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New York Times
16-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Stanley Cup Checklist 2.0: Analyzing the rosters of the NHL playoff teams
After a necessary Cup Checklist refresh, it's time to see how it applies to this year's 16 playoff teams. For those who need a quick reminder, the Cup Checklist is a guide based on the rosters of Stanley Cup champions from the last 15 years. It's a five-point threshold based on the average player from those rosters, separated by role. There are 13 roles separated into three cores. Here's what that looks like. Let's dive in, with the 16 teams separated into five tiers based on how many boxes they tick on the Cup Checklist. All values are normalized to six goals per win to account for changing scoring environments over the last 15 years. Teams are sorted and separated based on the number of players ranked solid or above, ideal or above, and total Cup Checklist value. What works No team checks more boxes than the Lightning, who hit the 'solid' mark in all but three instances. Just as impressive is that they hit 'ideal' targets more than half the time. That's mostly thanks to a ridiculously stacked forward group led by Nikita Kucherov, who is somehow even better than the 2020 and 2021 versions of himself. This Kucherov is a luxury as a franchise forward, he's been that good. Brayden Point remains by his side, but it's the addition of Jake Guentzel and the emergence of Brandon Hagel that really takes things up a notch. Between Guentzel and Point, the Lightning have the league's better third-scorer option, while Hagel's two-way game is seriously special. Add Anthony Cirelli's massive impact at both ends of the ice and the Lightning have the best quintet of forwards in hockey. With the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, depth behind them isn't a problem either. Advertisement Defensively, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak are about as good as it gets as a shutdown pair, allowing Victor Hedman to keep doing his thing as the No. 1. They help make life easy for Andrei Vasilevskiy who looks like his vintage self this season. The Lightning are loaded where it counts. What doesn't Tampa Bay's one exception to the rule is the lack of a scoring defenseman after Hedman. That was the trade-off the Lightning made when they shipped off Mikhail Sergachev in order to reacquire McDonagh. With how potent this team's forward group is, it made sense to prioritize the defense group in this way. Still, it's a void not capably filled by either Darren Raddysh or J.J. Moser. On top of that, there's also the question of Victor Hedman's defensive game. It's bounced back from years past now that he's back to a secondary matchup role, but still not enough to be above average. That's a concern given the team's depth defenders aren't strong in that regard either. As good as McDonagh and Cernak are, they may not have the necessary defensive support around them. Hedman being his vintage self without the puck is crucial to the Lightning going deep in a tough division. What works No team enters the playoffs without one 'exception to the rule' but Florida is close if you average out Gustav Forsling's two boxes. That bodes well for their hopes of going back-to-back. Hockey is a strong link game and it pays to have a high quantity of those strong links. Mission accomplished for Florida. Between Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, the Panthers might have the best big three in hockey. And their forward depth after that is stupid good. Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett are a nice combo in the top six. On the third line, the combination of Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen offers a lot of defensive peace of mind. Advertisement With Sergei Bobrosvky looking solid, the Panthers look like they'll be very tough to knock off. What doesn't If we have to nitpick, it's probably with Florida's top four — which already sounds silly given who occupies it. Mainly, the issue is the team's defensive game after Forsling. Aaron Ekblad has seen a real drop-off there and while Mikkola is a rock, his Defensive Rating does pale in comparison to the other shutdown defenders from years past. Last year that role went to Ekblad as Brandon Montour filled the scoring defenseman role. With Ekblad regressing, Mikkola shifts up where he doesn't quite stack up. Even as a 'defensive defenseman,' Ekblad's game doesn't stack up to past players, though he at least makes up for it with his offense. The Panthers can probably get away with that with offense being the team's source of strength this year. But it does mean Florida will only have two real defensive needle-movers in the top four this year. Will that be enough against the offensive firepower in Tampa Bay and Toronto? What works The Stars have some serious firepower. While Jason Robertson is only passable as a franchise guy, the rest of the forward group stacks up extremely well offensively. Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment and Mikael Granlund? That's as deep as it gets. Combine that with having Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley bringing the puck up ice and joining the attack and the Stars' offense will feel relentless. Between Heiskanen, Harley and Esa Lindell, the Stars have the defensive might on the back end to take things to another level. With Jake Oettinger's stellar goaltending, Dallas looks well-situated to go all the way this season when healthy. What doesn't The Stars haven't looked right without Heiskanen and while he's likely to return during the first round, the Stars will have to survive in the meantime. Their defensive depth is a big problem and it shows with a glaring red box in the depth core. Having Ilya Lyubushkin or Cody Ceci or Matt Dumba as the team's options for a No. 4 is truly harrowing. Advertisement Defense is also an issue with the forward group, where Hintz doesn't appear to be a particularly adequate shutdown forward. He once flashed that skill set in the past, but his defensive numbers lately haven't agreed with that reputation. The Stars don't have a depth forward that can offer support defensively either. Only six of Dallas' forwards grade out above average defensively and two of them are fourth-liners. The Stars make up for that offensively, but there's a chance the team is a bit too one-dimensional in that vein. Without Heiskanen to start, they'll need to drastically outscore defensive deficiencies even further. Compared to other contenders, there may be too many exceptions to the rule here. What works Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are still a luxury duo — even if the former forgot how to score this year. The two continue to be among the game's best forwards, capable of scoring 100 points while not sacrificing any defense in return. That's hard to do and is Toronto's biggest advantage. Having William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies around that duo makes for an extremely strong top end offensively with some defensive bite to go along with it. This season, the back end looks significantly beefed up defensively thanks to the additions of Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo. Both make the Leafs a lot tougher to score on. Not more than Anthony Stolarz, though, who has been an absolute revelation. The Leafs have never entered a playoff in this era with goaltending as strong as what they have now. Maybe that's finally the difference. What doesn't The Leafs face the same two major problems they always do: they do not have a franchise defenseman and their depth is fairly inadequate. Jake McCabe is a great defenseman and is perfectly acceptable without the puck to be a team's top guy. But offensively and overall, he's lacking. His lack of offense is a symptom of the entire blue line, where Morgan Rielly also doesn't grade out that well next to past scoring defensemen on Cup teams. If the Leafs win, they'll be the exception to the rule: winning it all with a top-four-by-committee approach. No true No. 1. On top of that, the team's depth after the team's top five forwards takes a steep nosedive. Bobby McMann once looked passable as the sixth option, but has fallen into a slump. After him the offensive options only get worse. If Matthews and co. at the top get cold — as they often do in the playoffs — the Leafs don't seem to have the depth scoring to cover. Advertisement What works Connor Hellebuyck is the luxury of all luxuries. If he's dialed in, the Jets can beat anyone. What sets this version of the Jets apart though is that it's not just Hellebuyck. Josh Morrissey is a perfect franchise defenseman, the team's depth looks really strong and Dylan Samberg has stepped up as a shutdown force. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have also elevated their games considerably this season, finally looking like the kind of one-two punch a team can win with. Add solid offensive efforts from Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, and the Jets look poised to go deep. What doesn't Yes, Adam Lowry is the team's actual shutdown forward. But it's not ideal that the team doesn't have someone worthy of that role in the top six. The team's stars are better, no question (though still only 'passable'), but it would be very helpful to have a defensively capable player at the top of the lineup. Vilardi is an awkward fit there. In the same vein, Cole Perfetti as the team's fifth-best offensive option is not ideal either. Those are two problems a solid second-line center could fix in one fell swoop and that remains Winnipeg's biggest hole. On the back end, the team may not have enough offensive punch after Morrissey. Neal Pionk is better than his biggest detractors argue online, but as an offensive No. 2/3 he still comes in below what a Cup winner usually offers. He's the weakest link in the team's top four. What works If you were surprised to see the Kings this high, that makes two of us. But having 40 percent of the Cup Checklist filled by players that are 'ideal' or better is pretty eye-opening. Only the Lightning and Panthers have more. Mostly, that stems from the Kings being a defensive powerhouse. Drew Doughty, Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov is an embarrassment of defensive riches. Same goes for Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault's defensive depth game, not to mention the defensive combo of Quinton Byfield and Anze Kopitar. The Kings are built to shut teams down. What makes the Kings extra intriguing this year, though, is the goalie behind all of that. Darcy Kuemper has been lights-out over the last month or so and that makes the team an even bigger defensive force. Their plus-37 Defensive Rating is right on par with the 2012 and 2014 champions. Advertisement This franchise has a blueprint they already won with a decade ago. They're following it to a tee this season. What doesn't One of the reasons to be surprised is because there are still major questions about whether the Kings have the offense to hang with the best of the West. Their two best players are Byfield and Adrian Kempe, and with all due respect to those two great players, they're a shade below what's expected of Cup champions. Byfield is the wild card there and looks to be ready to take over as The Guy, but that still feels like it's a year away. Elevating to that level in these playoffs though would be a game-changer — the kind that could net the Kings the Cup. Offense from the blue line is another sore spot. That's brought about by the team's top defender, Doughty, not measuring up offensively anymore and the team's prized prospect, Brandt Clarke, being mostly untrustworthy without the puck to play in the top four. The Kings are elite defensively, but can they score enough when it matters? What works Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are the top forward and defenseman duo in the league and for Colorado, everything flows after that. It allows an easier time for the Avalanche to fill spots around them, though a lot of spots are filled by players strong in their own right. Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Nelson and Logan O'Connor fill out the depth nicely and the imminent return of Gabriel Landeskog could create a major spark. While no one knows what Landeskog can do after so much time off, if he can just be average as he's penciled in here, he would make for a very valuable depth forward. At his best, he was obviously much more than that, which would be a big plus. On defense, Devon Toews is a strong shutdown force next to Makar. In net, Mackenzie Blackwood was a savvy addition who's thrived in Colorado. His presence could be the difference in a series. What doesn't I've been vocal in the past about Colorado's defensive depth and this speaks to why. I don't think Samuel Girard offers enough offensive spark behind Makar and I'm not sure Josh Manson still has the defensive juice behind Toews. In terms of support, that pair is lacking and has earned a 38 percent goal rate this season. That's far from ideal and a major sore spot in the lineup. Advertisement The absence of Mikko Rantanen is also evident. As great as Martin Necas has filled in offensively, he's no Rantanen. His play-driving has been a pleasant surprise with the Avalanche as his skill set fits the team's system better, but his 28 points in 30 games with Colorado does show what the team has lost production-wise compared to Rantanen's 64 in 49. In that vein, the drop-off after MacKinnon to the team's next best weapon is fairly sizeable. MacKinnon is one of the best players in the league, but the lack of a premier sidekick does hurt Colorado a little. That's felt on the defensive side of things as well with Artturi Lehkonen falling just shy of expectations as a shutdown forward. What works Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard. Next question. What doesn't Mattias Ekholm likely being out for the season is a big blow, which pushed the Oilers down a tier. The Oilers are deep enough defensively after acquiring Jake Walman that the back end should still be a source of strength, just not to the degree it once was. Ekholm is a much better shutdown option than Darnell Nurse, who would have been a luxury as the team's No. 3. As the No. 2 and top defensive option, Nurse might be overwhelmed. As much as I appreciate Brett Kulak's defensive game, he's not an ideal No. 4 on a contender. The biggest issue, though, remains between the pipes. The model holds Stuart Skinner in higher regard than it should thanks to being a strong netminder during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 regular seasons. But he took a major step back this year and has had his share of playoff troubles. Losing a key defensive piece in front of Skinner doesn't help either. If everyone plays their part — and that includes Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins bouncing back to their expected rates here, which is no guarantee — the Oilers still have a strong enough roster. The offensive brilliance of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard gives Edmonton a lot of leeway elsewhere and they do check a lot of boxes, even if it's to the bare minimum threshold. But this team cut too many corners last summer and it shows. Without Ekholm the Oilers look vulnerable. They may not have the overall depth to survive a blow that big. What works While no team checks every box, Vegas is right there with Florida. William Karlsson is good enough defensively to make up for lesser offensive contributions. This is a really strong team with few, if any, holes where it matters. Shea Theodore is the team's best defenseman and leads a strong top four of Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo (whose offense makes up for weaker defense in his category) and Brayden McNabb. The emergence of Pavel Dorofeyev has been a blessing as he's more than adequately replaced Jonathan Marchessault's scoring. There's strong forward depth behind him with Ivan Barbashev, Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith. Advertisement Vegas looks ready for another championship. What doesn't With only two 'ideal' checkmarks, Vegas falls way off the mark from the team's above. Vegas is one of five teams who hit the 'ideal' mark 13 percent or less — and the other four are in the bottom tier. Everyone in the top three tiers has at least two more ideal fits and many have more. So while it's nice that Vegas has checked a lot of boxes, other contenders have done so more emphatically. If hockey is a strong-link game, the other contenders have stronger links than Vegas and that could simply be the difference. That means what it'll take to win is everyone elevating their game and going the extra mile. That's what Vegas got out of its roster in 2023, and knowing that may be enough to offer hope. It won't be easy to pull off again, but this team does know how to win. What works Defensively, the Hurricanes have a one-two punch that's tough to beat. Jaccob Slavin is one of the league's best and grades out really well next to other franchise defenders. Up front, Seth Jarvis looks like the next Mark Stone and already looks like Carolina's most valuable player. Further down the lineup, both Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook continue to be premier shutdown forces making the Hurricanes a tough team to score on. The Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov duo is pretty solid too. Offensively, Shayne Gostisbehere brings a lot of juice from the backend while Logan Stankoven is fine as a depth player for now. It should also be noted that there are a lot of players not included in the Cup Checklist and they matter too. L0oking at that group alone, Carolina is among the strongest of any postseason team. What doesn't Same as always: a lack of stars. Mikko Rantanen works as a star forward. Martin Necas would too. Andrei Svechnikov has not elevated his offensive game to that level yet and currently looks miscast. Maybe he'll get there one day, just not today. Advertisement With Rantanen or Necas around, Svechnikov would fit better as a scoring forward, Jackson Blake would fit better as a support forward and Jordan Martinook would fit better as a depth forward. Instead, the offensive expectations become potentially more than those players can handle and it's not like they have an elite offensive duo to lean on in Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis either. With Slavin not being an offensively-minded player either, it becomes a question of whether this team has the offensive game-breakers to go the distance. The usual. What works Kirill Kaprizov is a superstar. What he showed in the season's first half as a potential MVP favourite only confirmed that and he's an ideal franchise forward. That says a lot. Joel Eriksson Ek is a sturdy shudown forward while Jonas Brodin offers the same piece of mind on the backend. As mild as the Wild have been this season, it's important to remember how much of the season they played without those three core pieces. They're a different team with those guys in the lineup. Down the line, Marcus Foligno has bounced back nicely this season and is back to being a key defensive piece. Couple that with the emergence of Marco Rossi and Minnesota's forward depth looks a lot better than expected at the start of the season. What doesn't The Wild do not have enough offense from the blue line. Spurgeon isn't built that way as the team's best defenseman and Brock Faber — whose numbers have really fallen off in the second half — looks over-extended in that role as well. This is a big part of what makes the Wild such an offensively anemic hockey team. Can Zeev Buium, who scored 48 points in 41 games in college, be the answer to that problem? It may be unfair to put those expectations on someone who was in an Econ 101 class last week, but Buium looks pretty special. For the Wild to go far this season, he'll need to be that right out of the gate. Considering he was scratched in their