Latest news with #CrimeanWar
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Opinion - Time is not on Russia's side in Ukraine
Who is winning, Ukraine or Russia? And whose prospects are better in the long run? In other words, whose side is time on? The Quincy Institute's Anatol Lieven states matter-of-factly that, 'as everyone now seems to agree, time is on Russia's side.' But is it? At one time, everyone also agreed that the Ukraine War would be over in a few weeks — an alert to the perils of groupthink. And now, as then, the reality is rather more complicated. As with everything, there are two opposing schools of thought: the optimists who think Ukraine will prevail and the pessimists who bet on Russia. The bottom-line pessimist case is based on numbers. Russia's population, economy and military-industrial complex are much bigger than Ukraine's. The numbers will therefore decide ultimate outcomes, even though Russian battlefield losses are exceptionally high and its economy has been battered by sanctions and Vladimir Putin's anti-consumerist economic policies. Expert analysts Collin Meisel and Mathew Burrows explicitly adopt this approach in a piece titled, 'Russia Can Afford to Take a Beating in Ukraine.' 'Whether Russia can maintain its ability to reconstitute and even grow its forces as its war in Ukraine progresses remains uncertain,' they write. 'More certain is its advantage over Ukraine in terms of total population, with nearly four times as many people and roughly 18.9 million males aged 20–39 relative to Ukraine's fewer than five million males of that age. Russia can lose three times as many troops as Ukraine and still suffer less in relative terms.' It is hard to argue with numbers. It is easy to argue with what they do or do not imply. After all, numbers alone are a poor predictor of victory. The U.S. should have prevailed in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, but it didn't. France should have won in Algeria and Vietnam, but it didn't. Imperial Russia should have won the Crimean War and the Russo-Japanese War, but it didn't. And the ancient Greeks and, later, Alexander of Macedon should never have defeated the Persian Empire, but they did. Clearly, there's more to the story than numbers of men, money and materiel. Leadership, morale, tactics, strategy, quality of weapons and other unquantifiable factors play an important — perhaps even decisive — role. Germany under both Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler stupidly violated Otto von Bismarck's guiding foreign-policy principle of avoiding a two-front war. Both suffered defeat as a result. Seen in this light, a Russian victory is anything but a sure bet. And the fact that the war has dragged on for so long is perhaps evidence of the futility of relying exclusively on numbers. But can the numerically challenged Ukrainians possibly prevail? Many, especially front-line soldiers, think they can. Stefan Korshak, senior defense correspondent at the Kyiv Post, recently summarized the argument made by one such officer, Robert Brovdi. 'Russia is mobilizing about 30–32,000 soldiers a month, and [the Ukrainian Armed Forces] is killing about 20,000 soldiers a month,' he writes. 'This makes the [Ukrainians'] task easy to grasp in very clear terms: Kill or wound 10,000 to 12,000 more Russian soldiers a month. Do that, all Russian offensives collapse in short order. Keep it up, the Russian army global morale cracks. Keep it up some more, you can bring down the Russian government.' Can Ukraine pull this off? Brovdi, thinks so. He points to the Ukrainians' four drone brigades. 'The solution is mathematically simple,' he writes. 'More drone pilots, more drone brigades … Absent more drones and more operators, the alternative is to make the existing ones more efficient. By Brovdi's calculation, if the drone units in the field now increase kill rates by 15 percent across the board, by whatever means, then in four months a critical mass of Russian casualties would be reached.' Brovdi estimates that Ukraine could reach 35,000 monthly Russian casualties by August. Brovdi agrees that it's ultimately about numbers — Ukraine needs to kill more Russians than Russia can mobilize. But getting to that point isn't just about the number of soldiers or weapons Ukraine can produce. It is about the quality of the drones and the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to use them efficiently. So, who is right, the optimists or the pessimists? Assuming that Meisel, Burrows and Brovdi are correct in their analysis, we may conclude that, at a minimum, it's a tie — which, given the disparity of resources and Putin's hopeless hope of destroying Ukraine, actually translates to a minor Ukrainian victory. At a maximum, Brovdi's calculations nullify Meisel and Burrows' conclusions and portend a possible Russian collapse — or a major Ukrainian victory. Time may just be on Ukraine's side. Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as 'Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires' and 'Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
6 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Time is not on Russia's side in Ukraine
