Latest news with #DixieAlley
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Arkansas becomes part of ‘Dixie Alley' as more frequent tornadic activity shifts east and south
Arkansas has become more prone to tornadoes and hail storms as climate change and other weather phenomenon shift storms farther east and south, experts say. Here, a rainbow appears after a March 31, 2023, tornado tore a path through Little Rock. (Photo by John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) In the 30 days after several damaging twisters hit Arkansas on March 14, the state saw nearly four times as many tornado warnings as Texas did. The National Weather Service issued 144 warnings in Arkansas, compared to 39 in Texas from March 14 to April 14. Mississippi also recorded 144 warnings over the same period and Tennessee saw 125 warnings. Alabama noted 57 warnings. It's an indication that the classic 'Tornado Alley' region — the area from central Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas, so named because of the number of tornadoes there — is shifting eastward. The shift is attributed to climate change, the warming of the Gulf of Mexico's waters and a dip in the cold jet stream pattern. Arkansas, scientists say, is nearly in the bull's eye of a new tornado-prone area that's referred to as 'Dixie Alley.' The region, which has seen a vast increase in tornadoes over the past several years, also encompasses Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee. Weather Service survey teams have already confirmed 35 tornadoes have touched down in Arkansas through April. The state averages 42 twisters per year. The storms have also been larger. Arkansas was hit with two EF-4 twisters on March 14 — one in Jackson County and one in Izard County The last time a tornado of that strength hit the state was on April 27, 2014, when a tornado cut a 41-mile path of destruction through western Pulaski County, Mayflower and Vilonia in Faulkner County, and on into White County. Sixteen people died in that storm. Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Illinois, conducted research about the shift, authoring a paper in 2018 that noted the change. Since then, he's continued to monitor the trend and says the trend is ongoing. 'It's still more prevalent in the southeast,' he said. 'And we're seeing more evidence of that each year.' Gensini tracked tornado reports from 1979 to 2018 for his initial study, but also noted atmospheric conditions in the areas at the time that were favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Gensini blames a combination of weather phenomenon for the increase in Arkansas' tornadoes. A drought in the southwest is taking away needed moisture for the formation of twisters in the traditional Tornado Alley region. More than 67% of Arizona is experiencing 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought conditions — the two highest levels of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor is based at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln and records weather conditions and patterns weekly. Three months ago, only 17% of Arizona was under the same two drought conditions. A year ago, the state was considered free from extreme and exceptional drought. New Mexico, Texas and Utah have also seen increases in drought in their respective states. Thirty percent of Texas is in 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought, an increase from 14% three months ago. 'The most intense levels of drought now cover a broad area from southeastern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah through much of Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, and the author of the latest drought report. 'The southern Great Plains are drying up,' Gensini added. The dry atmospheric conditions in the southwest create a dome of high pressure over the western U.S., sapping energy from the atmosphere and forcing potential tornado-producing systems to move further east. The jet stream, a strong current of frigid Arctic air, is also dipping further south into the Mississippi delta region because of the Southwestern drought. Water temperature in the Gulf has also increased on average by one or two degrees, creating the moist, humid air needed for tornadoes. 