Latest news with #Detrick
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The S&P 500 Just Did Something Unseen in 35 Years. It Could Signal a Big Move in Stocks Over the Next 12 Months.
The stock market has been extremely volatile in 2025 as trade policies and economic uncertainty shake investors. The recent market rally could give some investors confidence going forward. Investing in the current market comes with risks, but history is on your side. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride since the start of the year. After a rocky January, when AI stocks got dinged by DeepSeek's news of a cheaper reasoning model, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) returned to an all-time high in February. Then, President Trump's tariff discussions put many investors on edge as he announced plans for taxes on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. That went into overdrive at the start of April, when Trump enacted significantly higher-than-expected tariffs on practically every country in the world. The announcement produced one of the worst two-day market crashes in history. But after walking back the implementation of most of the tariffs (for now) and investors acclimating to this uncertain environment, the stock market has mostly recovered. In fact, the S&P 500 index just did something in May for the first time since 1990, and historically, it signals a big move in stocks over the next 12 months. Here's what investors need to know. The S&P 500 climbed 6.15% in the month of May. That's the first time the benchmark index climbed more than 6% in the month of May since 1990 and just the seventh time May's performance has topped 5% since 1985, according to Carson Investment Research's Ryan Detrick. While investors who missed the chance to buy the dip in April may be bemoaning the stock market's rapid comeback, history suggests they may still have an opportunity to buy. In each of the last six instances when the S&P 500 return topped 5% in May, it went on to produce an average return of nearly 20% over the next 12 months. So much for "Sell in May and go away." In fact, Detrick's data shows that none of the six instances ended with a negative return over the next 12 months despite the market's penchant for reverting to the mean. That said, investors who bought after the 9.2% rally in May of 1990 did have to sit through a three-month period from July through October when stocks fell almost 20%. Ultimately, however, those investors saw the index climb about 8% for the year after the May rally. The month of June is already off to a strong start as of this writing. But if investors can expect 20% gains in the index for the next year, there's still a lot more growth to come. While Detrick's data shows the market tends to keep climbing higher after abnormally strong Mays, investors shouldn't put too much weight into the historical data. First of all, the sample size is minuscule. Six data points over 40 years don't give enough information for the basis of a financial decision. Second of all, every market is different. The 1990 rally was fueled by falling interest rates. Indeed, the rate on the 30-year Treasury bond fell all the way from 9% to 8.6%. By contrast, the 2025 rally was fueled by easing trade tensions. In both cases, many investors expressed concerns about market valuations amid the rally. Indeed, the CAPE ratio returned to its high levels, and stocks look even more expensive after analysts adjusted their forward earnings expectations lower. Still, it's unlikely the next 12 months will look anything like the 12 months from June of 1990 through May of 1991. As such, individual stock investors should remain vigilant in their efforts to find good investments. As investor Peter Lynch said, "Buy the right stocks at the wrong price at the wrong time and you'll suffer great losses." But if you find a good opportunity, history suggests you could end up with a strong return over the next year. For passive investors, you're playing a different game. There's no need to pay attention to history. You should be fully invested in your index fund of choice at all times. Trying to time the market based on recent results is a surefire way to underperform the index over the long run. May's rally was a welcome reprieve from the crash we saw in April. History suggests more strong months may be ahead, but I caution investors from reading too much into how similar May rallies have played out in the past. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $868,615!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 173% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Adam Levy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The S&P 500 Just Did Something Unseen in 35 Years. It Could Signal a Big Move in Stocks Over the Next 12 Months. was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
19-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Stock market futures are flat after S&P 500 extends winning streak to six days: Live updates
Stock futures were little changed on Monday evening as Wall Street waits to see if last week's market rally can find new momentum. S&P 500 futures dipped less than 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.1%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 15 points, or less than 0.1%. The moves in futures follow a relatively calm trading session on Monday that saw the S&P 500 grind higher by 0.09% for its sixth straight positive session. The Dow gained about 137 points, or 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up just 0.02%. While Monday's gains were marginal, they do add to what has been a rapid and sharp rebound for stocks over the past five weeks. The S&P 500 is now just 3% from its record high. The gains despite continued uncertainty around the impact of tariffs on the economy and worries about a potential U.S. recession. Investors even shrugged off the downgrade of the U.S. government's credit by Moody's Ratings. That backdrop has led to some skepticism about the rally, but Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told CNBC that the rebound should be taken seriously. "All these worries and concerns are real. We're not ignoring everything that's out there. But are we listening to what the market's doing, right? The previous 27 trading days, the S&P 500 is up close to 20%. … That's not a bear market rally. That's not a short-covering rally," Detrick said Monday on "Closing Bell: Overtime." Earnings reports will provide some fodder for the debate about the U.S. economy on Tuesday. Home Depot is set to report its latest results in the morning, while homebuilder Toll Brothers will release its quarterly report after the market closes. Traders will also keep an eye out for commentary about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, as several central bank officials are scheduled to speak on Tuesday, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. Stock market futures were calm when trading resumed at 6 p.m. in New York. S&P 500 futures were down less than 0.1%. — Jesse Pound
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The S&P 500 Just Did Something That's Only Happened 20 Times in 82 Years -- and It Has a 100% Success Rate in Predicting Which Direction Stocks Will Move Next.
