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Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
U.S. Exports to China Lost To 7-Year Trump-Biden Tariffs: $160 Billion
Dan Duffy steps off his tractor earlier this year while planting soybeans on land he farms with his ... More brother near Dwight, Ill. Duffy, like many farmers, is concerned about the long-term impact tariffs may have on soybean exports to China as it looks to other countries like Brazil and Argentina, the world's largest and third-largest producers of soybeans, for a less expensive alternative. U.S. exports of soybeans are one of the "bottom 10" of U.S. exports that have not rebounded from their totals prior to the trade war's onset in 2018. More than 40 percent of the grain produced in Illinois is sold for export. The state exported about $2.4 billion worth of soybeans last year, $805 million to China. (Photo by) Seven years of tariffs on Chinese imports have led to retaliation and diminished U.S. exports to China that are conservatively worth $160 billion and as much as $201 billion, based on my analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. The analysis reveals the commodities that have failed to rebound and might be helpful to better understand how the world's second-largest economy and the United States' third-largest trade partner would respond to an escalated trade war. From 2018, when President Trump first imposed tariffs on China, through 2024, when former President Joe Biden left office, largely having left those tariffs in place, U.S. exports to China increased 10.42%. In the same time period, U.S. exports to the world increased 33.44%. If U.S. exports to China had kept pace with the 33.44% overall average, that would have resulted in an additional $159.92 billion in exports to China. U.S. exports to China grew more rapidly than the average with the world in two seven-year periods ... More prior to the seven-year trade war with China. There's good reason to believe they would have done so – or better. In the seven-year period prior to the trade war, 2010-2017, the growth in U.S. exports to China was virtually double that of the United States with the world, 41.44% growth compared to the U.S. average with the world of 21.02%. Had U.S. exports to China kept to that pace, the additional exports would have totaled $201.50 billion. I looked at the U.S. exports that fell the most and increased the most during the seven years the tariffs have been in place for clues on what to expect should the United States and China continue to escalate the trade war rather than de-escalate it or simply leave it in place. I looked at tonnage also, though those figures do not affect the trade deficit, on which the Trump administration remains sharply focused, and not only on the one with China. Before I get to those U.S. exports, it is worth noting that U.S. imports from China 'lost' to the trade war fell far more than exports in the last seven years, as much as $772.90 billion. Because of that, some might describe the decline in U.S. exports to China during the trade war, by using a term often used in wartime: 'collateral damage.' Some others would suggest that the decline is not as steep as it might appear, that the Chinese are manipulating 'country of origin' labeling. That's a supposition supported, if not proven, by increases in U.S. imports from Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and other countries corresponding to declines in specific commodities from China. But because of that steep decline in U.S. imports, at least according to official U.S. government data, China dropped from being the United States' top trade partner to No. 3 behind Mexico and Canada; dropped to second behind Mexico for U.S. imports, which it had previously dominated; and saw the U.S. deficit with China fall from about five times greater than with any other nation to just about 50% greater than that with Mexico. No doubt, China has felt the impact. Despite this, U.S. trade continued to grow, even as trade with China fell, toping a record $5.33 trillion in 2024. U.S. imports continued to rise, even as those with China faltered, topping $3.27 trillion. And the U.S. deficit with the world continued to swell, increasing six of the last eight years, topping $1.20 trillion in 2024. While it is hard to have certainty on U.S. imports from China, it is not difficult to have certainty on U.S. exports to China. U.S. soybean exports to China – which buys a majority of these U.S. exports and was an early and highly visible symbol of the trade war that began in 2018 – were down $1.12 billion in the first quarter of this year from the first quarter of 2017, before the trade war began. That 33.97% decline is more than twice the decline in overall U.S. soybean exports, 16.93%. Passenger vehicle exports to China are down 76.54% when compared to the same three months of 2017, which equates to $1.80 billion. U.S. passenger vehicles to the world are actually up 7.37%, or $948.80 million this year. Like passenger vehicles and soybeans, the other eight exports that fell the most from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of this year – a 'bottom 10' rather than a 'top 10,' if you will– all underperformed the U.S. average. Oil shipments to China are down 25.61% while U.S. exports have increased 518.64%. China is, of course, buying oil from Russia, allowing it to continue to invade Ukraine, which the United States is spending billions to defend, along with European nations. Those who recycle or consider themselves to be at least environmentally conscious might recall that during the early days of the trade war, China