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Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
UK Military Rhetoric Doesn't Match Fiscal Reality
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Not long before World War I, HMS Dreadnought, a battleship that made all existing vessels obsolete, was launched at Portsmouth in the presence of the King-Emperor Edward VII. Fire-breathing patriots soon took up the cry, 'We want eight and we won't wait.' Winston Churchill, then a young home secretary in a government committed to spending more on welfare, wryly noted of the popular clamor for a naval race with Germany: 'The Admiralty had demanded six ships; the economists offered four; and we finally compromised on eight.' British debates about defense spending follow a familiar trajectory, although this time it's politicians, rather than civilians, insisting that more should be spent on firepower. A military revolution in warfare is underway, too. Drones, off-the-shelf technology far cheaper than Dreadnoughts, are being deployed to lethal effect on the battlefields of Ukraine and further afield - the daring 'Spider Web' raid last weekend destroyed as much as a third of Russia's strategic bombing force based thousands of miles away from Europe. But the UK needs to replace expensive military hardware too, and make good shortages of munitions. Economists fear the government can't afford the outlay without large tax increases. Who will prevail? In a speech prior to the publication of his government's Strategic Defence Review (SDR) this week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer sounded eerily reminiscent of an old-fashioned jingoist, circa 1914. Britain, he said, faces a threat 'more serious, more immediate and more unpredictable than at any time since the Cold War.' The UK needs to move to 'war-fighting readiness.' Alas, reality and rhetoric don't match. UK defense spending is planned to rise to only 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2027, with a notional ambition to reach 3% by the mid-2030s. In the 1980s, at the end of the Cold War, it stood at almost 4%. When the dogged Defence Secretary John Healey attempted to impose a fixed timeline for a bigger military budget, he was immediately slapped down by the Treasury. Within days, however, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization trumped Starmer. The Western Alliance has reached near consensus on a 5% commitment, with 3.5% going directly on the armed services and a further 1.5% on related spending. On Thursday, US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth, ordered Starmer to saddle up, saying 'it is important that the UK gets there.' On Tuesday, German Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius talked of raising expenditure by annual increments to reach 5% of GDP, aimed at creating the strongest conventional army in Europe. At home, the popular hue and cry is not for an arms race with Russia, which remains a niche preoccupation at Westminster and in security circles, but for reversing cuts to pensioners' winter-fuel allowances. Labour's backbenchers oppose projected welfare reductions. Meanwhile, the economists warn that the bond market won't countenance more borrowing to pay for guns or butter - gilt yields remain elevated amid jitters over the Trump administration's ballooning deficit. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves rules out raising taxes in the autumn — though few believe her. Something's got to give. UK prime ministers have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering on military commitments. Starmer's Conservative predecessors squandered the Cold War peace dividend for over a decade even as Russia rearmed and attacked its neighbors. Wishful thinking can also lead to embarrassment. Starmer recently proclaimed 'a coalition of the willing' ready to take the place of the US in policing a ceasefire in Ukraine by dispatching a 'reassurance force.' Washington, however, refused to offer air cover — and in any case the British army has shrunk to 70,000, levels last seen before the war with Napoleon — so the UK can no longer assemble an expeditionary force. The best it can offer Ukraine is a support mission. As for crippling the Russian war effort, the UK, like other European nations, sanctioned Russian oil and gas after its invasion of Ukraine. But according to a new study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the value of Russian crude oil and liquid natural gas shipped under British ownership or insurance since the war began tops £200 billion ($270 billion). A dark fleet of ships working for the Russians supplements the trade. The government is wary of severing these links for fear of triggering another energy price rise spiral and a round of the ruinous inflation and cost of living crisis that sank its Tory predecessor. To be fair, the SDR has met a mostly warm reception from military specialists. At least it puts the focus back on the European theater — previous reviews suggested fanciful scenarios in which British aircraft carriers, without a full complement of aircraft and naval escorts, might be deployed to Asia. With commendable honesty, the authors of this week's report also own up to 'the hollowing out of the Armed Forces warfighting capability' and cite inadequate stockpiles of munitions after years of 'underinvestment.' Without a rapid improvement in military housing and in the absence of conscription, army numbers are unlikely to rise. With its suggestion that the UK should build up its maritime forces — namely the Trident nuclear deterrent and the commissioning of 12 new attack submarines — the SDR implies the UK is set on going back to a strategic stance familiar to Churchill and his contemporaries in 1914, known to historians as the British Way of Warfare, avoiding a continental military commitment at scale. Today, however, the Royal Navy no longer rules the waves as it did in 1914. That means cutting back on the rhetoric and working closely with allies to deploy the few troops available for land-based conflict. 