'One or two degrees may not seem much. But think of the difference between 32 degrees and 33 degrees,' Gensini said, referring to the temperature when water freezes. 'It's early in the season, and the waters are warmer. That warm, humid air is heading into Arkansas where the air has been unstable already. It makes things more potent. 'We're seeing weather pattern changes over the last 70 to 80 years that didn't happen in 100,000 to 120,000 years before,' he said. 'There is such a rapid rate of change, and it's not lessening.' Of the 144 warnings issued in Arkansas between March 14 and April 14, not all produced tornadoes, said Dennis Cavanaugh, the National Weather Service warning coordinator in North Little Rock. In fact, the Weather Service strives to keep its 'false alarm' rate of tornado warnings to less than 80%. Warnings are issued when Doppler weather radar picks up rotation in clouds, signature 'inflow notches' that indicate the building of cyclonic air patterns, hail cores and other indicators. The Weather Service also must balance the need to warn people while also not unnecessarily alarming them. Issue too many warnings that don't produce tornadoes, and the public may become complacent and not heed future warnings as seriously. John Robinson, a former Meteorologist in Charge at the North Little Rock station, used to say that more people were injured in tornadoes while gawking at clouds for confirmation of those tornadoes rather than seeking shelter when warnings were issued. On the other side, if the Weather Service curtails its warnings and an unwarned tornado does form, results could be devastating. 'Radar can't see tornadoes,' Cavanaugh said. 'It can see circulation aloft when it's likely a tornado is forming. If we wait to see the debris cloud from a tornado that's on the ground to issue a warning, it's much too late.' Cavanaugh said continued advances in technology should help the Weather Service lower its rate of false alarms. But the service will always rely on trained storm spotters who can see the lowering of wall clouds — a first step in the formation of tornadoes — and any circulation of clouds overhead. 'That's really not applicable to this year,' he said of the fear that the scores of warnings issued may eventually be ignored. 'I don't think the average Arkansan thought he or she was not warned unnecessarily.' During a round of storms one April evening, Ryan Vaughn, the meteorologist for KAIT8 in Jonesboro, was broadcasting live storm coverage. At one point, most of northeast Arkansas was placed under a myriad of tornado warnings. Vaughn took a deep sigh on air. 'I don't think I've ever said this before, but if you're anywhere in northeast Arkansas, take cover now,' he told viewers. Tornadoes are formed by opposing winds at various levels. Strong winds in opposite directions cause a shear and a horizontal column of air circulating overhead. Warm, humid air feeds the twister and eventually the column of air begins tilting vertically and lowering to become a destructive tornado. And if the increase in tornadoes in Arkansas and the Delta is not enough, Gensini said the ingredients for twister formation should also cause larger hail storms. Hail is formed inside supercell thunderstorms. The rising air inside a building storm lofts raindrops into freezing air. It causes hail, which falls to the ground. Many times, a frozen raindrop falls in the size of a pea or gravel. But with more convection inside the stronger storms, that pea-sized bit of hail is lofted over and over again inside the system, growing larger as more water freezes on it. That's what causes the golf ball- and baseball-sized hail and are indicative of stronger storms and tornadoes. Gensini is about to embark on a 40-day field study this summer of hail storms. 'Tornadoes get all the attention on the news because of the visual destruction,' he said. 'You see a path of destruction with shattered homes. But hail is much worse overall. It damages roofs, cars and agriculture in a much larger area. 'I think the south and southeast will see a lot more problems in the years coming,' he said. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will Nashville reach 100 degrees this summer?
