Latest news with #CouncilofEconomicAdvisors
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
CEA's Stephen Miran: Inflation is very well behaved
Stephen Miran, Council of Economic Advisors, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest jobs report and inflation.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
South Dakota governor's economic advisers bemoan Trump's tariff policy
A January 2025 view of the South Dakota State Capitol in Pierre. (Makenzie Huber/South Dakota Searchlight) Members of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors raised alarms during a virtual roundtable Tuesday about volatile Trump administration tariff policies, saying they're driving up costs, stalling housing developments, and threatening key sectors of South Dakota's economy. 'It's a really regressive tax,' council member John Hemmingstad, of Avalon Capital Group, said of tariffs. Hemmingstad said his team has paused multi-family housing investments due to the price uncertainty of building materials. He added that South Dakota, which relies heavily on sales taxes, could be especially vulnerable if higher tariffs cause inflation that dampens consumer spending. Retailers are also feeling the strain. Kevin Nyberg, owner of Ace Hardware stores in Sioux Falls and Watertown, said suppliers are warning of price increases on up to 50% of inventory. He compared it to the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. 'This is the psyche of a retailer right now,' Nyberg said. 'You scramble before the price increases go into effect.' U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, made a separate visit later Tuesday to Maguire, a water tower manufacturer and maintainer in Sioux Falls. 'When we hear from businesses locally, and we have, we're obviously doing what we can to intervene with the administration,' Thune said. 'On a broader level, the tariffs are, I think, designed to sort of rebalance trade, create more reciprocity with other countries who, in many cases, have been taking advantage of us.' Last year, before Trump took office, Thune said an across-the-board tariff strategy would be 'a recipe for increased inflation.' At the Council of Economic Advisors meeting, South Dakota State University economics professor Evert Van der Sluis called the Trump administration's approach a 'deliberate policy to dismantle some of the pillars of American prosperity,' citing cuts to education, immigration and research as compounding the harm. He said economic modeling does not support the idea that tariffs will offset federal revenue losses or reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing. Van der Sluis and others also expressed concern for South Dakota's export-dependent agricultural sector, which remains vulnerable to international tariff retaliation. 'Agriculture is very much dependent on exports,' he said. During Trump's prior four years in office, the U.S. Department of Agriculture paid out billions of dollars to support farmers suffering from retaliatory tariffs. Thune said discussions are underway among Congress, the USDA and the White House about how to shield farmers from tariff fallout. 'I think you want to try and ensure that nobody gets harmed,' Thune said. 'And agriculture oftentimes is the place where a lot of countries retaliate first.' Hemmingstad said bailing out ag producers alone would be a tough sell politically. 'This time it's not just ag. Every industry is going to be impacted,' he said. 'Is ag really going to get one and no one else does?' While farmers received significant aid during the last tariff standoff, Van der Sluis noted, 'those bailouts, they come from federal revenue,' and so 'it adds to the fiscal irresponsibility.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the GOP tax bill isn't 'good for America'
Wall Street may see upside in the GOP tax bill, but not all Americans will benefit. Former Council of Economic Advisors member Heather Boushey joins Morning Brief to explain why the cuts could leave low and middle-income families worse off. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
USA Today
20-05-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Why Trump's tariffs will lead to recession, even after he caved to China
Why Trump's tariffs will lead to recession, even after he caved to China | Opinion Trump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn. The numbers make that clear. So, if you are among the 37% of Americans who approve of Trump's economic policies, this column is for you. Show Caption Hide Caption President Trump said new import tariff rates are coming soon During his trip to the Gulf, President Trump said his administration would be sending letters to countries informing them of new tariff rates. Judging from email and social media, my last column, which revised my 2025 economic forecast in light of President Donald Trump's tariffs, seems to have angered a lot of folks. I'm sorry, but Trump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers. The numbers make that clear. So, if you are among the 