Who is winning, Ukraine or Russia? And whose prospects are better in the long run? In other words, whose side is time on? The Quincy Institute's Anatol Lieven states matter-of-factly that, 'as everyone now seems to agree, time is on Russia's side.' But is it? At one time, everyone also agreed that the Ukraine War would be over in a few weeks — an alert to the perils of groupthink. And now, as then, the reality is rather more complicated. As with everything, there are two opposing schools of thought: the optimists who think Ukraine will prevail and the pessimists who bet on Russia. The bottom-line pessimist case is based on numbers. Russia's population, economy and military-industrial complex are much bigger than Ukraine's. The numbers will therefore decide ultimate outcomes, even though Russian battlefield losses are exceptionally high and its economy has been battered by sanctions and Vladimir Putin's anti-consumerist economic policies. Expert analysts Collin Meisel and Mathew Burrows explicitly adopt this approach in a piece titled, 'Russia Can Afford to Take a Beating in Ukraine.' 'Whether Russia can maintain its ability to reconstitute and even grow its forces as its war in Ukraine progresses remains uncertain,' they write. 'More certain is its advantage over Ukraine in terms of total population, with nearly four times as many people and roughly 18.9 million males aged 20–39 relative to Ukraine's fewer than five million males of that age. Russia can lose three times as many troops as Ukraine and still suffer less in relative terms.' It is hard to argue with numbers. It is easy to argue with what they do or do not imply. After all, numbers alone are a poor predictor of victory. The U.S. should have prevailed in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, but it didn't. France should have won in Algeria and Vietnam, but it didn't. Imperial Russia should have won the Crimean War and the Russo-Japanese War, but it didn't. And the ancient Greeks and, later, Alexander of Macedon should never have defeated the Persian Empire, but they did. Clearly, there's more to the story than numbers of men, money and materiel. Leadership, morale, tactics, strategy, quality of weapons and other unquantifiable factors play an important — perhaps even decisive — role. Germany under both Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler stupidly violated Otto von Bismarck's guiding foreign-policy principle of avoiding a two-front war. Both suffered defeat as a result. Seen in this light, a Russian victory is anything but a sure bet. And the fact that the war has dragged on for so long is perhaps evidence of the futility of relying exclusively on numbers. But can the numerically challenged Ukrainians possibly prevail? Many, especially front-line soldiers, think they can. Stefan Korshak, senior defense correspondent at the Kyiv Post, recently summarized the argument made by one such officer, Robert Brovdi. 'Russia is mobilizing about 30–32,000 soldiers a month, and [the Ukrainian Armed Forces] is killing about 20,000 soldiers a month,' he writes. 'This makes the [Ukrainians'] task easy to grasp in very clear terms: Kill or wound 10,000 to 12,000 more Russian soldiers a month. Do that, all Russian offensives collapse in short order. Keep it up, the Russian army global morale cracks. Keep it up some more, you can bring down the Russian government.' Can Ukraine pull this off? Brovdi, thinks so. He points to the Ukrainians' four drone brigades. 'The solution is mathematically simple,' he writes. 'More drone pilots, more drone brigades … Absent more drones and more operators, the alternative is to make the existing ones more efficient. By Brovdi's calculation, if the drone units in the field now increase kill rates by 15 percent across the board, by whatever means, then in four months a critical mass of Russian casualties would be reached.' Brovdi estimates that Ukraine could reach 35,000 monthly Russian casualties by August. Brovdi agrees that it's ultimately about numbers — Ukraine needs to kill more Russians than Russia can mobilize. But getting to that point isn't just about the number of soldiers or weapons Ukraine can produce. It is about the quality of the drones and the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to use them efficiently. So, who is right, the optimists or the pessimists? Assuming that Meisel, Burrows and Brovdi are correct in their analysis, we may conclude that, at a minimum, it's a tie — which, given the disparity of resources and Putin's hopeless hope of destroying Ukraine, actually translates to a minor Ukrainian victory. At a maximum, Brovdi's calculations nullify Meisel and Burrows' conclusions and portend a possible Russian collapse — or a major Ukrainian victory. Time may just be on Ukraine's side. Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as 'Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires' and 'Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.'
CTV News
6 days ago
- General
- CTV News
Historic cannon will be removed from Brantford park
The Alexandra Park cannon is seen in this undated image. (Courtesy: City of Brantford/Facebook) A cannon captured during the Crimean War will soon be removed from a Brantford park. The cannon has been a staple at Alexandra Park for years. The Russian cannon was taken during the siege at Sevastopol, between Oct. 1854 and Sept. 1855, and donated to the City of Brantford by the British. Originally, it was placed in Victoria Park but moved to its home on Dalhousie Street before 1900. The city said the cannon has been deteriorating, partly due to years of snowmelt and salt spray. If left outdoors, the city believes it would only last another 10 to 15 years, even with remediation efforts. In March, city staff recommended the cannon be removed from the city's public art collection and donated to the Canadian Military Heritage Museum on Greenwich Street in Brantford. The cannon will leave Alexandra Park on Thursday and a conservator accredited by the Canadian Association of Professional Conservators will get to work preserving the piece of history so it can be properly displayed in a museum.