quit accepting scrap metal and paper. You can see that in the data. The export value of aluminum waste and scrap exported to China is down 85.93% from 2017 while U.S. exports have increased 29.61%. Paper and paperboard scrap exports are down 99.56% to China, 30.51% to the rest of the world. Scrap iron and steel exports have fallen 99.41% while exports to the world are up 28.53%. There are, of course, winners, commodities that have increased since the first quarter of 2017, which has allowed U.S. exports overall to increase 8.18%. (The increase occurred during the Biden Administration, which was equally strident in policy just less voval; the first quarter total for 2025, with Trump back in office, is the lowest figure since 2020.) Civilian aircraft and parts increased 97.88% in that time, far more than the 27.57% U.S. average with the world in that time frame. That's an increase of $2.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2017. Much of that appears to be parts rather than flight-ready jets, although the Census data is not clear. As was the case in the aviation category, China outperformed the U.S. average with six others in the top 10 as well, making it possible for overall exports to rise despite the performance of the laggards. Three are in the healthcare field: the category of vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions; medicines in individual doses, which includes a number of cardiac, diabetic and anti-depressant medications and is one of the largest such categories; and medical instruments, which can range from syringes to expensive and large imaging machines. The first, the vaccine category, is up 537.14%, compared to a U.S. increase with the world of 180.54%. The second, medicines, is up 128.01% compared to 72.72% for the United States as a whole. Finally, medical instruments rose slightly more than the national average, 36.80% to 36.65%. All of the above can be loosely construed to contain advanced technology. With the computer chip category, there would be no doubt. Those U.S. exports toChina have increased 143.02% compared to the U.S. average of 47.06%. The category that includes LNG and a broad plastics category both increased, 147.91% and 95.13%, respectively, but the U.S. averages increased more, 271.18% and 110.19%, respectively. Lastly, at first glance, the Chinese seem not to have a beef with U.S. beef, which is delivered frozen, given the distance traveled. That category has increased 1.9 million percent while the U.S. average with the world is an 88.14% increase. What accounts for the massive percentage gain? The total in the first quarter of 2017 was a paltry $15,232. Bottom line: The trade war with China, now in its eighth year and swerving back and forth between escalation and de-escalation, hit Chinese imports hard but did not lower the U.S. trade deficit and harmed U.S. exports – providing something of a road map going forward.
The Star
29-04-2025
- Business
- The Star
Philippines aims to lower US tariff to zero during talks
Dan Duffy (R) and Mark German load seed into a planter while planting a soybean field on April 28, 2025 near Dwight, Illinois. The Philippines plans to boost imports of US agricultural goods including soybeans and frozen meat to get a lower tariff rate. - AFP MANILA: The Philippines will seek to bring down its US tariff rate to zero from the 17 per cent earlier announced by President Donald Trump during talks with officials in Washington, the South-East Asian nation's trade chief said. "The expectation is we hope to get what's best for us and the aim is to really lower the tariff so that we have a trade edge,' Philippines Trade Secretary Cristina Roque told reporters Monday (April 28). Roque is set to meet with American commerce and trade officials in the US this week. The Philippines has offered to purchase more farm products from the US ahead of the talks, similar to efforts by other South-East Asian nations. While the US levy on Philippine goods is much lower compared with its Asian neighbours like 36 per cent for Thailand and 46 per cent for Vietnam, Manila is hoping to secure a better deal with the US - a longtime ally - during a 90-day window in which Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs. Roque has said the Philippines plans to boost imports of US agricultural goods including soybeans and frozen meat to get a lower tariff rate. The government is also eyeing more shipments of semiconductors, coconut and mango products to the US. "They might have other asks from us that we will only know when we get there,' Roque said. US trade with the Philippines totaled around US$23.5 billion in 2024, with Washington recording a deficit of US$4.9 billion with Manila, according to US government data. That compares with a deficit of US$45.6 billion with Thailand and US$123.5 billion with Vietnam. - Bloomberg
Associated Press
28-01-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Pittsburgh Water Approves Neighborhood Lead Pipe Replacement Contract Requiring SWORDFISH
