Latest news with #DavidRankin
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Yahoo
Teenage siblings ‘taken' from their grandmother in Covington, police say
Covington police are searching for a pair of teenage siblings who they say were 'taken' on Monday night. Police say 15-year-old Zakya Anderson and 13-year-old David Rankin were with their grandmother when a family member who doesn't have custody took them at 11:45 p.m. [DOWNLOAD: Free WSB-TV News app for alerts as news breaks] The teens were last seen in a burgundy GMC Yukon with Georgia tag 00CARE. Investigators did not comment on what led up to the teenagers' disappearance or identify the person they are believed to be with. They are believed to still be in the metro Atlanta area. TRENDING STORIES: Metro Atlanta nurse says she worked three 12-hour shifts before deadly crash Preliminary results released in death of Brett Gardner's son Miller Man tried using Hooters visit as alibi after being caught on camera shooting, killing girlfriend [SIGN UP: WSB-TV Daily Headlines Newsletter]
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
We're So Screwed, Even That "City Killer" Asteroid Doesn't Want to Destroy Earth Anymore
Earlier this year, a roughly 200-foot near-Earth asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, made major headlines, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab warning that there was a small chance it could impact our planet on December 22, 2032. Over the following weeks, the probability of a collision grew steadily, eventually reaching 3.1 percent — or about a 1-in-32 chance — according to figures from NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies last week. But fears over a space rock wiping out one of the most populous cities on Earth amounted to nothing. According to the JPL's "more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory," scientists came up with an updated impact probability only 0.004 percent. "There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," NASA wrote in a recent blog post. "The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth." In short, not even a near-Earth asteroid was willing to finally put us out of our mystery. At least we could soon get an even more precise glimpse of the slacker asteroid. Scientists are hoping to use NASA's groundbreaking James Webb Space Telescope to zoom in on the space rock next month. Intriguingly, according to NASA, there's still a small 1.7 percent chance 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, which could result in a massive collision that's visible from Earth. "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin told New Scientist earlier this month. With a collision with Earth exceedingly unlikely, NASA is still excited to use the opportunity to "test planetary defense science and notification processes," according to the agency's latest update. And the space agency already has some practice when it comes to fending off errant space rocks. In September 2022, NASA smashed its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft into a tiny asteroid called Dimorphos. The groundbreaking mission saw the space rock be knocked off its trajectory, releasing copious amounts of dust and loose rock in the process. Fortunately, it doesn't look like the agency will have to do anything like with 2024 YR4, though. More on the space rock: Killer Asteroid Could Be Headed for Some of the World's Most Populous Cities
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA lowers impact risk of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67 (phew!)
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. If you've been worrying about reports of a possible asteroid impact in 2032, we have very good news! NASA has dropped the probability of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67. NASA announced the reduced impact risk on its X feed at around 5:00 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) on Wednesday (Feb. 19). The updated assessment was based on new orbital data for the asteroid, which is estimated to be around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, collected overnight between the Feb. 18 and Feb. 19. The radical drop in impact risk for 2024 YR4 came just a day after its risk factor was increased to 1 in 32 or 3.1%. This increase saw 2024 YR4 become the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table was introduced. Despite the extreme drop in impact risk, 2024 YR4 still sits at the top of the Sentry table. The next riskiest asteroid on the table is 1950 DA, which has a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880. Regarding the drop in 2024 YR4's impact risk on Dec. 22, 2032, NASA wrote: "New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%. "Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted." As NASA dropped the impact risk of 2024 YT4, the European Space Agency (ESA) also reduced the asteroid's risk of impacting Earth in 2032 to 1.38% or around 1 in 73. Of course, this is an opportunity for readers to tell their friends, "I told you so," about a drop in the impact risk of 2024 YR4!We've been talking to asteroid hunter David Rankin, who first "precovered" (short for pre-discovery recovery) asteroid 2024 YR4 in data from the Catalina Sky Survey (meaning he was able to find images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered prior to its official discovery) since it hit the top of the Sentry Risk Table. He's been predicting that it's only a matter of time until the odds of an impact dropped significantly. Rankin has been reassuring readers of all along that the risk of 2024 YR4 would climb rapidly and then begin to decrease as astronomers collect more data about the asteroid. The asteroid hunter from the Catalina Sky Survey previously explained how uncertainty in the path of 2024 YR4 arises with an analogy. "Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end," the researcher said. "Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end." "In this case, that 'fraction of an inch' is tiny uncertainties in the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescopes' images that can arise from small timing errors and small positional errors," Rankin continued. "It's not possible to get a 'perfect' measurement of the asteroid from any telescope." Even if 2024 YR4 misses Earth in 2032, there remains a small chance, about 1 in 125 or 0.8%, that the asteroid could strike the moon. Of course, by far, the most likely outcome is this asteroid missing Earth and its lunar companion and continuing on its path around the sun. Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say We might have to wait a while until we have more solid info on 2024 YR4's passage through the inner solar system. The asteroid is currently heading away from Earth, but it is set to swing back toward our planet in 2028, once again becoming visible to ground-based telescopes. Even if 2024 YR4 doesn't impact Earth, its scientific impact, as it offers a chance to see an asteroid up close and personal, is immense.
Yahoo
17-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA expert names countries that may be hit by asteroid that could hit Earth
Space agency NASA have confirmed the possibility that an asteroid could collide with Earth in just seven years. The chance that the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, could hit the earth is 1 in 43, a 2.3% possibility. Currently moving away from us, 2024 YR4 passed by Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometres on Christmas Day 2024. However, it's expected to return, getting uncomfortably close in December 2032. The asteroid, which measures between 40 to 100 metres wide, has been dubbed 'the city destroyer' due to its potential to cause significant damage on Earth. Consequently, a NASA engineer has revealed the countries that could be hit by the rock if it does descend from space in seven years. READ MORE: Motorists warned of fines and licence points if they use traffic apps while driving READ MORE: 'Parasite' murderer who killed neighbour dies in jail The official stance from the agency is that they are keeping a close eye on YR4 as an object of interest, so it's not something to lose sleep over just yet. But if it does strike, NASA assures that the damage would be 'localised', rather than resulting in a dinosaur-style extinction event. Considering this minuscule chance of collision, experts like David Rankin, an engineer with NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project, have mapped out a 'risk corridor'. Read the biggest stories in Wales first by signing up to our daily newsletter here A report by Wired highlights that, according to the asteroid's tracked trajectory, if it were on a collision course with Earth, specialists estimate that 2024 YR4 could land within a band of land ranging from northern South America across the Pacific Ocean to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. This means countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador would potentially be in danger. NASA explains that ongoing observations of the asteroid's orbit will improve understanding of its 'impact probability'. On a positive note, they mention the possibility that 2024 YR4 might be dismissed as an impact threat, as has been the case with many objects previously included on NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory asteroid risk catalogue. Nonetheless, NASA also cautions: "It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise." In the event, that it does collide with Earth in 2032, the asteroid would smash into the planet at great speed, estimated to be about 17 kilometres per second, which translates to approximately 38,000 miles per hour.
Yahoo
16-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon instead of us, scientists say
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. An asteroid that's big enough to wipe out a city has a 1-in-43 chance of hitting our planet in the year 2032. But according to new calculations, there's an even smaller chance that it might crash into the moon instead. On Feb. 7, NASA scientists increased the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, nearly doubling the odds from 1.2% to 2.3%. The potentially hazardous asteroid measures an estimated 180 feet (55 meters) across — about as wide as Walt Disney World's Cinderella Castle is tall — and is traveling at nearly 30,000 mph (48,000 kph). Although it is too small to end human civilization, 2024 YR4 could still wipe out a major city, releasing about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan. But what if it hurtled into the moon instead? David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, revealed in a post on Bluesky that the asteroid also has a 0.3% chance of hitting our natural satellite. The effects of this unlucky collision would likely be visible from our planet — although we, ourselves, would probably be unaffected. "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," Rankin told New Scientist. That does not mean we wouldn't see it. Rankin told Live Science that, based on current estimates, a collision with the moon could release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs. "It would likely be very visible from Earth," he said. However, Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist that "we would be quite safe on Earth." He added that any material ejected from the collision would likely burn up in Earth's atmosphere. Related: How many space rocks hit the moon every year? Throughout its history, the moon has been subject to countless asteroid bombardments, as can be seen by its crater-pocked surface. However, if the moon were to take the hit from 2024 YR4, it would be left with a crater up to 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) across, New Scientist reported. (That's just a pothole compared with the moon's largest crater, the South Pole-Aitken basin, which spans more than 1,500 miles (2,400 km) in diameter.) RELATED STORIES — Watch potential 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 as it hurtles through space — Here's what could happen if asteroid Bennu smashes into Earth in 157 years — Newly discovered near-Earth asteroid isn't an asteroid at all — it's Elon Musk's trashed Tesla The probability of the space rock hitting either Earth or the moon is still very low, and an international team of scientists has been granted emergency use of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to learn more about the space rock's size and trajectory before it leaves Earth's view for the next few years. So far, astronomers have only observed 2024 YR4 using telescopes on Earth, and they've estimated its size by measuring the amount of light that bounces off the asteroid. But this is a fairly imprecise estimate. Instead, JWST will measure the heat emitted from the asteroid itself, which will create a much clearer picture of the asteroid's size and surface composition. "As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth," Rankin told Live Science in an email. "When the odds doubled from 1% to 2%, this caused a lot of noise. It's not the same thing as going from 40% to 80% though. This asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over."