RTÉ News
6 days ago
- RTÉ News
Bread making, Druid knowledge and more in Ireland's Ancient East
Under the din of ringing church bells, in a graveyard dotted with purple herb robert flowers, Cynthia Simonet was telling us that yew trees never die. She had just walked us through half of Trim in Co Meath, painting a picture of medieval life in the town, peppered with her own memories of growing up exploring its streets. In one breath, she'd point out the ancient well where locals would draw their water and gossip; in another, she'd point out Church Street, which led to St. Patrick's Cathedral and was, ironically, the place to go for a smooch as teenagers in her day. Coming to stop at the cathedral, Simonet - a tour guide with Trim Tourism - explained why yew trees are often planted in graveyards. "The Druids always made their laws within a grove of yew trees", she said. "The Druids believed in reincarnation, and then the Christian church believed in resurrection. It's said that a yew tree can't die, its roots grow out. The roots will incorporate the corpse as it decomposes, it will feed on that, and it's a way of coming back." Regeneration would turn out to be a theme of this trip to Ireland's Ancient East, which I'd been invited on as part of Fáilte Ireland's Keep Discovering campaign. Over the course of the two days, my boyfriend and I explored Meath and Louth, where numerous producers, makers and destinations are celebrating a return to their roots. We had luck on our side with the weather, but even nicer was the relative peace and quiet before the summer season kicks off in earnest. We began our trip by meeting Simonet at the cannon outside Trim Castle, which she wasted no time in telling us the history of. Dating back to the Crimean War, the 2,200kg cannon was gifted to the town in thanks for its support during the war. From there, we visited the Sheep Gate, one of the five gates in the wall into medieval Trim that kept the Irish out and the French-speaking townspeople in. Simonet brought us on a brusque walking tour of the town, doling out facts about Boann, the goddess of the Boyne, alongside modern-day updates to the town like the new protective enclosures for the sand martins that fly across the river. Filled up with mythology and local gossip, we set off for our next destination in Carlingford, Co. Louth, where we met Garrett Mallon, a goldsmith with over 30 years of experience who has created a country-spanning network of makers and producers in his studio. Located up one of the town's winding streets, Mallon's shop is a treasure trove of artisanal designs. The Tyrone native opened the space in 2014 with 40 makers represented on the shelves. Ten years later and that number has soared to 105, with creators from all across the island. Every nook and cranny is filled with handmade pieces, from knitwear by Edmund McNulty based in Termonfeckin and Donal Sweeney in Kilcar, Donegal, to pottery by Alison Hanvey in Co Down. Each display features a label noting the name and location of the creator, hammering home the sense of the studio being a pan-Ireland celebration of craft. "It's all about the maker", Mallon said. "Me being a maker myself, it's all about your hands and what you make." Tucked into the heart of the shop is Mallon's own workshop: long benches filled with glittering pendants, rings and more, lined up with their order papers. The team used to host hen parties and workshops in this space, but these have been paused while they gear up for a renovation. Mallon's commissions, meanwhile, haven't slowed. He said his favourite part of the job is being trusted to create something timeless and sentimental, especially when there's a special meaning attached to a piece. He told us about a recent wedding band commission for a man whose father had passed away. Inspired by the power of jewellery to connect people, Mallon offered to create the band from the man's father's own wedding band, and even made his mother a pendant from the leftover gold. With a few additions to my Christmas wishlist made, we set off for our next stop: picking up bikes and hitting the Carlingford to Omeath greenway. Carlingford Greenway Bikes supplied us with not only sleek and comfortable peddle assist bikes, but excellent sandwiches from their onsite food truck, Wildwood - a crispy chicken sambo with cheese, pickles and a cup of ranch for dunking. A section of "The Great Eastern Greenway" currently being developed along the east of Ireland