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How crucial is free agency to eventual Super Bowl success?
How crucial is free agency to eventual Super Bowl success?

New York Times

time20-02-2025

  • Business
  • New York Times

How crucial is free agency to eventual Super Bowl success?

The Philadelphia Eagles were the undisputed winners of free agency last year when they managed to secure the services of Saquon Barkley. His record-breaking rushing season saw him play a pivotal role in their eventual Super Bowl success. Barkley was an obvious needle-mover for any franchise that was able to acquire him, but does signing marquee free agents normally translate into championships? Advertisement On the latest episode of The Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen assessed the free agency signings that elevated the last decade of Super Bowl contenders and determined how crucial they were to success. A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Robert: The central question at the top of this podcast was, 'How can free agency help you win a Super Bowl?' After going through this, what do you think your truncated answer to that would be? Derrik: To me probably the biggest takeaway — and this doesn't apply to necessarily every team here — but most of the teams that are ready to go to the Super Bowl have the pillars. They have the stars that they need. You have your superstar quarterback, you have maybe a star pass rusher, maybe it's a star receiver, a star corner, whatever it is — you have the guys that you can build the thing around. You just need to build around them with these $4million signings here and a two-for-$10m signing there. Just guys that can give you enough to make sure that you're getting the most out of your star players. That to me is what you see with a lot of these rosters. They just have the foresight of, 'Okay, we need to plug this hole. Not with some fancy $20m signing to go and get the best guy. But just a guy who can give us enough here and make sure that he's going to do his job.' Robert: That's right, and if you look at it, it reminds me of the conversation that we had last year around the Titans and free agency. When I was looking at what the Titans were doing in free agency, my takeaway from that and my first response to that was, 'Which good team does this?' Derrik: That's a good question. Robert: 'Give me the example of a good team that does this.' There is a couple, but the Bengals for the most part signed mid-tier guys who were on their second contracts. What the Titans did felt different than that to me. The Broncos may be a team that spent a lot of money in free agency to make this thing happen. But I do think that operating the way that the Titans did last year, there just aren't many good teams who look at free agency as that sort of tool. If you're going to have a big ticket item, that's fine. But it should be just one big ticket item for the most part, and again, it's in that kind of second tier of free-agent signings. Advertisement Usually, as we look at the way free agency is weaponized by teams to get to the Super Bowl, it's by hitting on those guys on shorter-term deals that just vastly outperform expectations. What is your version of Zack Baun, or Patrick Robinson, or Michael Oher, or Donovan Smith? Finding that right piece to make the rest of the unit make sense, where you're just getting tons of surplus value from that sort of signing. Those are the ones that ultimately are going to shape Super Bowl caliber seasons. We're going to talk a lot in the next couple of weeks about these big-money guys and the guys that are going to get paid at the top of the market. There are plenty of examples of guys in that sort of tier helping a team that's trying to win a Super Bowl. But just as often, or more often, it's the guys that you're getting for cheap that for whatever reason, in your system, surrounded by your talent, at that stage of their careers, hit at the right time. Those are the ones that are probably going to be more important in the long run. Derrik: After doing this, when we get to the end of the free agency period and it starts to die down, I'm excited to look at all of the playoff teams from this year and look at all of the guys those teams signed in that $6m region and be like, 'Okay, which of these little pieces do I think might be the ones that are going to take this team to the next step?' Obviously, it's incredibly hard to pick because you don't know who the next Zack Baun is going to be … that's impossible to define. Robert: Oh but we're going to try to guess … I promise you we're going to try. You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube. (Top Photo:)

Bills vs. Ravens: Who would you rather be over the next three years?
Bills vs. Ravens: Who would you rather be over the next three years?

New York Times

time17-02-2025

  • Sport
  • New York Times

Bills vs. Ravens: Who would you rather be over the next three years?

