Latest news with #DarrenMcKnight
Sydney Morning Herald
08-05-2025
- Science
- Sydney Morning Herald
A Soviet space probe will crash back to Earth. It could land in Australia
'I'm not worried – I'm not telling all my friends to go to the basement for this,' said Darren McKnight, senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, a company that tracks objects in orbit and monitors Kosmos-482 six times a day. 'Usually about once a week we have a large object reenter Earth's atmosphere where some remnants of it will survive to the ground.' When will Kosmos-482 come back to Earth? Estimates change daily, but the predicted days of re-entry are currently this weekend. One calculation of the window by The Aerospace Corp, a US-government supported non-profit that tracks space debris, suggests 1:37pm Saturday AEST – plus or minus 16 hours. Marco Langbroek, a scientist and satellite tracker at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who has tracked Kosmos-482 for years, puts the estimate closer to 5:51pm AEST, plus or minus about 20 hours. Where will it land? No one knows. 'And we won't know until after the fact,' McDowell said. That's because Kosmos-482 is hurtling through space at more than 27,000km/h, and it will be going that fast until atmospheric friction pumps the brakes. So getting the timing wrong by even a half-hour means the spacecraft will re-enter more than half a world away, in a different spot. What's known is that Kosmos-482's orbit places it between 52 degrees north latitude and 52 degrees south latitude, which covers Africa, Australia, most of the Americas and much of south- and mid-latitude Europe and Asia. 'There are three things that can happen when something reenters: a splash, a thud or an ouch,' McKnight said. 'A splash is really good,' he said, and may be most likely because so much of Earth is covered in oceans. He said the hope was to avoid the 'thud' or the 'ouch'. Will the spacecraft survive impact? Assuming Kosmos-482 survives re-entry – and it should, as long as its heat shield is intact – the spacecraft will be going about 240km/h when it smashes into whatever it smashes into, Langbroek calculated. 'I don't think there's going to be a lot left afterward,' McDowell said. 'Imagine putting your car into a wall at 150 miles an hour [241km/h] and seeing how much of it is left.' The heat of re-entry should make Kosmos-482 visible as a bright streak through the sky if its return occurs over a populated area at night. If pieces of the spacecraft survive and are recovered, they legally belong to Russia. 'Under the law, if you find something, you have an obligation to return it,' said Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Centre for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi. 'Russia is considered to be the registered owner and therefore continues to have jurisdiction and control over the object.' How do we know the identity of this object? Some 25 years ago, McDowell was going through the North American Aerospace Defence Command's catalogue of about 25,000 orbital objects and trying to pin an identity on each. 'Most of them, the answer is, 'Well, this is a piece of exploded rocket from something fairly boring',' he recalls. Loading But one of them, object 6073, was a bit odd. Launched in 1972 from Kazakhstan, it ended up in a highly elliptical orbit, travelling between 200 and 10,000 kilometres from Earth. As he studied its orbit and size, McDowell surmised it must be the wayward Kosmos-482 lander – not just a piece of debris from the failed launch. The conclusion was supported by observations from the ground, as well as a recently declassified Soviet document.
The Age
08-05-2025
- Science
- The Age
A Soviet space probe will crash back to Earth. It could land in Australia
'I'm not worried – I'm not telling all my friends to go to the basement for this,' said Darren McKnight, senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, a company that tracks objects in orbit and monitors Kosmos-482 six times a day. 'Usually about once a week we have a large object reenter Earth's atmosphere where some remnants of it will survive to the ground.' When will Kosmos-482 come back to Earth? Estimates change daily, but the predicted days of re-entry are currently this weekend. One calculation of the window by The Aerospace Corp, a US-government supported non-profit that tracks space debris, suggests 1:37pm Saturday AEST – plus or minus 16 hours. Marco Langbroek, a scientist and satellite tracker at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who has tracked Kosmos-482 for years, puts the estimate closer to 5:51pm AEST, plus or minus about 20 hours. Where will it land? No one knows. 'And we won't know until after the fact,' McDowell said. That's because Kosmos-482 is hurtling through space at more than 27,000km/h, and it will be going that fast until atmospheric friction pumps the brakes. So getting the timing wrong by even a half-hour means the spacecraft will re-enter more than half a world away, in a different spot. What's known is that Kosmos-482's orbit places it between 52 degrees north latitude and 52 degrees south latitude, which covers Africa, Australia, most of the Americas and much of south- and mid-latitude Europe and Asia. 'There are three things that can happen when something reenters: a splash, a thud or an ouch,' McKnight said. 'A splash is really good,' he said, and may be most likely because so much of Earth is covered in oceans. He said the hope was to avoid the 'thud' or the 'ouch'. Will the spacecraft survive impact? Assuming Kosmos-482 survives re-entry – and it should, as long as its heat shield is intact – the spacecraft will be going about 240km/h when it smashes into whatever it smashes into, Langbroek calculated. 'I don't think there's going to be a lot left afterward,' McDowell said. 'Imagine putting your car into a wall at 150 miles an hour [241km/h] and seeing how much of it is left.' The heat of re-entry should make Kosmos-482 visible as a bright streak through the sky if its return occurs over a populated area at night. If pieces of the spacecraft survive and are recovered, they legally belong to Russia. 'Under the law, if you find something, you have an obligation to return it,' said Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Centre for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi. 'Russia is considered to be the registered owner and therefore continues to have jurisdiction and control over the object.' How do we know the identity of this object? Some 25 years ago, McDowell was going through the North American Aerospace Defence Command's catalogue of about 25,000 orbital objects and trying to pin an identity on each. 'Most of them, the answer is, 'Well, this is a piece of exploded rocket from something fairly boring',' he recalls. Loading But one of them, object 6073, was a bit odd. Launched in 1972 from Kazakhstan, it ended up in a highly elliptical orbit, travelling between 200 and 10,000 kilometres from Earth. As he studied its orbit and size, McDowell surmised it must be the wayward Kosmos-482 lander – not just a piece of debris from the failed launch. The conclusion was supported by observations from the ground, as well as a recently declassified Soviet document.
