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Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Drones Are Transforming Conflicts Across Africa
All around the world, armed Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles, or UAVs, have become a core component of modern warfare. But it was only recently that drones, as they are commonly referred to, began to feature in conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa. Two recent events demonstrate the dramatic manner in which this advanced weaponry is beginning to shape those conflicts. The first is last month's deadly drone-coordinated attacks by Islamist insurgents against two military installations in West Africa's Lake Chad Basin region, killing at least 16 Nigerian and Cameroonian soldiers. The second is the ongoing diplomatic row between Mali and Algeria over the latter's downing earlier this month of a Malian drone operating in Algerian airspace while attacking insurgents and terrorists plaguing Mali's northern border region. Both incidents highlight the ways in which unregulated access to cheap but combat-efficient UAVs is adding a new and dangerous element to conflicts in Africa. Since 2018, several African countries have been stockpiling medium-altitude long-endurance, or MALE, combat drones, typified by the Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar and Chinese-made Wing Loong. This proliferation has been driven primarily by cash-strapped African governments with poorly equipped armies seeking to acquire aerial capabilities, in order to tilt the balance of military power their way in the series of conflicts raging in the region. These models and others like them offer a low-cost option to do so, with no strings attached. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. Because of the United States' strict export controls on UAVs, often tied to a purchasing government's human rights record, African states have mostly turned toward drone producers such as Turkey and China, but also the United Arab Emirates and Iran, all of which offer combat-tested UAVs without hamstringing their use over such concerns. Their models are also significantly cheaper compared to the more expensive U.S.-made MQ-9 Reaper, which goes for around $30 million. By contrast, Turkey's Bayraktars reportedly sell for between $2 million and $5 million per unit, while the Chinese-made Wing Loong goes for around $1 million. These cheap MALE drones have enabled government forces in Mali, Sudan and Ethiopia to attack insurgent troops with devastating effect, while incurring fewer losses themselves and at a fraction of the cost of attack helicopters or fighter jets. At the same time, however, their use in Africa's conflict zones has also led to high collateral damage. According to a new report by Drone Wars UK analyzing more than 50 incidents from November 2021 to November 2024, drone use in six African countries caused nearly 1,000 deaths, mostly of civilians. The worst incident occurred in December 2023, when a drone operated by the Nigeran military struck a religious gathering in Kaduna state, killing 85. These examples, like those from the U.S. military's decadeslong use of drones in Afghanistan, Somalia and Yemen, call into question combat drones' touted precision strike capabilities, further puncturing their myth as a gamechanger in modern warfare. However, they also reflect Africa's unique circumstances, for which modern drones may not be well-suited. For example, most of the region's violent conflicts are fought as irregular and asymmetrical warfare between state and nonstate actors. Insurgent groups like Jama'at Nasr al-Islam Wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, in the Sahel and the Islamic State of West Africa Province, or ISWAP, in the Lake Chad Basin area are extremely mobile fighting forces that often embed themselves among civilian populations, from which they move swiftly on motorcycles to launch ambushes and surprise attacks. This introduces a complex dynamic that makes it difficult to distinguish friend from foe, especially from the sky. Additionally, Africa's rugged terrain presents numerous challenges to aerial technology. East and West Africa are both densely forested and mountainous, offering ample concealment opportunities for insurgent forces often camped out in the bush, limiting drones' effectiveness. Even the open terrain of North Africa is prone to frequent cloud cover and sandstorms that in turn hamper the use of reconnaissance and attack drones. And in Sudan, where both the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, have deployed combat drones in that country's civil war, the vastness of the shifting frontline has proved challenging for drones' ability to easily collect and respond to reliable intelligence. But with nonstate armed groups now beginning to acquire combat drones to enhance their own operational capacity, the implications for both government forces and civilian populations have become even more dire. The same affordability that makes drone technologies more accessible to governments also makes them more accessible to insurgents, especially when it comes to commercial drones repurposed for use in combat operations. Off-the-shelf models like quadcopters or the DJI Phantom can easily be modified into weapons-delivery systems with minimal technical expertise. Insurgents are also known to have acquired military-grade drones through battlefield seizures and smuggling routes. That has allowed armed groups like Al-Shabaab in Somalia, JNIM in the Sahel and the Islamic State affiliate Ahlu Sunna wal-Jama'a in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province to level the playing field in their confrontation with government forces. In the long run, this evolution in insurgent tactics and sophistication can result in significant battlefield advantages across