Latest news with #CreditUnionConsumerSentimentSurvey
Irish Independent
23-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Revealed: the number of people who wouldn't cope if they got a sudden bill for €1,000
The findings in a recent survey have prompted a leading economist to support calls for another cost-of-living package in this year's budget. Researchers asked people if they could cope financially if they were faced with an emergency costing €1,000. One in seven (14pc) consumers say they would be unable to cope with such a financial emergency, a special question asked as part of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey for May shows. Independent economist Austin Hughes, who analyses the survey, said the results suggest a continuing strain on household finances from the cost-of-living crisis. He said household spending power has declined and the findings support calls for another cost-of-living package in this year's budget. 'From a policy perspective, these survey findings run counter to the widely heard argument that lower inflation and rising aggregate incomes mean further fiscal supports are no longer required,' he said. The Government has ruled out an across-the-board package to support households in October's budget, but hinted at measures targeted at the most vulnerable. Central Statistics Office figures show grocery prices are up an estimated 36pc in the last four years. 'While inflation has eased over the past year, it has started to pick up again in recent months and, far more importantly, consumer prices have not retraced any of the sharp increases of recent years,' Mr Hughes said. 'In these circumstances, it is not entirely surprising that significant numbers of Irish consumers say they would struggle to cope with a financial emergency at present.' The Credit Union survey, in partnership with Core Research, shows financial circumstances and conditions continue to vary markedly across Irish households. Responses show a third of consumers would be able to call on savings to deal with an unexpected financial emergency. One in five would resort to using their income to fund the outlay. ADVERTISEMENT Mr Hughes said survey findings indicate just over half of Irish consumers could be regarded as financially 'comfortable' at present. About one-in-four consumers might be seen as 'clinging on'' financially. He said around one in five could be described as 'coping' in the current circumstances. However, this share who are coping has declined as consumer circumstances diverge. 'The trend in recent years is for a small increase in the numbers clinging on. There is a slight increase in the comfortable, and a drop in the number of those who are coping,' Mr Hughes said. He said this raised a question about whether middle-income people have been squeezed too much. The economist said the evidence at home and abroad is that economic and social fracture is damaging and destabilising.
Irish Independent
06-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Donald Trump's tariff threats send Irish consumer sentiment crashing to two-year low
The collapse in confidence is largely caused by fears about the impact of US president Donald Trump's trade policies rather than current financial strains, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index for April indicates. Large numbers of people are struggling financially as items such as groceries continue to soar in price. The survey conducted to produce the index shows consumers are not seeing any dramatic change in their current circumstances. But there is a strong sense that more difficult times lie ahead, the findings suggest. Economist Austin Hughes, who oversees the compiling of the index, said uncertainty reigns. 'Exactly how far or how fast Irish economic conditions might weaken in the future remains unclear and subject to rapid and random changes on policy pronouncements from the White House and elsewhere,' he said, adding that this makes it difficult for Irish consumers to assess how much to adjust their behaviour. 'A state of flux, as well as fear, is likely to dominate consumer sentiment and spending in coming months.' The confidence of consumers is also being impacted by ongoing price rises, with food inflation a particular concern. The Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey, in partnership with Core Research, has an index reading of 58.7 for April. This is far lower than the 67.5 figure for March. It is the second successive month of a substantial decline in Irish consumer confidence. ADVERTISEMENT 'The April sentiment number reading is the lowest in just over two years, since the March 2023 figure of 53.8,' Mr Hughes said. 'The April sentiment reading of 58.7 is now also materially weaker than the 29-year survey average of 84.1, and also some distance below the 66.6 average of the past five years.' Despite the weakening sentiment for consumers, a special question asked as part of the sentiment survey found most Irish consumers plan to spend on home improvements in the next two years. About 43pc plan spending money on what is described as 'significant refurbishments', and another 26pc will spend money refreshing their homes. Those aged under the age of 45 are far more likely to plan significant home-improvement spending in the coming years than those aged over 55.