final game, though, Wild fans shouldn't hold their breath. Minnesota's other Achilles' heel is in net. Filip Gustavsson was a great story to start, but his game has faltered since and has been propped up by a strong defense in front of him. By GSAx he ranked 25th this season. Couple with his disasturous 2023-24 season and the model views him as the weakest goalie at the playoffs. The only Cup winner he surpasses over the last 15 seasons is Antti Niemi in 2010. The Wild are strong enough to make him look good, but it comes at an offensive cost. That lack of balance may be what keeps them from going far. What works Whatever they've done this season. While the projected values above may not look great, they're born of uncertainty. There have been a lot of players having breakthrough or bounce-back years — the Capitals only need that to continue for 25 more games. Here's the list of just 2024-25 ratings per 82 games for relevant players, and how that would grade out by the Cup Checklist. Advertisement Pierre-Luc Dubois: +10.7/+3.4/+14.1 — Passable Alex Ovechkin: +14.2 Off. Rtg — Ideal John Carlson: +12.0/+1.3/+13.3 — Solid Tom Wilson: +10.0/+2.0/+12.0 — Solid Jakob Chychrun: +6.2 Off. Rtg — Ideal Aliaksei Protas: +9.9/+1.9/+11.8 — Luxury Connor McMichael: +8.5 Off. Rtg — Luxury That's a lot of players who the model believes have played well enough to move up a tier (or two) if they can keep it up. And that doesn't even include Logan Thompson, who was one of the league's best goalies this season. Beyond that, the support and depth cores look strong enough as is. The Capitals' retool has been wildly successful and it shows most there. That group of eight is championship-caliber — with or without regression. What doesn't It's the top five where the biggest questions lie, namely with the most important forwards. Can Dubois and Wilson really be the focal point of a championship team? There is zero question that they've been good enough this year to be one of the league's very best shutdown lines. The question is whether it continues going forward given their lack of history playing at such a high level. Same goes for Ovechkin's superhuman scoring at his age and Carlson's late-career renaissance. It's a question of sustainability which fans understandably hate, but that doesn't make it any less fair. It's more than possible the model is wrong here and is too slow to pick up on Washington's dominant shutdown duo and the vintage play of the team's veterans. But its stubbornness should at least create pause now that the top guys are about to match up against the league's absolute best teams. Washington has the depth to mitigate that, but it is very rare for a Stanley Cup-winning team's core group to grade out this low. At the very least, the team's top guys are passable. Maybe that's enough. What works Linus Ullmark was a fantastic get for the Senators and proved his worth in the second half. Combine that with a shutdown pair of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub and Ottawa's defensive backbone looks strong. The depth core — augmented by the acquisition of Dylan Cozens — looks solid, and Thomas Chabot has been a great offensive piece from the backend. Advertisement What doesn't This is Ottawa's first year making the playoffs in this era so there's still plenty of time for the Senators to get where they need to. The main concern at the moment is whether the top end has enough offensive juice — especially after a down year for Brady Tkachuk. He and Tim Stützle are passable, but even then they're only a big two. Most Cup contenders have a big three or even four up front. Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto and Dylan Cozens don't inspire enough confidence offensively at the moment to be named in the same breath as Tkachuk and Stützle. Not on a serious contender. In order for Ottawa to take the next step, Tkachuk and Stützle need to elevate a little bit more, but they also need immediate help behind them. What works It's difficult to fully judge the Devils without Jack Hughes, but it is promising that the team's elite core still looks capable. Nico Hischier sliding in seamlessly as a franchise forward is not something many teams can boast and is one reason why there's so much optimism surrounding New Jersey's future. Jesper Bratt is a star, Dougie Hamilton remains an offensive force, Timo Meier drives play, and Jacob Markstrom is a strong starter. The top of the lineup still looks great. Some other pieces also standout, namely Johnathan Kovaecevic as a secondary defensive driver and newcomer Cody Glass as a defensive depth forward. What doesn't With Hughes, a lot of things fall into place more naturally. He'd grade out as an ideal franchise forward while Hischier would be an ideal shutdown forward. That would push Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen and Dawson Mercer down — all into more appropriate spots on the team. Unfortunately, Hughes isn't playing which means a weak support core that leaves the team's immediate depth wanting. Noesen is not a good enough scorer to be the team's fourth option and Mercer hasn't shown enough offensively yet to be a difference-maker. It's not good enough. The Devils are one of just two teams without an 'ideal' fit somewhere on the list. There is also the question of Hamilton's defense. His minus-3.1 Defensive Rating would be the worst of any No. 1 defender to win the Cup. That's a problem that needs to be addressed. Advertisement What works The biggest standout under Jim Montgomery has been the team's improved defensive game and that shows with Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Colton Parayko being sources of defensive strength. Jordan Binnington remains a solid goaltender as well. Young players like Jimmy Snuggerud and Zachary Bolduc beef up the team's depth. There are a lot of solid pieces here, most of whom are young enough to offer the Blues a bright future. What doesn't Almost every piece is not 'great enough' and that's the concern with this team's ceiling — especially offensively. Robert Thomas, with the way he's played over the last month, carries high hopes, but the team needs much more around him. Can Jordan Kyrou take his game up a notch? Can Pavel Buchnevich bounce back? Can Holloway keep up his torrid pace under Montgomery (and return in time from injury)? Can Snuggerud (or Dalibor Dvorsky) be legitimate difference-makers? Can Broberg emerge as capable enough offensively to become a true No. 1? Those are the questions facing the Blues now and going forward. The talent is there for this team to answer them in the playoffs, but for now there's just a bit too much uncertainty. At the very least, though, the fact they have actual players that have the potential to answer those questions is a big step up from where the team was to start the season. With how they've played under Montgomery, it wouldn't be a shock to see some exceptions prove otherwise in the postseason. What works Lane Hutson is a game-changer already. He's an offensively solid franchise defenseman on a Cup contender — an incredible feat for a rookie. His defensive game has improved, but is still questionable overall. Solving that is the next step in his progress. The Canadiens have a lot of passable pieces throughout and in net, Sam Montembeault is more than good enough to steal games. What doesn't Montreal wasn't expected to make it this far; to do so is already a success. It should be no surprise the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoffs and it shows by how many exceptions would have to be made to view them as a true contender. Most of those exceptions come on the defensive side of things: Hutson as a franchise defenseman, Guhle as a shutdown defender, and the lack of a positive defensive forward outside of Nick Suzuki. Even Suzuki, as good as he's been over the last couple of months, falls just shy of what's needed as a team's No. 1 forward. Advertisement Having said that — there is a clear path to moving up. That starts with Ivan Demidov (whose projections here are based on his superb KHL totals) becoming a franchise forward. If that happens while Hutson's defensive game matures, everything falls into place. Nick Suzuki would be an ideal shutdown forward, while Juraj Slafkovsky would face less pressure with an expectation as a scoring forward. The Canadiens are very green and there's a lot of work to do, but the pieces are there. Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockey Stat Cards (Top photo of Aleksander Barkov against the Tampa Bay Lightning: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
New York Times
15-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Stanley Cup Checklist 2.0: Analyzing the rosters of the last 15 NHL champions
