9 hours ago
On The Israel–Iran War: Diplomacy Must Prevail
The Disarmament and Security Centre (DSC) expresses deep alarm at the escalating military conflict in the Middle East and its nuclear implications.
On 13 June 2025, just two days before talks between Iran and the United States were due to take place in Oman, Israel launched strikes on Iran's military, civilian, and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran launched retaliatory strikes, prompting further Israeli attacks and renewed Iranian retaliation. On 22 June, the United States joined the conflict, with President Donald Trump ordering strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran has responded with more strikes into Israel and a US air base in Qatar. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that we are descending into a 'rathole of retaliation after retaliation.' Despite the latest announcement of a potential ceasefire, the DSC echoes his urgent warning, as the situation remains volatile and highly unstable.
The historical context of this conflict is essential to understanding its causes. In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was agreed between Iran and the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the EU. This landmark agreement placed strict, verifiable limits on Iran's civilian nuclear energy programme—ensuring it did not develop the capacity to build a nuclear weapon—in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions. For the first three years, Iran complied with its obligations. However, in 2018, US President Donald Trump—seeking a 'better deal'—unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement. This decision effectively derailed further progress under this historic framework and has directly contributed to the current crisis.
For over two decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Iran is 'a year away or less' from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran remains under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny, and inspections have confirmed that its uranium enrichment has exceeded the JCPOA limit, reaching 60%—a concerning development, as it is well above the 3% to 5% required for civilian energy use, though still below the 90% needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Despite this, on 18 June—five days after the conflict began—the IAEA Director
General, Raphael Grossi, stated that recent inspections 'did not find elements in Iran to indicate that there is an active, systematic plan to build a nuclear weapon.'
Israel, by contrast, is the only state in the Middle East with a nuclear arsenal—estimated at 80 to 90 warheads—has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and does not permit IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. Due to US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in Iran, IAEA inspectors in the country are now unable to conduct further assessments—let alone determine the extent of the damage or any possible radiation leaks or chemical toxicity. We echo the IAEA's warning that nuclear facilities must never be targeted.
Ultimately, this crisis reveals a deeper truth about the flawed thinking behind nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence. The belief that possessing nuclear weapons guarantees security has once again been disproven. Israel's nuclear arsenal has not deterred Iran's attacks, and Iran, in turn, understands that pursuing nuclear weapons offers no real guarantee of protection. Rather than preventing war, the logic of deterrence has bred mistrust, escalation, and pre-emptive violence. The result is a cycle of fear that brings the world closer to catastrophe, not peace. Nuclear weapons don't keep us safe—they keep us trapped.
We urge the media to reflect on the lessons of history and avoid repeating the mistakes that paved the way for past wars. While Iran's political system differs greatly from those of Western democracies, this does not justify externally imposed regime change, as is now being suggested. The disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq—also based on claims of weapons of mass destruction—serves as a sobering precedent, resulting in mass civilian deaths, long-term instability, and no nuclear weapons ever being found. We are also deeply concerned that this escalation is drawing attention away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza, where Palestinians continue to be killed daily while attempting to access food aid. All conflicts must be addressed with equal urgency, accountability, and respect for international law.
We support the New Zealand Government's call for a political resolution to the conflict through diplomatic means, and we share its position that Iran must not become the world's tenth nuclear-armed state. At the same time, we urge a renewed commitment to New Zealand's nuclear-free principles and to the prevention of nuclear proliferation through diplomacy, multilateral agreements, and dialogue—not military force.
Finally, we call on the media and the public to reject the dangerous dehumanisation of Iranians, Palestinians, or Israelis. People are not their governments. Fear-driven narratives fuel war; we must instead rely on facts, international law, and historical lessons to guide us forward.
