Latest news with #DavidRosenberg
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of Canada faces dilemma as core inflation heats up
Headline inflation slowed in April mainly due to drop in gasoline prices because of the elimination of the federal carbon tax, but it was a different story for the measures the Bank of Canada follows. Statistics Canada said Tuesday the main reading on the consumer price index (CPI) decelerated to 1.7 per cent year over year just ahead of analysts' estimates of 1.6 per cent and down from 2.3 per cent in March. Gas prices fell 18.1 per cent in April, also helped by lower oil prices, pushing the overall inflation rate below the Bank of Canada's two per cent target for the first time since January. However, the central bank's preferred measures — core CPI median and trim, which strip out the effects of taxes — accelerated to 3.2 per cent and 3.1 per cent year over year from 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. April's results boost those measures above the top end of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range of three per cent. Here's what economists think the numbers mean for the central bank and its upcoming interest rate decision on June 4. 'The Canadian inflation numbers for April were hotter than expected, which comes as a surprise to a wobbly economy replete with employment loss and widening spare capacity in the labour market,' David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and Associates Inc., said in a note, pointing to the pickup in core inflation. Rosenberg also said 'it was disappointing' to see a jump in the core reading that excludes food and energy, which has risen in four of the past five months. The 'staycation' trend was the main source of the underlying increase in inflation as travel services rose 8.7 per cent in April month over month. Recreation services and restaurants also benefited from the stay-at-home movement. 'This places the Bank of Canada in a bit of a box,' he said. The latest CPI data shows that 'underlying inflation pressures still pose a threat,' said Thomas Ryan, North America economist with Capital Economics Ltd. Stripping out gasoline, the rate of inflation stepped up to 2.9 per cent year over year from 2.5 per cent. Prices rose for airfares, motor vehicles, with the latter taking a hit from retaliatory tariffs — and food prices. 'While this level of underlying inflation is still too high for the Bank of Canada's comfort, the bank's mostly dovish tone in April suggests it is more focused on economic risks,' Ryan said. Capital thinks the Bank of Canada will cut its rate again in June after pausing in April because weak employment and housing data point to 'growing signs that U.S. tariffs are putting strain on the economy.' The Bank of Canada will likely look past the slowdown in headline inflation since it was mostly driven by the one-off cancelation of the carbon tax, but the acceleration in core measures will concern policymakers, said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. But Mendes said the elimination of the carbon tax could have longer-term effects such as tempering people's inflation expectations. 'We expect that upcoming surveys will show a sharp reversal of the spike in inflation expectations seen earlier this year,' he said, adding that the Bank of Canada should have that data before its June 4 interest rate announcement. Given that the economy is weakening and inflation expectations are slowing, Mendes thinks the Bank of Canada will go ahead and cut rates by 25 basis points next month. 'We recently revised our terminal rate forecast to two per cent, up from 1.75 per cent, and today's slightly hotter data reinforce that decision, but the data don't remove the need for monetary stimulus in the near-term,' he said. Canada's inflation rate cools to 1.7% as consumer carbon tax ends Bank of Canada rate to go lower, but not too low: Desjardins • Email: gmvsuhanic@
CBC
09-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
N.J. firm made misleading websites in names of multiple Canadians and an alleged CRA scammer
If his Google Scholar profile is to be believed, Louis Arriola is a prolific scientist, having contributed to more than 700 scholarly articles about a wide range of unrelated disciplines from economics to advanced nanotechnology. According to the profile, he contributed to a PhD dissertation on the automotive industry before he turned nine years old. While the papers appear to be real, Arriola's contribution to the research is questionable. His name does not appear on the original publication in the 20 most recent entries on his profile and a university professor credited on more than 100 of the papers confirmed Arriola was not involved. An investigation by CBC's The Fifth Estate has found that Arriola is among more than 100 people, including multiple Canadians, with a similar pattern of spam and false web content surrounding them. Website registration records, online advertising data and connections between fake social media profiles indicate that pattern points to a New Jersey reputation