There's no exact formula for winning the Stanley Cup, but there are common elements between champions. That was the vision behind the Cup Checklist introduced five years ago. Now it's time for an update. The vision this time? Accounting for roles. While a checklist that breaks down the thresholds previous Cup winners hit at certain positions is good practice, two problems arose. Advertisement The first is comparing the wrong players due to position rigidity. Nikita Kucherov was the best forward on the two Lightning championship teams and should probably be compared to other Cup-winning best players, not just the best wingers. The second is looking only at total value and then comparing the wrong values. Some players provide one-dimensional offense, some are shutdown forces, and some are complete, 200-foot players. Those distinctions matter when finding the right pieces for a Stanley Cup contender. With the introduction of Offensive and Defensive Rating in 2023 and the necessary usage adjustments made in 2024, the distinctions that matter are also easier to spot. It's what made this update necessary, with five extra seasons of data to boot. The new Cup Checklist focuses on role more than position and looks at the appropriate values that define that role. It also looks at each item on the checklist with a five-point scale, allowing for a bit more nuance if a team is stronger or weaker in one role compared to another. Here's how that works. Luxury (>90%): A player in the top 10 percent of his role relative to other Cup winners. Someone who brings an exceptional amount of value that allows a team some significant slack in other areas. Or, it's the kind of difference-maker who puts a team over the top. Ideal (70-90%): A player who is above average for his role relative to other Cup winners. This is where champions find sources of strength on their roster. They're players to lean on who add more to their role than expected, making up for some weaknesses elsewhere. Solid (30-70%): A player right in the middle of the range of other Cup winners. Nothing fancy here, just the average expectation with a fair bit of leeway above and below the mean. Passable (10-30%): A player who is below average for his role relative to other Cup winners. It's not ideal, but teams have still won with a player at this level. It's a potential weakness that should be countered with a source of strength elsewhere. Advertisement Exception (<10%): A player in the bottom 10 percent of his role relative to other Cup winners. Essentially, they're the 'exception to the rule.' It's not that a team can't win with an exception to the rule (some already have!), it just means that player has to play above his means when it matters, or the team has to make up ground elsewhere. It's a potential liability that could be the team's downfall. On the more hopeful side, it's where a team needs a playoff breakthrough. The postseason is where legends are born and a lot of great stories start here: with a player who went above and beyond expectations. As always, none of this is meant to be a hard-and-fast rule. But previous patterns can help show us which teams are currently built best to win — and which ones have their work cut out for them. Here's the new Cup Checklist, separated into three cores: elite, support and depth. There are 13 roles to fill; for the 'too long, didn't read' crowd, here's a chart summarizing those roles and where each threshold lies. All values are normalized to six goals per win to account for different scoring environments over the last 15 years. The most obvious piece needed is an elite forward: ideally, one who can play at an MVP-caliber level. Usually, this is a team's top-line center — Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Nathan MacKinnon — but sometimes it's a winger. Kucherov was the most important forward in Tampa Bay's back-to-back wins and looks right at home here, sandwiched between Crosby and Toews. Alex Ovechkin in 2018 also grades out well. One key here: two-way play. While Ovechkin is the exception to the rule, every other player had an above-average Defensive Rating, with the majority at least clearing a 2.0 rating. On average, teams are looking for a plus-14.0/plus-2.5 split between Offensive and Defensive Ratings, but any Net Rating above 15 is usually good to go. Advertisement There are also two 'types' of players here who can inform the rest of the lineup. Column A is Hart Trophy-caliber offensive studs: Crosby, Kucherov, MacKinnon, Ovechkin. Column B is Selke Trophy-caliber two-way studs: Aleksander Barkov, Toews, Anze Kopitar, Ryan O'Reilly. Both are valid avenues. As for the lack of luxury forwards, think Crosby and Connor McDavid in their primes. Crosby, as great as he still was when he won, wasn't quite at the level of his 2007-2013 self. The exception to the rule: The 2011 Bruins owe a lot to Tim Thomas, which is highlighted by their best forward being David Krejci. No disrespect to Krejci, but at that point in his career, he was a 60-point forward. While he didn't look the part during the season, Krejci played closer to a franchise forward in the playoffs. He put up 23 points in 25 games while earning 65 percent of goals at five-on-five. If a player doesn't project to qualify, that kind of elevation needs to be seen. If the franchise forward is usually the team's best offensive weapon, there's usually a star forward behind him to help. Toews had Patrick Kane, Crosby had Evgeni Malkin and MacKinnon had Mikko Rantanen. Every team has a Robin for their Batman. That means a player whose Offensive Rating is, on average, north of plus-12, but anything above plus-10 works. For these guys, defense is important, but it is less of a priority. That's usually because a lot of these players are wingers, or the centers of a scoring line rather than a shutdown line. On average, their Defensive Rating is plus-0.9. Still good, but it does pale in comparison to the franchise and shutdown forwards. Here, creating offense is the primary source of value. The franchise forward needs a sidekick whose motive is attacking. The exception to the rule: The Golden Knights were tricky to fit. They're the only team for which I decided to not put the best player (according to the model, anyway) in the franchise spot. It just didn't work with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone flipped for anyone who knows hockey. Either way, it also left an awkward fit in the star forward category. Chandler Stephenson's projected Offensive Rating that year was plus-6.2. That's a strong mark, sure, but one that doesn't quite compare to the Kanes and Brayden Points of the world. To Stephenson's credit, he was second on the team in points with 65 and was close to a point-per-game player in the playoffs. But there's a reason he graded out a little lower than the rest. With how good Eichel was with Jonathan Marchessault in the playoffs though, it didn't matter. A deep team can find new players to fit the necessary roles, which allowed Stephenson to take a back seat toward the support core instead. Advertisement Just as important as the franchise forward is the franchise defenseman. Almost every Stanley Cup champion had a leader on the back end, someone they could lean on in any situation all over the ice. These were minute-eating 200-foot players who could do it all with few exceptions. Even Justin Schultz, taking over for Kris Letang, was rocking a plus-8.5 Net Rating in 2017. That's the bar, at the very least, and it's a necessary one to clear as it's very difficult to win without that kind of player. That's notable at both ends of the ice where the average Offensive and Defensive Rating split is plus-9.2/plus-2.1, but something closer to plus-7.5/plus-1.0 can also work. It's not just that the team's best defenseman has to be good — they also have to be multi-dimensional forces. Cale Makar is a luxury in that vein, but it applies all the same to Victor Hedman, Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Zdeno Chara and Kris Letang. Those teams won because their best defenseman was also one of the best defensemen in the world. They could score, they could defend, they could move the puck, they could drive play, they could push the pace. They were everything. The exception to the rule: If there's any exception here, it has to be Schultz. Offensively, he certainly filled in well enough in Letang's absence. But his minus-1.0 Defensive Rating is telling to the player he was — even at his very best. The Penguins managed, and one other team also won with a below-average defender as their No. 1, but doing so is still playing with fire. Schultz's 2.66 xGA/60 during the playoffs in 2017 was the worst among Penguins defensemen. Like the franchise defenseman, it's necessary to view the team's shutdown forward at both ends of the ice. Locking down the opposition's best is the main job, but they have to deliver some semblance of offense, too. While this may feel like an odd category given a lot of teams' franchise forwards are usually also their top defensive guys, it makes some sense in conjunction with the star forward. Both are usually sidekicks, with opposing leans toward offense (the star) and defense (the shutdown-er). Point and Anthony Cirelli are both important pieces around Kucherov. Kane and Marian Hossa are both important pieces around Toews. Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart are both important pieces around Barkov. It's a big three and pretty much every championship team has had one. The goal here is a plus-8.0/plus-2.5 split for Offensive and Defensive Ratings — essentially a player in the 90th percentile league-wide at both ends of the ice. A plus-6.0/plus-2.0 split also works. Advertisement How good a shutdown forward needs to be depends on how good the top two forwards are above him, or how strong the back end is. But it's their strength that can really help put a team over the top. They help anchor the forward group. That's either by forming a shutdown line with the franchise forward and allowing the star to dominate (Chicago, Florida) or by soaking up tough minutes on the second line, allowing for an offensively focused top line (Tampa Bay, Washington). Both strategies work. The exception to the rule: There aren't many. Almost every team had a player whose splits were at least plus-4.0/plus-1.5 — a very good two-way forward. By total Net Rating, only two players were below plus-7.5. The one exception might be the 2021 version of Cirelli. He thrust himself into the Selke conversation in 2020, but 2021 was a down year by his standards with the Lightning earning just 46 percent of goals in his minutes. He made up for it, though, with a vintage performance come playoff time when he was the two-way force we expect him to be. Goalies are goalies. You can plan for them to be as good as possible, but in the small sample world of the playoffs, anything can happen. Still, a true starter lowers the margin for error. The higher the baseline, the more dependable a goalie is to deliver as expected. The average Cup-winning starter was projected to save 7.7 goals above expected per 82 games and the list is littered with guys you can count on. Having a superstar — like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Jonathan Quick — really helps, especially if they catch fire when it