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Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre breaks down three takeaways from the trading day, including the session's broad rebound in equities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (^DJI) and Dow Jones Transportation Average's (^DJT) performance, and a comparison between how the US dollar (DX=F) and commodities, such as gold (GC=F), are performing. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. US stocks surging post a comeback from Friday's losses. The move higher comes amid improved prospects for a US-EU trade agreement. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joining us now with the trading day takeaways. Thank you, Josh. With another trading day detont, we got a risk-on market. That has been the theme of the day. And I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. I just want to show you the smattering of markets that just did really well today. Most of these markets having their best day in at least two weeks. Arc Innovation Fund, number one. So, a lot of those smaller issues, although Tesla, one of the MAG 7 is front and center there. And then, speaking of Tesla, the MAG 7 ETF MAGS. Then, we got SOX, that's uh chip stocks. Then, we got New York Fang. Then, small caps. Then, defense and aerospace. Then, regional banks. The Qs. You get the picture here. Even retail up over 2%. So, a broad swath of equities doing pretty well today. And I had the chance to talk to, and this is on the back of the 30-year falling back below 5% today, and I think that was a key development because anytime the 30-year is punched north of 5% or threaten that, we've had some problems. And I did have the chance to talk to John Har last week on stocks and translation about, you know, the bond market and how it's kind of acting differently over the last few years than the prior 40. Here's what he had to say. After that 2022 bond bear market, uh 2023 was not a particularly good year for bonds either. A lot of them were calling for things to reverse in 2024. And that is a common strategy. You just say, hey look, mean reversion. Mean reversion loves it. Everyone loves mean reversion. It works well sometimes. It did not work well in 2024. 2024 was not a good year for bonds. So I think the bottom line for investors here, we got a new playbook that we got to realize and structurally higher rates are probably going to be a part of it, and we got to watch the 30-year. We got a bunch of auctions this week. We had the two today, we got the five and the seven coming up Wednesday, Thursday. Back to that risk-on thesis. The the bullishness we saw today, uh pretty broad-based, correct? You know, that was the case, and I was looking at the Dow markets. So, if you take a look at the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, and on the Yahoo Finance site, that is caret DJI and caret DJT. You got to put the caret there because that's not Donald J. Trump. Uh the Dow Transports have been around since 1886. This is a year-to-date chart. And look, the Dow, by the way, almost positive on the year, you can see. Still just slightly underwater. But here are the Transports, down 6.7%. But I'm going to put this chart on a basis uh from the April 8th low. And so that's from the bottom. You can see the Transports have been outperforming here. I'm going to give you a really quick look at today's heat map in terms of the Dow Industrials. Here's what they did. Ta-da! Just a few uh blights, Boeing and United Health. Nothing new there. And then here are the Transports. Everything in the green, led by Uber, the biggest one in terms of market cap. United Airlines one of the point winners up almost 5%. The dollar up today. What was behind that? Yeah, um really interesting. I think the European trade detente, uh at least postponement of any additional tariffs, that had a big uh deal with the dollar being up today. And this is a respite, and part of that, part of my concern has been that the US, that the world has been saying, sell dollars at any cost. Get rid of all US assets. But that was a story a month ago, uh two months ago. That has not been the story recently with this huge run-up since uh April 8th. But with the dollar up today, guess what that weighs on. And that's going to be commodities. So I'm going to show you real quickly what's been happening in commodity land today. You know, gold, we were talking about that several days last week, but it was one of the leaders to the downside today. Here, I'm just going to tap that. GC equals F down almost 2%. So we haven't seen a big decline in gold in a while. But here's the year-to-date chart. This still looks pretty bullish to me. I thought this was an M top. No, we've just got a bull flag right here, and we're just kind of zigzagging down. Uh need to find a catalyst to see if we can move up again. 3,500 is a big round number there. But today, the story in commodities is for the most part, they were sold. Should we do a final peek at Bitcoin? Yeah. Yes, sir. Uh let's just do that real quick because 110,000 has been kind of a sticking point. Um and we, if you look at the five day, you can see the record highs from 111, 112,000 last week, but we are right there. Here's the year to date. Now, I'll show you how bullish this chart looks after having eclipsed these highs from earlier in the year. So we'll see. Can Bitcoin finally lead equities to new highs as well? Stay tuned. Stay tuned. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks plummet for a second day
The Wall Street rout continues. All of the major indexes (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) opened sharply lower after China announced it will put a 34% tariff on US goods. Morning Brief Anchor Julie Hyman and Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre break down the action at the open. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. That is the opening bell. Let's do a check of the markets on what looks to be another day of deep selling based on now what is the second day of overhang from President Trump's tariff announcement. And now the news this morning that China is imposing 34% tariffs on US imports into that country. So, expecting to see more selling today. Uh, the Dow off 960 points here out of the gate. We should mention, of course, we also got a jobs report this morning, which showed 225,000 jobs added to the US economy. So we saw a better number than expected, but nonetheless, still seeing the Dow take a hit here because the emphasis does remain on the tariffs. The S&P 500 down 2 and a half%, the Nasdaq down 3%. And I want to take a quick look at some of the two-day numbers as well, just to show the depth of the selling that we've seen over two days. The Nasdaq down 8.7% over the past couple of days. The S&P 500 down 7% over the past few days. Jared Blickery watching the opening action, although I know Jared, you're also going to be focusing closely on what happens at the end of the session as well. Yes, exactly, Julie, because a lot of times after the payroll report, we get an initial move and then we kind of zigzag a bit, with the end effect that we reverse into the close. Doesn't always happen, but it happens enough that we should be cognizant and maybe hope for that possibility. So, as you were leaving off on the two-day here, I'm going to mention stocks are in the midst of their worst two-day slump since the pandemic, and many stock indices and sectors and individual stocks had their worst day since the pandemic yesterday. A few more stats, Nasdaq just had its first 1,000 point sell-off yesterday, and the Russell 2000, the small caps, I'll pull that up on the screen with the two-day. That has fallen into a bear market as of yesterday, and also the Dow Transports, the Dow Transportation Index. So here, the Dow Transports down 11 and a half%, and they've been a leading indicator. Don't talk about them all the time, but they have been important to watch, and they've been leading down. Here's the VIX. I was tracking this earlier up to 37. Let me just check the high here. It's 45.56. That is pretty elevated, not quite the highs that we saw in Yenmageddon last year in August, and that was kind of a one-off event. But my problem with the volatility readings is they just seem really comfortable hanging out at these elevated levels. Here's a 10-year T-note yield. That is down 15 basis points. Over the last two days, it is down 27 basis points. That is just a jaw-dropping amount, and we can see this is easily the lowest levels of the year. You have to go back to September, October of last year to find that comp. And let's skip over to see what's happening in sectors, and everything in the red here. Energy leading to the downside, and utilities less bad off than the rest, and so is staples. Some of those defensives, not as bad as the rest, but still getting sold off. I think it was staples that was in the green yesterday, and you can see over these last two days now, it's exactly flat. Energy is down 11.3%. I'm going to get to crude in a bit, but first I want to go to the Nasdaq 100 so we can see what the Mag 7 are up to. And there's a roundhill Mag 7 ETF that is had its worst day ever yesterday. And you can see the carnage today. Let me just flip that over to a two-day again so you can see some of the moves that we're talking about. Apple down 3% this morning, so is Nvidia, meta, and Amazon down 5%, and the two-day total is going to look worse if they punch up here. Uh, looks like doesn't want to cooperate, so I'm going to move on to China. China has been a bright spot, but unfortunately, and this is a two-day, there is the Nasdaq 100 showing Apple down 12%. But here's China. This is showing a lot of red, and this is important because China has been a green spot. It has been a bright spot this year, and we're finally seeing some carnage this morning. Yesterday wasn't bad, looking a lot worse today. So maybe this is a global risk off move that we are in right now. Got to go over to futures so we can check out the movements in crude oil. Crude oil is selling off the most since 2022, another story of a big two-day tumble. This is the overnight price action. I'll show you the year to date so you can see how it's just kind of fallen off a cliff here. There's your, there's your cliff line there. And if I put a one-year chart, you can see, or maybe not. I'll try to get a longer one there. When's the last time we were at these levels? It's been quite a while. It hasn't been even three years. So 61.75, you're looking for lower gas prices, that's a good thing. But I don't think the Fed, J. Powell over at the Fed has any additional reason today looking at this report to say we got to cut. So that could be an issue for the markets. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dow Transports index slump poses trouble spot as investors seek stocks stability
By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) - Even as U.S. stocks seek to regain their footing, weakness in a closely followed index of transportation shares is a sign of growing investor worries about the economy. The S&P 500 as of Thursday was on pace to post a weekly gain after four straight negative weeks. The benchmark index was clawing back after it marked a correction last week by ending down over 10% from its February record high. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was little changed for the week, but the 20-stock index has been pummeled recently. The gauge of airlines, truckers, rail companies, package delivery giants and other transport firms has slumped over 17% from its November all-time closing peak. "The transports are an important tell on future economic activity," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer of Horizon Investment Services. "The fact that they have significantly underperformed ... gives me pause." The Dow Transports is struggling as investors are concerned about an economic slowdown, driven in part by uncertainty over the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's back-and-forth tariff policies. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast this year to 1.7% from 2.1%, with central bank Chair Jerome Powell pointing to "unusually elevated" uncertainty. So far in 2025, the Dow Transports are down about 8%, doubling the drop for the S&P 500 index in that time. Weakness within the index has been broad. This year, shares of package delivery companies FedEx and United Parcel Service are down 12% and 7%, respectively. Trucking stocks Landstar and JB Hunt Transport Services are both off over 13%. Shares of airlines, some of which recently cut their earnings estimates, have been hit particularly hard. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines Holdings have tumbled over 20% in 2025, while American Airlines has dropped 35%. With many companies in the index involved in shipping products around the country, the Dow transports index offers insight into consumer spending, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "It's still an important indicator for the strength of the economic growth because it's an indicator of the level of strength of the consumer," Maley said. The index's slide is "supporting a lot of the weaker data that we've been seeing and supporting the lowering of expectations of economic growth around Wall Street," Maley said. Some investors track the transports index in concert with the Dow Jones Industrial Average to determine the overall trend of the market, known as "Dow Theory." The Dow industrials index is down 1% in 2025 and about 7% from its December record high. Aside from the Dow Transports, other indexes that investors cite as signals for the broader market or economy have posted steep declines. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller companies generally seen as particularly sensitive to the domestic economy's strength, is down 15% from its 52-week high in November. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index is down 22% from its July record peak. Semiconductors are key components in a broad array of products, so chipmakers are closely followed for insight into the economy. "They are all telling you the same message: There is potentially weakness underneath the hood of the U.S. economy," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. A number of reports in the coming week will give a fresh read into the economy, including releases on consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. A key gauge of inflation, the monthly personal consumption expenditures price index, is due on March 28. Tariffs will remain in the spotlight for Wall Street, with the Trump administration planning reciprocal tariffs on April 2 to rebalance the global trading system. Heading into that deadline, the transportation stocks could be particularly volatile, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. "They're at the center of the concerns investors have over tariffs and the potential for a slowing economy."
Reuters
21-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Wall St Week Ahead: Dow Transports index slump poses trouble spot as investors seek stocks stability
NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Even as U.S. stocks seek to regain their footing, weakness in a closely followed index of transportation shares is a sign of growing investor worries about the economy. The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab as of Thursday was on pace to post a weekly gain after four straight negative weeks. The benchmark index was clawing back after it marked a correction last week by ending down over 10% from its February record high. here. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (.DJT), opens new tab was little changed for the week, but the 20-stock index has been pummeled recently. The gauge of airlines, truckers, rail companies, package delivery giants and other transport firms has slumped over 17% from its November all-time closing peak. "The transports are an important tell on future economic activity," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer of Horizon Investment Services. "The fact that they have significantly underperformed ... gives me pause." The Dow Transports is struggling as investors are concerned about an economic slowdown, driven in part by uncertainty over the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's back-and-forth tariff policies. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast this year to 1.7% from 2.1%, with central bank Chair Jerome Powell pointing to "unusually elevated" uncertainty. So far in 2025, the Dow Transports are down about 8%, doubling the drop for the S&P 500 index in that time. Weakness within the index has been broad. This year, shares of package delivery companies FedEx (FDX.N), opens new tab and United Parcel Service (UPS.N), opens new tab are down 12% and 7%, respectively. Trucking stocks Landstar (LSTR.O), opens new tab and JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.O), opens new tab are both off over 13%. Shares of airlines, some of which recently cut their earnings estimates, have been hit particularly hard. Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), opens new tab and United Airlines Holdings (UAL.O), opens new tab have tumbled over 20% in 2025, while American Airlines (AAL.O), opens new tab has dropped 35%. With many companies in the index involved in shipping products around the country, the Dow transports index offers insight into consumer spending, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "It's still an important indicator for the strength of the economic growth because it's an indicator of the level of strength of the consumer," Maley said. The index's slide is "supporting a lot of the weaker data that we've been seeing and supporting the lowering of expectations of economic growth around Wall Street," Maley said. Some investors track the transports index in concert with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab to determine the overall trend of the market, known as "Dow Theory." The Dow industrials index is down 1% in 2025 and about 7% from its December record high. Aside from the Dow Transports, other indexes that investors cite as signals for the broader market or economy have posted steep declines. The Russell 2000 (.RUT), opens new tab, an index of smaller companies generally seen as particularly sensitive to the domestic economy's strength, is down 15% from its 52-week high in November. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX), opens new tab is down 22% from its July record peak. Semiconductors are key components in a broad array of products, so chipmakers are closely followed for insight into the economy. "They are all telling you the same message: There is potentially weakness underneath the hood of the U.S. economy," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. A number of reports in the coming week will give a fresh read into the economy, including releases on consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. A key gauge of inflation, the monthly personal consumption expenditures price index, is due on March 28. Tariffs will remain in the spotlight for Wall Street, with the Trump administration planning reciprocal tariffs on April 2 to rebalance the global trading system. Heading into that deadline, the transportation stocks could be particularly volatile, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. "They're at the center of the concerns investors have over tariffs and the potential for a slowing economy."