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Middle Tennessee is getting its first taste of summer with 90° temperatures in the forecast for the last days of April. With the heat this high during the spring, you are probably wondering how hot this summer will get. In Tennessee, it's normal to have 'feels-like' temperatures in the 100s daily during June, July, and August. You might be surprised to learn that the air temperature rarely reaches the triple digits in Nashville. Middle Tennessee's first 90° day of 2025 could be here before you know it During the last 10 years, Nashville has only reached the triple digits a total of eight days. All eight of those days occurred in the last three years. This means that in only 30% of the last 10 years, Nashville has recorded a day in the triple digits. It's not just the last decade. In the last 30 years, Music City has only reached the triple digits during 10 of them. Since records began in the 1800s, Nashville has only recorded a temperature of 100° or higher in about 30% of the years. The reason triple-digit temperatures are rare in Middle Tennessee is due to the high humidity. Sticky air that causes our feels-like temperature/heat index to reach the 100s is the same thing that prevents our air temperature from getting that high. Strong storms possible Tuesday afternoon Humid air has a lot of water in it, and that makes it much more difficult to heat up. This is why an arid city like Las Vegas reaches the triple digits nearly every day during the summer, while Nashville rarely sees 100°, despite both cities being at the same latitude. The high humidity, along with its proximity to the ocean, is why the city of Tampa, Florida, has never recorded a temperature in the triple digits, despite being so far south. In order for the temperature to reach the triple digits in Nashville, the humidity needs to be lower. This typically occurs when there are long stretches without rainfall and drought conditions. 'Dixie Alley' has seen more tornadoes than Tornado Alley so far this year Nashville's average rainfall during the summer is 12.39 inches, and all five of the years with the most 100° days recorded much less rainfall than that. ⏩ This means if we see consistent rainfall this summer, we probably won't see many or any days in the triple digits. In conclusion, our chance of the mercury reaching 100° might be low, but our chance that it will feel like 100° is 100 percent! Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will Tennessee be hit with once in 1,000-year rain? Latest forecast ahead of severe weather
Days after multiple tornadoes tore through the state, parts of Tennessee are bracing for a possible once in a 1,000 year rain event. A storm system is ripping through the central United States, potentially dropping more than 10 inches of rain in some communities, including in parts of West Tennessee. The latest predictions from AccuWeather, the storm is expected to dump the equivalent of up to four months' worth of rain over a five-day period. "Should the amount of rain occur that we anticipate over the middle of the nation, it would exceed the 500 to 1,000-year average," AccuWeather meteorologist William Clark said, "Truly, the potential is there for a historic flash flooding event." This rain event and other storm systems are expected to impact a 1,000-mile swath from Texas to Ohio, according to Accuweather. Parts of the U.S. could see "generational" rain amounts and, along with it, flash floods and even possibly tornadoes. 'People who have lived in a community their entire lives may see water rapidly rising and flooding areas they have never seen flood before," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "Do not assume that if you have not seen flooding in an area before, that it will not occur this time.' Here's how Tennessee is expected to fare as this "generational" rain event moves across the U.S. Where is 'Dixie Alley'? Term looks at shift in 'tornado alley' to the southeast Western Tennessee is expected to get the brunt of these storm systems, with some meteorologist predicting upwards of a foot of rain to fall in the Memphis area over the next five days. The National Weather Service also expects areas of the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys to see a tornado outbreak starting Wednesday into the night. Here are the different hazardous weather advisories already in place by the weather service: Memphis, West Tennessee: Wind advisory until midnight on Wednesday and a flood watch until 7 a.m. Sunday, April 6. Nashville, Middle Tennessee: Wind advisory until 4 a.m. on Thursday, April 3, and a flood watch until 7 a.m. Sunday, April 6. The National Weather Service warns that Tennesseans in these communities should be prepared for severe weather, including the potential for significant rain, flash flooding, large hail, straight line winds and even tornadoes. West and Middle Tennessee are expected to see rain starting late Wednesday afternoon and it will continue through the weekend. Significant rain is expected during this time, and communities in Middle and West Tennessee should be prepared for possible flooding during this event. Here's how many inches of rain are predicted for some areas as of Wednesday morning. Union City: 10-15 inches Along and north of I-40 in West Tennessee: 10-15 inches Memphis, Shelby County: 8-10 inches Clarksville: 8-10 inches Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston counties: 6-10 inches Waverly: 6-8 inches Nashville: 5-6 inches East Tennessee will be spared the brunt of the storm but could see rain and severe storms this weekend. The National Weather Service out of Memphis referred to these storm systems' potential to bring "generational flooding" to the area. This usually refers to an event that usually only happens once in a a once-in-a-lifetime event. People in East Tennessee and western North Carolina saw similar flooding after Tropical Storm Helene dumped massive amounts of rain in those communities, which