matters. The exception to the rule: It's not that Adin Hill was necessarily an average goalie in 2023, it's just that he didn't have a large body of work. His light resume made him less of a safe bet. That season, though, Hill did save 7.5 goals above expected in 27 games and looked to be Vegas' best goalie option. It was a complete reversal from his career to date, over which he allowed 8.3 goals above expected in 74 contests. All Vegas needed was Hill to keep up what he did in 2022-23 — no regression. That's exactly what the Golden Knights got, and more: a .930 save percentage in which Hill saved 13 goals above expected in 16 games. The best teams have serious firepower. That's where the scoring forward comes in: as another weapon. It can't just be on the team's top-scoring duo to deliver — they need a third and fourth legit top-line threat to help out. The Lightning won because they had Steven Stamkos behind Kucherov and Point. The Panthers won because they had Carter Verhaeghe behind Barkov and Tkachuk. The Avalanche won because they had Nazem Kadri behind MacKinnon and Rantanen. The Blackhawks won because they had Patrick Sharp behind Toews and Kane. The list goes on and the goal is a team's third- (or fourth-, depending on the strength of the shutdown forward) best offensive threat delivering an Offensive Rating north of plus-7.5. Anything above plus-5.0 works. Advertisement The exception to the rule: With Stamkos out for the 2020 playoffs, the Lightning needed somebody to step up in his place. As you can see above, there's a massive chasm between Stamkos in 2021 and Alex Killorn in 2020 — a nine-goal difference in offensive value. While other 'exception to the rule' stories show a player rising to the occasion, this one doesn't. Killorn wilted, scoring just 10 points in 24 games while getting outchanced and badly outscored. The Lightning were so great otherwise, thanks to transcendent performances from their elite core, that it didn't matter — but lesser-built teams would not have been so lucky. It's the exact reason why it really helps to have a few players in the 'ideal' or 'luxury' category. When a player like Killorn fails to step up, the others cover. Offense from the blue line matters — it can't just come from one source. Every past champion had at least one defender after the franchise guy who delivered above-average offense, with the majority having an Offensive Rating above plus-3.0. That doesn't have to mean a defenseman who scores points, it just means someone who can help create and add pressure up ice. Offense is a numbers game and it helps to have a defender who can join the fun. Mikhail Sergachev is a perfect example of this archetype, especially because the Lightning used him on the third pair. Having a guy of this caliber crushing sheltered minutes is a huge luxury, one only afforded by having other key pieces playing at a high level. The Blues also had this with Vince Dunn in 2019. Usually, though, this type of player is on the second pair, balanced by a defensive defender on the other side. While offense is the name of the game here, defensive responsibility also matters. The majority of scoring defensemen carried an above-average Defensive Rating, with an average of plus-0.4. This is a No. 2 or 3 defender who shouldn't be one-dimensional. After all, they'll usually have some shutdown responsibilities in the top four. The exception to the rule: Bowen Byram sticks out here, but anyone who remembers the 2022 playoffs knows how much of an offensive force he was. He stepped up after Samuel Girard's injury, looking like a future offensive force from the back end. Byram was one of Colorado's most valuable players during that run, scoring nine points in 20 games while tilting the ice heavily at five-on-five. The 3.99 goals per 60 the Avalanche scored with Byram on the ice was on par with their numbers with Makar. The goal of this Cup Checklist refresh is to highlight that the shutdown defenseman is particularly key. This player type — whether he's No. 2 or 3 on the depth chart — is present on almost every Stanley Cup champion. Accounting for that is crucial in a list of roster pieces necessary to win. Niklas Hjalmarsson, Colton Parayko, Ryan McDonagh — they're key cogs to a champion. Given how strong opposing playoff teams are offensively, teams need two pairs that can handle the heat. The franchise defenseman does his part on one pair and the shutdown defenseman usually does his part on another. There are certainly instances when they man the same pair (like Toews with Makar), but spreading the wealth defensively in the top four is helpful. Keith and Hjalmarsson, Pietrangelo and Parayko, Hedman and McDonagh — you get the picture. The playoffs are loaded with some of the league's best offensive stars. Having a shutdown defender capable of stopping them in their tracks is vital. Also important is a team not stifling its own offense in the process. What's sometimes missed about the league's best shutdown defensemen is that they're not usually offensive black holes. The majority listed here are above average and Hjalmarsson, who makes up for it by being one of the best shutdown defensemen, is the only one below a minus-1.0 Offensive Rating. That small detail is usually what separates the best shutdown defenders from other regular defensive defenders lower in the lineup. Considering how often they play with a team's top two lines, being offensively capable is necessary. The average Defensive Rating of plus-4.4 is the selling point here (and anything above 2.5 is worthwhile), but the average Offensive Rating is also plus-0.9. They're not one-dimensional and that's an important distinction. Advertisement The exception to the rule: It's still a bit mystifying that the Penguins won it all in 2017 without Letang. They are the only below-average defensive team to win the Cup, and having Ron Hainsey as one of the better defensive options is a testament to that. And yet they made it work and Hainsey was a big part of that. Hainsey was one of their most used defenders and allowed just 2.02 xGA/60 in tough minutes. That was the best mark on the team alongside partner Brian Dumoulin. You know exactly who this forward is. He's not the most valuable, he's not the most dynamic, he's not the most responsible and he's not the most productive. What he often is, however, is the engine. He's the elite grinder who can play two-way hockey, forechecks hard and does the little things well. He's the guy who makes life easier for teammates — and sometimes hell for opponents. The names above make sense in that vein: Valeri Nichushkin, Brandon Saad, Sam Bennett, Chris Kunitz, Ondrej Palat, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Brown, Brad Marchand. These guys all filled a similar niche on their championship teams, providing a strong mix of offense and defense and usually adding some edge. That last part is vital, and though it's not explicitly measured by Net Rating, I do think it shows in these players' ability to drive play. It leads to a player that usually delivers over four goals of value. The exception to the rule: Before Marchand was the admirable rat king we love to hate, he was a rookie on the rise who had just put up a 20-20 campaign, still learning the defensive ropes. Marchand's defensive game in his rookie season was below average and he wasn't much of a scorer yet — but in the playoffs, he came alive. In 25 games en route to the Cup, Marchand scored 11 goals and 19 points while earning a 54 percent xG rate. The Bruins outscored opponents 19-9 with Marchand on the ice as he continued the chemistry he was building with Patrice Bergeron during the season's second half. The rest is history. When the games get tighter, depth scoring becomes critical. The average Cup champion had 6.7 above-average offensive forwards, with the majority having at least seven. That seventh forward who can deliver above-average offense is the ultimate luxury. It allows teams to spread enough offense through the top three lines. Phil Kessel is the perfect example of that as a top-six scorer in an advantageous role. Reilly Smith's 14 points in 22 playoff games in 2023 for Vegas is another. Here, strong defense isn't required — especially if the rest of the team is up to par. The best teams can get away with a one-dimensional scorer. While the average Offensive Rating for these types is plus-1.9, the average Defensive Rating is minus-0.5, with the majority below average. And given how much emphasis there is defensively elsewhere, it's an acceptable trade-off. The exception to the rule: The 2012 Kings were a defensive powerhouse. Rather than supplement that with offense down the lineup, their depth doubled down defensively. The Kings, in both 2012 and 2014, were the only team with fewer than six above-average offensive forwards. But that's OK if someone like Dwight King makes up for it defensively. His plus-1.2 Defensive Rating is the luxury here, making up for his below-average offense. Advertisement The shutdown pair is a key part of any Cup champion and the team's No. 4 generally plays an important role in locking things down. A shutdown pair is only as strong as its weakest link — it pays to have two guys a team can lean on defensively. For contenders, at least three members of the top four should be above-average defenders. Only two champions — the 2017 Penguins and 2022 Avalanche — didn't have that, but they had more than enough firepower to manage. It's even more beneficial if that trio's defense is a significant strength. Chicago having Keith, Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya is the blueprint and Oduya's value shows up clearly here. A plus-2.0 Defensive Rating is the goal, but anything above 1.0 is solid. The exception to the rule: The model wasn't a fan of Josh Manson's defensive game relative to his reputation when the Avalanche acquired him in 2022. The model was wrong: He fit perfectly. In the playoffs that season, the Avalanche gave up just 1.74 xGA/60 with Manson on the ice, a big improvement over his 2.44 