New York Post
29-04-2025
- Science
- New York Post
Russian satellite linked to nuclear weapons program is spinning out of control
A secret Russian satellite that US officials believe is linked to Russia's nuclear weapons program appears to be spinning uncontrollably in space, in a major blow for Moscow, according to American analysts. The Cosmos 2553 satellite, which was launched by Russia weeks before invading Ukraine in 2022, has been tumbling in space for the past year, suggesting it may no longer be functioning, according to Doppler radar data from space-tracking firm LeoLabs and optical data from Slingshot Aerospace. The Cosmos was at the center of allegations from the US that Russia was developing a nuclear weapon capable of destroying entire satellite networks in space, including SpaceX's Starlink system that Ukrainian troops have relied on to fight Moscow's invasion. Advertisement The US has accused Russia of launching secret satellites aimed at building a nuclear weapon capable of eliminating entire satellite systems in space. REUTERS LeoLabs, which detected errant movements from the satellite last year, now has 'high confidence' that the Cosmos is spinning out of control, Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at the company, told Reuters. The satellite was notably flying in a relatively isolated orbit some 1,200 miles above the Earth in a known hotspot of cosmic radiation that normal satellites typically avoid. Advertisement The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said the findings from LeoLabs show clear evidence that the Russian satellite 'is no longer operational.' Slingshot, however, said that the Cosmos appears to have recently stabilized after the company first detected the tumbling pattern last May. Satellites have become key to Russia, America and China's space programs for military and intelligence operations. dimazel – Russia's Ministry of Defense, which denied allegations that Cosmos was linked to its nuclear weapons program, has yet to comment on the findings from the American analysts. Advertisement US Space Command, which condemned the launch of Russia's military satellites, has also remained silent on the findings. Although not a weapon itself, Cosmos 2553 was believed to aid Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. The Cosmos is one of dozens of Russia's military satellites, with Moscow investing billions in strengthening its space capabilities for military and intelligence purposes as the war with Ukraine continues. Advertisement Washington and Beijing have also followed suit to bolster their own secretive satellite programs, raising concerns about a future where space conflicts and satellite attacks become the norm. The Biden administration warned last year that the Cosmos was just the start of Moscow's ambitions, with Russia allegedly 'considering the incorporation of nuclear weapons into its counterspace programs.' With Post wires
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Russia's secretive Cosmos 2553 nuclear satellite malfunctions, risks military fallout
Russia's ambitions to militarize space may have suffered a major blow. According to U.S. analysts, Cosmos 2553, a secretive satellite suspected of supporting Moscow's nuclear anti-satellite weapon development, appears to be malfunctioning. Launched just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Cosmos 2553 has shown signs of erratic tumbling over the past year. New tracking data suggests the spacecraft may no longer be functioning as intended, raising questions about the status of Russia's military space programs. The satellite, believed to serve both intelligence-gathering and radiation-testing roles, has become a focal point for U.S. concerns over Russian activities in orbit. Officials say Cosmos 2553 is not itself a weapon but plays a crucial role in developing technology that could target satellite constellations like SpaceX's Starlink, a system heavily relied on by Ukrainian forces. Moscow denies any intent to develop nuclear space weapons, stating that Cosmos 2553's mission is purely scientific. Cosmos 2553 was deployed to a high-radiation orbit about 2,000 kilometers above Earth — a zone communication and Earth-observing satellites typically avoid. Experts believe Russia used the harsh environment to test the durability of its space technologies. In November, LeoLabs detected anomalies in the satellite's behavior using Doppler radar. By December, it upgraded its assessment to 'high confidence' that Cosmos 2553 was tumbling, based on additional radar data and satellite imagery. Darren McKnight, Senior Technical Fellow at LeoLabs, told Reuters that additional radar measurements and imagery confirmed the satellite's instability. "This observation strongly suggests the satellite is no longer operational," the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated in its latest Space Threat Assessment. U.S. Space Command confirmed noticing changes in Cosmos 2553's altitude but declined to offer a detailed assessment of its current status. Tracking firm Slingshot Aerospace reported unusual activity from the satellite in May 2024. "Slingshot noted that the object's brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble," a company spokesperson said. More recent observations from Slingshot suggest the satellite may have stabilized, according to Belinda Marchand, the company's Chief Science