coastline, the Carlingford to Omeath greenway is built on the old Dundalk Newry and Greenore Railway, and is a handy 7km long. The trail is entered down by the marina and hugs the coastline beautifully for the rest of the way, offering breathtaking views of the Mourne Mountains and Carlingford Lough. Sunkissed, windswept and happily tired, we dropped off our bikes and made the short trek to our accommodation for the night. Located down a turn-off from the main road into Carlingford, down a hedge-hemmed drive and in view of the sea, Ghan House is a distinctly different kind of hotel. Built in 1727, this Georgian manor was converted into a guesthouse 31 years ago and is now run by Paul Carroll, who took over the business from his mother Joyce (who still handmakes many of the delicious treats you'll find served at breakfast). This isn't your usual reimagined manor house hotel, however. With just 11 bedrooms, a surprisingly understated breakfast room, lived-in but ornate furniture and a stately restaurant complete with a piano, spending the night there felt like stepping back in time to visit a wealthy friend. Our room had an enormous bed, a crystal chandelier, long windows, opulent wallpaper and a view of the mountains and a graveyard, which some might find morbid, but I found extremely cinematic. One of the many joys of being in Carlingford is how walkable it is, so our dinner at The Bay Tree restaurant was only a short walk away. We both opted for the natural Carlingford oysters, which were sweet and briny and came with a classic mignonette sauce, Tabasco and an excellent soy and ponzu sauce. For mains, we had the pan-fried salmon and steak, and for dessert, we went with the white chocolate and raspberry tiramisu and the lemon pot with summer berries. The next morning, we visited Skypark, an impressive series of aerial obstacle courses located outside of the town (€30 per person, for children aged 9+). We were swiftly trained on how to safely navigate the courses and got stuck into tackling the yellow course, the easiest of the three. With zip lines, balancing challenges and plenty of opportunities to tease your boyfriend, a thrilling day out for kids and big kids alike. An appetite firmly worked up, we headed back toward Navan for a bread-making workshop - with a difference. Founded by Chris Brownlow, Bread with Benefits is a new venture striving to teach people about the connection between food and wellbeing, using sourdough as a way in. Originally a potato farmer, Brownlow was bitten by the sourdough bug like many of us and became fascinated by the power of fermented foods. He and his wife, Sarah, a local GP, decided to create a space in their home for immersive, hands-on workshops, celebrating the "soil to slice" journey of sourdough bread. A full-day bread-making course starts at €154. Leavened bread, he explained, likely existed in ancient Ireland, and noted that there was even an ancient Irish word for sourdough: descaid, mentioned in A Social History of Ancient Ireland by P W Joyce, a book published in 1907 and proudly displayed in Brownlow's workshop. Rather than a faddish pastime, a hangover from pandemic times, Brownlow's classes show how ancient ways of baking are coming back into fashion thanks to our renewed appreciation for food and wellness. With Groove Armada playing in the background and some fruity kombucha to sip on, we got stuck into making our own loaves while Brownlow finished off some bread he'd made earlier. The result of our work, a crisp and golden loaf topped with seeds and an incredibly bouncy structure, was one of the best loaves of bread I've ever tasted, especially when slathered with the cultured butter Brownlow showed us how to make in less than five minutes. As with any memorable trip, it's the unexpected conversations, tidbits and stories that stay with you, and this part of the country is overflowing with places to find them. Whether that's stopping into the Moorland Cafe in Drogheda for pastries after a walking tour of the historic town, or taking part in an art class, such as the one by Lucia Errity, who holds needle felt painting courses at her countryside gallery that are inspired by the ancient beauty of the Boyne Valley landscape. Details We were invited by Fáilte Ireland to visit Meath and Louth for the purpose of review. Prices for one night accommodation at Ghan House start at €210 for B&B for two people sharing from June. Dinner and breakfast was provided by Fáilte Ireland.