37% of Americans who approve of Trump's economic policies, this column is for you. Tariffs added $20 billion in taxes to Indiana factories As of Jan. 1, Hoosier factory owners could have expected to pay $2.8 billion in total taxes this year. Then Trump introduced new tariffs April 2, which he labeled Liberation Day. Those tariffs exploded taxes on factory owners to $22.4 billion. To put that in context, Indiana's total state general fund for this fiscal year is in the $20.1 billion range. The good news for businesses – and it is hardly good news – is that most of those taxes will be passed onto consumers. The Yale Budget Lab estimated the 2025 effect would be equivalent to roughly $4,600 of income for the average family. That's like a wage cut of 5.8%. That is a recession, a deep recession. Trump's first tariff retreat didn't fix it On April 9, which I label Bond Market Freakout Day, Trump changed his tariff policy on 189 out of 193 countries. He dropped all but Chinese tariffs to 10%, raising China's to 145%. That changed the tax rate on Hoosier businesses from 18.7% of GDP to 18.8% of GDP – a virtual wash that had no effect on consumers. That is still a deep recession. By the first week of May, seaborne transport to the U.S. from China virtually stopped. We buy and sell more than 16 million TEUs (20-foot shipping containers) with China. Nearly all of them travel by truck at some point. The end of that container traffic alone accounts for 325,000 truck driver jobs in the U.S. Trump singlehandedly fixed the alleged truck driver shortage in just a few weeks – by slashing demand. By early May, every forward-looking indicator of the real economy was flashing bright red. Trump had taken a solid economy, the strongest in the developed world and which had grown consistently since COVID-19, into a downturn. Opinion: Trump has no plan to fix the economy – and Americans know it Almost 2,000 economists signed an open letter criticizing these tariffs. This list included people from across the political spectrum, from Libertarian Nobel Laureates to former heads of the Council of Economic Advisors for both Democratic and GOP presidents, to university professors hailing from the Ivy League, Hillsdale College and Liberty University. The only economist I've ever read or heard of who favors tariffs is Peter Navarro, the Democratic congressional candidate-turned-Trumpist, who serves as Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. Navarro is perhaps best known for inventing a pro-tariff businessman – Ron Vera – to provide fabricated quotes for books. Apparently, Trump got the message that tariffs are pushing the economy into recession and will cut family incomes, leave millions unemployed and cripple his already low popularity. That gave us Capitulation Day. Opinion: Trump bullies Walmart, US credit drops. Where my free-market Republicans at? Trump caved to China. It could still lead to recession. Trump on May 12 announced tariffs on China would be cut to 30% for 90 days. That is a major reduction – except that there's a nearly 200-page list of items with an additional 25% remaining on them. So, for most manufactured inputs, the effective Chinese tariff rates are at 55%. Trump's caving on these tariff rates brings the taxes on Hoosier businesses down to 11.9% of GDP – still a fourfold increase from January totaling $14 billion. Let me go over that again. Trump just raised taxes on Indiana manufacturing firms by 400%, from $2.8 billion to $14 billion. That leads to recession. Trump blew it. Now businesses face tough choices. In the coming months, consumers will feel heavy losses due to this tax increase. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the new tariff formula costs families an average of $2,500 for items they were going to buy this year. Businesses will need to plan for erratic tariff changes. For example, is it wise to purchase inventory for Halloween – which if ordered today will arrive in late August – when the tariff might be anywhere from 0% to 145%? Everything from cars and RVs to Halloween costumes to auto and home insurance will be more expensive. None of this will be accompanied by a manufacturing renaissance, but rather job losses across most sectors. All Trump had to do in 2025 to claim a record year of factory production was to have left well enough alone. He blew it, and two-thirds of Americans know that. Pointing out the imbecility of his tariff policies is not "Trump Derangement Syndrome." That diagnosis is best left for those who think this guy is going to deliver prosperity. Michael J. Hicks is the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and the George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State University. This column originally appeared in the Indianapolis Star.
CNBC
19-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CEA Chair Stephen Miran on House budget bill
Stephen Miran, Council of Economic Advisors chairman, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Trump's tax bill, the state and local tax deductions, and much more.