'This is a once-in-a-generation inflection point for collective security in Europe,' concludes the SDR. Unless British public opinion changes, however, the UK's neglect of its military needs and obligations looks set to continue. More from Bloomberg Opinion: This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Martin Ivens is the editor of the Times Literary Supplement. Previously, he was editor of the Sunday Times of London and its chief political commentator. More stories like this are available on

ABC News
4 days ago
- General
- ABC News
Tasmania Devils' Kath McCann gets emotional over what this is doing to her team's future
Photo shows Ukraine Drone Strike: Screengrab shows a small drone hovering above a truck's trailer with a plume of smoke in the background. Has Video Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds . 1 m 41 s


Al Arabiya
5 days ago
- General
- Al Arabiya
Kremlin says Putin was updated about Ukrainian strikes on air bases in real time
The Kremlin, asked on Tuesday about a series of Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases on Sunday, said that President Vladimir Putin was kept updated on the attacks in real time, and that an investigation was under way. Ukraine has said that it used drones to attack the bases, some of which were located thousands of miles from its territory in Siberia, hitting 41 Russian war planes. Reuters could not verify the number of aircraft struck.


The Verge
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Verge
Ukraine's drone strike isn't just an attack — it's first-person warfare
Ukraine launched a surprise attack on Russia that targeted more than 40 of the country's military aircraft on Sunday. The mission, called Operation Spiderweb, involved sending 117 drones over Russia's borders and into several of its airfields. It was the Ukrainian military's longest-ranged attack yet, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but it also pulls back the curtain on an elaborate campaign to put raw footage of the strike in front of a global audience. Within just hours, three videos of the strike spread from Ukraine's federal security agency to a journalist based in the country, later spilling into social media and news outlets worldwide. The videos appear to be filmed from the perspective of a drone, complete with an overlay of information about the drone's telemetry. In one video, the drone flies over an airfield, passing clouds of dark gray smoke billowing from multiple warplanes. Another clip apparently captures the moment a plane explodes into a tower of flames. The third shows a drone descending toward an aircraft, with the video suddenly freezing and displaying the message 'Warning no data' upon reaching the plane. The Ukrainian government would later report that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed as a result of the strike, making up 34 percent of Russia's strategic cruise-missile carriers, according to The New York Times. The strikes targeted multiple airfields across Russia. On top of the damage to Russian forces, the dissemination of the videos was a clear goal of the mission. This isn't the first time Ukraine has shared raw footage of its attacks to shine a spotlight on the war, but it's perhaps one of the most stunning and fast-spreading examples so far. The video clips apparently came from sources inside Ukraine's national security agency, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU). Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Glagola seemed to be one of the first to share them, writing in a post on Telegram (machine-translated by The Verge) that he had obtained footage of the drone strike from sources inside the SSU. Glagola later followed up with several images, including one showing several drones lined up in preparation for the attack. The New York Times reposted the clips with Glagola's watermarks, while other outlets, like The Associated Press and the BBC, wrote that they obtained copies from sources within the SSU. Meanwhile, the videos spread quickly on social media, with users reposting and sharing them across X, Bluesky, and Reddit. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine has kept the entire world updated through social media. Early on, Zelenskyy went viral for posting selfie videos of himself in Ukraine's capital city Kyiv following Russia's attacks. Those efforts escalated as the war progressed, with both Zelenskyy and Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi amassing large followings on X, where they both frequently share information about the country's war efforts. The country's campaign has also helped Ukraine raise millions and even recruit a global 'IT Army' to help defend the country against cyberattacks. Ukraine has maintained support in Europe, but it's facing pressure from President Donald Trump to end the war — including during a hostile meeting with Zelenskyy that Trump deemed 'great television.' A first-person view of a fiery strike on Russia, though, is far more eye-catching.


The Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
AI, drones and missile defence investment part of UK new defence plans
Artificial intelligence, drones and a £1 billion investment in homeland missile defence are all part of the plans to keep the UK safe in the face of threats from Vladimir Putin's Russia and the rise of China. There should be room for a 'small uplift' in the number of full-time Army soldiers, and personnel in back-office roles released to 'front line roles' under the recommendations of the Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Defence Secretary John Healey has pledged to 'create a British Army that is 10 times more lethal' through software and long-range weapons, and committed to delivering 'the best kit and technology into the hands of our frontline forces'. The 'transformation' signalled by the SDR marks the 'most profound change for about 150 years in how you think about armies, navies and air force,' one of the authors of the review, General Sir Richard Barrons, said on Monday. The military have been told that 'an immediate priority' should be a 'shift towards greater use of autonomy and artificial intelligence', while the Army should be prepared to operate with 'a 20-40-40' mix between crewed systems, 'reusable' tech such as drones, and 'consumables' such as rockets, shells and missiles. Mr Healey has also pledged to 'protect the UK homeland' with 'up to £1 billion new funding invested in homeland air and missile defence'. Last month the Defence Secretary announced that casualties from drones in the war between Russia and Ukraine outnumber those inflicted by artillery, as he estimated that '70%-80% of battlefield casualties are now caused and inflicted by drones.' Sir Keir Starmer said that the UK will move to 'war fighting readiness', ahead of the review which he said would create a 'battle-ready, armour clad' nation. He also said he was '100% confident' the plans in the new strategic defence review – including extra attack submarines, £15 billion on nuclear warheads and thousands of new long-range weapons – could be delivered on current funding plans. The report has been produced in the context of the Government's pledge to increase defence spending earlier this year, but ministers have been warned that the 'turbulent times' we are living in mean that 'it may be necessary to go faster'. 'The plan we have put forward can be accelerated for either greater assurance or for mobilisation of defence in a crisis,' the authors say. Speaking in Scotland earlier on Monday, the Prime Minister said: 'When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready, and frankly show them that we're ready to deliver peace through strength.' The Government has pledged to accept all 62 recommendations in the review, which says that there is 'no scope' to reduce the number of regulars in the Army, RAF or Navy. The authors envisage 'an increase in the total number of Regular personnel when funding allows' with a 'small uplift in Army Regulars as a priority'. They also advocate an expansion in the cadet forces by 30% by 2030, with an overall of 250,000 signed up in the longer term. According to the MoD, as of April 2024 there were 'over 139,000 young people and 26,000 adult volunteers' across cadet units in the UK. Grasping AI and automation technology could also see thousands of military personnel and civil servants in jobs such as HR and finance 'move into front-line roles'. The review has been undertaken by former commander of the joint forces command General Sir Richard, alongside defence adviser Dr Fiona Hill, and former Nato general secretary Lord Robertson of Port Ellen. The report also lays bare the potential impacts on the UK's way of life in the event of a war. The authors say that as well as attacks on military bases in the UK and overseas, there could be missile attacks targeted at military and critical national infrastructure in the UK, as well as increased cyber attacks. There could also be attempts to disrupt the economy – particularly industries that support the armed forces – as well as efforts to manipulate false information and to try and undermine social cohesion. Britain is already subject to 'daily' attacks, according to the review, 'targeting its critical national infrastructure, testing its vulnerabilities as an open economy and global trading nation'. The review comes as the UK and allies are facing changing threats across the globe, amid Russia's continuing war in Ukraine. The authors warned that 'the international chessboard has been tipped over' and the 'certainties of the international order we have accepted for so long are now being questioned'. US President Donald Trump has been pushing for European countries to dramatically increase their defence spending rather than relying on Washington to subsidise the cost of their security. He has called for a 5% spending target, while Nato general secretary Mark Rutte has reportedly asked for members to spend 3.5% on their militaries by 2032 with a further 1.5% on defence-related projects. The Government will increase defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product from April 2027 with an ambition – but no firm commitment – to increase it to 3% during the next parliament. Introducing the review, Sir Keir said that 'a step change in the threats we face demands a step change in British defence to meet them'. 'We also need to see the biggest shift in mindset in my lifetime,' he said. 'To put security front and centre, to make it the fundamental organising principle of Government.'