Latest news with #CorePCEPriceIndex
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's Core PCE Climbs 0.1%, Income Surges 0.8%
The Fed's preferred Core PCE Price Index rose 0.1% in April, matching March's revised gain and consensus estimates, signaling that early-month tariffs had little impact on underlying inflation. Excluding food and energy, core PCE climbed 2.5% year-over-yearalso in line with forecasts and down from a 2.7% pace in Marchwhile the headline PCE measure, which includes all items, increased 0.1% month-over-month and 2.1% annually. The data echo April's CPI report in showing muted tariff effects, as consumers shifted spending patterns rather than letting price spikes feed through to core inflation. Personal income jumped 0.8%more than double the 0.3% consensuswhile personal consumption expenditures slowed to 0.2% growth, down from March's 0.7%. That divergence drove the personal saving rate up to 4.9%, its highest in seven months, underscoring that households are choosing to boost buffers rather than chase pre-tariff deals. Investors should care because stable core inflation and a rising savings cushion give the Fed cover to maintain its wait-and-see stance, keeping rate-cut expectations modest despite healthy consumer balance sheets. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
29-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Daybook Americas: Altcoins Slide, Gold Shines as Trump Tariffs Spur Flight to Safety
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market is extending yesterday's slide as investors anticipate the impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, set to come into effect on April 2, and key macroeconomic data due later Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 2.5% in the past 24 hours, which seems pretty staid when compared with an almost 6% in slide in ether (ETH), 5.5% in XRP and 7% in dogecoin (DOGE). The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) dropped 4.65%. Gold, in contrast, hit new highs. The growing exposure to gold has benefited tokens backed by the precious metal, which CoinDesk Data's latest stablecoin report shows climbed to a $1.4 billion market capitalization in March. It seems clear traders are moving to reduce risk exposure with one eye on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report set to be released later. That data could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and thus any appetite for risk going forward. Bitcoin traders are also anticipating a record-breaking $12.2 billion in BTC options expiring on Deribit today, with a max pain point at $85,000. Implied volatility, however, remains near annual lows as the expiry isn't likely to move the market, according to Wintermute OTC trader Jake O. 'These expirations are yet to consistently move markets, largely because BTC options open interest remains small relative to spot activity," Jake O. said in an emailed statement. "That $12B is dwarfed by $28B in spot volume traded over the past 24 hours.' While the derisking trend grows, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen consistent inflows since mid-March, adding in nearly $1 billion over the past two weeks. In contrast, spot ether ETF outflows have remained persistent, with around $115 million exiting these funds over the same period. Looking ahead, money managers are likely to keep on reducing risk exposure. The trend spurred Goldman Sachs to raise its gold price target for the year to $3,300 per troy ounce, with the potential to rise to $4,500 in an 'extreme tail scenario.' Stay alert! Crypto: April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective. Macro March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data. Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5% March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data. Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7% March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data. GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2% March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data. Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3% Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6% PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3% PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5% Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9% Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2% April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs plan takes effect alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain car parts. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38 Governance votes & calls Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL. CoW DAO is discussing updating the score definition for buy orders after a Base network incident revealed that the current version could lead to an excessive allocation of solver rewards. Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a '33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.' It's also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into 'on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.' Voting ends on April 3. March 28, 3 a.m: Ontology to hold a Weekly Community Update via X Spaces. Unlocks March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.47 million. April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.98 million. April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $15.30 million. April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $15.87 million. April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $128.09 million. April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.91 million. April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $23.54 million. Token Listings March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO). March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG. CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Day 3 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria) Day 2 of 