The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) includes the 500 largest companies in the U.S. and is the most widely followed benchmark of stock market activity in the country. Because it represents such a broad cross-section of American businesses, it's widely considered to be the most dependable gauge of overall stock market performance. After spending more than two years squarely in rally mode, the storied index has fallen on hard times, driven lower by persistent inflation, the imposition of tariffs, and the burgeoning U.S. trade war with China. These factors have combined to create an environment rife with volatility. In fact, the U.S. stock market just notched its worst start to a Presidential term since 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » However, the S&P 500 just flashed a rare and important signal that suggests the tide could be turning. Given the uncertain backdrop, it's easy to understand why investors are nervous. Between Feb. 19 and April 8, the S&P 500 lost 19% of its value. The tech-centric Nasdaq Composite slipped briefly into bear market territory, slumping roughly 24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the oldest stock market index in the U.S., fared slightly better, down about 16%. The falling markets, combined with the aforementioned macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, had some investors running for cover, helping fuel the sell-off. However, students of investing history will note that the stock market has just flashed a historic buy signal that suggests better times are ahead. A little background is in order. The market is made up of many stocks. Some move up, some move down, and some barely move at all. Getting the majority of them rising at the same time takes some doing, and the breadth we've seen in recent days has been something to behold. In fact, in six of the past 10 days, we've seen 70% of the stocks in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) advancing. This signals that the worst could be over, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at financial services company Carson Group. While that might not seem like a big deal, consider this: Similar occurrences have happened just seven times over the past 75 years, and this marks the eighth. Perhaps more importantly, on each of the previous occasions, it signaled that the market had already reached its bottom, and that market went on to substantial gains in the months that followed. An even rarer signal occurred this week. Detrick points out that market moves in recent days have triggered a technical indicator known as the Zweig Breadth Thrust. This measures the number of advancing stocks compared to the number of declining ones over a 10-day period. This indicator was triggered on Thursday, April 24, marking only the 20th time it has flashed since 1943. The measure has predicted significant market gains over the coming six to 12 months with 100% accuracy. In fact, the S&P 500 returned 14.8% and 23.4%, on average, in the six months and 12 months that followed. This seems to suggest that the worst may be behind us. Does this mean the volatility is over? Not by a long shot. Note that the historical returns examples provided are six months and 12 months out. Furthermore, while the data suggests the worst is over, I wouldn't be surprised to see the broader market deliver a couple of head fakes over the coming weeks and months, and I expect the historic volatility we've seen to continue. That said, with all the major indexes still (as of this writing) in correction territory, now is likely a great time to buy solid companies at discounted prices. Investors would also do well to remember that the greatest advantage we have is time, so buying stocks with the intention to hold for the long term is the best pathway to success. Additionally, adding to your portfolio at regular intervals -- during good times and bad -- takes the guesswork out of investing and helps develop the discipline necessary to thrive no matter which direction the prevailing market winds are blowing. History shows that the stock market has returned 10% annually, on average, over the past 50 years. This shows why investing for the long term is the surest path to success. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $652,319!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 859% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 158% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025 Danny Vena has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The S&P 500 Just Did Something That's Only Happened 20 Times in 82 Years -- and It Has a 100% Success Rate in Predicting Which Direction Stocks Will Move Next. was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks Trigger '100% Accurate' Bullish Signal After 3-Day Rally
