3 days ago
INTERVIEW/ David Shear: China's buildup poses threat to U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific
China's dream to establish a Sinocentric order in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific poses a grave security threat to the United States and its allies, according to a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense and expert on Asian affairs.
'The Chinese want to diminish America's alliances with East Asian countries in the short to medium term and--I'm sure--eliminate them in the long term,' David Shear told The Asahi Shimbun in a recent interview.
He said the Chinese military buildup gives China an increased ability to drive wedges, or attempt to drive divisions, between the United States and its allies.
Shear said China has been deploying its naval forces throughout the region partly to ensure the security of sea lanes through the Indian Ocean.
According to Shear, the Chinese believe in the philosophy espoused by Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914), an influential exponent of sea power.
The U.S. naval officer and historian argued that naval strength is essential to protect commercial shipping fleets, which transport domestic products to overseas markets.
'The flag follows trade,' Shear said. 'The Chinese are Mahanians. They know that merchant marine and naval deployments go together.'
The former U.S. diplomat also said the United States needs to beef up its shipbuilding industry with its allies to match China's quick pace of launching new, large warships.
Excerpts from the interview follow:
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Question: While China continues to be building large warships, the United States has failed to produce a sufficient number of ships. What can the United States do?
Shear: We should be particularly concerned about U.S. naval shipbuilding capacity. President Donald Trump touched on this important issue in his State of the Union address.
We're not producing ships fast enough. We don't have the facilities necessary to produce the number of ships we want over the next couple of years.
My understanding is that we need to build 2.3 submarines per year to maintain the levels we need, particularly in the western Pacific. But we're building something like 1.5 submarines a year.
We need the facilities and the skilled labor.
At the end of April, John Phelan, secretary of the Navy, visited Japan to discuss defense industry cooperation, including bilateral efforts to maintain U.S. warships, with Defense Minister Gen Nakatani.
Carlos Del Toro, secretary of the Navy in the Biden administration, visited Japan at least three times and had a productive discussion with the Japanese side on shipbuilding.
South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean agreed to invest in a Philadelphia shipyard last year, and the Hyundai group also decided to work with a U.S. shipbuilding company in April.
The United States needs to get together with our allies, particularly Japan, Australia and hopefully Britain, to address these issues.
Q: How do you assess China's military activities in recent years?
A: The growth of Chinese military strength and Chinese naval strength provides a revisionist Chinese Communist regime with the increased options and extra tools it wants to assert its expansive and excessive territorial claims throughout the region, including over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea as well as in the South China Sea.
For the past couple of years, we've seen the Chinese leadership use military options vis-a-vis Taiwan, drastically increasing their operations and efforts to intimidate it.
The Chinese military buildup gives China an increased ability to drive wedges, or attempt to drive wedges, between the United States and its allies.
We've seen intensified Chinese military activity and Coast Guard activity in the vicinity of the Senkakus and Taiwan as well as in the South China Sea. I note that the Chinese have double the number of Coast Guard cutters over 1,000 tons that Japan has.
Q: What is China's objective?
A: Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that he wants the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation' by 2049 (the centenary of the founding of China).
He wants to establish a community of common destiny, which basically means a Sinocentric order in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
To do that, the Chinese want to diminish America's alliances with East Asian countries in the short to medium term and--I'm sure--eliminate them in the long term.
This represents a threat to the security of the United States as well as of our allies like Japan.
Q: Does China intend to deploy its Navy globally?
A: In the short to medium term, the Chinese intention is to increase deterrence with the first and second island chains and maximize their ability to prevent the United States from intervening in a Taiwan Strait crisis.
But it's clear that the Chinese have much more expansive ambitions for their Navy over the longer term, and you can see this in their posture and deployments throughout the region.
They are concerned about the security of sea lanes through the Indian Ocean, from the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf.
China has increased deployments of warships and submarines to the Indian Ocean and built dual-use port facilities throughout the region, such as in Djibouti in Africa and Ream, Cambodia.
The Chinese appear to have interests in other port facilities in Pakistan, Myanmar and even Equatorial Guinea in Africa.
The flag follows trade. The Chinese are Mahanians. They know that merchant marine and naval deployments go together.
Q: Can China coexist with the United States in the Pacific?
A: I think the Chinese want to come to us and say, 'You take your side of the Pacific, and we'll take ours, and all the world will be at peace.'
I just don't think that that is an acceptable arrangement for the United States, and I hope it's not an acceptable arrangement for the Trump administration as well.
Q: Trump is trying to link national security with tariff negotiations. What is your view?
A: I agree with the Trump administration that our allies need to step up more strongly to provide for their defense and contribute to the alliance. That has always been my aim as an American diplomat working with the Japanese side.
But linking economic and security issues as closely as the Trump administration has is detrimental.
It would be very dangerous for us to suggest that our defense commitment would diminish with the extent of the trade deficit.
The Trump administration is also trying to get close to our allies geopolitically while beating them up geoeconomically. I don't think that's a good idea.
Q: Is it impossible for Japan to prevent China's high-handed behavior without increasing its defense spending?
A: Both the United States and Japan need to increase their defense budgets and strengthen their military capabilities to continue deterring China. But deterrence isn't the only piece to a successful approach to China.
Both of us need to be engaging China diplomatically at the same time. It just doesn't pay to stop communicating with our Chinese counterparts.
We need a diplomatic as well as an economic component to our strategy. It's not just a matter of military confrontation to be able to communicate with the Chinese.
I would welcome increased dialogue between Japan and China, just as I welcome increased Japanese defense spending.
Q: Does it mean that a combination of dialogue and deterrence is necessary?
A: It's important that our approach to China not deteriorate into a mere military confrontation.
That is the road to war, and to avoid taking that road, we need to have healthy diplomatic exchanges with the Chinese.
In fact, our actual strategy toward China has been a combination of engagement and hedging and deterrence for decades. The question is which component of that approach you place emphasis on.
We're now in a hedging and deterrence phase, but we can't abandon the engagement side. It's the only way to maintain some kind of stable situation in the western Pacific.
Q: Southeast Asian countries are concerned that Trump is not interested in this region. What can change his stance?
A: The best way to get President Trump to participate in the East Asia Summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit is to get moving on trade talks as quickly as possible.
(This article is based on an interview by Atsushi Okudera, a senior staff writer.)
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David Shear was a U.S. diplomat in charge of Japan, China and other Asian countries. A former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, he also worked in Tokyo, Sapporo and Beijing. Shear served as assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs between 2014 and 2016 under the second Obama administration. He is currently a senior adviser at the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