rate during the season. Manson was a rock. At the very least, we're looking for an above-average third-line forward here to beef up the top nine. The Lightning looked extremely deep with Yanni Gourde manning this role, but being just an average forward is enough, as that's already above what most teams trot out on their third line. Usually strong defense is a prerequisite here, as 11 of 15 teams had an above-average Defensive Rating. But I wanted to leave some wiggle room for teams with a great top-nine forward who was more offensively inclined. That's where Gourde's status as a luxury in 2021 really shines. Yes, he was a shutdown force for the Lightning that year, but his ability to also drive offense helped. The exception to the rule: One of the reasons the Capitals were overlooked a little in 2018 was their depth. Brett Connolly, their eighth-best forward based on Net Rating, didn't grade out well relative to other top-nine staples from past champions. He played a key role in the team's championship run, scoring 1.93 points per 60, fifth on the team. His timely scoring provided a big boost and the Capitals won their minutes with Connolly on the ice — something they didn't do during the season. Advertisement Last but not least is a defensive specialist. Teams usually have their true shutdown center in the top six along with a sidekick, but it also helps to have a defensive focal point to patrol the bottom six. Marcus Kruger and Jarret Stoll are prime examples of that during the Blackhawks' and Kings' Cup runs. It's the classic checking line staple. The goal is a Defensive Rating of plus-1.0 where offense is secondary. It's an acceptable trade-off in this slot come playoff time. The exception to the rule: Lars Eller was a terrific defensive player in his prime, whether the model recognizes it or not. That season was Eller's 'worst' though, thanks to a career-worst 2.7 xGA/60 allowed that was one of the lesser marks on the Capitals. Thankfully, he locked in for the playoffs, surrendering just 2.27 xGA/60. That improvement was vital to Washington's Cup win. One last thing: How this all adds up. First, a summary of the above. Of the 15 teams here, 14 had a solid piece or better half the time and only two teams had more than one 'exception to the rule.' The last six champions have been especially strong by this rubric, with the Avalanche and Panthers hitting 'ideal' or better 69 percent of the time. While the Cup Checklist focuses on individual pieces, it's also informative to see how those pieces came together (and to account for the pieces that aren't part of the list). Here's how the last 15 Stanley Cup champions look according to their total Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Almost every team is strong at both ends of the ice; nine of 15 champions have at least a plus-20 Offensive and Defensive Rating. When it's all said and done, the final product should at least hit those benchmarks to be considered a contender. And on average, the number at both ends is even higher. As for the teams that lacked in one area, many were at least well-equipped in the other. The 2012 and 2014 Kings and the 2017 Penguins are prime examples of that. One-dimensional? Absolutely. But what a dimension it was — enough to win it all. In all, just two teams — the 2011 Bruins and 2018 Capitals — won with a Net Rating lower than plus-40. Advertisement All of this is to say that these are guidelines and benchmarks, not rules and regulations. A team doesn't have to have every single piece playing at a certain level, nor does it have to reach a certain overall rating to win. But it is telling that many champions over the past 15 years do. The best teams, the ones that have gone all the way, have mostly followed a similar script up and down the lineup. It's not impossible to win in other ways, but the path that has already been forged by others is probably worth following. It's tried and true — the Cup Checklist helps to outline it. Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockey Stat Cards (Photo of Aleksander Barkov lifting the Stanley Cup: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
New York Times
04-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL Stanley Cup 2024-25 contender checklist: Western Conference edition
The NHL trade deadline is an in-season opportunity for playoff hopefuls to accent their rosters — not completely reinvent them. What should those teams be in the market for? That's what the Stanley Cup Checklist can help outline. After looking at the Eastern Conference playoff picture, we are shifting West today. Advertisement As a quick review, the Cup Checklist was created by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn in 2020 to find common elements essential to a team's success between a decade of champions. The checklist has an average value for each element — from the 2010 Blackhawks, now updated through the 2024 Panthers — with a range of one standard deviation in each direction. The checklist uses two sets of numbers — a player's actual Game Score Value Added based on this season, and their projected value, which uses three years of data weighed for recency and adjusted for age (read more on GSVA here). All data was collected before the games on March 1, and Western Conference teams with at least 15 percent playoff odds are featured. The Cup Checklist is not the be-all and end-all. It does not account for playing style, coaching or chemistry. The expectation should not be gold checks across the board; even the best teams can't check off every box and fall below average in one area or another. The strongest teams usually make up for those gaps in other ways. There are different ways to build and analyze a contender. The Checklist is just a jumping off point for that analysis. It's a vibe check for the teams in the playoff picture today. GO DEEPER NHL Stanley Cup 2024-25 contender checklist: Eastern Conference edition Stanley Cup Checklist Legend Red X: Falls below the range entirely Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely The league-leading Jets have checks across the board this year. Winnipeg is the most complete Western Conference team; the only other team with 12 checks for their 2024-25 values is the Hurricanes. The Jets have hammered out some of last season's weaknesses, which shows on a team-wide and individual level, with numerous players exceeding their projected values. That's true at the top of the lineup with Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey and with important parts of the supporting cast like Dylan Samberg. Advertisement Still, it's easy to pinpoint their biggest area of need: center depth. Vladislav Namestnikov may be passable as a 2C, but an upgrade would elevate the team's one-two center punch. Ideally, the Jets will find someone proven in the postseason to take on that role since that has been a shortcoming for some, like Nikolaj Ehlers. That conversation has surrounded Connor Hellebuyck as well. He is one of the best goalies in the world, until the postseason. But if 4 Nations is indicative of how he truly handles high-pressure situations, then maybe his playoff struggles are due to his regular-season workload. Player placements are based on role and average time on the ice. In Dallas, this is tricky because Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston play a lot more than Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, despite the latter two being deployed as first-liners. However, the results are similar in terms of checks and balances, no matter how this group is slotted. Questions in Dallas revolve around their injured stars. The timelines for Miro Heiskanen and Tyler Seguin to return aren't clear yet. If Seguin can return and regain his form, the Stars will get a major boost up front. The team already made an addition upfront in Mikael Granlund to deepen the forward group in his absence. On the back end, Thomas Harley has been excellent. But the depth behind him (and Heiskanen when healthy) is a lot more suspect. Cody Ceci's defensive struggles are a concern, but his workload should ease when Heiskanen is back. Still, the team may want to find a bit more help on defense. There is good and bad in Minnesota. The bad is that this roster has legitimate holes, even with injured players still being featured on the checklist. The team is still without its most valuable player, Kirill Kaprizov. And the center position is a lot weaker with Joel Eriksson Ek sidelined. The good is that a lot of players have stepped up. Marco Rossi has emerged as the top-six center this team has been missing. Matt Boldy is the franchise winger this team needs behind Kaprizov. Brock Faber's numbers don't look particularly inspiring, but there is a lot more to his game than a red 'X' — he plays heavy minutes and has had to shoulder a lot with so many injuries this season. Despite the Wild's playoff standing, the real question is how much the team should invest at the deadline. Low-key moves like adding Gustav Nyquist are fine, but big swings may need to be a bit more forward-thinking for next year. GO DEEPER Wild insider: Bill Guerin on Nyquist trade, Khusnutdinov demotion and trade deadline plan The Golden Knights lineup does not have many holes when at full strength. There are two key injuries right now. Shea Theodore is an elite two-way defenseman, and luckily for the Golden Knights, he is only out week-to-week. So that should keep their defensive depth in great shape for the playoffs. Vegas has worked on building up its center depth around original misfit William Karlsson. His shutdown ability and penalty-killing help round out this roster. His timeline isn't clear yet, but he is skating. As long as he is back for the playoffs, the team should not need to swing for another center. Advertisement Instead, the focus will likely be on a winger. That's the biggest weakness. It's the one area that has suffered as Vegas built up their defensive and center depth. Brandon Saad has been a fine, low-key addition to the top nine, but based on