management firm called David Rosenberg of Lakewood, N.J., who operates advertises on his LinkedIn page that he can "delete online negative info fast," and that "by creating new and relevant content," his company is able to push negative online information "further down the search results in Google, Yahoo and Bing." A LinkedIn post from Rosenberg states that only seven per cent of people go beyond the first page of search results. "This meant that for reputation management, if we pushed down a negative to the third page," he wrote, "almost no one would see it." In Arriola's case, looking beyond the first page of results and searching public records databases shows a long history of legal troubles. An affidavit from an employee of the Canada Revenue Agency, submitted to Federal Court in 2020, says that Arriola was the operator of a "paper company" with "no real business activity" involved in a tax "scheme" that saw the agency pay out $63 million in what it called "illegitimate" refunds. Arriola also was convicted in 2009 in California for a telecom-related fraud and has been named in civil lawsuits in multiple U.S. states that were pursuing him and companies he controlled for money that was loaned and allegedly never paid back. His Google Scholar profile is one part of an interconnected cloud of misleading and spam websites. Blog posts about him link to an artist profile advertising stock images as his "work," as well as accounts at video sharing platforms and a website containing his name — — which has connections to Rosenberg of The Fifth Estate has attempted to contact Arriola in multiple ways over the past two years but has received no response. For this story, contact was attempted via a LinkedIn profile that was recently active. A good deal of the information about Arriola available online is true, making it difficult to separate fact from fiction. For instance, on his IMDB profile, he is listed as executive producer for the 2019 film Rambo: Last Blood, a fact supported by the appearance of his name in the end credits of the film. "The whole point here is to confuse people, confuse people about the truth in relation to this particular person," said Ahmed Al-Rawi, director of The Disinformation Project at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, B.C. "As consumers of information, as readers, as users of the internet, the expectation is to factually understand the world around us," Al-Rawi said. "If what we are ending up reading about is fake, we will have the wrong impression about what is around us, about the world, about the people we think we know." IP address connections was made available online by a server with a specific IP address, like a street address for the internet. The Fifth Estate sent a message to a phone number associated with David Rosenberg of asking if he was in control of the approximately 140 websites hosted at the same address as Within a week, all but 19 of those 140 sites, including Arriola's, were scattered to a variety of new IP addresses. Many had been at that original IP address for multiple years. Website registration records show that 14 of the 140 sites previously listed Rosenberg as registrant or administrator. Those records were made anonymous in 2018, around the same time that Rosenberg's name was removed from his own website — Many of the websites at the IP address followed a similar pattern, with the first and last name of the person the website was about in the URL. A phone call to the number associated with Rosenberg was answered by a man who declined to identify himself. "I think you have the wrong number," he said during the 25-second call and hung up. A lawyer claiming to represent Rosenberg contacted The Fifth Estate, noting that he was in possession of questions sent via text message to that same phone number. Since that phone call, neither the lawyer nor Rosenberg have responded to subsequent questions or correspondence. On the internet, "you can make up things and create a facade, create a whole world in order to mislead people or create a certain type of reality," Al-Rawi said. Artist profiles emerge online In 2023, Dr. David Gerber, a gynecologist in midtown Toronto, was stated to have"engaged in disgraceful, dishonourable or unprofessional conduct with respect to 10 patients" by Ontario's physician regulator. As the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario was investigating patient complaints about Gerber and pursuing action against him, artist profiles in his name began appearing online. They claimed to show photographs, created by him, some even offering to sell the pictures at a specific price. However, the works were not his, and appear to be part of a network of internet content created by Rosenberg. A number of the photos on Gerber's art profile also appear on a blog at — a website that was hosted at the IP address linked to Rosenberg. "After investigation, Dr. Gerber has learned that [a search engine optimization firm] in the U.S. who he retained from mid-2022 until August 2023, had without his knowledge, authorization or consent, created the sites," a