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are two teams desperate to get their hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Both have been one game away from a Super Bowl showdown in the past two seasons, yet both were stopped in their tracks by the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams have MVPs at the quarterback position, and both play in a stacked AFC. Advertisement But which franchise is best placed to take that crucial next step over the next three years? That was just one of the listener questions Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dug into during their 'Monday Mailbag' episode of 'The Athletic Football Show.' Let us know which team you'd back in the comments. A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Robert: Andrew Constantino (listener) says, 'Both the Bills and Ravens have had heartbreaking endings to their seasons the last few years. Both teams have elite quarterbacks who should keep them in contention every year. Who do you think is closer to contention? How do you contrast the Bills with the Ravens? I think both teams are so close.' The reason I put this question in is that I read it and I was like, 'I'm sure I have an answer.' And then as I started thinking about it I thought, 'I'm not sure I do. I don't think that there's an easy answer.' Did your mind immediately go to one of the two teams when you were thinking about this? Derrik: No… Robert: It's really hard. Derrik: When did the Bills and Chiefs play? Week 13 or something like that? It was right before that when I said that the Bills were the best team in football. Then very shortly after that we started to believe that the Ravens' defense was actually good and this wasn't just a little blip, they were starting to turn things around. But there was one point where I believed the Bills were the best team in football. Then when the Ravens really started to put things together on defense, there was probably a case that they were the best team in football down the stretch there. I really don't know who I think is closer. If you just looked at the rosters today, maybe because of some of the health stuff that the Bills had on defense for a lot of the year you could say, 'If they get a lot of their guys healthy maybe they're a little bit closer.' But even that feels a little bit off. If I really had to make a very fine argument; the Ravens might lose Ronnie Stanley so that makes them a little bit further away than the Bills are. Advertisement Robert: The margins are thin because when you're talking about an impact player at a high-level position — the Ravens are set to lose one and the Bills are not. The Bills are going to bring back their offensive line intact next year. The Bills are also going to bring back all of their pass catchers next year outside of Amari Cooper, who really wasn't a huge factor by the end of this season anyway. I get it because that's a good way to think about it. I also think that you could make a really serious argument that the Ravens are better positioned to have more difference-makers on defense heading into next year than the Bills with (Nnamdi) Madubuike. Roquan Smith had a down year this year, but he's generally been a very good player. And with (Kyle) Hamilton and somebody like Nate Wiggins being an ascending player who had a solid rookie year, you could make an argument that the ceiling is higher for Baltimore on defense because of some of the individual pieces that they have. That might be the tipping point for me even when we consider the Ronnie Stanley part of this. Derrik: That's a good argument, too. You can see why their ceiling would be higher because Buffalo would have to make the Myles Garrett trade for me to believe that their ceiling on defense could be as high as Baltimore's. Then with both of the offenses, as long as it's not a complete (mess) around the quarterback, they'll probably be fine. With the defense having a little bit more pop with the Ravens, maybe they are the team that is closer. This is why it's a good question because I still believe what I said about Ronnie Stanley, but then you saying that about the defense also scares me a little bit. Robert: I really don't know where I land on this. I truly don't know, it's such a coin flip. I'm going to say the Ravens for the reasons that I just laid out. But I don't know if I believe that's true because with what the Bills have on offense with the line and with (Josh) Allen. That's the bet that I would consistently make. But with the way that Lamar (Jackson) played this year, I don't know what to do with it. I just don't think there's really one answer. Here's my cop-out… it'll depend on what happens this offseason. You can listen to full episodes of 'The Athletic Football Show' for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube. (Top Photo:)

What would the Bengals' perfect offseason look like?
What would the Bengals' perfect offseason look like?

New York Times

time14-02-2025

  • Sport
  • New York Times

What would the Bengals' perfect offseason look like?

It's set to be a massive offseason for the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow's future is secure after he put pen to paper on a long-term contract extension in 2023, but now it's time for their other stars to get paid. Ja'Marr Chase led the league in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown receptions this season, Trey Hendrickson led in sacks and was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, while Tee Higgins had a career-high 10 touchdown receptions in 2024. Advertisement If the Bengals are to get back into the playoffs next season, the next few months could prove pivotal. On the latest episode of The Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen discussed what a perfect offseason would look like for Cincinnati. A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Robert: What is your Bengals-centric question as we head into this offseason? Derrik: How do they fix the defense? Obviously keeping Trey Hendrickson would go a long way there, but they are still so far away. When they fired Lou Anarumo (former Bengals defensive coordinator), he was still a good defensive mind. It's just that the cupboard was so bare and they ended up so bad that somebody had to fall on the sword and it ended up being him. Just off that alone, them losing a defensive coordinator of that caliber, I'm already a little bit skeptical. But then you look at the depth chart — outside of Hendrickson and maybe if you think that Logan Wilson can play better — they need eight starters probably. I know people are going to bring up Mike Hilton, but Hilton's a free agent so they just have a lot of guys here where some of their best players are potentially going to move on from them. Sheldon Rankins is also going to be (31). Robert: I can almost guarantee they're going to cut Sheldon Rankins. Derrik: Yeah that's what I'm saying. Robert: As I was doing this Sheldon Rankins and Sam Hubbard were just gone when I was doing this exercise. Derrik: Rankins was the first one I cut (laughs). Robert: If you do that they get to $70 million pretty quickly, but with that $70 million they have eight holes to fill. Even if you wanted to see this optimistically, you could say, 'Alright, Daxton Hill looked better at corner before he got hurt.' So maybe by next year, you can slide Daxton Hill to one of the outside corner spots. Cam Taylor-Britt's a roller coaster but between him and DJ Turner, can you find solid enough outside cornerback play between those two and Daxton Hill to keep rolling with that? With Jordan Battle coming in and Geno Stone still being there at safety, is that good enough? If you can spend most of the resources on the front seven, can you get this back to a workable place? Even if you're not a top-10 defense, can you not be a bottom-five defense? I could at least see that argument starting to take shape. But even in that reality, you probably have to replace six of the front seven players on your team in order to get there. Advertisement Derrik: And that's kind of the issue, where do you actually want to start throwing the resources? Robert: I wanted you to build your own perfect Bengals offseason, so let's do this. With the $70 million in cap space and their draft capital, what in your mind is the perfect Bengals offseason? Derrik: The perfect Bengals offseason starts with keeping Tee (Higgins). But that is going to be a significant portion of your money and you're already going to start to lose there. Tee is going to be a lot of money. You can cut Sheldon Rankins for about $9 million, that gets you to a decent spot. I landed on a number of names to fix the defense. They need to sign two out of these three players; D.J. Jones to fill the interior, Charvarius Ward at corner or Chase Young on the outside. I would probably lean towards the front players truthfully because of their run defense. We talked about this coming into this season and then it didn't get any better. They were one of the worst run defenses in the league and you saw what they were like without D.J. Reader. They could go get D.J. Jones, even though I know it's a very unsexy signing for how bad the defense was. Robert: That's what we need though. We need unsexy signings for this team. Derrik: Eat your vegetables, exactly. He would be perfect for them. But it's obviously not just about the defense. If you look at the roster from top to bottom, I still think their interior offensive line is mostly terrible. They would be behooved to spend their first-round pick on the offensive line to protect Burrow — to make sure that he can do what he needs to do with (Ja'Marr) Chase because this seems to be a very good offensive line class. I know Dane Brugler likes a lot of these guys and even some of the tackles. People are talking about them as if they could move into guard, which is obviously what the Bengals need. So if you could hit on two of those three names on defense, maybe you still have a little bit of money left over to go get any linebacker. Especially if you end up trading Germaine Pratt who asked for a trade. Then go spend your first-round pick on an offensive lineman and then your other six or seven picks on defense. You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.

