Latest news with #CésarSerra
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
IMF backs Oman's reforms, warns of global risks
A recent visit by a staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), held in Muscat from May 21 to 29, 2025, has provided a timely and comprehensive assessment of Oman's macroeconomic trajectory. Led by César Serra, the mission engaged with national authorities on key developments, fiscal performance, structural reforms and medium-term outlooks. The statement issued at the end of the visit presents a cautiously optimistic picture of Oman's economy — one marked by resilience, reform and prudent policymaking — while also highlighting emerging risks that require close attention. According to the IMF, Oman's real GDP expanded by 1.7 per cent in 2024, up from 1.2 per cent the previous year. This growth was achieved despite reduced hydrocarbon output, in line with Opec+ production curbs. The performance reflects strong non-oil sector activity — especially in manufacturing, logistics, tourism and services — all core areas targeted under Oman Vision 2040's diversification agenda. Looking ahead, GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.4 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, supported by the expected phase-out of production limits and sustained investment in strategic sectors. Inflation remains well contained, registering 0.9 per cent year-on-year during January–April 2025, providing a stable environment for consumers and investors alike. The IMF notes that Oman's fiscal surplus stood at 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, although this figure was slightly lower than earlier estimates due to accelerated public investment in infrastructure, health, education and water services. In parallel, Energy Development Oman (EDO) redirected a portion of its dividend payments to long-term investment, further contributing to the temporary narrowing of fiscal space. Over the short term, the fiscal surplus is projected to moderate to an average of 0.5 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, before recovering in the medium term as oil output increases and reform measures take hold. Importantly, Oman continues to make significant progress in public debt reduction. Central government debt declined to 35.5 per cent of GDP in 2024, down from 37.5 per cent the previous year. State-owned enterprise (SOE) debt also fell to approximately 31 per cent of GDP, reflecting continued progress on governance and operational reform under the Oman Investment Authority. Oman's current account posted a surplus of 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 but is expected to shift into a moderate deficit of around 2 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, due to softer oil prices and more subdued non-oil export growth. Nonetheless, the IMF expects a return to surplus thereafter, contingent on higher oil production and stronger trade performance. On the financial front, the banking sector remains robust. Omani banks are well-capitalised, profitable, and maintain strong liquidity positions. The sector continues to support private sector credit growth, backed by an expanding deposit base and a positive net foreign asset position. The IMF report underscores that structural reforms are advancing across multiple fronts. The Tax Authority is implementing its Tax Administration Modernisation Programme, the Central Bank of Oman is refining its liquidity management framework, and efforts are underway to expand access to finance through a well-structured financial development agenda. One of the most significant milestones is the operational launch of Future Fund Oman, a new investment platform designed to mobilise private capital into key economic sectors. Several projects have already been approved, and substantial co-investment from the private sector has been secured. Simultaneously, Oman is intensifying its efforts in renewable energy, particularly green hydrogen. These initiatives are vital for future energy security, export diversification and industrial development. The finalisation of the 11th Five-Year Development Plan (2026–2030) — framed under the objectives of Vision 2040 — is expected to play a critical role in consolidating these reform gains and accelerating economic diversification. Despite a broadly favourable outlook, the IMF warns of downside risks. Geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions and prolonged weakness in oil prices could all undermine fiscal and external stability. Furthermore, elevated global interest rates could raise borrowing costs and dampen private investment, particularly if hydrocarbon revenues soften. To mitigate these risks, the IMF recommends that Oman sustain its current reform momentum, enhance private sector participation and continue building fiscal buffers. Policy consistency and timely implementation will be essential to navigating this uncertain landscape. The IMF's mission affirms that Oman has made tangible progress in strengthening its economic fundamentals. Growth is returning, inflation is low, debt is declining and reforms are deepening. The economy is now better positioned to respond to external shocks and capitalise on long-term opportunities. As Oman prepares to launch its next development cycle, the focus must remain on execution. Maintaining investor confidence, advancing green energy initiatives and ensuring inclusive growth will be critical to achieving Vision 2040's long-term goals. Oman's economic strategy is evolving with purpose. The challenge now is to maintain momentum, institutionalise reform, and drive the transition from a hydrocarbon-dependent model to a resilient, diversified and sustainable economy. 2022 © All right reserved for Oman Establishment for Press, Publication and Advertising (OEPPA) Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Observer