lawyer for Gerber said in response to questions. "Mr. Rosenberg was recommended to Dr. Gerber by a friend," the lawyer added in a subsequent email, stating that the physician "knew nothing of Mr. Rosenberg or any of his businesses prior to this referral." While was taken down following initial questions about it to Gerber, the site appears to have been reactivated when it was moved away from the Rosenberg-connected IP address. "Mr. Rosenberg is no longer responding to Dr. Gerber's communications to him," Gerber's lawyer said. "In respect of the websites and web pages and posts," he said, "they all constitute a form of impersonation, of which Dr. Gerber is the subject." "Dr. Gerber is not," he added, responsible for "any website mill or the publication of disinformation" or "the use of spam or false and misleading content." Other Canadians who had websites at that address include a Calgary orthodontist who admitted to taking payment for treatments and then not completing them and two finance professionals who ran into issues with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. A communications firm contacted The Fifth Estate regarding questions to those financiers, Marc Bistricer and Paul Zogala of Murchinson Ltd. In regard to Rosenberg and they said that "we have checked our vendor invoices during the time period you suggested and neither Murchinson nor the individuals in question ever hired this firm." They declined to respond to further questions. Bistricer, Zogala and Gerber each have profiles on the art sharing website Those profiles include "work" that is not their own and links to a variety of spam social media profiles. Behance users can post their own work, and follow the work of other artists they are interested in. Bistricer, Zogala and Gerber's work is followed by a nearly identical list of more than 50 accounts. Their shared followers include five accounts that are variations on the name Mark Tompkins, as well as accounts for Jay Grieg, J. Grieg and Jason Allen Grieg. Twelve of their shared followers are individuals who themselves had websites at the IP address The Fifth Estate asked Rosenberg about.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indiana Economic Development Foundation releases annual audits on Gov. Braun's demand
Former Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb, former IEDC leader David Rosenberg and the Hoosier State's delegation meet with Flanders Minister-President Jan Jambon on June 4, 2024 in Belgium. The agency's foundation footed the bill for this and other economic development trips. (From Holcomb's official Flickr) The Indiana Economic Development Foundation has poured more than $13 million into travel, administrative and other expenses across six years, according to audited financial reports released Thursday under Gov. Mike Braun's orders. The little-known foundation is charged with raising private funds to boost the controversial Indiana Economic Development Corp. But the nonprofit is on a spending freeze. State freezes funding for economic development affiliate, promises audit Indiana had a traditional commerce department until 2005. That's when, under former Gov. Mitch Daniels, lawmakers created the IEDC: 'a body politic and corporate, not a state agency but an independent instrumentality exercising essential public functions,' per Indiana Code. They allowed its board to create a subsidiary: the foundation. 'Everybody always thinks that the tax dollars are going in one direction: they're going out to nonprofits to subsidize nonprofit activity,' said Indiana University Professor Beth Gazley, a nonprofit management specialist. 'But actually, there's a lot of money coming back from nonprofits to subsidize government activities,' she continued, noting that the federal definition of a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt nonprofit includes 'lessening the burdens of government.' The IEDC's furtive efforts to secure water, land and more for a contentious technology park have made it plenty of enemies since 2022. But now, its problems go beyond public relations. Braun said Thursday that he's ordered a forensic audit and reported 'impropriety, or even the appearance of it' to Indiana's Office of Inspector General amid allegations of self-dealing and more, first reported by Indiana Legislative Insight. And he's taken aim at the foundation. In an April 9 news release, his administration called out the foundation for not filing six years of required audited financial reports with the State Budget Committee. Two weeks later, the lapses were cured and the reports available online. A spokesperson for the quasi-public agency didn't immediately answer Capital Chronicle questions, including why those records weren't submitted. The newly released reports show that the foundation spent $13.2 million from the 2019 through 2024 fiscal years, which begin July 1 and end June 30. The bulk of that, $10.9 million, went to travel, meals and entertainment. Years worth of news releases indicate the foundation has paid for virtually all of the international economic development trips taken by prior governors. The independent auditor used for the most recent three reports — Indianapolis' Katz, Sapper & Miller — also included conferences in this category, while the previous one — Missouri's former BKD — did not. 