Latest news with #DepartmentofAtmosphericScience
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
When does hurricane season start? Could Tennessee see another storm like Helene in 2025? See the outlook
It's nearly hurricane season once again. Florida and the Caribbean are often battered with hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions. It's much rarer, but not impossible, that named storms continue inward to impact Tennessee. Last September, Hurricane Helene ravaged East Tennessee. The storm caused record-breaking floods, unimaginable infrastructure damage and the loss of 18 lives in the Volunteer State alone. Are storms like Helene becoming the new normal in Tennessee? What kind of storms will the 2025 hurricane season bring? Here's what to know. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ahead of the official start of the season, the National Hurricane Center began releasing daily forecasts of hurricane activity May 15. The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than previous years, according to Colorado State University predictions. The research team forecasts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. The 2024 season was about 130% of the season average. "So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017,' said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Klotzbach is the lead author of the university's Atlantic Ocean hurricane season prediction report. Here's what the Colorado State University research team found. Colorado State University forecasts there could be 17 named storms in 2025, about three more than the average year. There could be nine hurricanes in the 2025 season, according to the report. The yearly average is 7.2 hurricanes. Of the nine hurricanes, four could be major hurricanes, according to the research. That's just above the average of 3.2. The National Hurricane Center is expected to release its hurricane season predictions on Thursday, May 22. There is a 21% chance for another tropical storm to reach Tennessee in 2025, according to Colorado State University research. The probability of a tropical storm in Tennessee this season is slightly greater than the 141-year historical average of 17%, according to Klotzbach. There have been 26 tropical storms within 50 miles of the Volunteer State from 1880-2020. Compared to other states in the southeast, the chances of tropical storms hitting The Volunteer State appear especially slim. Florida has a 92% chance of seeing a named storm in 2025 and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane. Tennessee's neighbors to the south, Alabama and Georgia, have a 72% and 67% chance respectively of being hit by a named storm this season, according to Colorado State University research. It's far-fetched to believe that tropical storms could become typical in the Volunteer State but the probability of more intense storms in the Gulf has grown, meaning its more possible storms could reach Tennessee. "We have observed more rapid intensification near landfall in recent years, which could indicate increased possibilities of significant wind impacts farther inland," Klotzbach said. "However, it's a bit too early to jump to conclusions on that front." Hurricane Helene formed in the Gulf of Mexico, now the Gulf of America in September 2024. The storm first made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 Hurricane. The hurricane battered Perry, Florida, first before continuing north. Helene moved inland through Georgia and the Carolinas, then made its way to East Tennessee on Friday, Sept. 27. At that point, Helene was downgraded to a tropical storm. The East Tennessee and Western North Carolina region, already saturated by days of rain, saw major flooding on Sept. 27. The recovery process from those floods is still not over in East Tennessee. Bertha? Sebastien? Who chooses these names? Developing storms that reach the tropical storm classification get a name from a predetermined list developed by the National Hurricane Center and the World Meteorological Organization. There are six lists of names for storms for each basin, which are rotated on a six-year basis. So, storms in 2020 and 2026 may bear the same names. The only time names may be removed or replaced on the list is if the storm were so deadly that it would be insensitive to reuse, according to the National Hurricane Center. For example, the names "Helene" and "Beryl" will never be given to another storm. Here's the 2025 list of Atlantic Ocean storm names, according to the National Hurricane Center. Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Hurricane season: Could Tennessee see a storm like Helene in 2025?
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Scientists Link Centuries-Old Ocean Glow Mystery To Weather And Climate Patterns
Imagine being a sailor crossing the Indian Ocean 400-years ago and suddenly witnessing a vast area of glowing ocean water as far as the eye can see. This blue-green glow was so bright it could light up the night sky. At times, lasting for months and stretching as far as 40,000 square miles. This rare phenomenon was coined 'milky seas' and has haunted sailors for centuries. However, a team of scientists from Colorado State University recently compiled data that dates as far back as the 1700s and discovered there may be a hidden driver behind this mysterious ocean phenomenon: the weather. 'The regions where this happens the most are around the northwest Indian Ocean near Somalia and Socotra, Yemen, with nearly 60% of all known events occurring there,' said Justin Hudson, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and the paper's first author. One sailor in 1854 described what he saw: "The scene was one of awful grandeur – the sea having turned to phosphorus, and the heavens being hung in blackness, and the stars going out seemed to indicate that all nature was preparing for that last grand conflagration, which we are taught to believe is to annihilate this material world.' While milky seas have been well-documented, their trigger was largely unknown until now. Researchers recently found a relationship between when the incidents occurred and the overlap of the monsoon season, which possibly holds the key to predicting future events. More questions than answers still remain, but scientists believe that an increase in milky seas events could be associated with deep-water upwelling, which brings nutrient rich water to the surface during the summer monsoon months. Driven by strong winds, this not only occurs during monsoon season, but can also occur during the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a phenomenon similar to El Niño. Milky seas are caused by a phenomenon called bioluminescence, which is the ability for living things to emit light. The most common example of this is a firefly. While bioluminescence is very rare on land, it's quite common in the ocean. It's estimated that 80% of the organisms that live within 650 to 3,000 feet underwater are bioluminescent. Off the coast of Florida, for example, single-celled organisms called dinoflagellates can create this glow. When they are disturbed, such as by a paddle or hand running through the water, they produce a localized, flash of blue or green light. However, milky seas are different because they are a widespread, uniform and continuous glow that spans vast areas of the ocean. A research vessel happened to encounter milky seas in 1985 and was able to gather a water sample that showed a specific bioluminescent bacteria. Hudson believes the light is produced by a biological process related to the bacteria. 