21-05-2025
Migrant crossings to hit record high, warns leading data scientist
Illegal Channel crossings by migrants are on course to hit a record total this year, according to new modelling.
Based on current weather trends, researcher Dr Richard Wood has forecast arrivals will hit nearly 46,000 this year, which will be on a par with 2022's record and 20 per cent up on last year's total.
A data scientist specialising in forecasts for real world scenarios, Dr Wood has drawn up modelling based on key factors that influence the number of crossings including weather and sea conditions, Government policies and illegal migration into the EU over the past five years.
His modelling, based on data from 2020 to 2024, has already accurately forecast the record crossings this year. He predicted 12,074 by May 15. The Home Office figure for the same day was 12,699, 31 per cent up on last year. If the weather stays favourable, his modelling says it will hit 45,651 this year, equalling 2022's record of 45,755.
'If such a trend continues, we would expect between 45,000 and 50,000 crossings this year,' said Dr Wood, who has a PhD in maths and has published 50 peer-reviewed academic papers, mostly on statistical modelling real world scenarios.
Such record numbers would increase pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who has pledged to 'smash the gangs' through his new border security command with new counter-terror style powers and multi-national agreements to curb the supply of migrants, boats and equipment.
It comes as two migrants died on Wednesday attempting to cross the Channel in a boat packed with 80 people. Net migration figures, to be published by the Office for National Statistics, are, however, expected to show a significant fall from its current 728,000 after a crackdown on work and study visas.
Dr Wood believed his statistical modelling could enable policymakers to understand and so plan for the 'complex interactions' between all the many factors that could drive the number of crossings.
If the favourable weather continues this year and there is high, above average illegal immigration into the EU, his modelling projected the total could rise to 54,903. If these factors were then combined with a low rejection rate for asylum seekers in the UK, the total would increase to 65,337, 44 per cent higher than 2022.
