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Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Gov. Tina Kotek appears to have a clear path through next election
Gov. Tina Kotek claims victory in 2022. Columnist Randy Stapilus predicts Kotek has a straightforward path to reelection given current political conditions. (Photo by Jordan Gale/Oregon Capital Chronicle) Candidate filing for Oregon state offices won't begin until Sept. 11, but low-level rumbles have circulated for months about a prospectively competitive race for governor and that Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek is politically vulnerable. The idea is exaggerated. While conditions may change, the reality now is that she's strongly positioned for reelection next year to a second term. Some context is needed here. Public officials all over, from presidents down to the local level, have seen trust and popularity fall hard in recent years, but rates of reelection to offices high and low have not much dropped. In Oregon, this is an old story. It's true that Kotek's popularity has been low even by national standards. An August 2024 Morning Consult poll rated her (along with Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee) as one of the two least popular governors in the nation, a finding in line with other surveys. A poll conducted in mid-March from DHM Research of the (Democratic-leaning) Portland metro area showed Kotek with a 42% favorable and 40% unfavorable rating, not a drastic change from earlier polls, and traditionally not a good place for a candidate for major office. Some of this may come from headlines over staff turnover or frustration in completing some key priorities. You also could say there was nothing unusual about this. In 2022, a FiveThirtyEight analysis ranked then-Gov. Kate Brown second from the bottom. Beaver State governors have experienced low levels of popularity for decades. The arrival of the Trump administration does, however, seem to have improved Oregonians' take on Kotek: For many voters in this blue state, after watching high-speed chaotic news out of D.C., impressions of Oregon and Portland are looking better. Skeptics also could point out that Kotek's win in 2022 was slender, with a margin of only 3.4% and well short of an outright majority. Such has been the grist for talk of a difficult Kotek re-election effort (which, of course, doesn't formally exist yet and won't for months at least, assuming she does run again). She's still the odds-on favorite. Why? You could look at the track record of Oregon governors running for reelection, few of whom have lost. The last was Democrat Robert Straub in 1978, and before that Democrat Robert Holmes in 1958. (Both faced politically strong Republican challengers, Vic Atiyeh and Mark Hatfield, respectively.) Incumbent statewide office holders in Oregon rarely lose reelection. But more than that, consider the prospects for the two elections between now and a second Kotek term. The Democratic primary is set for May 2026, and Kotek seems well-positioned for it. In 2022, she defeated Tobias Read, now secretary of state and then state treasurer, who has won three other recent statewide elections by strong margins. Kotek won in considerable part with the help of core organizational elements of the Oregon Democratic Party, including labor, environmental and other groups. There's been no indication she's lost any significant support from those groups since, and no reason to think her fundraising won't be at least adequate. Nor is there any clear evidence — though we're still early in the cycle — of a credible challenger. Read, settling in for a first term as secretary of state, would be unlikely to run, and the new Oregon attorney general and treasurer would be improbable contenders as well. None would be well positioned for it in 2026, even if they were strongly motivated to take on Kotek, which they may not be. So who in the Democratic Party would be positioned to take on an incumbent governor who has solid support from the party structure? No one, really. At the moment she seems likely to draw no more than minor in-party opposition. The general election picture looks even clearer. Republicans in 2022 made a serious effort to nominate a relatively broadly acceptable candidate, Christine Drazan (a former legislator now back in the legislature). They fell short, albeit not by a lot. Who is the Republican who could win a Republican primary and run much more powerfully than Drazan did? No names come to mind. In 2026, Oregon voters are likely to be more ramped up than they were then — against Republican President Donald Trump. Oregon Democrats may be notably motivated to cast their ballots, and in a straight party matchup, in this decade, the Democrat is likely to win. How does someone other than Kotek manage to win both primary (in either party) and general election for governor? Not easily, that's for sure. Again, conditions can change. But the path ahead for Oregon's top office seems clear for now. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Survey shows decline in Portland-area voters with negative views of city
PORTLAND, Ore. () — New data show a decline in Portland-area voters who believed the region was on the 'wrong track' as of late 2024. From Dec. 12 to Dec. 20, around 700 voters from Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties responded to the latest economic survey from Portland Metro Chamber and DHM Research. City of Portland workers vote to strike if agreement isn't reached According to the results, 29% of tri-county residents believe the metro is headed in the 'right direction' while 38% of participants said it is on the 'wrong track.' This is a decrease from 2023, when 51% of respondents held negative views of the area. The report highlighted that Multnomah County voters were most likely to say their area is off on the wrong track. Although there is still a higher share of residents sharing these views, researchers noted the results could be interpreted differently. 'I think if I were to look at the most positive way, we're working our way out of the hole that we were in a couple years ago,' DHM Research Senior Vice President John Horvick said during a media briefing. 'If we look at the historic numbers, we have the potential within our community to get back to a place where most people feel positive.' The survey additionally asked respondents to identify the region's biggest issues. About 35% of participants named homelessness, while affordable housing took the second-place spot at 18%. Around 12% of voters mentioned safety, crime and a lack of police presence as well. When asked what their top concerns were, 65% of voters answered 'homelessness' once again — compared to 71% in the 2023 report. Portland's two-time 'Top Chef' finalist will return for show's upcoming season Other top areas of concern last year were cost of living, affordable housing, drug use and addiction and K-12 education. The survey also called on voters to weigh in on the central city, specifically. The percentage of Portland residents who had visited the downtown area within a month increased from 69% in 2023 to 76% last year. There was also a year-over-year increase in other tri-county residents who visited downtown, from 45% to 57%. Of those who stopped by the central city last year, 33% reported that it had gotten worse when compared to 2023. About 31% believed Downtown Portland 'stayed the same,' while 29% said it had improved. Results showed that 55% of visitors felt unsafe in the city during the day, but that number was previously 20% higher. 'We don't want to gloss over, though, that there are some first signs of.. the public seeing progress in this area,' Portland Metro Chamber's Executive Vice President of Public Affairs Jon Isaacs said, mentioning the efforts of organizations like Downtown Portland Clean and Safe and the Enhanced Service District. 'We've had a hyper-focus the last five years on restoring livability, getting the city cleaner… improving public safety, and then obviously with the real clear focus on downtown.' Portland police chief says bureau 'does not engage' in immigration enforcement amid federal crackdown Nearly a quarter of visitors said they came downtown for business or work. Others told researchers they visited for activities like dining, live entertainment or shopping. Those who don't visit downtown as often cited open-air drug use, homelessness and crime as top concerns. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