3 days ago
- Business
- Observer
IMF backs Oman's reforms, warns of global risks
A recent visit by a staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), held in Muscat from May 21 to 29, 2025, has provided a timely and comprehensive assessment of Oman's macroeconomic trajectory. Led by César Serra, the mission engaged with national authorities on key developments, fiscal performance, structural reforms and medium-term outlooks. The statement issued at the end of the visit presents a cautiously optimistic picture of Oman's economy — one marked by resilience, reform and prudent policymaking — while also highlighting emerging risks that require close attention. According to the IMF, Oman's real GDP expanded by 1.7 per cent in 2024, up from 1.2 per cent the previous year. This growth was achieved despite reduced hydrocarbon output, in line with Opec+ production curbs. The performance reflects strong non-oil sector activity — especially in manufacturing, logistics, tourism and services — all core areas targeted under Oman Vision 2040's diversification agenda. Looking ahead, GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.4 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, supported by the expected phase-out of production limits and sustained investment in strategic sectors. Inflation remains well contained, registering 0.9 per cent year-on-year during January–April 2025, providing a stable environment for consumers and investors alike. The IMF notes that Oman's fiscal surplus stood at 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, although this figure was slightly lower than earlier estimates due to accelerated public investment in infrastructure, health, education and water services. In parallel, Energy Development Oman (EDO) redirected a portion of its dividend payments to long-term investment, further contributing to the temporary narrowing of fiscal space. Over the short term, the fiscal surplus is projected to moderate to an average of 0.5 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, before recovering in the medium term as oil output increases and reform measures take hold. Importantly, Oman continues to make significant progress in public debt reduction. Central government debt declined to 35.5 per cent of GDP in 2024, down from 37.5 per cent the previous year. State-owned enterprise (SOE) debt also fell to approximately 31 per cent of GDP, reflecting continued progress on governance and operational reform under the Oman Investment Authority. Oman's current account posted a surplus of 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 but is expected to shift into a moderate deficit of around 2 per cent of GDP during 2025–2026, due to softer oil prices and more subdued non-oil export growth. Nonetheless, the IMF expects a return to surplus thereafter, contingent on higher oil production and stronger trade performance. On the financial front, the banking sector remains robust. Omani banks are well-capitalised, profitable, and maintain strong liquidity positions. The sector continues to support private sector credit growth, backed by an expanding deposit base and a positive net foreign asset position. The IMF report underscores that structural reforms are advancing across multiple fronts. The Tax Authority is implementing its Tax Administration Modernisation Programme, the Central Bank of Oman is refining its liquidity management framework, and efforts are underway to expand access to finance through a well-structured financial development agenda. One of the most significant milestones is the operational launch of Future Fund Oman, a new investment platform designed to mobilise private capital into key economic sectors. Several projects have already been approved, and substantial co-investment from the private sector has been secured. Simultaneously, Oman is intensifying its efforts in renewable energy, particularly green hydrogen. These initiatives are vital for future energy security, export diversification and industrial development. The finalisation of the 11th Five-Year Development Plan (2026–2030) — framed under the objectives of Vision 2040 — is expected to play a critical role in consolidating these reform gains and accelerating economic diversification. Despite a broadly favourable outlook, the IMF warns of downside risks. Geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions and prolonged weakness in oil prices could all undermine fiscal and external stability. Furthermore, elevated global interest rates could raise borrowing costs and dampen private investment, particularly if hydrocarbon revenues soften. To mitigate these risks, the IMF recommends that Oman sustain its current reform momentum, enhance private sector participation and continue building fiscal buffers. Policy consistency and timely implementation will be essential to navigating this uncertain landscape. The IMF's mission affirms that Oman has made tangible progress in strengthening its economic fundamentals. Growth is returning, inflation is low, debt is declining and reforms are deepening. The economy is now better positioned to respond to external shocks and capitalise on long-term opportunities. As Oman prepares to launch its next development cycle, the focus must remain on execution. Maintaining investor confidence, advancing green energy initiatives and ensuring inclusive growth will be critical to achieving Vision 2040's long-term goals. Oman's economic strategy is evolving with purpose. The challenge now is to maintain momentum, institutionalise reform, and drive the transition from a hydrocarbon-dependent model to a resilient, diversified and sustainable economy.