2: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia) March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town) April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok) April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Bucharest, Romania) April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas) April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul) By Shaurya Malwa A small set of tokens are gaining higher traction on social media platforms such as X, Reddit and Telegram, Santiment data shows, making it beneficial for traders to put on a watchlist as market conditions improve. Solana (SOL) leads the pack due to its high liquidity and a growing interest in Solana-based projects, alongside Curve DAO token (CRV), which has seen a 30% price rebound and increased trading activity in the past three weeks. COTI is generating excitement following a recent airdrop, with users exploring its supply and swapping challenges, while newly-issued Walrus (WAL), a Sui ecosystem project, is riding a wave of interest fueled by trading pair mentions and exchange listings. Social chatter often precedes price movements because it is indicative of forthcoming demand or shifting sentiments. Global open interest across all instruments declined to $105 billion from $124 billion earlier today, coinciding with the broader drawdown in major digital assets, according to data from Laevitas. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $362 million, with long positions accounting for a dominant 83% of the wipeout. Among assets with more than $100 million in open interest, the steepest percentage declines were seen in Pepe (-14.0%), PNUT (-13.7%), Worldcoin (-12.6%), Avalanche (-11.9%), and BNB (-11.5%). Only three assets in this group saw an uptick in open interest over the last 24 hours: Toncoin (+15.5%), Berachain (+9.78%) and ACT (+2.15%). On the liquidation heatmap for the largest futures pair, recent price action has swept through major downside liquidation clusters. The next significant zones for potential liquidations are located at $86,000 and $88,000, suggesting these levels could attract volatility if approached. BTC is down 2.34% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $85,266.30 (24hrs: -2.28%) ETH is down 4.77% at $,1911.49 (24hrs: -5.51%) CoinDesk 20 is down 4.37% at 2,618.54 (24hrs: -4.55%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.99% BTC funding rate is at 0.0155% (5.6666% annualized) on Binance DXY is unchanged at 104.43 Gold is up 1.65% at $3,110.60/oz Silver is up 1.38% at $35.38/oz Nikkei 225 closed -1.8% at 37,120.33 Hang Seng closed -0.65% at 23,426.60 FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,691.20 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,373.72 DJIA closed on Thursday -0.37% at 42,299.70 S&P 500 closed -0.33% at 5,693.31 Nasdaq closed -0.53% at 17,804.03 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,161.10 S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.27% at 2,466.98 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.34% E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% at 5,727.75 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 19,917.75 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.13% at 42,546.00 BTC Dominance: 62.04 (0.44%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02241 (-2.44%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $47.45 Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $449,016 CME Futures Open Interest: 140,460 BTC BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86% Ether continues to lag behind the broader market, with prices consolidating around levels last seen in November 2023. With prices below all the key exponential moving averages (EMAs), ETH has struggled to reclaim the former support near $2,110 — a level aligned with the wick lows from the Aug. 5 and Feb. 3 sell-offs. This level is set to act as resistance unless the price can find acceptance above in the coming days. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $324.59 (-1.43%), down 2.87% at $315.29 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $188.58 (-2.77%), down 1.35% at $186.04 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.44 (-3.54%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.64 (-1.09%), down 1.76% at $13.40 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (-1.65%), down 1.8% at $7.63 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.88 (+3.28%), down 1.52% at $7.76 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.84 (-3.45%), down 1.47% at $7.73 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.04 (-1.96%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.92 (-6.7%), up 0.22% at $37 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $52.28 (+4.56%), down 4.17% at $50.10 Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow: $89 million Cumulative net flows: $36.42 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1,122 million. Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: -$4.2 million Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.423 million. Source: Farside Investors Bitcoin dominance continues to increase and is now approaching a key resistance level at 62.3%. Currently 62.05% and holding above all major exponential moving averages (EMAs), the strength in BTC dominance suggests continued pressure on altcoins in the near term, with further downside risk likely if this trend persists. Dogecoin, XRP Sink 7% as Trump Tariffs Threats Dent Markets; Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms (CoinDesk): DOGE, ETH and XRP sank more than 5% in early Asian hours as traders took profits on a relief rally that started earlier in the week. GameStop Prices Bitcoin Notes at $29.85 (CoinDesk): GameStop priced $1.3 billion in convertible zero-coupon notes due 2030, with an initial conversion price of about $29.85 per share, a 35% premium over the closing stock price. UK Regulator Intends to Start Authorizing Crypto Firms in 2026 (CoinDesk): The U.K. plans to replace its anti-money laundering-based crypto oversight with a full authorization regime by 2026, potentially requiring all firms offering regulated services to reapply under stricter rules. China's Xi Jinping Meets Foreign CEOs to Urge Trade Stability (Financial Times): The Chinese leader told executives that efforts to disrupt trade ties and fragment supply chains should be resisted, urging multinationals to reject protectionism and support economic openness. Trump's Erratic Tariff Policy Shakes Confidence in Europe's Market Bull Run (Reuters): Amid growing trade war concerns, top European asset managers such as Amundi are reducing exposure to the euro and regional stocks after a strong first-quarter rally. Chinese Exporters Hunt for Alternatives to 'Irreplaceable' U.S. Buyers (The Wall Street Journal): Chinese manufacturers are exploring new ways to stay profitable, including targeting markets like Russia, relocating production to Cambodia and selling directly to consumers. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
23-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Options Market Focused on Jobs and Inflation Over Tariff Reveal
(Bloomberg) -- While investors are eyeing warily Donald Trump's tariff 'Liberation Day' on April 2, options markets show it's far from the only event on the calendar. They Built a Secret Apartment in a Mall. Now the Mall Is Dying. Chicago Transit Faces 'Doomsday Scenario,' Regional Agency Says LA Faces $1 Billion Budget Hole, Warns of Thousands of Layoffs New York Subway Ditches MetroCard After 32 Years for Tap-And-Go Despite Cost-Cutting Moves, Trump Plans to Remake DC in His Style Implied volatility for S&P 500 Index options is elevated for a couple of particular days in the next two weeks, signaling greater demand for protection against big market swings then. That kink in the volatility curve is bigger for March 31 — just after the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, is released — and for April 4, when monthly US unemployment data come out. This underscores that investors are paying at least as much attention to economic data that may signal how the labor market and prices are responding to the effects of Trump's deep cuts across government payrolls and bellicose trade policies as they are to his pronouncements themselves. With recent on- and off-again tariff statements whipsawing markets, it seems more and more that traders are waiting to see what's real. 'Through the lens of SPX options, markets appear to be downplaying the impact on US equities of the US's implementation of agricultural and reciprocal tariffs,' said Anshul Gupta and Stefano Pascale, equity-derivatives strategists at Barclays Bank Plc. While there are signs that retail investors have reduced their participation, Barclays's Equity Euphoria Indicator suggests they could further disengage from the stock market, Gupta and Pascale said. One feature of the 10% decline in the S&P 500 was that while it was swift, there was a relative calm in the market. The Cboe Volatility Index hasn't been as reactive as in previous selloffs in early August and December. And the VVIX, which measures expected swings in the VIX, sank last week to the lowest since early December, signaling tepid demand for hedges against wider market upsets. The lack of volatility spikes is partly due to the fact that some investors have been lightening their positions and rotating into other parts of the world, lessening the need to buy insurance against the risk of further declines. Max Grinacoff, head of US equity-derivatives research at UBS Securities, said he expects the VIX to remain in its current range in the short term. Investors who are long US equities are not 'flooding into puts, as they did on August 5th,' he said. The move implied by options for April 2 is similar to that of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee, according to Grinacoff, who added that volatility around event days has largely been realized in recent weeks. Speakers last week at Bloomberg Intelligence's Volatility Forum in London pointed to that lack of reactivity in the VIX during the selloff, which has been described widely as a grind lower. The relative calm in in the guage during the drawdown caused several participants to question the ongoing effectiveness of long volatility hedges. Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief global derivatives strategist, highlighted that S&P 500 puts far outperformed VIX calls from Feb. 21 through March 11. If future selloffs continue to be driven by the predictable chaos of Trump tariffs in the absence of shocks, long volatility hedges will keep disappointing. The VIX's sensitivity to moves in the S&P 500, as measured by the 10-day rolling beta, was more reminiscent of rallying markets in the first half of 2024, compared with what was seen in the August and December swoons. Investor demand for downside protection is not expected to change drastically in the coming weeks, according to UBS's Grinacoff. 'Skew is not going to blow out,' he said. 'Volatility is probably not going to move higher from here.' A New 'China Shock' Is Destroying Jobs Around the World How TD Became America's Most Convenient Bank for Money Launderers Tesla's Gamble on MAGA Customers Won't Work One Man's Crypto Windfall Is Funding a $1 Billion Space Station Dream The Real Reason Trump Is Pushing 'Buy American' ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
23-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Options Market Focused on Jobs and Inflation Over Tariff Reveal
By , Christian Dass, and Bernard Goyder Save While investors are eyeing warily Donald Trump's tariff 'Liberation Day' on April 2, options markets show it's far from the only event on the calendar. Implied volatility for S&P 500 Index options is elevated for a couple of particular days in the next two weeks, signaling greater demand for protection against big market swings then. That kink in the volatility curve is bigger for March 31 — just after the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, is released — and for April 4, when monthly US unemployment data come out.