Stocks triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal on Thursday, a rare indication of surging market breadth that, over the last 80 years, has been a reliable predictor of the stock market's direction. Since the 1940s, the S&P 500—or its predecessor index before 1959—has averaged a 6-month return of 14.8% and a 12-month return of 23.4% after ZBT signals. Stocks have rebounded this week from their "Liberation Day" slump on optimism that the Trump administration is eager to defuse tensions with stock market just hit a milestone that some market watchers say is a sure sign of more gains ahead. Stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Thursday completed a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT), which is realized when the share of rising stocks increases from a moving average of less than 40% to more than 61.5% within a 10-day period. The rare occurrence, which has only been seen 19 times in the last 80 years, is considered a sign of increasing market momentum driven by broad bullish sentiment. "This signal has been 100% accurate since WWII, with the S&P 500 higher 6- and 12-months later every single time," according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Looking at the last 19 ZBT signals, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6-month return of 14.8% and a 1-year return of 23.4%, according to Detrick. Stocks have rebounded from their "Liberation Day" slump amid optimism that the White House is eager to defuse tensions with China, which the administration has slapped with tariffs totaling 145% this year. The S&P 500 was up slightly on Friday after rising more than 1.5% in each of the last three sessions. Not everyone is sold on ZBT's predictive power. Technical analyst Tom McClellan, in 2015, examined Breadth Thrusts between 1929 and 1934 and found them to be much less reliable bullish signals. The first signal in this period came in November 1930, and it did precede a strong upswing. "But its bullish effect petered out after just a few months, and the bear market was back on," McClellan wrote. Over the next two years, four more Breadth Thrusts failed to break the bear market. "It was only in April 1933 that there was finally a good signal that led to follow-on buying," McClellan said. But that signal was followed by two more in 1934 that didn't come to much. McClellan was writing in 2015, when a ZBT signal was triggered just months after stocks hit a record high. "I cannot offer much in the way of optimistic commentary about this current ZBT signal," McClellan wrote, "especially since it has occurred at a point that appears to be the early stage of a new downtrend." Stocks did rise after that ZBT signal, but it was one of the weakest ZBT rallies on record, with the S&P 500 up just 1.4% and 7% over the next 6 and 12 months, respectively, according to Detrick's data. Read the original article on Investopedia
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
There's an ultra-rare bullish signal on the verge of flashing in the stock market
The stock market is close to flashing a rare bullish signal. The indicator measures broad stock market participation in an ongoing rally. Historically, the signal predicts strong S&P 500 gains in the following months. The stock market is about to flash an incredibly rare bullish signal: the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator. The signal looks at 10-day trading intervals in the stock market. If it does flash, it would suggest that stocks are about to enter a new bullish phase and that the tariff-induced decline from earlier this month represented "the" bottom for risk assets. The indicator measures overall participation among individual securities in the stock market's rally. It was developed by investor and author of "Winning on Wall Street, Martin Zweig. Since 1945, the indicator has only flashed 18 times, with the most recent signal occurring in November 2023. The indicator is calculated by taking a 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of advancing stocks plus the number of declining stocks. The calculation derives a percentage, and when it falls below 40% and then surges above 61.5% in 10 days or less, the indicator is triggered. The indicator's countdown began on April 11, when the ratio jumped above 40%. According to data from it has since risen to 61.34% as of Thursday morning. The 10th day of the countdown clock is Friday, so stocks need to muster a continued rally driven by broad participation to flash the bullish signal. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, has been closely following the indicator over the past week. "Although the computation is a tad confusing, the bottom line is many stocks went from oversold to overbought in a short time frame," Detrick told BI. "This is what you tend to see at the beginning of new bullish phases." The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator has a perfect track record of predicting positive stock market gains in the six and twelve months after it flashes. According to Detrick, of the 18 times the signal has flashed, the average forward 6- and 12-month returns for the S&P 500 are 15.3% and 24.0%, respectively. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
