01-05-2025
Connacht title still its own reward despite shocking draw
This column was supposed to be solely concerned with the build-up to the Connacht final.
Mayo v Galway in Castlebar in a fixture as old as time, one to warm the hearts of the traditionalists.
Said traditionalists will presumably be aghast to learn that there's talk of whether the teams will even be bothered winning it, given what awaits them in the group stage.
The whole shape of the group phase has been upended by the seismic events in Portlaoise last weekend.
First off, you'd have to pay tribute to the Meath team, for finally sticking it to the evil empire.
In particular, the likes of Donal Keogan and Bryan Menton, lads who'd I have played against plenty over the course of their career, and spent their whole time in an inter-county jersey living in the shadow of Dublin.
They shipped some horrible beatings over the course of those 14 long years. For them, last weekend must have been especially sweet. It's even more impressive given how their league finished, with the upheaval in the coaching team and the loss of Jordan Morris to injury.
For the rest of Leinster, it can only offer some hope.
I know it was bittersweet for John Heslin, who jokingly pointed out that he made his inter-county debut for Westmeath in 2011 and then retired the year before the Dubs were finally beaten.
As for Dublin, it underlines again that their era of dominance in the 2010s has now passed into history. For passages in the second half, you half-assumed that they were going to press down on the accelator and overhaul the deficit sooner or later.
But maybe that old assurance and efficiency is no longer in their make-up. Down the stretch, we saw mistakes of the kind you just didn't see in the 2010s - God, if only we had - loose passes, ill-advised pot-shots, forwards getting turned over in promising situations.
Back in Jim Gavin's day, they were able to exert such control in games and manage their way through them. Now, they're playing a game where order and control is harder to impose. Have they adapted?
Obviously, the personnel has changed substantially, even since last year. But there's still a healthy dose of experience there and multiple All-Ireland winners dotted around the field - Ciarán Kilkenny, Con O'Callaghan, Davy Byrne, Niall Scully, Cormac Costello, Paddy Small.
The quality should still be there to dispatch Meath but their decision-making was off-key at the pivotal moments and there was an air of panic in the closing stages.
And look, we saw the warning signs in the league. They took sizable beatings away from home against Armagh and Tyrone and were fairly well beaten by Donegal. Even against Kerry, they gave away a massive lead against the wind and it took a huge effort to reel it in.
O'Moore Park didn't witness the only humdinger of the weekend, with Armagh seeing off Tyrone in Clones, another prediction I got wrong last week (you'll give me Louth, at least).
McGeeney's team are wearing the mantle of champions well. Rather than rob them of hunger, it seems to have just given them a sense of composure and assurance, which they were accused of lacking for so long.
When you consider the Dubs lost 16 of their 28 kickouts in Portlaoise, the Armagh stats in this area are sensational. 96% success rate!!
Tyrone did, partly, facilitate this by being too passive, failing to press high enough and offering them too many short ones. Another missed opportunity for them in Ulster but they showed enough that they'll be dangerous in the All-Ireland series.
Mayo seek to halt four in a row
With all that acknowledged, maybe the Dubs are not such a horrible third seed to draw for this week's winner in MacHale Park?
Whatsapp exploded yesterday with lads wondering aloud whether you'd be better off losing the Connacht final. Will Mayo and Galway throw out the Masters team? Could I be sent for?
We had a similar scenario last year - albeit the draw wasn't as outrageously bad - with people wondering whether it'd be better to lose the Connacht final. Kevin McStay rubbished it in the aftermath.
I still think the whole narrative is nonsense. The draw is the draw - and it's pretty hellish. (The Connacht champions managed to get the worst possible team in every pot! What are the actual odds of that happening?)
The counter-point is that the loser doesn't get it much easier. The Ulster champions and then Tyrone as a third seed.
And then there's the simple reality that if you want to win the thing out, you're going to have beat the big teams at some stage.
I think maintaining the winning habit and the confidence and momentum that flows from that is better than approaching a game half-heartedly - regardless of what's coming down the track.
That's even leaving aside the carrot of a Connacht medal itself, which is always of huge value out west.
For Mayo, there's a particular imperative to stop Galway winning a first four-in-a-row since the 1960s.
Our own five-in-a-row from 2011 to 2015 suddenly feels a long time ago.
My only Connacht final against Galway in Castlebar was back in 2014, at a time when we felt we could bully them. We won handily that day but within a couple of years, Galway had their act together and turned us over in Connacht three years running.
My favourite Connacht final was the 2021 game in Croker, when we came from five down to win by six in the second half. At the time, we thought we had re-established supremacy in the province but it's turned out to be a false dawn.
Four years on, there's a definite anxiety in Mayo that Galway are in danger of stretching away in the province.
Their dismissal of Roscommon - as we know, always a dangerous game in the province - was impressive, all the more so in the absence of Shane Walsh and with Damien Comer just making a cameo appearance.
With the squad they've assembled and their recent experience in finals, Galway are definitely in Sam-or-Bust territory. For Mayo and Kevin McStay, a Connacht title may carry more weight at present.
A lot will hinge on Ryan O'Donoghue, who's been well shackled by Johnny McGrath in recent games. Ben O'Carroll, a rare bright spark for the Rossies the last day, showed that the best way forward is to drive and run at McGrath as often as possible.
The supporting cast on the forward line will need to step up, the likes of Darren McHale and Fergal Boland are well able to slot over points, as are Jordan Flynn and Mattie Ruane from out the field.
However, the dearth of two-pointers so far is an issue. Mayo didn't manage a single two-pointer in their two Connacht games so far and they weren't exactly sailing over during the league either.
In the Leitrim game, the maligned Steven Poacher simply sat his defence inside the arc and offered Mayo the two-point opportunities, believing - correctly - that they wouldn't take them.
The contrast with Galway is jarring, given their wealth of shooting options from two-point range, even if Walsh is likely to be missing again.
The midfield area was a bloodbath for Roscommon in Salthill. Here, I'd expect Mayo to be more competitive - and considerably less naive. I can't imagine Céin D'arcy will be allowed rule the skies again. Aidan O'Shea will surely have licence to drift out to middle and contest the kickouts, where he'll be a wrecking ball to match the Galway fetchers.
Mayo need to show real tenacity and aggression in the contact area in the middle third and they need to be ravenous on breaking ball, which is a huge facet of the game, as Meath demonstrated last Sunday. When they get it, boom it on quickly and create some chaos up top.
With all that's on the line, I'd be backing Mayo to bring the requisite energy and aggression, though on form, the head says that Galway will get over the line by two to three points.
And onward to the Group of Death.