the various conflict zones in sub-Saharan Africa. But it also serves as a force-multiplier for potential mass-casualty attacks as well as strategic strikes targeting critical infrastructure, such as airports, dams and power plants far away from the frontlines. As a result, this development marks an entirely new era in conflict on the continent, one that raises questions about how regional forces, often lacking counter-drone technology, can respond to protect themselves and civilians. It also underscores the need for more effective mechanisms by the African Union as well as regional blocs to regulate the proliferation and transfer of UAVs and their associated technologies. At the moment, laws regulating the use of hobbyist commercial drones exist in a number of African nations, but comprehensive regulations to address combat drone proliferation, particularly in the context of security and conflict, are still weak. African states, both unilaterally and on a subregional and continental level, need to develop more effective regulations that are firm enough to limit access by insurgent groups to these strategic technologies, while balancing security concerns with the legitimate use of drones for various benign purposes, including farming and delivering humanitarian aid. The same holds true for the rest of the world, which continues to exhibit a shocking lack of comprehensive and robust international regulatory mechanisms to govern the export and use of drones in general, and armed UAVs in particular. Despite the threat they pose, there is no single, globally binding treaty that directly regulates the proliferation of attack drones. With the sole exception of the Arms Trade Treaty, or ATT, none of the regulatory regimes that exist—such as the Cold War-era Missile Technology Control Regime, the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, the Wassenaar Arrangement or the more recent Berlin Memorandum—is legally binding, with their implementation relying only on cooperation and voluntary compliance. This has failed to stop the proliferation of armed drones, because even when countries like the U.S restrict the sales of their combat drones by citing the Missile Technology Control Regime, there are more than 30 other nations that have already developed armed drones or are in the process of doing so. This includes leading players in the global drone market, like China, Turkey and Iran, that are not signatories of these agreements and therefore not bound by their voluntary ethical obligations. The situation in Africa underscores the need for a more stringent rules-based system to guide and control the proliferation of armed drones, as well as the need for measures to deter noncompliance by drone producers and suppliers. Without this, the growing ubiquity of armed drones in Africa's conflict zones risks escalating the collateral costs of war beyond their already unacceptable levels, while plunging the continent deeper into instability. Zikora Ibeh is a development advocate, freelance journalist and researcher. The post Drones Are Transforming Conflicts Across Africa appeared first on World Politics Review.
Al Jazeera
11-03-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
How drones killed nearly 1,000 civilians in Africa in three years
The use of drones by several African countries in their fight against armed groups is causing significant harm to civilians, according to a new report. More than 943 civilians have been killed in at least 50 incidents across six African countries from November 2021 to November 2024, according to the report by Drone Wars UK. The report, titled Death on Delivery, reveals that strikes regularly fail to distinguish between civilians and combatants in their operations. Experts told Al Jazeera that the death toll is likely only the tip of the iceberg because many countries run secretive drone campaigns. As drones rapidly become the weapon of choice for governments across the continent, what are the consequences for civilians in conflict zones? Is it time for the world to regulate the sale of drones? What explains the surge in drone acquisitions by African nations? The report highlights how the number of African nations acquiring armed drones, specifically Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) drones, has increased dramatically in recent years. Since 2022, at least 10 African countries have obtained these weapons with governments justifying their purchases as a means to combat rebellions and security threats. However, the reality on the ground has often been different with many strikes leading to mass civilian casualties, raising concerns about human rights violations. Cora Morris, the report's author, said drones have been marketed as an 'efficient' and modern way to conduct warfare with minimal risk to military personnel. But in reality, that's not always true as civilian casualties have mounted. Morris said drones 'significantly lower the threshold for the use of force, making it much easier for armies to deploy munitions without risk to their own forces'. 'The result of this has been a grave civilian toll,' she told Al Jazeera. The proliferation of drones has also been fuelled by geopolitical shifts as African governments seek greater military self-reliance and turn to new suppliers willing to sell without stringent conditions. Michael Spagat, head of the department of economics at Royal Holloway University of London, sees the trend as primarily driven by economics. 'Buying drones has become a cheap way for states to acquire significant firepower. Drones have the additional advantage that attackers don't have to worry about pilots getting killed,' Spagat told Al Jazeera. 'You don't have to invest in training people you might lose.' He also said this trend is likely just at its beginning. 