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Time of India
30-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price forecast: Why did gold fall below $3,300 and what Trump's new China tariffs and upcoming US jobs data mean for gold's next big move
Gold price (XAU/USD) held near its session low on Wednesday, struggling to attract buyers as easing US-China trade tensions and stronger dollar demand weighed on the yellow metal. At the time of writing, gold was trading around $3,315, having dipped over 1% earlier in the European session. The precious metal is under pressure for a second straight day, driven by reduced safe-haven demand and firming expectations around key US economic reports. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack PM Modi-led 'Super Cabinet' reviews J&K security arrangements Pakistan's General Asim Munir is itching for a fight. Are his soldiers willing? India planning to launch military strike against Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours, claims Pak minister Why is gold falling even as inflation worries linger? The drop in gold price comes at a time when market risk sentiment is improving. One of the biggest drivers of this shift is the easing of trade tensions between the US and several major trading partners. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing tariffs on foreign auto parts, granting carmakers a two-year window to raise domestic sourcing. This move, coupled with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noting 'very good' offers from trade partners, has sparked optimism that major trade conflicts could be cooling down. That optimism has weakened demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. According to LKP Securities' Jateen Trivedi, expectations of a US-China trade deal and a possible peace framework between Russia and Ukraine have also played a role in dragging down gold prices. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened for the second consecutive day. The DXY Index, which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, gained ground, especially against the Japanese Yen, rising 0.31%. This stronger dollar environment puts additional pressure on gold, which is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. What's keeping gold above $3,260 despite the sell-off? While gold is struggling to stay above the $3,300 mark, strong technical support remains. The $3,265–$3,260 zone represents a key support area based on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from the mid-$2,900s. If the price breaks below this support, we could see a steeper drop towards $3,225 and possibly even $3,200, which marks the 50% retracement level. Live Events On the upside, bulls face resistance at $3,328, which aligns with the Asian session high. Above that, the next levels to watch are $3,348–$3,353, followed by a tougher supply zone near $3,366–$3,368. A move past these zones could bring gold back to $3,400, with more room to rise if momentum builds. Which US data could move gold prices this week? The next big test for gold comes with a series of high-impact US economic reports. Markets are closely watching: ADP private-sector employment data Q1 Advance GDP March PCE Price Index Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls According to economists, the US economy likely grew at an annualized pace of just 0.4% in Q1 2025, far slower than the 2.4% seen in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the monthly Core PCE—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—is expected to drop to 0.1% from 0.4%, while the headline figure is forecasted to fall to 0%, down from 0.3%. Disappointing figures could renew expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon resume cutting interest rates. Already, weaker data from the JOLTS report (job openings fell to 7.19 million from 7.48 million) and the sharp drop in Consumer Confidence to 86.0 in April — a five-year low — have fueled dovish Fed bets. If upcoming data misses forecasts, the USD may retreat, and gold could find fresh support. What could move gold prices next? Key US events to watch this week Wednesday : ADP Employment Change (private sector jobs) Q1 GDP (preliminary) – Forecast: +0.4% (down from Q4 2024's +2.4% ) PCE Inflation Data – Expected Core PCE: 0.1% (vs 0.4% prior); Headline: 0.0% (vs 0.3%) Friday : US Nonfarm Payrolls (April) – Forecast: +130,000 jobs , Unemployment Rate: 4.2% What do investors need to watch next in the gold market? With gold hovering between critical technical levels and the market flush with key data, volatility could spike soon. The Daily Pivot Point at $3,322 is the first level bulls need to reclaim. For a breakout to the upside, gold must push through $3,344 and then $3,370, a level currently acting as a ceiling. On the downside, $3,295 is the next cushion. A drop below $3,245—the high from April 11—could signal further weakness. While safe-haven demand is cooling for now, the gold market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical shifts and Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Gold-backed ETFs saw inflows of 227 tons in Q1 2025, the highest since 2022, according to the World Gold Council, helping the metal reach record highs earlier this month. But Indian jewelry demand is slowing, with Bloomberg forecasting an 11% drop in the fiscal year ending March 2026, which could weigh on physical demand moving forward. With uncertainty still looming, especially around Fed policy and global trade, gold's path will likely be shaped by data and political headlines in the days ahead. FAQs: Q: Why is the gold price below $3,300 right now? Gold fell due to stronger dollar, trade optimism, and easing safe-haven demand. Q: What can move XAU/USD prices this week? US GDP, PCE data, and Trump's tariff order can shake gold's direction.
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Chart of the Week: Wall Street's 'Fear Gauge' Is Flashing Possible Bitcoin Bottom
It's been an exceptionally volatile week, but one measure may be signaling longer-term bullish sentiment for bitcoin. The sell-off in equities began on April 3, spurred by President Donald Trump's tariff-led uncertainties. Each day since then has been marked by sharp moves in both directions. The panic has hit both the equities and bond markets, while gold has surged to new all-time highs, and the DXY Index has broken below 100 for the first time since July 2023. In response, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX)—often called Wall Street's "fear gauge" —has surged to its highest level since last August and this is where things get interesting for bitcoin. The ratio of bitcoin to VIX has hit 1,903 currently, touching a long-term trendline that last time coincided with market volatility around the unwinding of the yen carry trade. At the time, bitcoin had reached a bottom of around $49,000. In fact, this is the fourth time this ratio has hit the trendline and then found the bottom. Previously, it touched the line in March 2020 during the peak COVID-19 crisis and initially in August 2015, both times followed by a rally in prices. If this trendline continues to serve as reliable support, it could suggest that bitcoin might have once again found a long-term bottom. Read more: Bitcoin's Recent Drawdown Proves Its More Than Just a Leveraged Tech Play
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Fourth Largest Weekly Drop in Dollar Index in Over a Decade Signals Bitcoin Bottom
The DXY Index, has experienced one of its sharpest one-week declines since 2013. The index measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies. According to Bloomberg data from Global Macro Investor, the index's one-week percentage drop has exceeded a negative four standard deviation move—a rare event that has only occurred three other times in bitcoin's (BTC) history. These previous occurrences include November 2022, when bitcoin hit its cycle low of $15,500 during the FTX collapse; March 2020, amid the covid 19 pandemic, when bitcoin briefly fell below $5,000; and the 2015 bear market, when bitcoin traded around $250. Each time the DXY Index suffered a drop larger than a -4 standard deviation, it coincided with a bitcoin bottom, followed by significant price gains. Additionally, CoinDesk research highlights that the DXY Index is currently declining at a faster rate than in President Trump's first term— a period that aligned with the 2017 bitcoin bull run. A decline in the DXY Index tends to be favourable for risk-assets, however a DXY index above 100, is still considered strong, currently at 103.8.
