Latest news with #DerekHolt
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Canada's economy flexes while everyone freaks about tariffs, so no rate cut for you for now!
Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing economists' expectations of 1.7 percent, according to Statistics Canada . This growth was largely driven by a surge in exports, as businesses accelerated production and shipments ahead of anticipated US tariffs . Quarterly, real GDP increased by 0.5 percent, matching the growth rate from the previous quarter. The uptick in exports was complemented by an accumulation of business non-farm inventories, suggesting companies were stockpiling goods in response to trade uncertainties. However, domestic economic indicators painted a less optimistic picture. Household spending slowed to 0.3 percent in the first quarter, down from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter, with growth primarily in rental fees for housing and financial services. The household saving rate also declined to 5.7 percent, the lowest since early 2024. Next interest rate decision Live Events The Bank of Canada is set to announce its next interest rate decision on June 4. Given the stronger-than-expected GDP growth, many economists anticipate the central bank will maintain its current rate of 2.75 percent. Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, noted, 'Canada's economy is strong enough for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold next Wednesday.' Looking ahead, preliminary data for April suggests modest growth of 0.1 percent, indicating that the momentum from the first quarter may not carry forward. Economists warn that the initial boost from pre-tariff stockpiling may wane, potentially leading to slower growth in subsequent quarters. In the broader context, the Canadian dollar appreciated against the US dollar following the GDP report, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic resilience. However, challenges remain, including ongoing trade tensions and domestic economic weaknesses.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Canada's economy flexes while everyone freaks about tariffs, so no rate cut for you for now!
Canada's surprise GDP growth leaves interest rate cuts hanging in the balance — as businesses race tariffs and households feel the squeeze Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing economists' expectations of 1.7 percent, according to Statistics Canada. This growth was largely driven by a surge in exports, as businesses accelerated production and shipments ahead of anticipated US tariffs. Quarterly, real GDP increased by 0.5 percent, matching the growth rate from the previous quarter. The uptick in exports was complemented by an accumulation of business non-farm inventories, suggesting companies were stockpiling goods in response to trade uncertainties. However, domestic economic indicators painted a less optimistic picture. Household spending slowed to 0.3 percent in the first quarter, down from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter, with growth primarily in rental fees for housing and financial services. The household saving rate also declined to 5.7 percent, the lowest since early 2024. The Bank of Canada is set to announce its next interest rate decision on June 4. Given the stronger-than-expected GDP growth, many economists anticipate the central bank will maintain its current rate of 2.75 percent. Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, noted, 'Canada's economy is strong enough for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold next Wednesday.' Looking ahead, preliminary data for April suggests modest growth of 0.1 percent, indicating that the momentum from the first quarter may not carry forward. Economists warn that the initial boost from pre-tariff stockpiling may wane, potentially leading to slower growth in subsequent the broader context, the Canadian dollar appreciated against the US dollar following the GDP report, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic resilience. However, challenges remain, including ongoing trade tensions and domestic economic weaknesses.
Bloomberg
23-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Scotiabank Economists Slam Both Major Party Platforms in Canada
Economists at one of Canada's biggest lenders are raising doubts about the fiscal plans offered by the leading parties in the country's election. Derek Holt and Rebekah Young, economists at Bank of Nova Scotia, both authored reports questioning the assumptions used in the Conservative and Liberal spending platforms, which were released in recent days.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's annual inflation rate slows to 2.3% in March, as gasoline and travel costs taper
Canada's annual rate of inflation slowed unexpectedly in March to 2.3 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. The moderated price growth was driven largely by lower gasoline and travel costs. Statistics Canada says the slowdown was held back by the end of the temporary break on the Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on Feb. 15, which put upward pressure on prices for eligible products in March versus February. Gasoline prices fell 1.6 per cent year-over-year in March. Canada's federal data agency says this was largely due to lower oil prices (CL=F) amid concerns of slowing global demand, and slowing economic growth related to the threat of tariffs. "Canadian inflation slowed sharply in March," CIBC economist Katherine Judge wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "The easing in price pressures is consistent with the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by 25bps at tomorrow's meeting, with the downside risks to growth from the trade war outweighing any upside to inflation from tariffs in our view." Economists had expected the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 2.7 per cent in March, according to consensus estimates published by CIBC Capital Markets. CIBC's team of economists called for a 2.5 per cent reading. Scotiabank Economics and BMO Economics predicted an increase to 2.7 per cent. Canada's annual inflation rate jumped to 2.6 per cent in February, following an increase of 1.9 per cent in January. Tuesday's inflation reading from Statistics Canada precedes a rate decision from the Bank of Canada scheduled on Wednesday. Derek Holt, Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, downplayed the potential impact of the new data on the central bank's rate decision in a research note published last Friday. 'Could it sway the call either way? That's highly doubtful,' Holt wrote. 'The BoC's forecasts and Monetary Policy Report will be set before the CPI release, and they are unlikely to be overly reactionary to just one set of numbers.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Sign in to access your portfolio