'Some countries may still be getting up to speed on the use of their drones, and at some point, we'll start hearing about nonstate groups using potent drones,' he warned. 'These are still fairly advanced technologies, but I doubt it will stay like this forever,' he added. While the report primarily examines the consequences of the use of drones in Africa, it also touches on the key suppliers fuelling this surge. Turkiye, China and Iran have emerged as the dominant exporters, the report found, and supply a range of drone systems to African nations. Morris said the role of actors like Turkiye and China, which have been willing to supply drones 'relatively cheaply with little concern for how they are to be used', means that these weapons have proliferated rapidly in the past few years, particularly to states fighting armed groups. Which countries were investigated? The report identifies six key nations where the use of drones has had a particularly deadly impact: Sudan Drones have been used extensively in Sudan's ongoing civil war with reports of strikes hitting civilian infrastructure, including markets and residential areas. Both warring sides – Sudan's military and its Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group – have used drones. The country has long been a battleground for drone warfare, primarily driven by operations targeting al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabab. However, civilian deaths have been alarmingly frequent, raising concerns over the precision and intelligence behind these strikes. The United States military's Africa Command has conducted hundreds of air strikes in Somalia that it said targeted al-Shabab fighters but also ended up killing civilians in so-called collateral damage. Nigeria The Nigerian government has employed drones in its fight against Boko Haram and other armed groups. Yet there have been multiple instances of strikes on civilians, including in December 2023 when a drone attack hit a group of people observing a Muslim celebration in Tudun Biri in Kaduna State. Burkina Faso Conflict in Burkina Faso began to intensify around 2015 as armed group activity spilled over from neighbouring Mali. It is part of a wider regional crisis in the Sahel. Mali Both Mali and Burkina Faso have ramped up their use of drones against armed groups. But these strikes have repeatedly resulted in civilian casualties. Ethiopia The Ethiopian government has increasingly relied on drones in its fight against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Multiple strikes on refugee camps and marketplaces have led to widespread condemnation. Human rights organisations and the United Nations have decried the lack of accountability. What have been some of the deadliest strikes? The impact has been devastating with several strikes leading to significant losses of civilian lives. Among the most tragic incidents documented in the report are: Nigeria, December 2023: The drone strike in Tudun Biri village meant to target fighters from an armed group instead hit a crowd of Muslims observing the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad, killing 85 people. A government statement said the civilian toll was the result of an incorrect analysis. Ethiopia, 2022-2023: An attack in October 2022 on residents in Oromia's Ofu Bekke village killed at least 86 people. The report said government forces had intensified drone attacks after a growing number of Oromo Liberation Army fighters were reported in the area. It added that in the weeks that followed the initial attack, at least a dozen further drone strikes were carried out on the Oromia region with casualties reported in at least 10 of these strikes. Somalia, March 2024: Two drone strikes that hit southern Somalia's Jaffey Farm and nearby Bagdad village killed at least 23 people in an incident that drew a widespread outcry and calls for accountability. Families of the victims described the incident as a massacre while a statement by Somalia's government claimed all who were killed were 'terrorists', refusing to acknowledge harm done to civilians, according to the report. Burkina Faso, August 2023: A drone strike by the Burkinabe military hit a market in Bouro village, killing at least 28 people. The incident is just one that exposes 'erratic bombings of innocent communities which sow only further destruction and insecurity', the report said. Sudan, September 2023: A drone attack on the Goro market in Khartoum killed at least 46 people. Reports and witness statements suggested the attack was carried out by drones or military aircraft believed to be affiliated with Sudan's military. Morris said there is 'an obvious unwillingness to properly investigate claims of civilian casualties', adding that 'the mounting scale of civilian harm worldwide betrays a wholesale failure to take seriously the loss of civilian life. 'This is altogether more brazen where the use of drones is concerned with a concerning normalisation of civilian death accompanying their proliferation,' she said. Does the sale of drones require better oversight and regulation? The report emphasises the urgent need for greater oversight and regulation of drone use amid a rapid expansion of drone warfare worldwide. In the past 10 years, the number of countries operating drones has gone up from four to 48, according to the report. It said three main international arms control agreements currently apply to the export of armed drones but they all have 'significant weaknesses'. In its recommendations, the report's author urged the international community to move rapidly towards establishing a new international control regime focused on the prevention of harm arising from the proliferation of armed uncrewed systems. Morris and Spagat agreed that drone warfare is only going to expand. 'I do think that the use of drones is going to grow quite substantially and possibly proliferate to nonstate groups,' Spagat said.