Irish Examiner
05-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Irish consumer sentiment drops to two-year low on trade war uncertainty
Irish consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in two years on the back of a global trade war set off by US president Donald Trump. The findings of the April Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey now show that the gap between current conditions and expectations for the future is the largest since the threat of a 'no-deal' Brexit in late 2020. The drop in consumer confidence here is comparable to but slightly larger than marked sentiment declines elsewhere. US consumer sentiment has dropped to its second-lowest monthly reading since 1953. The monthly survey found that most households have confidence in their personal finances for the year ahead their outlook for the wider economy is much gloomier. Exactly how far or how fast Irish economic conditions might weaken in the future remains unclear and subject to rapid and random changes on policy pronouncements from the White House and elsewhere. It makes it difficult for Irish consumers to assess how much to adjust their behaviour. A state of flux as well as fear is likely to dominate consumer sentiment and spending in the coming months. The survey, in partnership with Core Research, shows an index reading of 58.7 in April, significantly lower than the 67.5 figure for March, and marking a second successive month of substantial decline in Irish consumer confidence. The April reading is materially weaker than the 29-year survey average of 84.1 and also some distance below the 66.6 average of the past five years. Economist Austin Hughes said the survey suggests that any pullback in Irish household spending in the months ahead seems likely to be driven by fears about the future rather than current financial problems. "The nature of the very real risks facing the Irish economy from a global trade war at present are very different in terms of the speed and type of fallout to those seen in the 2008 crash," he said. "The survey was taken between April 5th and 15th, during which time there were an almost bewildering number of pronouncements, qualifications, postponements and rumours on trade measures and their possible economic repercussions." However, Mr Hughes said the element of the survey that saw the smallest drop in April was in relation to spending plans. "This element could have been boosted by a falling trend in ECB interest rates and may also have gotten some temporary support from Easter-related outlays." Home improvements The survey asked consumers about specific plans for spending on home improvements. Just under half of Irish consumers (47%) say they have undertaken significant home improvements in the past two years, up markedly from just over one in three consumers (37%) who gave this answer in the 2024 survey. "Our judgement is that a comparatively high incidence of home improvement spend among the 55 to 64 age group may owe something to 'empty nesters' and/or 're-nesters' being financially able and wishing to 'rightspec' their properties for changed household circumstances involving either fewer or more occupants," Mr Hughes said. Read More Irish consumers make permanent switch to own-brand labels
Irish Independent
25-04-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Most people expect house values to keep rising and goods prices to increase over next five years
A majority expect the economies in both the Republic and Northern Ireland to be weaker over the next five years, a new report looking at consumer expectations up to 2030 shows. Consumers in the Republic expect a weaker economy, less favourable job prospects and higher inflation in 2030, according to a special edition of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey. The outlook for jobs is the main concern for consumers in the North and in the Republic. The survey looked at consumer thinking over the next five years on economic activity, job prospects, inflation, house prices and household incomes in the Republic and the North. Its results indicate a slowdown rather than a slump ahead, said economist Austin Hughes, who analysed the research. Thirty-seven per cent of those surveyed in the Republic, and 39pc in the North, believe that the jobs market will be weaker over the next five years. Consumers on both sides of the Border are worried about US tariffs. But the survey suggests tariffs are not the only worry for consumers. Cost-of-living concerns and infrastructure shortfalls are other issues for people, the research, carried out by Core, reveals. Seven out of 10 consumers, in both the Republic and the North, think house prices will be higher in 2030. Just 11pc expect a fall in prices. Thirty-four per cent of respondents say they will earn more, but 29pc expect a decline. Consumers in the North think economic conditions will weaken over the next five years, but not as much as previously thought. ADVERTISEMENT Job prospects in the North are expected to be notably weaker in 2030. Overall, consumers in the Republic are more positive on the five-year outlook for the economy and jobs than consumers in the North. However, people in the Republic are even more strongly of the view that inflation and house prices will be higher in 2030. Mr Hughes said the results show there are more similarities than differences between consumer thinking in the Republic and the North. People on both sides of the Border have common concerns on the 'macro' economic outlook . 'With the threat of a trade war highlighting common global concerns, and improving domestic activity and incomes of late giving some shared sense of more positive developments, the sentiment survey suggests there are good grounds for more similarities than differences in the views of consumers in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland on their economic and financial circumstances,' Mr Hughes said. He said the fact that views are similar on both sides of the Border may reflect much improved Northern Irish economic performance. Mr Hughes said the survey hints that, from a consumer perspective, the economies of the Republic and Northern Ireland have been on similar rather than divergent paths in recent years. 'Consumers in both the Republic and Northern Ireland also appear to be seeing some more encouraging signs in their economic circumstances with household incomes expected to be higher in 2030,' he said. There is a broad belief that house prices will be higher in both the Republic and Northern Ireland in 2030, he said.
Belfast Telegraph
24-04-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
Hopes for increases in house prices buoy consumers on both sides of Irish border: report
But there are also concerns about the impact which tariffs and cost of living pressures might have on finances between now and 2030, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey found. In both Northern Ireland and the Republic, just under 40% of people expect the economy to be weaker in five years time, while just under 30% expect it to be stronger. Overall, consumers in the south had grown more downbeat about the medium term, while NI consumers were slightly less pessimistic. However, Northern Ireland consumers tended to be more pessimistic about the outlook for the jobs market. But in NI, the numbers who were positive about improvements in their household incomes by 2030 did outweigh those who were expecting incomes to drop. And expectations of improved household incomes seemed to be prompted by 'very pronounced' views that house prices would be higher in 2030 than they are now. The survey was commissioned by the Irish League of Credit Unions (ILCU) in partnership with Core Research. Economist Austin Hughes, who wrote the report based on the survey, said: 'With the threat of a trade war highlighting common global concerns and improving domestic activity and incomes of late giving some shared sense of more positive developments, the sentiment survey suggests there are good grounds for more similarities than differences in the views of consumers in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland on their economic and financial circumstances.' David Malone, chief executive of the ILCU, added: While consumers in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are understandably concerned about a troubling global economic outlook, the expectation of a modest improvement of incomes and higher house prices suggests many consumers see a future of opportunity as well as challenge.' The research has been released as the All-Island Credit Union Sector Conference takes place on Friday at the ICC in Belfast. The conference will host over 500 credit union leaders.