'Is that a lot of money to be spending on conferences, travel, meals and entertainment? That really depends on the programmatic goals of the organization, the mission of the organization,' Gazley said. 'And only the board can decide: is that the best use of our funding?' The IEDC and its foundation share the same staff and 12-member board. Gazley also said it's 'best practice' to change auditors over time. Get too 'close and clubby' and risk the auditor 'not being honest anymore about the financial status of the organization,' she warned. Another $1.8 million was logged for administrative expenses, plus more than $200,000 for sponsorships. Nearly $300,000 was categorized as 'other' spending. The foundation didn't immediately answer a question about what kinds of expenditures would fit within this category. The reports also disclose about $11.7 million in donations. But they offer no clues as to the identity of those donors. Indiana Code forces the foundation to redact donor names out of public records if they request anonymity at any point in time. Most do. The groups behind 14 of 16 transactions from 2020 through 2022 were shielded from records obtained in 2023 by the Capital Chronicle. Two didn't request anonymity: District of Columbia-based think tank The Urban Institute donated $5,000 in 2021, and the Battery Innovation Center in Newberry gave $12,000 in 2022. Between 2015 and 2025, the center nabbed six incentive contracts that total $18 million, according to the IEDC's transparency portal. At the time, spokeswoman Erin Sweitzer wrote that private donations 'allow more flexibility in how we use the funds and how quickly we're able to access them.' For Gazley, that doesn't add up. 'I don't see how you can defend privacy as a programmatic priority, or a mission-related priority. You just can't,' she said. 'But privacy does make a lot of organizations more viable if their donors are concerned about having their (donation) choices on the front page of the newspaper.' 'The kinds of accountability tools that we have for the public with, if I ordered them in priority, transparency would be at the top of the list. And I think it should be at (the) top of everybody's list,' she added later. But there are indications of who other foundation givers may be — and evidence several have dealings with the IEDC. Organizations can donate money, sponsor events or provide in-kind services. CONTACT US A webpage for the foundation identifies the state's 'big five' investor-owned utilities — AES Indiana, CenterPoint Energy, Duke Energy, Indiana Michigan Power and the Northern Indiana Public Service Company — as 'contributors.' AES logged $10 million in professional services contracts that expired in 2023 and about $2.8 million in incentive contracts from 2014, according to the portal, while Duke earned about $150 million in an incentive contract from 2010. Incentives are performance-based, so a recipient may not earn the full amount if its targets aren't met. Nine other organizations are dubbed 'sponsors' on the webpage. They include Old National Bank, Pure Development, Rolls-Royce, Hoosier Energy, Solv Energy, Doral Renewables, railroad giant Norfolk Southern, workforce development consultant TPMA, and Indiana University's Ventures startup affiliate. Pure Development holds a $94.4 million contract for development work. Rolls-Royce received $21,000 after co-sponsoring a Northwest Stadium suite with IEDC for an Army-Navy football match in December and racked up 14 incentive contracts — worth $74.6 million — between 2011 and 2022. Doral Renewables, meanwhile, is the recipient of two pending incentive contracts totaling $1.5 million. TPMA was recorded as having three service contracts — for almost $190,000 — expiring between 2019 and 2025, and two 2015 incentive contracts worth nearly $400,000. There's also more information on the way. Though the foundation secured an exemption from the Internal Revenue Service in 2012 for future filings of the Form 990, Braun has directed it and other state-affiliated nonprofits to file them annually, regardless of any exemptions. The form describes funding sources and amounts, and how much has been spent on programming versus administrative expenses. All required reports going back 10 years are due by the end of 2025 under his executive order. They must also be 'clearly posted' online 'for Hoosiers to read for themselves,' according to a news release. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Grim' retail sales underbelly points to Bank of Canada restarting rate cuts, economists say
