degree of racial injustice to make them feel safe. The failure to sustain meaningful efforts to protect Black Americans from this violence is a feature of our society, not a bug. We merely have to look to Congress's unwillingness to pass legislation criminalizing lynching for more than a century to see the enduring association of Blackness with threat, one which was a bitter harvest of a society founded on the forced and stolen labor of Black bodies. Attempts to curb the lawlessness that reigned in the South had to be balanced with claims that Black populations were in need of discipline and control—an oppressive compromise that stretches into the present. The groundswell of public support for race reform following the Floyd protests gave reason to hope for something different. This echoed similar inflection points in our history. In his biography, John Lewis revealed how Emmett Till's lynching, and Mamie Till's courageous demand that the world bear witness to the profound savagery of white supremacy was a pivotal moment in awakening an entire generation of young Black Americans. Similarly, in the aftermath of Floyd and Taylor's killings, murals of their faces, banners of 'Black Lives Matter," and demands to #SayHerName invited a new generation of young people to reckon with the very real, very human costs of our racist policies. Lewis and his contemporaries—the Freedom Riders, the sit-in demonstrators, and the youth-led wing of the movement that really pushed beyond what we had seen before—were part of the Emmett Till generation. Nine years after Till's death, the movement this generation went on to advance gave us not only the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Medicaid, and other civil rights advances, they also poured a foundation upon which the rights of other marginalized groups could be legally enshrined. These hard-fought victories chipped away at the legacy of slavery and the infrastructure of Jim Crow, while widening the democratic imagination to include indigenous rights, the women's liberation movement, marriage equality, disability rights, and many others. It is precisely this intergenerational and cross-issue transfer of ideas that those pushing the anti-woke agenda aim to suppress. The erasure of both symbolic tributes and tangible policy gains in the aftermath of 2020 not only strikes a blow to the objectives of the great reckoning but also is perhaps the most dangerous, radical attempt to reverse course since the massive resistance to the landmark Brown v. Board of Education decision. This spells worrisome signs for a multiracial democracy that has faltered on its Achilles' heel yet again. The painted-over Black Lives Matter murals are not so different from the erasure of the database of facts and evidence of January 6 from the Department of Justice, the dismantling of the Department of Education, and the firing of thousands of federal workers dedicated to a functioning bureaucracy to support our rights. These are all part of a widespread effort to move away from the possibility of a diverse democracy by making people forget the stakes, challenges, and capacity to overcome. The forces who would want us to forget Floyd and Taylor's names would love nothing more than to dismiss their memories—the same way their killers dismissed their lives. There will be those who will demand more than the erasure of these stories, and the destruction of a public monument that claims that they mattered. We refused to look away then, and we should refuse the invitation to do so now. The battle for our memory is the battle for our country. And for America to matter, Black lives must matter. There is no paving over that truth. Crenshaw, a pioneering scholar and writer on civil rights, critical race theory, Black feminist legal theory, and race, racism and the law, is the Co-founder and Executive Director of the African American Policy Forum, and the founder and Executive Director of the Center for Intersectionality and Social Policy Studies at Columbia Law School. This project was supported by funding from the Center for Policing Equity. Contact us at letters@