Officer. However, it remains unclear whether Cosmos 2553 is still functional or if it has sustained critical damage. The incident marks a potential setback in Russia's efforts to bolster its space-based military capabilities. U.S. Space Command officials noted that Russia's claims about the satellite's scientific mission "do not align with its characteristics." The malfunction comes amid intensifying space competition between the U.S., Russia, and China. As the number of satellites in orbit surges, defense agencies are ramping up efforts to better distinguish between civilian, commercial, and military assets. A U.S. Space Command spokesperson warned that Cosmos 2553's inconsistencies and Russia's 'demonstrated willingness to target U.S. and Allied on-orbit objects' heighten the risk of misperception and potential escalation. Cosmos 2553 is among several satellites suspected of supporting Russia's military and intelligence operations. Its troubled status underscores the growing challenges surrounding space security and the fragile balance between national defense and global stability.
The Guardian
26-04-2025
- Science
- The Guardian
Russian satellite at centre of nuclear weapons allegations is spinning out of control, analysts say
A secretive Russian satellite in space that US officials believe is connected to a nuclear anti-satellite weapons program has appeared to be spinning uncontrollably, suggesting it may no longer be functioning in what could be a setback for Moscow's space weapons efforts, according to US analysts. The Cosmos 2553 satellite, launched by Russia weeks before invading Ukraine in 2022, has had various bouts of what appears to be errant spinning over the past year, according to Doppler radar data from space-tracking firm LeoLabs and optical data from Slingshot Aerospace, shared with Reuters. Believed to be a radar satellite for Russian intelligence as well as a radiation testing platform, the satellite last year became the centre of US allegations that Russia for years has been developing a nuclear weapon capable of destroying entire satellite networks, such as SpaceX's vast Starlink internet system that Ukrainian troops have been using. US officials assess Cosmos 2553's purpose, though not itself a weapon, is to aid Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. Russia has denied it is developing such a weapon and says Cosmos 2553 is for research purposes. Russia has for decades been locked in a security race in space with the US that, in recent years, has intensified and seeped into public view as Earth's orbit becomes a hotspot for private sector competition and military technologies aiding ground forces. The Cosmos 2553 satellite has been in a relatively isolated orbit about 2,000km above Earth, parked in a hotspot of cosmic radiation that communications or Earth-observing satellites typically avoid. LeoLabs in November detected what appeared to be errant movements with the satellite using Doppler radar measurements from its global network of ground stations. The company in December upgraded its assessment to 'high confidence' that it was tumbling based on additional radar data and imagery of the satellite taken by another space company, Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, told Reuters. Russia's defence ministry did not return a request for comment. 'This observation strongly suggests the satellite is no longer operational,' the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based thinktank, said of LeoLabs' analysis in its annual space threat assessment, published on Friday. US Space Command, which tracks objects in space and has condemned Russian military satellites in the past, said it was aware of a change in Cosmos 2553's altitude but declined to provide further assessment on its current state. The satellite earlier showed signs of odd behaviour. Slingshot, whose global telescope network has been tracking the spacecraft since its launch on 5 February 2022, detected movements in May 2024. 'Slingshot noted that the object's brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble,' a company spokesperson said. But according to Slingshot's latest observations, Cosmos 2553 appears to have stabilised, according to Belinda Marchand, the company's Chief Science Officer. Commercial space-tracking services are relatively young but fast-evolving and in high demand as the number of civil and military satellites in space soars. The US defence department and other countries' militaries, keen on avoiding military miscalculation, have made better eyesight in orbit a high priority to better distinguish between various types of spacecraft manoeuvres and whether objects are civil or military assets. Russia, a US Space Command spokesperson said, has claimed Cosmos 2553's mission is to test onboard instruments in a high-radiation environment, 'but this does not align with its characteristics'. 'This inconsistency, paired with a demonstrated willingness to target US and allied on-orbit objects, increases the risk of misperception and escalation,' the spokesperson said. Cosmos 2553 is one of dozens of Russian satellites in space with suspected ties to its military and intelligence programs. The country has viewed SpaceX's Starlink, a formidable constellation of thousands of satellites, as a legitimate military target as Ukrainian troops use the service in conjunction with weapons on the battlefield.