past tendencies, the team will likely hunt for someone who is a bit more impactful. It is easy to point to goaltending as the biggest weakness for the Oilers. Stuart Skinner is not the picture of consistency. Last year, Skinner saved 0.233 goals above expected per 60 minutes of play. This season, his rate has dropped down to 0.98 per 60. The problem is that his consistency isn't just an issue from season to season but game to game. While goaltending should be on the Oilers' radar at the deadline, the most pressing needs are in front of the blue paint. Edmonton's offseason signings seemed like strong fits on paper, but few have lived up to the hype. Vasily Podkolzin is a hard-working winger for the middle six, but Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner aren't playing at the level this team needs. And that's even more glaring with both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman regressing this year. The team could use more support on defense, too. Upgrades around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should help the Oilers outscore some of their goalie issues. Reinforcements on defense should limit some of the chaos Skinner is expected to calm. The Kings' star power can't compete with a team like the Oilers, who they may be destined to face once again in Round 1. But their strength is in their depth. Between Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault, the Kings have three centers of similar value who can all handle matchup minutes. Drew Doughty's actual value isn't too concerning right now because it's based on a small sample of regular season play this year, and his projected value provides a bubble of the caliber he can reach. Behind him, Vladislav Gavrikov and Mikey Anderson have stepped up in the top four. Advertisement While the Kings have a solid core of wingers — Adrian Kempe is great, Kevin Fiala has finally gotten back on track, and Alex Laferriere has been a real bright spot — there is room for improvement here. The team should target another top-nine winger to add some pop to this group. Not only would it deepen their approach, but it would likely have a ripple effect on their centers and overall elevate this forward group. Martin Necas' value may not stack up to Mikko Rantanen's over the last three years or this season alone. But that doesn't change what a fit he has been in Colorado. He is a zone-entry machine who not only benefits from playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon but also legitimately complements him. MacKinnon's value can make up a lot of ground, but there is still a hole down the middle of the second line. Casey Mittelstadt hasn't found the form that made him such a strong fit post-deadline last season. Maybe he can turn it around now that he has more support on the wings — Necas, Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen, and a healthy Valeri Nichushkin make up a solid top-six winger core. But the team could consider an upgrade at center, or bolster their depth below the top-six. The team already has addressed their blue line with the Ryan Lindgren trade. While his value seriously declined in New York, a change in usage and systems could benefit him in Colorado. The Avs have to bet on that, since their second pair isn't perfect (or completely healthy). GO DEEPER NHL trade grades: Rangers flip pending UFA Lindgren to Avalanche in sensible deal After the Avalanche, the Western Conference playoff picture opens up. The Flames sit in the second wild card seed right now, but only have a 15 percent chance of actually making it. The roster strength has something to do with it. As currently constructed, the Flames do not look like a real playoff contender. But it isn't that worrisome with the long-term plan in mind. Calgary took a step back, moved out a lot of their NHL-caliber talent, and leaned on more up-and-coming players this season. The most noteworthy is back in net; Dustin Wolf should be on many Calder ballots this spring and could even get some recognition behind Connor Hellebuyck in the Vezina conversation. The Flames may not be a true contender, but can operate with those playoff hopes in mind. Maybe the team won't move Rasmus Andersson at the deadline. After selling last year, management can afford to look for a younger NHL-caliber center to help improve their chances now and in the future. Advertisement It has been a really tumultuous year in Vancouver. Elias Pettersson has not been playing at the level a playoff team needs from their first-line center. Conor Garland, who has the highest average ice time of their wingers, is better suited for a middle-six role. Brock Boeser, whose future is uncertain in Vancouver, isn't playing at last year's heights. And Jake DeBrusk has been streaky in his first season with the team. Issues down the middle only amplify those concerns on the wing. There have been a few bright spots, though. Quinn Hughes has been otherworldly again this season, but the team is overly reliant on him to be a game-breaker on a nightly basis. Kevin Lankinen has stepped up since Thatcher Demko's durability has been such an issue. And Filip Chytil has fit in well with the Canucks so far. Of the teams in the wild card race, the Canucks have the best odds. But this roster can only go so far as currently constructed, especially if Hughes is sidelined for any extended period. It could be in their best interest to start reloading for next year. On paper, Utah doesn't quite look playoff-caliber… not yet at least. There has been a lot of progression this season in Utah. Logan Cooley isn't the 1C of a contender's dreams just yet, but is becoming a real top-six threat. Even Barrett Hayton has gotten on track to show he has the chops to play at a high level in the NHL. Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther are a dangerous one-two punch on the wings, and some blue line additions from last summer have helped solidify this group. After years of collecting future assets in Arizona, Utah is stocked with draft picks and prospects. So this team can make some noise in the trade market — especially if the Canucks end up taking a step back. Even if Utah moves on from pending unrestricted free agents such as Nick Bjugstad, management could still pursue another top-nine center and winger to better their short- and long-term outlook. Ownership's willingness to take big swings could help this team stay in the playoff race, and the team can afford to take that risk even if it falls short. Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers. (Top photo of Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Martin Necas: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
New York Times
03-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL Stanley Cup 2024-25 contender checklist: Eastern Conference edition
A playoff hopeful can't reinvent itself at the trade deadline. Instead, it's an in-season opportunity to find missing pieces to solidify a team. Some teams have already sprung into action with early deals, giving management more runway to assess new fits and what else may be needed before the deadline. But most have yet to make a change. Advertisement What teams have holes to address? With the deadline just days away, that's what we're going to look at using the Stanley Cup Checklist. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn created the Cup Checklist in 2020 to find common elements essential to a team's success between a decade of champions. It has since been updated to include all champions from the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks to the 2024 Florida Panthers. The Checklist has an average value for each element, based on those past champs, with a range of one standard deviation in each direction. The Checklist relies on two sets of numbers: a player's actual Game Score Value Added based on this season, and their projected value, which uses three years of data weighed for recency and adjusted for age. All data was collected before the games on March 1. Since the East is still somewhat in flux, teams featured have at least 15 percent playoff odds. Something to keep in mind throughout this exercise is that the Checklist is not the be-all, end-all. It doesn't account for playing style, coaching or chemistry. Even the best teams can't check off every box, and most fall below average in one area or another. The strongest teams usually find ways to make up for it in other ways. There are a number of ways to build (and analyze) a contender. That's why the game is played and different teams surprise each year. The Checklist can be a jumping-off point for that analysis. Today, it's a vibe check for the teams in the playoff picture. Red X: Falls below the range entirely Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely One of the biggest keys to the Capitals' success is how many players have outperformed expectations. Reclamation projects Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jakob Chychrun are both successfully rebounding in Washington, and a healthy Tom Wilson is hitting his stride after a tough last season. Up-and-coming players like Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael and Rasmus Sandin have taken major steps forward, and that's helped revitalize Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson. Advertisement Dylan Strome and Ovechkin, despite having strong seasons, may not fit the mold of a Stanley Cup-caliber team on paper. But Washington has strength in numbers behind them, and while the argument could be made that those two could be swapped with Dubois and Wilson to earn this team more checkmarks, role and average ice time determined the slotting for every team. After a very active 2024 offseason, the Capitals shouldn't have to take massive swings at the deadline and will likely make more low-key moves to bolster their depth. The biggest concern for the Canes tends to be whether they have enough oomph to do damage in the postseason. Adding Mikko Rantanen should accomplish that, granted the team doesn't make any other drastic changes. While he isn't popping off the scoresheet yet, the positive signs are there, and he is a proven playoff performer. GO DEEPER Is Mikko Rantanen a bad fit in Carolina? Only if you're not paying attention Maybe most importantly, he knocks the rest of the wingers down into more fitting roles. Andrei Svechnikov hasn't proved he can be the guy, but with Rantanen and Seth Jarvis ahead of him on the depth chart, there is a bit less pressure. What may stand out here is that someone like Jordan Martinook has a gold check and Rantanen doesn't. Remember, these marks aren't apples to apples, but relative to each position and role. As solid as this team looks, there could still be room for improvement. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is passable as a 2C, but less than ideal. The goaltending isn't perfect, either. The Devils have much of the framework that a contender should strive for. They have a high-end one-two punch of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. After some early season struggles, Jacob Markstrom found his footing as the No. 1 goalie this team has craved. And the blue line has been revitalized from rebound performances and some new additions. Advertisement But one thing is missing: forward depth. Dawson Mercer's value has cratered in New Jersey after the last year-plus. He thrived in his first couple of seasons because he brought a different skill set to the top six than the Devils' stars. But he has fallen out of favor over the last year; he hasn't played well enough to stay in the top six or driven play enough to center the third line. Erik Haula and Ondrej Palat are underwhelming depth forwards, although Palat at least has some playoff pedigree to lean on in the spring. So management may want to find trade options to punch up this forward group with a new third-line center and a middle-six winger. The Maple Leafs have the star power at the top of their lineup and Auston Matthews still has another gear he can hit to take things up a notch. The real question is whether their regular-season success can translate in the playoffs. Pressure is a privilege that all stars have to find a way to push through, but the Core Four forwards can't shoulder everything — they need a stronger supporting cast. While Max Domi is serviceable, there is a reason the team is in the market for more forward depth — especially in the form of a third-line center to ease John Tavares' workload. The Maple Leafs have strength in net between Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, but there is room for improvement on defense. Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Chris Tanev (when healthy) help compensate for Morgan Rielly as a No. 1. While Rielly has trended up offensively lately, it wouldn't help to add more support, either. Matthew Tkachuk's injury status and whether he will be healthy for the playoffs are the biggest concerns in Florida. If he can return, the Panthers should have the forward chops to go on another deep run. It won't be surprising to see the team look for backup in the meantime, especially after unlocking more cap space with Tkachuk's contract on LTIR. Management has already bolstered the blue line by trading for Seth Jones. His value as a top-four defenseman looks far from inspiring, but the context of his surroundings in Chicago has to be considered. A safe assumption is that Jones will play top-four minutes, but his exact responsibilities will be determined down the stretch. Sergei Bobrovsky has only saved one goal above expected in 40 appearances with a .903 save percentage. That's why his actual value pales in comparison to his projected value. He could rebound or turn it on in the playoffs, but there is less room for error now since Spencer Knight was traded to Chicago. Advertisement The Lightning's strategy revolves around their elite core. Andrei Vasilevskiy has rebounded in a big way, with almost 23 goals saved above expected through 48 games. The return of Ryan McDonagh has helped take the burden off Victor Hedman, who is having an excellent season. Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov make a dynamic first line. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel have also become a shutdown force. However, there are clear weaknesses below those players. The Cup Checklist scratches the surface on that, because there isn't an ideal player for that last forward slot. Mitchell Chaffee doesn't stack up, and neither do Gage Goncalves, Conor Geekie, Zemgus Girgensons or Michael Eyssimont. The Lightning's stars can make up a lot of ground, but it's a tall ask to rely on two scoring lines through up to four rounds of postseason action. So the Lightning's No. 1 priority at the deadline has to be finding support for the middle six. The Blue Jackets are a surprising fixture in the playoff race thanks to some star-powered performances and player development. Zach Werenski is the Blue Jackets' engine and is making the case for consideration for the Norris and Hart Trophies. Kirill Marchenko has emerged as a true top-line caliber player up front. A healthy Sean Monahan has upped his game in Columbus, while Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov and Dante Fabbro have all progressed. Management should look for a top-nine forward to take this roster up a notch. The return of Boone Jenner is an addition of sorts — his actual value is a bit skewed due to only playing a few games — but the team has the leeway to make bigger swings, too. Unlike some contenders, the Blue Jackets have a ton of cap space, draft capital and a deep prospect pool to work with. It's important to remember how much the Red Wings have improved on both ends of the ice since Todd McLellan took over as head coach. Their dreadful start weighed down many of their core players, and it helps explain how few checkmarks there are in Detroit and how little black and gold highlights its checklist. Marco Kasper's numbers aren't a concern, considering his fit on the top line with Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin. However, veterans Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko have fallen short of their projected values. So there is room to add up front. The most obvious spot is at 3C to replace Andrew Copp, but there may be an internal option in Michael Rasmussen when he returns from injury. That could allow management to focus on the wing and maybe the most pressing area: on defense. With one of the more challenging schedules ahead, the Red Wings may want to invest in extra help. GO DEEPER What Copp's injury means for the Red Wings as trade deadline nears Like the Red Wings and Blue Jackets, the Senators are also looking to turn the corner and return to the playoff picture — and that may require deadline dealings. The pieces are finally coming together in Ottawa to form a playoff team. Core players like Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are on track, and there is a solid supporting cast in place behind them in Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Artem Zub, among others. Advertisement But this team needs to grow a bit more and stay healthy. Norris, Shane Pinto and Linus Ullmark are all back from injury — Ullmark just hasn't found his pre-injury form yet. The Senators have shown a lot of progress this year, but this team still isn't a finished product. As much as they have improved defensively, there is work to do offensively. Adding a top-nine forward could help this team better its playoff chances. Some of the Rangers' core players exceeded expectations last season, but most have taken a serious step back this year. Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad (slotted in as a top-line winger for our purposes here), and Alexis Lafrenière have struggled. So has Chris Kreider, who has been dealing with injury through much of the season. The Rangers added J.T. Miller but more recently moved out pending unrestricted free agents Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey. Reilly Smith is being held out of the lineup for roster management purposes in anticipation of a trade. New York may still technically be in the playoff picture, but with Adam Fox sidelined, the team is better served taking a step back and loading up for next season. The Bruins, like the Rangers, have at least one franchise cornerstone at each position to build around in David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman. But the strength of their roster is not contender-worthy as it stands. There are clear holes down the middle of the ice without a true top-line-caliber center or a high-end 2C to make up for it. The team's big 2024 offseason signings haven't lived up to the hype, either. Injuries have only hurt the Bruins' playoff odds. Hampus Lindholm is unlikely to return this season, and McAvoy, Brad Marchand and Trent Frederic have all been sidelined. These injuries, combined with the existing holes in the rest of their roster and a lack of depth to compensate for them, could force management into a much-needed retool. There has been little clarity on Mathew Barzal's timeline or potential return from injury, which is why he is still featured on the Checklist, unlike Lindholm in Boston and Copp in Detroit. As much as the team has defied the odds despite its injuries, Barzal is its biggest difference-maker and changes the makeup of this forward group. Without him, the gaps in the Islanders lineup are even more glaring. Advertisement The other question on Long Island revolves around Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who are all on The Athletic's trade board. Management trading any of these players will crush the team's playoff hopes and shift the focus to next year. That seems like the best path forward, but it's always possible the team will stand pat and bet on Ilya Sorokin to carry them into the postseason. Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers. (Photos of John Carlson and Mathew Barzal: Patrick Smith and Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