TAFS Mailbag: Bills' existentialism, rooting for the Chiefs and more
TAFS Mailbag: Bills' existentialism, rooting for the Chiefs and more

New York Times

time31-01-2025

  • Sport
  • New York Times

TAFS Mailbag: Bills' existentialism, rooting for the Chiefs and more

The Athletic Football Show mailbag is open for business. On the latest episode Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dipped into the questions and picked out their favorites. Taking center stage: Should Bills fans give up hope of winning a Super Bowl? And is it really fine to be rooting for the Chiefs to make three-peat history? A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Bradley (listener): Hey guys, love the show but I couldn't bear to listen last night (Sunday night's episode). Why? Because I'm a Bills fan. Should I give up on football and do something else with my Sundays? Is there any hope at all… will we ever get the ball to the top of the hill? Robert: Why do you watch sports? Why do you love football? Is it solely to see your team win championships? I think that should be the goal every year. If you're rooting for a team that's not actively trying to win championships that would be extremely frustrating. If I were a Cowboys fan, I would just be staring into the distance for the next five years without understanding what to do with myself. But let's go back in history if you're a Bills fan. I'm old enough to remember J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards, Rob Johnson and what that felt like. If you're a Bills fan these days, you get to watch Josh Allen play football every Sunday. If I told you seven years ago you're going to have probably the second-best player in the league — a quarterback who will likely win an MVP award at some point and will go into the Hall of Fame — and will be on the doorstep of the Super Bowl every year almost guaranteed, you would sign that bargain 100 times out of 100. Advertisement Derrik: To me, make it fun however you can make it fun. I am fully an advocate of if this team is (annoying) you and not fulfilling whatever you want out of a sport, then stop attaching yourself to them. That's perfectly fine, be a Josh Allen fan and then root for five other players on different teams if that is the best way for you to get enjoyment out of the sport. You obviously know the sport is great. So do whatever you can and take off any limiters that would make you not enjoy the sport. I'm very much an advocate of 'you don't have to be a fan of anything for life'. Dan (listener): I'm not a Chiefs fan by any stretch, but I've always appreciated greatness. This entire playoffs should have been about their greatness and seemed to warp into the refs or the league. Especially from big accounts who seem to lead engagement farming Chiefs hate. Outside of my Chiefs-to-win-the-Super-Bowl bet, I found myself rooting for them because of how asinine the conversation around them had become. Since the Dolphins are never going to win a playoff game again in my lifetime, is it wrong of me to root for the Chiefs? Derrik: This goes back to what I said earlier… do whatever makes the sport fun for you. If it's rooting for the best quarterback we've ever seen potentially making history with a third Super Bowl in a row, yes go root for that. I don't care if you're a fan of another AFC team. This is why the push to talk about the refs in the league — and if it's rigged — is really frustrating the Chiefs. One; they're not a villain in the way the Patriots were, where they actually did stuff that maybe could have garnered hate. But two, this is not just them getting there a second time… this is potentially history, something we've never seen before. Regardless of whether you hate this particular Chiefs team, this is an objectively cool thing. You will be able in 25 years to tell your kids or grandkids that you might have witnessed the greatest dynasty in the history of the sport. That should be something we're all rooting for, or at least glad that we got (to see). You don't necessarily need to root for the Chiefs to win it, but the fact that we're here is something that you should absolutely appreciate. You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube. (Top Photo:)

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