Latest news with #ConsumerConfidenceSurvey
Hindustan Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
How consumer sentiment in rural, urban India differs
The Reserve Bank of India published data for its rural consumer confidence survey (R-CCS) for the first time in April 2025. R-CCS data has been published from September 2023 onwards in sync with the period for which we have the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) data. CCS is based on surveys in 19 major Indian cities. A comparison of R-CCS and CCS data shows that consumer sentiment is more bullish in rural areas than urban areas. What explains this difference ? A detailed examination of the data produces more questions than answers. The below charts explain this argument in detail.
Hindustan Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Why are households borrowing more
These pages have discussed the trend of rising household credit and the headwinds it has generated for household savings in the Indian economy. While there has been a lot of alarmist commentary on the rise in household debt and the associated fall in savings, the analysis here stopped short of painting the trend as necessarily bad. What it did point out was that consumption and GDP had become more growth-dependent, and it noted that there was no sign (yet) of households not being able to pay back the loans they have taken. This disclaimer notwithstanding, there is at least one data source – the urban Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) conducted by RBI – which can be used to argue that urban households have seen a skew in the income-spending balance towards the latter in the past few years.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Morgan Stanley reveals mid-year recession, interest rate cut forecast
This year has been tough. After back-to-back 20%-plus returns for the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, concerns about stagflation and recession and the tariff debate have whipsawed the stock market. After the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in mid-February, growing worry that a slowing economy would dent sales and profits plus renewed inflation fear due to newly imposed tariffs sent the benchmark tumbling 19%, just shy of bear-market selloff was so fast and steep that most stocks became oversold, providing tinder for a major relief rally ignited when President Donald Trump temporarily paused many of his reciprocal tariffs. The index has since climbed nearly 20%, erasing much of the losses since February and lifting it into the black year-to-date. Regardless, the seismic pops and drops have taken a toll on investors' psyches, and despite the recent gains, economic worries persist. The jobs market has weakened over the past year, economic activity has slowed, and tariffs will likely remain in place, pressuring inflation and potentially backing the Federal Reserve into a corner. The backdrop has many on Wall Street, including Morgan Stanley, updating their forecasts. The major investment firm recently released a midyear update that includes economic targets and shatters hopes for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is earning his pay this year. The Fed's dual mandate is low inflation and unemployment, two often competing goals. This year the tug-of-war between the two makes setting rates to encourage employment and discourage inflation particularly tough. Inflation has fallen markedly since it peaked above 8% in mid-2022. Still, progress has slowed and inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. In April, the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.3%, nearly matching levels seen in the job market isn't nearly as strong as it was a year or two ago. Unemployment of 4.2% is historically low, but it's up from 3.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, in March 901,000 fewer jobs went unfilled compared with a year earlier, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Jolts report. Layoffs are also on the rise, climbing above 602,000 workers this year, up 87% from a year earlier. The cracks reflect a slowing in overall economic activity that's taking a toll on consumer confidence. First-quarter gross domestic product contracted 0.3%, well below the 3% growth witnessed last summer. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Survey fell sharply to 50.8 in May, down 27% from one year ago. Americans now expect year-ahead inflation to be 7.3%, up from 6.5% last month. The risk of more job losses and inflation reasserting itself because of tariffs, including a 30% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and autos, and a 10% baseline tariff, has tied the Fed's hands. If it cuts rates, as was widely expected earlier this year, it risks fanning inflationary flames. Raising rates might slow inflation but could force us into a recession. Reading the tea leaves isn't easy this year, but that's not stopping Wall Street from trying. Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks, recently released a midyear update to its outlook for Fed interest-rate cuts and the US economy. The forecast won't win many fans hoping for lower mortgage rates or looking for new jobs. Chief US Economist Michael Gapen correctly targeted slower growth and stickier inflation entering 2025. Now, he says that the effective tariff rate of 13% will remain, pressuring the economy while avoiding a recession. Unfortunately, Gapen hasn't seen any real help from the Fed this year. He says the Fed will delay additional interest rate cuts "into 2026." More Experts Treasury Secretary delivers optimistic message on trade war progress Shark Tank's O'Leary sends strong message on economy Buffett's Berkshire has crucial advice for first-time homebuyers As for GDP, Morgan Stanley's growth target is tepid. According to a note sent to clients, Gapen "expects real GDP growth of 1% in 2025 and 2026 (Q4/Q4), with inflation peaking in 3Q25, finishing this year between 3% and 3.5%, and the unemployment rate rising gradually to 4.8% by the end of 2026." Higher unemployment and inflation above current levels aren't necessarily good news for investors hoping for revenue and profit growth tailwinds. Gapen does say, however, that the Fed will be forced to respond to the weaker economy next year, cutting "more deeply than markets currently project to a target range for the Federal Funds Rate of 2.5%-2.75% by end-2026." Currently, the Federal Funds Rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. Overall, his outlook means the US debt situation is worsening. He projects the deficit will climb to 7.1% of GDP from 6.3% in 2025, an "increase of $310 billion year on year."Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
21-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Morgan Stanley reveals mid-year recession, interest rate cut forecast
This year has been tough. After back-to-back 20%-plus returns for the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, concerns about stagflation and recession and the tariff debate have whipsawed the stock market. After the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in mid-February, growing worry that a slowing economy would dent sales and profits plus renewed inflation fear due to newly imposed tariffs sent the benchmark tumbling 19%, just shy of bear-market territory. Related: Jim Cramer sends blunt message on US debt risk to stocks The selloff was so fast and steep that most stocks became oversold, providing tinder for a major relief rally ignited when President Donald Trump temporarily paused many of his reciprocal tariffs. The index has since climbed nearly 20%, erasing much of the losses since February and lifting it into the black year-to-date. Regardless, the seismic pops and drops have taken a toll on investors' psyches, and despite the recent gains, economic worries persist. The jobs market has weakened over the past year, economic activity has slowed, and tariffs will likely remain in place, pressuring inflation and potentially backing the Federal Reserve into a corner. The backdrop has many on Wall Street, including Morgan Stanley, updating their forecasts. The major investment firm recently released a midyear update that includes economic targets and shatters hopes for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is earning his pay this year. The Fed's dual mandate is low inflation and unemployment, two often competing goals. This year the tug-of-war between the two makes setting rates to encourage employment and discourage inflation particularly tough. Inflation has fallen markedly since it peaked above 8% in mid-2022. Still, progress has slowed and inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. In April, the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.3%, nearly matching levels seen in September. Related: Billionaire Ray Dalio has strong reaction to US debt rating cut Meanwhile, the job market isn't nearly as strong as it was a year or two ago. Unemployment of 4.2% is historically low, but it's up from 3.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, in March 901,000 fewer jobs went unfilled compared with a year earlier, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Jolts report. Layoffs are also on the rise, climbing above 602,000 workers this year, up 87% from a year earlier. The cracks reflect a slowing in overall economic activity that's taking a toll on consumer confidence. First-quarter gross domestic product contracted 0.3%, well below the 3% growth witnessed last summer. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Survey fell sharply to 50.8 in May, down 27% from one year ago. Americans now expect year-ahead inflation to be 7.3%, up from 6.5% last month. The risk of more job losses and inflation reasserting itself because of tariffs, including a 30% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and autos, and a 10% baseline tariff, has tied the Fed's hands. If it cuts rates, as was widely expected earlier this year, it risks fanning inflationary flames. Raising rates might slow inflation but could force us into a recession. Reading the tea leaves isn't easy this year, but that's not stopping Wall Street from trying. Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks, recently released a midyear update to its outlook for Fed interest-rate cuts and the US economy. The forecast won't win many fans hoping for lower mortgage rates or looking for new jobs. Chief US Economist Michael Gapen correctly targeted slower growth and stickier inflation entering 2025. Now, he says that the effective tariff rate of 13% will remain, pressuring the economy while avoiding a recession. Unfortunately, Gapen hasn't seen any real help from the Fed this year. He says the Fed will delay additional interest rate cuts "into 2026." More Experts Treasury Secretary delivers optimistic message on trade war progressShark Tank's O'Leary sends strong message on economyBuffett's Berkshire has crucial advice for first-time homebuyers As for GDP, Morgan Stanley's growth target is tepid. According to a note sent to clients, Gapen "expects real GDP growth of 1% in 2025 and 2026 (Q4/Q4), with inflation peaking in 3Q25, finishing this year between 3% and 3.5%, and the unemployment rate rising gradually to 4.8% by the end of 2026." Higher unemployment and inflation above current levels aren't necessarily good news for investors hoping for revenue and profit growth tailwinds. Gapen does say, however, that the Fed will be forced to respond to the weaker economy next year, cutting "more deeply than markets currently project to a target range for the Federal Funds Rate of 2.5%-2.75% by end-2026." Currently, the Federal Funds Rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. Overall, his outlook means the US debt situation is worsening. He projects the deficit will climb to 7.1% of GDP from 6.3% in 2025, an "increase of $310 billion year on year." Related: Secretary Bessent sends message on Walmart price increases due to tariffs The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 Ways To Protect Your Money Amid Tariffs and High Costs, According to Preston Seo