The Guardian
10-03-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Drone attacks killing hundreds of civilians across Africa, says report
Almost 1,000 civilians have been killed and hundreds more injured in military drone attacks across Africa as the proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles continues unchecked on the continent, according to a report. At least 50 separate deadly strikes by armed forces in Africa have been confirmed during the three years up to November 2024, with analysts describing a 'striking pattern of civilian harm' with little or no accountability. Although the rapid growth of armed drones deployed by Ukraine and Russia receives significant scrutiny, scant focus is being paid to the escalating use in Africa of a new breed of imported cheaper drones, such as Turkey's Bayraktar TB2, said Cora Morris of campaign group Drone Wars UK, which on Monday published a report on the growth of armed drones in Africa, called Death on Delivery. 'This must change. Unless the international community moves rapidly towards developing and implementing a new control regime, we are highly likely to see more examples of the killing of civilians from the use of armed drones,' said Morris. So far, the use of armed drones has been confirmed in at least six conflicts in Africa: Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ethiopia, where most attacks were seen. Drone strikes by the Ethiopian armed forces against adversaries such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front were found to have killed more than 490 civilians in 26 separate attacks. Elsewhere, at least 64 civilians died in nine separate drone strikes conducted by Malian armed forces battling separatist groups in the north of the country. In neighbouring Burkina Faso, researchers found more than 100 civilians have been killed in drone strikes carried out by the country's military. The Drone Wars UK report said the failure to control the proliferation of armed drones in Africa had led to more than 940 civilians being killed since November 2021, a figure it described as conservative. Most armed drones in Africa are imported from Turkey, along with China and Iran, with researchers sounding the alarm over the growing popularity of 'medium altitude, long endurance' (MALE) drones. These can be flown remotely for many hours over a large distance, conducting surveillance as well as airstrikes. The proliferation – and risks – of armed drones in African conflicts has been witnessed in Sudan's civil war with their use in highly populated areas such as markets in the capital, Khartoum, having 'grave' consequences for civilians. Iranian, Chinese and Turkish drones have been deployed by the Sudanese military while its adversary – the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – has used UAE-supplied drones, the report said. In Burkina Faso, Bayraktar TB2s have been deployed by Burkinabè military forces in their struggle against a jihadist insurgency. State-sponsored media regularly celebrated 'neutralisations' of terrorists using what it described as sophisticated, precise drone technologies. However, accounts from sources on the ground often yield a different narrative, pointing to frequently high civilian deaths. One incident in the country's Sahel region in August 2023, saw drones strike a market in the village of Bouro, killing at least 28 civilians. The report said: 'The Burkinabè government's wholesale celebration of strikes like that on Bouro's market rests upon a perception of drone warfare as an efficient, advanced development in the country's military operations, signifying a technically sophisticated arsenal operated by a vigilant, effective government with a firm grip on its territories. 'However, on-the-ground research quickly reveals the falsity of this picture: exposing erratic bombings of innocent communities, which sow only further destruction and insecurity.'