Consumers loaded up on purchases in March to get ahead of tariffs imposed by the United States, but weakening discretionary and cyclical spending should convince the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates again, economists say. Retail sales in March increased 0.7 per cent month over month, according to Statistics Canada's advanced estimate released on Friday, which is the first increase of the year and a significant jump from the 0.4 per cent contraction in February. The results in February matched analysts estimates, but core sales, which exclude automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.5 per cent from January, outpacing estimates for a contraction of 0.2 per cent. David Rosenberg, an economist and founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said there was a 'grim message' embedded in the February data because 'cyclically sensitive spending tumbled 1.7 per cent, and that was after a 1.4 per cent decline the prior month.' That includes a 2.8 per cent drop in building materials spending, a 2.9 per cent decrease in furniture/appliances, which he called 'a signpost of the weakening trend in the Canadian housing sector,' and a 2.7 per cent drop in clothing sales, following a 1.2 per cent decline in January, which he equated to a decline in job prospects. He also said much of the gain in non-core items could be attributed to increases in food and pharmaceutical sales. Shelly Kaushik, a senior economist and vice-president of economics at BMO Economics, said the estimate for March is perhaps the bigger story since it reflects the anticipated increase in auto sales ahead of U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. But she said the bank expects significantly weaker numbers when the data excluding auto sales is released in May. U.S. President Donald Trump talked about imposing automotive tariffs during March and they took effect on April 3, with Canadian retaliatory measures announced on April 9. Given the ongoing flux of the tariff situation, February's results are 'a look in the rearview mirror,' Kaushik said in a note. First-quarter retail sales 'flatlined,' Katherine Judge, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note, which was a big drop from the 5.6 per cent annualized gain during the fourth quarter. She said lower gasoline prices didn't lead Canadians to spend their money elsewhere. Economists have forecasted a decent first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) 'handoff' to the second quarter, but they don't think that strength will last. Judge expects unemployment to rise due to 'sectoral' tariffs, as consumer and business sentiment continues to slump, providing the 'Bank of Canada with enough evidence of GDP weakness by the June meeting to cut by 25 basis points.' David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada has made a big mistake by being so timid Buy Canadian a top priority, Napoleon CEO says Rosenberg thinks a few more rate cuts are coming. 'This squishy soft environment, coupled with the elevated level of economic uncertainty, should be giving the Bank of Canada the green light to get back on the rate-cutting path and not stop until it minimally gets the policy rate to the very low end of the neutral range (2.25 per cent).' • Email: gmvsuhanic@
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Commentary: Trump is wrecking his own economic agenda
This, by now, ought to be clear to President Trump: He can have high tariffs. Or he can have low interest rates. But he can't have both. The problem is that Trump does want both, and he seems to think he can outmuscle or outsmart markets into providing benign business conditions while he riles everything up with tariffs that raise costs and prices. At this point, Trump has tried Maximum Tariff, and markets have responded with Maximum Consequences. The unanswered question now is whether Trump will accept the consequences, which, ironically, would undermine other key parts of his agenda. If not for Trump, investors would be enjoying a sweet spot in markets and the economy right now. Data giving a read on the pre-tariff economy reveal that inflation — the scourge of the past three years — was heading back to near-normal levels while growth and unemployment held up. That would have been the elusive "soft landing" in which inflation comes down without a recession. Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs Inflation in March dropped from 2.8% to 2.4%, close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. "Before the tariff tantrum, both consumer and producer inflation trends were slowing down, not speeding up," economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research wrote on April 11. "There would have been a time when this would have caused bond yields to plummet." Declining inflation, or deflation, usually brings interest rates down for several reasons. It gives the Fed more room to cut short-term rates without worrying about stoking higher prices. It dials down the inflation premium long-term bondholders tend to demand. It can also suggest a slowing economy in which demand falls, lending declines, and the price of money — interest rates — goes lower. But rates have been rising since Trump went to Maximum Tariff on April 2, the day he announced double-digit tax hikes on imports from dozens of trading partners. Trump dialed those back on April 9 while