'We know the Indian monsoon's phases drive biological activity in the region through changes in wind patterns and currents,' Hudson said. 'It seems possible that milky seas represent an understudied aspect of the large-scale movement of carbon and nutrients through the Earth system. That seems particularly likely as we learn more and more about bacteria playing a key role in the global carbon cycle both on land and in the ocean.' Though milky seas still remain somewhat a mystery, scientists are one step closer in cracking the code to this mysterious phenomenon that has plagued sailors for centuries. 'Milky seas are incredible expressions of our biosphere whose significance in nature we have not yet fully determined,' said Miller. Adding, 'Their very existence points to unexplored connections between the surface and the sky, and between microscopic to the global scale roles of bacteria in the Earth system. With the help of this new database, forged from sea-faring ships of the 17th century all the way to spaceships of modern times, we begin to build a bridge from folklore to scientific understanding.' Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Above-average hurricane season, US landfall chances in CSU forecast
The first hurricane forecast of the year from the experts at Colorado State University released Thursday calls for an above-average season with nine hurricanes and a better than 50% chance a major hurricane will strike the U.S. The CSU seasonal forecasts were originated by the late William Gray in 1984, but continue out of the school's Department of Atmospheric Science, and are considered in meteorological circles as among the most accurate in predicting tropical activity. For 2025, forecasters point to warmer than normal waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean has harbingers of another active season similar to 2024. Also feeding a potentially busy hurricane season is the low chance of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific by the height of hurricane season from mid-August to October, which translates to less chance of wind shear in the Atlantic. No wind shear means greater chance storms won't lose steam as they plow toward targets in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast and U.S. East Coast. For those reasons, CSU forecasters expect 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes. Of those, four are predicted to reach major hurricane strength. That's slightly lower than what 2024 saw with 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those becoming major storms of Category 3 strength or stronger. Those included hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, all of which struck Florida's Gulf Coast. Helene and Milton combined to cause more than 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion dollars in damage in the U.S. The 30-year average from 1991-2020 saw 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes. The report also predicted landfall probabilities. It called for a 51% chance a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline noting the average from 1880-2020 is 43%. The chances a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula is 26%. The chances it would hit the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border is 33%. The chances one would hit the Caribbean is 56%. 'It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,' said coauthor of the forecast Michael Bell. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and lead author of CSU's forecast said the year looks similar to what he calls 'analog seasons' seen in 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017. 'Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,' said Klotzbach. 'While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.' The forecasts follows predictions released last month by AccuWeather that predicted up to six systems to impact the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won't release its season prediction until May. CSU will update its forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
Euronews
10-02-2025
- Science
- Euronews
‘Science Moms': The Super Bowl ad urging climate action for the next generation
Viewers in Los Angeles watching the Super Bowl this year were shown the first-ever climate advert from a nonprofit group. The Super Bowl advert was created by climate change marketing experts at the Potential Energy Coalition for Science Moms, a nonpartisan group of climate scientists who are also parents. This group includes Dr Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy, Dr Melissa Burt, assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and D. Emily Fischer, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. The 30-second regional advert was played to Super Bowl viewers in Los Angeles and on some streaming services during the famous American football game. It shines a light on the progress of climate change through the timeline of a young girl's life, from birth to the day she heads off to college. 'As a scientist, I know by the time she takes her first breath, 9 billion more tonnes of carbon pollution will be in the air,' a voiceover says. 'When she takes her first steps, wildfires will have burned millions more acres she could have explored. By the time a child born today goes to college, it may be too late to leave them the world we promised.' Encouraging climate action through love A spokesperson told advertising trade publication Adweek that the advert was a 'product of extensive research' into what message would have the biggest impact on the greatest number of people. 'Do you know what science shows is the top reason people care about climate change?' Dr Hayhoe asked in a post about the ad on LinkedIn. 'LOVE - especially for the next generation.' While several previous ads during the big game have drawn attention to climate change, these have usually come from companies with products to sell. This is the first to be created by a nonprofit group. The New York Times ranked it as one of the best ads shown during this year's Super Bowl. Climate ad raises funds for LA wildfire victims The advert comes not long after devastating wildfires ripped through Los Angeles. Last month more than 10,000 homes were destroyed in the region after high winds followed a dry period that left the city particularly susceptible to blazes. A recent study from researchers around the world found the hot, dry and windy conditions that fuelled the LA fires were about 35 per cent (1.35 times) more likely due to climate change. 'There's a very direct link between the fires that we're seeing now - for example, in Los Angeles, and the fires that we've seen in Texas recently and in Colorado - and climate change,' Fischer told Adweek. The Super Bowl ad provides a direct link to support the California Community Foundation in LA with its Wildfire Recovery Fund to help those recovering from the disaster.