caused rivers to crest to historic levels and cut a swath of destruction that has forever changed those communities. Keep up to date with the latest weather warnings below. When a tornado watch is in place tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area, according to the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service suggests people who are in the warning area review and discuss their emergency plans, check supplies and have a safe room incase the weather takes a turn for the worse. When a tornado warning is issued, it means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property. Here are some suggestions from the National Weather Service if a tornado warning is issued for your area: Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building Avoid windows If in a mobile home, a vehicle, or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris Warnings typically are for a much smaller area that may be impacted by a tornado identified by a forecaster on radar, a trained spotter or law enforcement who is watching the storm, according to the National Weather Service. Tornado warnings are issued by your local forecast office. Flash flooding usually begins within six hours, but often within three hours, of heavy rain or mass amounts of water accumulating in an area, according to the National Weather Service. This type of flooding usually happens very quickly and catches people off guard. It can be caused by a number of things, but is often due to extremely heavy rainfall from thunderstorms. "The intensity of the rainfall, the location and distribution of the rainfall, the land use and topography, vegetation types and growth/density, soil type, and soil water-content all determine just how quickly the flash flooding may occur, and influence where it may occur," writes the National Weather Service. A flood watch and a flood warning are two different things. Here's the difference. A flood watch indicates that the conditions are favorable to flooding in an area that is under a watch. These flood watches are usually issued hours and even days ahead of the weather event that could cause the flooding. A flood warning means that the flooding that could be harmful and poses a serious threat to property and people is expected. This too can be issued hours and days ahead of time based on forecast predictions. Anytime flooding is a risk people should use caution. Water levels can change rapidly during periods of heavy rainfall. This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Tennessee severe weather forecast ahead of generational flooding event
Yahoo
24-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Where is 'Dixie Alley'? Term looks at shift in 'tornado alley' to the southeast
As we head into tornado season, talks of "Tornado Alley" crop up more and more. But while the plains see a number of destructive weather phenomena, so does the South. According to information compiled from the National Weather Service and other weather services, tornadoes in the South tend to be deadlier than those in the Plains because of several factors such as longer, larger tornado paths, expanding population, more mobile homes and more nighttime tornadoes. A term coined "Dixie Alley," has cropped up in recent years as the number of destructive and fatal tornadoes that rip through states in the South increased. And while it isn't a term used by meteorologists, it has started to gain traction in American culture. "Tornado Alley is an area of the U.S. where there is a high potential for tornado development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. The area considered Tornado Alley consists of much of northern Texas northward through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and parts of Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska and eastern Colorado are considered part as well. This region of the U.S. is considered to be vulnerable to tornado development because contrasting air masses frequently collide to produce strong and violent thunderstorms. A perfect stage for tornado development, according to AccuWeather. Only three whole states are part of tornado alley: Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Tennessee is not part of Tornado Alley, but the state has had its fair share of tornadoes over the years. Comparing annual data from 1980 to 1999 with 2000 to 2019, 20 U.S. states saw an increase in tornado activity, including Tennessee. Scientists can't pinpoint precisely how much may be due to an increase in reporting due to improved technology. At the beginning of February, two tornadoes ripped through East Tennessee and in recent weeks the state and Mississippi Valley have seen its fair share of deadly storms. And while devastating, the increase in tornado activity in these areas isn't something new. In the last several years, meteorologists have noticed a shift toward the Southeast as the frequency of tornadoes increased in Southern states like Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama. The Southern states that are in the path of the shift are parts of eastern Texas and Arkansas into Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and includes upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. This area has been referred to as "Dixie Alley" since the 1970s, but weather service institutions — like the Weather Channel — have refrained from using the name in recent years. Tennessee usually sees the highest number of tornadoes during the month of April, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But tornado season runs from March to May in Tennessee. One of the biggest factors affecting the weather in the Southern part of the U.S. is the Gulf of Mexico. According to AccuWeather, the water in the gulf may heat up quickly during the middle and latter part of the spring, which could cause troublesome weather in May. This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: What is 'Dixie Alley'? Has Tennessee become part of tornado alley?