Zawya
6 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
IMF commends ‘strong momentum' of structural reforms in Oman
Muscat – International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Oman for its ongoing implementation of structural reforms and continued economic growth, despite a contraction in hydrocarbon output resulting from OPEC+ oil production cuts. An IMF staff team, led by César Serra, visited Muscat from May 21 to 29 to review economic and financial developments, assess outlook and discuss the country's policy priorities. 'The momentum of structural reforms remains strong, supporting Oman's ability to navigate a challenging external environment and accelerate economic diversification,' Serra said in a statement released at the end of the IMF mission. IMF noted that Oman's economy continues to expand, driven by sustained investment in logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy and tourism, while inflation remains low. 'Despite a contraction in hydrocarbon output due to ongoing OPEC+ oil production cuts, real GDP growth strengthened to 1.7% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023, supported by robust non-hydrocarbon activity, particularly in manufacturing and services,' Serra said. According to IMF, Oman's economy is expected to expand at a faster pace over the medium term, with overall GDP growth projected at 2.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. 'This improved performance is expected to be driven by the gradual phasing out of OPEC+ production limits and continued strong non-hydrocarbon growth, underpinned by sustained investments in key sectors,' Serra said. However, he added that lower oil prices are likely to weigh on Oman's fiscal and external positions. 'Following a fiscal surplus of 3.3% of GDP in 2024, the surplus is projected to narrow to an average of 0.5% of GDP during 2025–2026, before improving over the medium term. This recovery will be supported by resumption of oil production and continuation of fiscal reforms.' IMF acknowledged further reductions in Oman's public debt, which declined to 35.5% of GDP in 2024, down from 37.5% in 2023, as the government continued to allocate part of its fiscal surplus towards debt repayment. State-owned enterprise (SOE) debt was also reduced to around 31% of GDP, supported by steady progress on the SOE reform agenda led by Oman Investment Authority. 'Structural reforms are progressing well,' Serra said. 'Oman Tax Authority is making steady progress with its Tax Administration Modernisation Programme, Central Bank of Oman is further refining its liquidity management framework and the financial sector reform agenda continues with several initiatives aimed at expanding access to finance.' He noted that SOE reforms are yielding tangible improvements in governance, profitability and risk management. Limited impact of global trade tensions IMF expects the direct impact of global trade tensions on Oman to be limited. However, lower oil prices and the risk of slower growth among key trading partners may weigh on the economic outlook. 'Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. While the direct effects of global trade tensions are likely to be limited – given Oman's modest exports to the United States – indirect effects could be more pronounced. On the upside, accelerated reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 would strengthen the country's outlook,' Serra said. Commenting on the banking sector, he added, 'It remains sound, supported by strong asset quality, healthy capital and liquidity buffers, and sustained profitability. Banks maintain a positive net foreign asset position, while private sector credit growth remains strong, supported by an expanding deposit base.' © Apex Press and Publishing Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Muscat Daily
6 days ago
- Business
- Muscat Daily
IMF commends ‘strong momentum' of structural reforms in Oman
Muscat – International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Oman for its ongoing implementation of structural reforms and continued economic growth, despite a contraction in hydrocarbon output resulting from OPEC+ oil production cuts. An IMF staff team, led by César Serra, visited Muscat from May 21 to 29 to review economic and financial developments, assess outlook and discuss the country's policy priorities. 'The momentum of structural reforms remains strong, supporting Oman's ability to navigate a challenging external environment and accelerate economic diversification,' Serra said in a statement released at the end of the IMF mission. IMF noted that Oman's economy continues to expand, driven by sustained investment in logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy and tourism, while inflation remains low. 'Despite a contraction in hydrocarbon output due to ongoing OPEC+ oil production cuts, real GDP growth strengthened to 1.7% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023, supported by robust non-hydrocarbon activity, particularly in manufacturing and services,' Serra said. According to IMF, Oman's economy is expected to expand at a faster pace over the medium term, with overall GDP growth projected at 2.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. 'This improved performance is expected to be driven by the gradual phasing out of OPEC+ production limits and continued strong non-hydrocarbon growth, underpinned by sustained investments in key sectors,' Serra said. However, he added that lower oil prices are likely to weigh on Oman's fiscal and external positions. 'Following a fiscal surplus of 3.3% of GDP in 2024, the surplus is projected to narrow to an average of 0.5% of GDP during 2025–2026, before improving over the medium term. This recovery will be supported by resumption of oil production and continuation of fiscal reforms.' IMF acknowledged further reductions in Oman's public debt, which declined to 35.5% of GDP in 2024, down from 37.5% in 2023, as the government continued to allocate part of its fiscal surplus towards debt repayment. State-owned enterprise (SOE) debt was also reduced to around 31% of GDP, supported by steady progress on the SOE reform agenda led by Oman Investment Authority. 'Structural reforms are progressing well,' Serra said. 'Oman Tax Authority is making steady progress with its Tax Administration Modernisation Programme, Central Bank of Oman is further refining its liquidity management framework and the financial sector reform agenda continues with several initiatives aimed at expanding access to finance.' He noted that SOE reforms are yielding tangible improvements in governance, profitability and risk management. Limited impact of global trade tensions IMF expects the direct impact of global trade tensions on Oman to be limited. However, lower oil prices and the risk of slower growth among key trading partners may weigh on the economic outlook. 'Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. While the direct effects of global trade tensions are likely to be limited – given Oman's modest exports to the United States – indirect effects could be more pronounced. On the upside, accelerated reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 would strengthen the country's outlook,' Serra said. Commenting on the banking sector, he added, 'It remains sound, supported by strong asset quality, healthy capital and liquidity buffers, and sustained profitability. Banks maintain a positive net foreign asset position, while private sector credit growth remains strong, supported by an expanding deposit base.'