First In The Nation Construction Specification Requires Electrical Resistance Testing for Lead Pipe Identification, Prior to Replacement '"We congratulate Wilson Excavating for winning this competitive bid and applaud the visionary leadership of Will Pickering & Dan Duffy for pioneering lead pipe identification and remediation.' — Mike App, Executive Vice President, Electro Scan Inc. PITTSBURGH, PA, UNITED STATES, January 28, 2025 / / -- Electro Scan Inc. announced today that the Board of Pittsburgh Water ( PGH2O) approved a $12.1 million contract that requires SWORDFISH lead pipe inspection, prior to pipe replacement. The contract was awarded to Wilson Excavating (Reynoldsville, PA) for PGH2o's 2024 Neighborhood Lead Service Line Replacement (LSLR) Contract requiring SWORDFISH testing. Electro Scan's exclusive service partner, Element 82, a division of Crown (NASDAQ: CRKN), is set to perform SWORDFISH testing on all water service lines for the 1,600 homes. The construction contract is one of a series of 'find and fix' capital projects undertaken by PGH2O to systematically identify and mitigate lead water service pipes for the citizens of Pittsburgh, PA. PGH2O remains on track to eliminate all lead service lines by 2027. 'We congratulate Wilson Excavating for winning this competitive bid and applaud the visionary leadership of Will Pickering (CEO, PGH2O) and Dan Duffy (Principal at East Woods Consultants, LLC) for pioneering lead pipe identification and remediation,' states Mike App, Executive Vice President, Electro Scan Inc. Wilson Excavating, a Lindy Company, was one of six (6) companies that responded to the Invitation to Bid for PGH2O's 2024 Neighborhood LSLR – Contract B, PWSA PROJECT NO. 2024-200-105-1. PGH20's customer-first approach has drawn the attention of water utilities, regulators, and industry professionals from across the country. Since 2021, PGH2O has consulted with 32 organizations to share best practices and lessons learned with those just starting their lead line replacement journey. Construction specifications as part of the 1,050-page bid document released in November 2024, included the mandatory use of electrical resistance testing for the verification of each full service water line (both public and private) to verify pipe material composition. Electrical resistance testing is a machine-intelligent solution that automatically identifies water pipe materials by measuring the electrical resistivity for one or more pipe materials. In December 2024, electrical resistance testing was recognized by the US Environmental Protection Agency as the only commercially available innovative solution that accurately finds lead water pipes. Offered by Electro Scan Inc. (Sacramento, CA) its patented and patent-pending SWORDFISH and SWORDFISH Flow Express incorporate electrical resistance technology to identify copper, galvanized, plastic, and lead pipe materials in real time, with detail reports available within minutes. Oftentimes, water systems have multiple buried pipe materials that make up water service lines, able to be identified by the company's SWORDFISH solution; missed by visual inspection of meter boxes & hose spigots, and not found by digging, hydro-excavating, potholing, or predictive modeling. In August 2024, a nationally-recognized water fixtures & leak detection equipment supplier withdrew its acoustic-based 'lead detection product' from the market. This first in the nation construction bid represents a model approach for other large and small water systems that must assess and replace all lead water service lines before 2037. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP) approved the use of electrical resistance testing in May 2024, after field benchmark testing and conducting a detail review of SWORDFISH training materials. To date, PGH2O has received $176 million from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), (H.R. 3684); a U.S. federal statute enacted by the 117th United States Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden on November 15, 2021. Working with the Pennsylvania Infrastructure Investment Authority (PENNVEST), PGH2O recently received an additional $26 million for follow-on lead service line identification and removal work. Funding from PENNVEST aids communities to increase the health and safety of Pennsylvania Commonwealth citizens, protect the environment, promote economic development, and improve water quality. In December 2024, PGH2O celebrated the replacement of its 12,000th public side lead water pipe, where Will Pickering, CEO, Pittsburgh Water, spoke at the event. ABOUT PGH2O's LEAD REPLACEMENT PROGRAM Pittsburgh Water serves about two-thirds of the City of Pittsburgh or about 250,000 people. It treats water from the Allegheny River and distributes it through 1,000 miles of water main to 81,000 homes. Pittsburgh Water continues to replace public lead service lines as stipulated in the Consent Order and Agreement (COA) issued by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP) on November 17, 2017. Pittsburgh Water has a dedicated program to focus on replacing both public and private lead service lines in the water distribution system, which would reduce the risk of these lines leaching lead into the drinking water. Considerable progress has been made and as of October 25, 2024, Pittsburgh Water has replaced 11,796 public lead lines and 8,529 private lead service lines. Pittsburgh Water continues working towards the goal to replace all residential lead service lines by 2027 [Source: 2024 Consulting Engineer's Annual Report]. ABOUT ELECTRO SCAN INC. Founded in 2011, Electro Scan is an international supplier of machine-intelligent pipeline assessment and quality assurance products & services for the water, sewer, and oil & gas markets. The company develops and markets proprietary equipment and SaaS-based cloud applications that automatically locates, measures, and reports pipeline leaks and water service line pipe materials, including lead pipes. The company's products and services detect buried lead water services, typically not found by legacy inspection methods. Electro Scan Interview on Fox 40, Studi40 Live, YouTube Video (Duration: 5 minutes) Electro Scan Inc. +1 916-779-0660 X LinkedIn Instagram YouTube Legal Disclaimer:
