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US economy seen losing as foreign tourists stay away, March arrivals already down 10%, $20 billion retail spending at risk
US economy seen losing as foreign tourists stay away, March arrivals already down 10%, $20 billion retail spending at risk

Gulf News

time05-05-2025

  • Business
  • Gulf News

US economy seen losing as foreign tourists stay away, March arrivals already down 10%, $20 billion retail spending at risk

The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated. Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion. Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty. Cancelled US vacation One of them is Curtis Allen, a Canadian videographer who cancelled an upcoming US vacation after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on his home country and suggested it should become the 51st US state. Allen and his partner have been on multiple camping trips to Oregon over the years, but this year, they will be traveling around British Columbia instead. 'We're not just staying home,' said Allen, 34. 'We're going to go spend the same money somewhere else.' Allen's hesitance doesn't stop there. He canceled his Netflix subscription and is actively avoiding American imports at the grocery store. 'Now it takes us double the time, because we're looking at where the products came from,' he said. International travelers spent a record $254 billion in the US last year, according to ITA figures. Coming into 2025, the outlook was positive: The ITA projected in early March that the US would welcome 77 million visitors this year, just shy of the 2019 record, before pushing to a new high in 2026. But those estimates came out just before stories of harsh detentions at US airports, ensnaring travelers from countries like France and Germany, started making headlines. Major public institutions in Canada, including a pension management firm and a leading hospital, are now advising staff against travelling to the US. $20 billion retail spending from tourists Almost $20 billion in retail spending from international tourists in the US may be at risk, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. Early signs of a sharp pullback are already showing up. Airfares, hotel rates and car rental costs fell in March, according to a monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report on consumer prices published April 10. Economists at Goldman Sachs and HSBC Holdings Plc said lower demand, including from foreign travelers, probably played a role. Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, noted the decline in hotel rates was driven by an almost 11% drop in the Northeast in particular, possibly a result of fewer Canadians traveling there. 'Given what we know about how much Canadian travel has fallen off, that's potentially a bit worrying for that region,' Sharif said. Summer Season The timing is 'very interesting' for Rainbow Air Helicopter Tours in Niagara Falls — which just invested $25 million in a new building, an enhanced fleet and a virtual reality attraction ahead of the busy summer season — said Patrick Keyes, the firm's sales and marketing manager. 'We are waiting to see the fallout,' he said. Canadian flight reservations to the US are down 70% through September versus the same period last year, according to a report by OAG Aviation Worldwide. Meanwhile US summer bookings are also down 25% among European tourists at Accor SA hotels — which Chief Executive Officer Sébastien Bazin said could be attributed to border detentions creating a 'bad buzz' and diverting tourists to other destinations. 'US tariff announcements and a more aggressive stance toward historical allies have hurt global opinions about the US,' Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Megan Peters said in a March 31 report. 'This headwind provides another reason — in addition to the more direct negative impacts of tariffs and drag on exports from foreign retaliation that are already built into our US GDP forecast — why US GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025,' they said. Despite the worsening outlook, Oregon's tourism commission — known as Travel Oregon — is continuing efforts to attract foreign visitors, said CEO Todd Davidson. His team just came back from a trip to pitch the state at an adventure tourism conference in Vancouver, and in the coming weeks they will be hosting sales and marketing partners from places like the UK, India and Brazil. At the same time, they're also contemplating whether the commission will need to shift its strategy more toward domestic visitors as the situation unfolds. 'Oregon is not and will not take its eye off those international markets,' Davidson said. 'We will be here when our international visitors feel that they are ready to return.'

Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire
Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire

Yahoo

time04-05-2025

  • Sport
  • Yahoo

Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire

Carrick Rangers striker Curtis Allen and Portadown defender Ross Redman have both called time on their football careers. Allen, 37, brings the curtain down on a career that has included two spells with Coleraine as well as time at Bournemouth, Lisburn Distillery, Linfield, Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Glentoran. Advertisement The forward won the Irish Premiership title with the Blues in 2010, the League Cup with Coleraine in 2020 and the Irish Cup with Glentoran in 2015. During his six-year stay at the Glens, Allen scored 110 goals in 232 games. He took over as interim manager of Carrick earlier this season alongside Mark Surgenor following the sacking of Stuart King. Redman began his career with hometown club Portadown, winning the Championship and the League Cup with the Ports in 2009. He left in 2016 to sign for Glentoran before joining Dungannon Swifts on loan. The 36-year-old then went to Ballymena United in 2020 before returning to the Ports on a free transfer in 2023. He once again helped his side to win the Championship in his first season back at Shamrock Park before helping them to an eighth-place finish in the Irish Premiership this year.

Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire
Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire

BBC News

time04-05-2025

  • Sport
  • BBC News

Carrick's Allen and Portadown's Redman retire

Carrick Rangers striker Curtis Allen and Portadown defender Ross Redman have both called time on their football 37, brings the curtain down on a career that has included two spells with Coleraine as well as time at Bournemouth, Lisburn Distillery, Linfield, Inverness Caledonian Thistle and forward won the Irish Premiership title with the Blues in 2010, the League Cup with Coleraine in 2020 and the Irish Cup with Glentoran in his six-year stay at the Glens, Allen scored 110 goals in 232 took over as interim manager of Carrick earlier this season alongside Mark Surgenor following the sacking of Stuart began his career with hometown club Portadown, winning the Championship and the League Cup with the Ports in left in 2016 to sign for Glentoran before joining Dungannon Swifts on 36-year-old then went to Ballymena United in 2020 before returning to the Ports on a free transfer in once again helped his side to win the Championship in his first season back at Shamrock Park before helping them to an eighth-place finish in the Irish Premiership this year.

US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away
US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away

Yahoo

time15-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away

(Bloomberg) — The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated. Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion. Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty. One of them is Curtis Allen, a Canadian videographer who canceled an upcoming US vacation after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on his home country and suggested it should become the 51st US state. Allen and his partner have been on multiple camping trips to Oregon over the years, but this year, they will be traveling around British Columbia instead. 'We're not just staying home,' said Allen, 34. 'We're going to go spend the same money somewhere else.' Allen's hesitance doesn't stop there. He canceled his Netflix subscription and is actively avoiding American imports at the grocery store. 'Now it takes us double the time, because we're looking at where the products came from,' he said. International travelers spent a record $254 billion in the US last year, according to ITA figures. Coming into 2025, the outlook was positive: The ITA projected in early March that the US would welcome 77 million visitors this year, just shy of the 2019 record, before pushing to a new high in 2026. But those estimates came out just before stories of harsh detentions at US airports, ensnaring travelers from countries like France and Germany, started making headlines. Major public institutions in Canada, including a pension management firm and a leading hospital, are now advising staff against traveling to the US. Almost $20 billion in retail spending from international tourists in the US may be at risk, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. Early signs of a sharp pullback are already showing up. Airfares, hotel rates and car rental costs fell in March, according to a monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report on consumer prices published April 10. Economists at Goldman Sachs and HSBC Holdings Plc said lower demand, including from foreign travelers, probably played a role. Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, noted the decline in hotel rates was driven by an almost 11% drop in the Northeast in particular, possibly a result of fewer Canadians traveling there. 'Given what we know about how much Canadian travel has fallen off, that's potentially a bit worrying for that region,' Sharif said. The timing is 'very interesting' for Rainbow Air Helicopter Tours in Niagara Falls — which just invested $25 million in a new building, an enhanced fleet and a virtual reality attraction ahead of the busy summer season — said Patrick Keyes, the firm's sales and marketing manager. 'We are waiting to see the fallout,' he said. Canadian flight reservations to the US are down 70% through September versus the same period last year, according to a report by OAG Aviation Worldwide. Meanwhile US summer bookings are also down 25% among European tourists at Accor SA hotels — which Chief Executive Officer Sébastien Bazin said could be attributed to border detentions creating a 'bad buzz' and diverting tourists to other destinations. 'US tariff announcements and a more aggressive stance toward historical allies have hurt global opinions about the US,' Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Megan Peters said in a March 31 report. 'This headwind provides another reason — in addition to the more direct negative impacts of tariffs and drag on exports from foreign retaliation that are already built into our US GDP forecast — why US GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025,' they said. Despite the worsening outlook, Oregon's tourism commission — known as Travel Oregon — is continuing efforts to attract foreign visitors, said CEO Todd Davidson. His team just came back from a trip to pitch the state at an adventure tourism conference in Vancouver, and in the coming weeks they will be hosting sales and marketing partners from places like the UK, India and Brazil. At the same time, they're also contemplating whether the commission will need to shift its strategy more toward domestic visitors as the situation unfolds. 'Oregon is not and will not take its eye off those international markets,' Davidson said. 'We will be here when our international visitors feel that they are ready to return.' (Updates to add Canada executives advising against US travel in ninth paragraph.) ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Foreign Tourists Are Boycotting the U.S.--And It's Bleeding $90 Billion from the Economy
Foreign Tourists Are Boycotting the U.S.--And It's Bleeding $90 Billion from the Economy

Yahoo

time15-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Foreign Tourists Are Boycotting the U.S.--And It's Bleeding $90 Billion from the Economy

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is sounding the alarm on an overlooked but mounting economic threat: the collapse of inbound foreign tourism. According to the latest data, international arrivals by air fell nearly 10% in March versus last year. Behind the drop? A cocktail of aggressive US tariffs, rising geopolitical tensions, and an increasingly hostile border experience. Goldman estimates the pullback in travel and foreign consumer boycotts could carve out as much as $90 billionaround 0.3% of US GDPin 2025. That would mark one of the steepest hits from travel sentiment since the pandemic rebound. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with GS. The cracks are already showing. Canadian flight bookings to the US are down a staggering 70% through September. Accor SA reports a 25% drop in summer reservations from European tourists, citing negative headlines about US airport detentions. Hotel rates in the Northeast have plunged 11%, a direct signal that international demand is evaporating fast. Even small businesseslike a Niagara Falls helicopter tour company that just poured $25 million into new infrastructureare now anxiously watching the fallout. Add in weaker airfare and car rental prices, and the demand downturn looks real, not just seasonal noise. The shift isn't just financialit's emotional. Canadians, historically the largest group of foreign visitors to the US, are increasingly choosing to stay home or spend abroad elsewhere. One former Oregon regular, Curtis Allen, summed it up best: We're not just staying homewe're spending our money somewhere else. He's not only canceling vacations, but boycotting American imports altogether. And if that sentiment scales up globally, the US could be staring down a long, slow bleed in one of its most overlooked economic engines: tourism dollars. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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