If you're worried about how the Trump administration's tariff policy might affect your finances, you're not alone. Tariffs are now the top concern among consumers, according to The Conference Board's monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, published on April 29. Be Aware: Check Out: You can't control trade policy or its effects on the economy, but you can prepare your finances for whatever might come. In a recent episode of the 'Legacy Investing Show' on YouTube, host Preston Seo shared five tips for protecting your money against price increases due to tariffs. 'Planning early does not just help you save; it gives you more options,' Seo said. Your cash will lose purchasing power if tariffs cause inflation. So rather than sock cash away in a bank account, Seo recommended banking just 40% of it for basic expenses and 10% for extras. The other 50% should go toward investments that keep your money working for you. Investing during uncertain economic times can be scary, but it can pay off in a big way. A Fidelity analysis of Bloomberg Finance and National Bureau of Economic Research data showed that historically, investors who began buying stocks during recessions saw larger gains than those who started investing during non-recessionary periods. After one year, the recession investors saw 19% returns compared with 11.7% for non-recession investors, based on the S&P 500. The gap narrowed as time passed, but recession investors retained a 2-percentage-point advantage, on average, even 10 years later. Explore More: Think about large expenses you might incur over the next few months and plan to make them sooner rather than later. 'Once tariffs ripple through the supply chain, prices begin to rise. Businesses rarely reduce prices once they've increased them,' Seo said. He used a $1,500 air conditioner as an example of a purchase you might push up. If the unit is made with imported aluminum or copper components, the price could increase 10% to 20% by July, Seo said, adding $150 to $300 to your cost. Seo called bitcoin a 'hedge against uncertainty.' 'When the economy becomes unstable, whether due to interest rate changes, inflation or global tensions like tariffs, investors look for alternative stores of value. And that's why gold and bitcoin both see increased demand,' he said. Or they did, until recently. Gold is up nearly 30% after steady gains since the beginning of the year, while bitcoin is up just over 3% — and only after a recent rally following a decline between January and early April. That said, Seo said he makes small but consistent bitcoin purchases and holds on to it regardless of any short-term price swings. That patience is key. While highly volatile in the short term, bitcoin has seen strong long-term gains. Seo noted that when external forces like tariffs strain profit margins of U.S. companies, domestic stock holdings can suffer. Diversifying into international equities mitigates that risk. Seo said he owns three international exchange-traded funds, covering different aspects of the global markets: Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX), for broad international exposure Fidelity International Index Fund (FSPSX), for exposure to developed markets iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), for exposure to emerging markets. Every economic challenge produces winners when it comes to the stock market. Tariffs are no different. Seo recommended taking a lesson from institutional investors by watching sectors and industries that stand to benefit. Here are a few examples: Manufacturing: Look for companies that can shift quickly from foreign imports to U.S. production. Defense: International tensions could increase government spending on defense, plus these stocks are less vulnerable to market volatility. Domestic energy: If tariffs disrupt supply chains, the U.S. will become more reliant on its own fuels and energy infrastructure. Seo recommended that you revisit your budget periodically and invest intentionally to align yourself with government policies. 'At the end of the day, this isn't about just saving money. It's about protecting your future, your family and also the freedom that you've been working so hard to build,' he said. More From GOBankingRates 5 Types of Vehicles Retirees Should Stay Away From Buying How Far $750K Plus Social Security Goes in Retirement in Every US Region 4 Things You Should Do if You Want To Retire Early 12 SUVs With the Most Reliable Engines Sources The Conference Board, 'US Consumer Confidence Plunged Again in April.' Legacy Investing Show, 'How to Protect Your Money When Prices Go Up (New Tariff Breakdown).' Fidelity, '3 things you should know about recessions.' This article originally appeared on 5 Ways To Protect Your Money Amid Tariffs and High Costs, According to Preston Seo Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