NDTV
26-05-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
NDTV Explains: India vs China In Race For Arctic Oil, Gas, Shipping Routes
Unlike China, India is seen as slow-playing its Arctic card, choosing to cooperate with the Council and present itself as a 'responsible stakeholder' by engaging with all sides on key issues. Welcome to the Arctic Circle. The race to 'conquer' the world's final frontier is gathering steam and India is gently but firmly positioning itself in that contest, one which China has also entered and which has been given added urgency by Russian military actions in 2014 (the Crimean War) and 2022 (invasion of Ukraine). The 'rewards' are staggering though - from oil and minerals to drinking water, from access to faster shipping routes to a possibly decisive upper hand in the global geopolitical and military arena. Advertisement - Scroll to continue A remote and largely inhospitable region of the world, the Arctic has emerged as the next global geopolitical and geostrategic hotspot, possibly even the next battlefield, thanks to climate change and the warming of polar ice caps. But its strategic importance has never really been in doubt. It has, for the most part, been a question of access, specifically terrain so bleak it made extracting oil and other natural resources, navigating the waters, or maintaining military bases near-impossible. Where is the Arctic? What we identify as the Arctic is the northernmost region of our planet. The common definition is that area within the Arctic Circle, a line of latitude about 66.5 degrees north of the Equator. Within this area are the Arctic Ocean and the polar ice caps, and over four million people from eight countries - the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. There are also an estimated 500,000 people from indigenous tribal communities. Together, they make up the Arctic Council, countries with territories inside the Arctic and "carry the role as stewards of the region", and which India has been 'engaging' for several years. In 2013 India was made an 'observer nation' of the Council. What is in the Arctic? Compressed into approximately 14.5 million square kilometres, the Arctic holds 13 per cent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of all undiscovered natural gas stores. That amounts to 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, which are hydrocarbons extracted from natural gas or crude Dark blue regions have at least one undiscovered oil and/or gas field. Photo: United States Geological Survey It also contains vast reserves of coal, iron, copper, zinc, nickel, bauxite, diamonds, and sulphides, and also millions of tons of phosphate used to make fertilisers. The Arctic also holds an estimated 20 of the world's freshwater reserves, which is a commodity that could well become more valuable than any other in the not-too-distant future. Dark green-shaded areas are believed to have over 10 billion barrels of undiscovered oil Photo Credit: United States Geological Survey There is gold too; the Fort Knox Gold Mine in Alaska is one of the largest in the world. And Arctic shipping routes could allow maritime trade to cut down on 8,000 km as they ferry the estimated billions of tons of cargo shipped annually between the Europe and Asia. Why is the Arctic important now Because it is melting. Global warming means the Arctic's ice caps and the vast stretches of frozen ice that make it impossible for most ships to pass - certainly not without an ice-breaker plowing a path before your vessel - are melting, at a rate nearly four times faster than anywhere else in the world. This opens the door to begin extracting those billions of barrels of oil, a treasure trove countries doing the extraction, for example, could use to reduce dependence on West Asian suppliers. It also opens the door to millions of tons of coal and precious metals under the ice. An icebreaker is a special-purpose ship or boat that navigates through ice-covered waters (File). Overall, the melting of the ice caps has woken the world to the natural resources and strategic importance of the Arctic, both of which interest countries beyond the Council, including India. In fact, on May 3 and 4, 2025, the Observer Research Foundation and the Arctic Circle, a 60-nation "network of international dialogue and cooperation" met in Delhi to discuss Asia's involvement in Arctic affairs, including polar research, trade, climate change, and geopolitics. India v China for the Arctic Back in 2018, China's first Arctic Policy spoke of a mutually beneficial polar partnership that included linking its Belt Road Initiative to the Northern Sea Route to create the 'Polar Silk Route'. The resulting passageway, Beijing said, would shorten maritime travel time to Europe by 40 per cent. The longer route, in use now, sees Chinese ships sail down south, through the Malacca Strait (between the Malay Peninsula and Indonesia, a chokepoint that allows the Indian Navy to monitor maritime traffic off its coastline), across the Indian Ocean, and then back up through the Suez Canal. Since then, i.e., since articulating its Arctic Policy, China has been called itself as a 'near-Arctic state', and has sought a seat at the Arctic Council, something that is not likely to be granted. However, Beijing too was given 'observer nation' status. For China the Arctic quest is more about trade, really, than anything else. As one of the world's largest manufacturers (of pretty much everything), it needs fast and reliable distribution routes, and ships are generally cost-effective compared to planes. And the Malacca chokepoint isn't ideal, particularly if there should be military conflict with India. Faster maritime trade is a big attraction for India too. India's involvement with the Arctic dates back to 1920, when the Svalbard Treaty was signed in Paris. And today it is one of a handful of nations to have a permanent base in the Arctic. Set up in 2008 and called 'Himadri', it is in the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, roughly 1,200km from the North Pole, and has provided field and laboratory support to scientists back home. India's research base in Arctic, 'Himadri'. Photo: National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research Unlike China, India is seen as slow-playing its Arctic card, choosing to cooperate with the Council and present itself as a 'responsible stakeholder' by engaging with all sides on key issues, including, for example, research into microbial organisms and hydropower generation. India has good ties with Norway, for example, with which it has studied climate change, and also has a friendly relationship with both Russia and the United States. All this, though, could change, particularly as China steps up designs on the Arctic, which includes the tried-and-tested method of pumping billions into ' infrastructure projects. Beijing has reportedly bought real estate in Iceland, invested money in Greenland airports and bought into Russian projects, though they have been rebuffed by Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Nevertheless, this has alarmed the West, and this has given India an opportunity, a chance to be the friendly and trustworthy face in the growing list of suitors for the Arctic Circle. NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat. Share Sign up to read this article FREE! Exclusive Stories: Dive into content reserved just for members. Fewer Ads: A cleaner, more enjoyable reading experience. Enhanced Interface: Tailored just for you. Join Now – It's Free!
