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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Indian Rupee extends decline to second day; ends slightly lower at 85.36/$
Indian Rupee pared early losses to close slightly weaker on Wednesday, extending its decline to a second day as a revival in the dollar weighed on sentiments. The domestic currency ended 2 paise weaker at 85.36 against the US dollar, after ending at 85.34 on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The local unit opened 29 paise weaker at 85.63 against the US dollar against the greenback. The currency has depreciated about 1.2 per cent in the month so far, after two straight months of gains. The US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low, driving global investors into dollar-denominated assets. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.01 per cent at 99.53. Further, the index is down over 8 per cent so far this year on US trade policy uncertainty and fiscal worries. However, long-term dollar weakness driven by rising fiscal deficit concerns, policy instability, rising uncertainty, and weak economic conditions is going to support the emerging markets, including the rupee, analysts said. Meanwhile, participants will also eye India's upcoming industrial and manufacturing production data. Strong surprise data could offer further support to the rupee, but a miss could cause downside risks, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. According to reports, the currency also faced month-end dollar demand from importers, dragging the rupee lower. Weak equity markets, muted foreign inflows, and a rebound in crude oil prices were adding pressure to the currency, Pabari said. Meanwhile, Indian equity indices ended Wednesday's choppy session in negative territory. The 30-share Sensex closed down by 239.31 points or 0.29 per cent at 81,312.32. The rupee's movement this week will be primarily influenced by foreign fund flows into secondary markets, with several key economic indicators on the horizon, including the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, first-quarter GDP data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. "In the short term, the rupee is likely to trade within a range of 84.80 to 85.75." In commodities, crude oil prices advanced ahead of the OPEC+ committee meeting. Brent crude price was up 0.66 per cent to $64.51 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 0.74 per cent higher at 61.34, as of 3:45 PM IST.
Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Dollar index gathers further momentum above 99.50 mark
The dollar index added further gains on Wednesday for the second straight session on the back of upbeat economic data. The Conference Board's US consumer confidence Index rebounded sharply after a prolonged fall since December 2024. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index spiked to 98.0 in May after plunging to a downwardly revised 85.7 in April. This marks the biggest monthly rise in four years amid an improving outlook for the economy and the labor market on the back of the US-China trade truce. Dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of currencies accrued optimism from this and is quoting at 99.65, up 0.22% on the day. Investors will eye the Federal Reserves (Fed) last meeting minutes, the second estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2025, and the Feds Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index during the week ahead.
Business Insider
24-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
8 coming days when investors will find out if their worst fears are coming to life
Uncertainty has been the flavor of the month in April on Wall Street. Tariffs of 10% are still in place on most countries, leaving investors wondering about inflation and recession prospects as consumer and business sentiment decline rapidly. President Donald Trump also continues to flip-flop on his most extreme tariff policies almost daily. When will all the guessing go away? Well, it never really does. But over the next few months, investors should start to gain a higher degree of clarity on their biggest fears. Though the list is not exhaustive, here are a few major coming dates to watch out for, when the macro picture should start to become clear. Friday, May 2 This is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the non-farm payrolls numbers for April. Job gains were higher than expected in March, and another strong print for May could reassure investors that recession fears are overblown. Conversely, a weak print could indicate that the economy is starting to slide into a downturn. Wednesday, May 7 This is when the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee will announce any changes to monetary policy, and Powell will share his outlook on the economy. Investors will be interested to hear Powell's thoughts on how tariffs are starting to leak into inflation, if at all. Right now, the Fed appears stuck between rate hikes and rate cuts as it waits to see whether inflation flares up or the economy weakens — or both. Markets are pricing in a 91% chance that the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged in May, but still see 100 basis points of cuts coming this year. Tuesday, May 13 The data release everyone is waiting for: the consumer price index (CPI). Trump implemented his tariffs in early April, so this will be investors' first chance to see whether or not prices are jumping for consumers thanks to the 10% baseline import taxes. Friday, May 30 Data for April's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Fed's favorite inflation gauge — will come out. It'll be another window into how tariffs are impacting consumer price gains. Unlike CPI, Core PCE measures price growth outside food and energy, which can be volatile. Excluding these categories makes it easier to measure how much inflation is taking hold in more stable parts of the economy. Friday, June 6 May payrolls — another chance for investors to take stock of the labor market's health. Wednesday, June 11 May CPI data will be released, giving investors another opportunity to see to what degree tariffs are being passed on to consumers early on. Friday, June 27 Again a window into inflation with May's Core PCE data being released. Wednesday, July 9 This is the 90-day deadline Trump set on April 9 for his pause on steep "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries. Trump's first announcement of these tariffs sent the S&P 500 falling nearly 10% over the span of a couple days, and caused Treasury yields to rise. This led Trump to postpone the plans. Trump has shown a willingness to walk back extreme stances in his trade war so far — evident most recently in his indication on Wednesday that his trade war with China will deescalate — and as July 9 approaches, investors should gain more insight into Trump's appetite for continuing his aggressive approach on trade.