at the same time pushing the tariff on most Chinese imports to a ruinous 145%. Interest rates continued rising, with the benchmark Treasury jumping from 3.9% on April 4 to 4.5% just a week later. That's a big jump in a short period of time, signaling that something disruptive is going on. Economically, markets are deciding that the Trump tariffs will push inflation higher than it would otherwise be, slowing the US economy, lowering the return on US assets, and making other types of investments more attractive by comparison. Rates will have to be higher to draw investors back into US Treasury securities or any other asset linked to the US economy. Trump, of course, wants the lowest possible interest rates, much as he did as a real estate developer heavily dependent on credit. He has called on the Fed to cut rates as a way to offset the damage his tariffs could cause. In February, Trump's Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said "the president wants lower rates" and was focusing specifically on the 10-year Treasury, which determines the rates on mortgages and most other consumer and business Trump had never launched his trade war, he'd have lower rates — and everybody who borrows would be benefiting from them. "The problem is that Trump's tariff turmoil is expected to be inflationary," economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote in an April 14 analysis. "This means that rising inflation likely would delay any Fed easing to avert a recession." Markets have now shown that higher tariffs and lower rates are mutually exclusive — as long as the economy is growing and consumer spending is holding up. So Trump has three choices: Stick with his tariffs and accept higher rates, repeal at least some of the tariffs to get rates down, or try to force rates down while keeping tariffs in place. Markets would cheer if Trump changed his mind about tariffs, but there seems to be little chance of that happening. Trump could accept higher rates and other adverse consequences, and he may have to, eventually. What concerns investors now, however, is that Trump will first try to force rates down through some unorthodox experiment that could blow up even worse than Trump's protectionist agenda. One way to fiddle with rates would be for the Treasury Department to issue fewer long-range bonds, such as 10- and 30-year Treasurys, while selling more short-range bills. Janet Yellen did that as Biden's Treasury secretary starting in 2023, pushing the portion of Treasury debt issued in short-term instruments past the recommended range of 20% to about 22%. Bessent criticized that move then but has continued the policy as Treasury secretary. Raising the portion of short-term bills would mean fewer long-term bonds coming into the market. If demand for bonds remained stable, the lower supply means bond prices would rise and interest rates, correspondingly, would fall. A more worrisome scenario would be Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and trying to install a new chair who'd be more willing to cut rates, even if it did stoke inflation. Some Trump critics think he's preparing to do exactly that, using Powell as a scapegoat for rising rates and installing somebody more likely to take marching orders from Trump. Read more: $6 eggs and other inflation pain points: Here's where prices are rising Firing Powell could quickly backfire since markets rely upon a central bank seen as apolitical, even if it does make mistakes. A Trump-friendly Fed more eager to cut short-term rates would probably make inflation fears worse because it would suggest that the Fed didn't particularly care about higher inflation. Short- and long-term rates usually move in the same direction, but they don't have to, and long-term rates could still go higher if the Fed's short-term rate cuts threatened higher inflation. The third way Trump could get long-term rates down would be simply by causing a recession, which might happen whether Trump intends it or not. Goldman Sachs, for instance, raised its recession odds to 65% when Trump announced his April 2 tariffs, then dropped that to 45% after he delayed many of them on April 9. Yet Goldman Sachs, like many other forecasters, thinks US economic growth will still slow toward zero by the end of 2025, leaving little cushion if there's another unexpected shock or Trump policy mistake. In a recession, rising unemployment and lost wages usually lead to spending cutbacks and depressed demand. That, in turn, normally brings down prices and alleviates inflation concerns. When combined with short-term cuts by the Fed, that's more than enough to bring longer-term rates into a zone that would probably make Trump happy — say, a 10-year Treasury rate of 2% or lower, which might correspond with mortgage rates of around 4%. However Trump tries to get there, he's taking an awfully circuitous route to lower rates, given that he'd probably have them if only he had never launched his trade war. And it's not likely to be an enjoyable ride. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Sign in to access your portfolio
