7 hours ago
€122 billion investment needed by 2030 to meet housing targets
A new survey reveals that a total investment of €121.6 billion is needed between now and 2030 if Ireland is to meet its housing targets.
Deloitte's new Crane Survey Report found that an investment of €16.4 billion is required this year, rising to €17.2 bilion in 2026, €19.3 billion in 2027, €21.3 billion in 2028, €23.3 billion in 2029 and €24.1 billion by 2030 to achieve the Government's target of 60,000 homes a year.
Deloitte said that given the scale of the challenge, Ireland is unlikely to reach or maintain the annual output of 60,000 homes.
The Deloitte Crane Survey Report is a comprehensive analysis of construction activity across Irish cities, tracking what is being built and where and what this means for the country's economic and social priorities.
The latest Crane Survey report estimates a total housing output of 33,000 this year, below the Government's target of 41,000.
Risks to delivery in 2025 are "tilted to the downside", according to the report, which adds that in the absence of a "healthy planning pipeline" it is very difficult to see the required level of 60,000 homes a year being achieved in the first instance or maintained.
A total of just over 30,230 new homes were delivered in 2024, a drop of 7% on 2023.
Meanwhile, just 32,400 homes were granted planning permission last year, down 3%. Deloitte said this figure is "particularly stark" as it represents just two-thirds of what is needed each year if Ireland is to deliver the 60,000 homes a year required to meet current housing need and future population growth.
Its analysis shows the drop in granted planning permissions was driven by a substantial reduction in the number of apartments which received planning, down 39% year on year.
It noted that commencements soared to 69,060 units in 2024, up 121% year on year, but this was linked to expiring incentives, which were ultimately extended.
Commencements have been subdued in the opening months of this year, it added.
Deloitte said the Government's decision last month to extend planning permissions for schemes due to expire shortly is welcomed. It also said the recently announced reforms to the current Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) model are a welcome step in the right direction, but, on their own, are unlikely to yield a significant activation in commencements.
Today's survey notes that just 895 purpose-built student accommodation bedspaces (PBSA) completed construction last year. This was down from 1,630 bedspaces in 2023 and represents the lowest level since Deloitte's records began in 2016.
The delivery of PBSA bedspaces was confined to Cork and Dublin - with 620 at NovelBottle Works at the former Coca-Cola bottle factory on the Carrigrohane Road in Cork and 190 bedspaces at The Residence on Prussia Street in Dublin.
The remaining bedspaces were delivered at Blackhall Place in Stoneybatter in Dublin where a refurbishment added an additional 80 beds.
The report noted that by the end of the first quarter, 1,400 PBSA bedspaces were under construction across six schemes, compared to 1,160 bedspaces at the same time last year.
Construction is spread across Galway, Dublin, Limerick and Kildare.
Today's report also shows that completions in the Dublin office market rose last year to 169,500 square metres, a substantial increase on 2023 volumes of 95,400 square metres.
But Deloitte said this rise was expected and should not be regarded as an indication of increased construction activity within the sector and reflects the completion of an overhang of stock.
The report says that the only delivery expected in 2027 based on current construction statistics is 1 Adelaide Road, which is already pre-let in full.
This means 2027 may be the first year since 2015 that no new office space will be delivered in the city, it added.
Meanwhie, the volume of new rooms added to the hospitality market declined by 17% last year with just 1,358 new rooms.
Some 4,060 rooms were under construction in the first quarter of this year, however, with Dublin absorbing the lion's share.
This represents a significant rise on last year's Crane Survey (2,850 rooms) as several large hotels commenced construction, including at Dublin Airport, where 412 rooms are set to be delivered.
In total, 1,410 new rooms are due to be added in 2025. A further 2,510 beds are due to be delivered in 2026, with the remaining beds under construction due to be delivered in 2027.
Kate English, Chief Economist at Deloitte Ireland, said we are seeing cranes across the skyline, but not enough where they are needed most.
"What this research reinforces is that the biggest issue facing Ireland right now isn't demand, it's supply. Whether it's homes, student beds, or affordable units, we're simply not building enough to meet the needs of a growing population and a resilient economy," Ms English said.
"A stable policy environment is crucial in Ireland, as inconsistency in housing policy will deter and dampen investor confidence in Ireland. Without stability, capital will be redirected to jurisdictions offering more predictable and investor-friendly environments. This is not a hypothetical risk, it is a market reality," she cautioned.
