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Did No-One See It Coming? Lessons Of Brexit For The Trade War
Did No-One See It Coming? Lessons Of Brexit For The Trade War

Forbes

time11-04-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

Did No-One See It Coming? Lessons Of Brexit For The Trade War

SALISBURY, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 15: Britain's Queen Elizabeth II speaks with staff during a visit to ... More the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) at Porton Down science park on October 15, 2020 near Salisbury, England. The Queen and the Duke of Cambridge visited the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) where they were to view displays of weaponry and tactics used in counter intelligence, a demonstration of a Forensic Explosives Investigation and meet staff who were involved in the Salisbury Novichok incident. Her Majesty and His Royal Highness also formally opened the new Energetics Analysis Centre. (Photo by Ben Stansall -) In November 2008, in the darkest hour of the global financial crisis, Queen Elizabeth II asked an audience at the London School of Economics 'Why did no one see it coming'. We might ask the same question today in respect of Donald Trump's tariff war, where he has diminished the things that he was reputed to hold dear – the economy, the stock market and the dollar. One disturbing template that might offer insight into the path that the American economy takes is Brexit. As noted by the current prime minister of Canada, Brexit was not the solution to the problems that Britain faces. Certainly, the disengagement of the US from the world trade system is becoming as soap operatic and sometimes ludicrous as Brexit was. An even more pertinent example might be Britain at the turn of the 19th century when there was a palpable sense that the might of its empire was peaking. At the time tariffs and trade were widely debated, and leading politicians like Joseph Chamberlain proposed the idea of an 'imperial preference', a lower tariff on trade with its colonies, to create a trading zone that would buffer the rise of the US and Germany. To a certain extent, tariffs and trade became the issue of the day, but in the 1906 general election the public voted overwhelmingly for liberal, open trade (less restrictive tariffs) candidates. This I suspect was also the intention of those who supported Donald Trump in November last – keep the economy and markets strong, whilst evening up the status quo (a little). That tariff rates set by the US (and China) are at levels only last seen in the 1920's completes the shock, and rhymes with history. One reason tariffs were a popular policy tool one hundred years ago is that the fiscal side of the economy was not well developed (only a small proportion of Americans paid tax) and, in some cases, central banks did not exist. Today, tax systems are well developed and as small, open economies show, they are the best mechanism to reduce inequality, and to entice investment, both stated objectives of the Treasury secretary. This particular market crisis is interesting because it is nearly entirely man-made. Turkey has taken a similar path in recent years, all but eviscerating its bond market and currency, but these are inconsequential compared to the depth of US markets. Whilst the president has stepped nimbly and profitably (some say) away from the financial brink, he still risks contagion of his actions in a number of respects. Two such risks loom on the horizon, an economic war with China and a crisis of credibility in US financial assets. We are now led to believe that 'it was China all along', but it would have been easier to tackle China with the support of America's former allies in Canada, Japan, the UK and Europe. For its part, China has plenty of tools to respond to the US with – it can allow its currency to weaken further and through supply chain disruption can inflict higher consumer prices, shortages of goods and lower (Chinese) demand on the US. Informal boycotts of American goods, investigations of US service firms and rare earth restrictions are just a few other tools at China's disposal. Should an economic war between the US and China materialise, my sense is that a supportive response from the Federal Reserve has been made less likely by Wednesday's tariff capitulation by the White House, which demonstrates how arbitrary policy is under this administration. In the longer-run, the actions of the Trump team could manifest themselves in a capital crisis in the context of the way they have undermined confidence in the US and by extension its financial system. What the likes of Peter Navarro seem not to have grasped is that the quid pro quo of America's trade deficit is its enormous financial power – the role of the dollar and Treasuries as lynchpins of the international financial system, the dominance of US financial systems and its integral role in the fabric of capital markets, and the capital that overseas investors provide them. With Mr Trump behaving in the way that some might caricature as 'emerging market', If we apply an emerging market stock market valuation rating to US stocks, the SPX index would be half its current size for instance. Equally, the mid-week selloff in Treasuries which was most likely the result of hedge funds unwinding positions, but the poor performance of bonds underlines the sceptical view that markets are starting to take on the administration. In this context, we may be at the beginning of a great unwind of American financial power.

Britain tests hypersonic missile engine in ‘milestone' for UK defence
Britain tests hypersonic missile engine in ‘milestone' for UK defence

The Independent

time07-04-2025

  • Politics
  • The Independent

Britain tests hypersonic missile engine in ‘milestone' for UK defence

Britain has successfully tested of a new engine for hypersonic missiles in a crucial step forward for the UK's defence capabilities in light of Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. The critical research could see weapons propelled at several thousand miles an hour, a development described by defence minister John Healey as a 'milestone moment' for the UK. Research supported by the US Air Force and Nasa has produced an engine which demonstrated the capacity for high-speed air-breathing, meaning it can use oxygen in the air to propel itself rather than onboard oxygen storage. This allows a greater range on the missile than a conventional rocket alongside the increased speed. The testing was carried out as part of the Ministry of Defence 's UK's Hypersonic Weapons Programme, which hopes to support delivery of a hypersonic weapon technology demonstrator by 2030. A total of 233 static tests were carried out over six weeks at Nasa 's Langley Research Centre in Virginia, USA, by a team of researchers led by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). Multiple designs were tested across varying speeds from supersonic to hypersonic speeds, to ensure the robustness of the design, the ministry said. Mr Healey said: 'We are living in a more dangerous world and it has never been more important for us to innovate and stay ahead of our adversaries, equipping our forces with the technologies of the future. 'This milestone moment on hypersonics research, supported by British scientists and British small businesses, demonstrates another crucial area where we are working in lockstep with the United States to bolster our Armed Forces and strengthen our deterrence.' Paul Hollinshead, chief executive of Dstl, hailed the 'milestone' achievement. He said it marks a 'critical advancement in the UK's defence capabilities' which 'reinforces our standing in the AUKUS hypersonic weapon development collaboration' - referring to the trilateral security arrangement between Australia, the UK and the US. 'The success of these tests highlights the UK's commitment to technological leadership and innovation in this crucial area,' Mr Hollinshead added.

UK touts hypersonic missile test
UK touts hypersonic missile test

Russia Today

time06-04-2025

  • Politics
  • Russia Today

UK touts hypersonic missile test

UK scientists have collaborated with the US and private firms to successfully test hypersonic missile propulsion, the British Defense Ministry said in a statement on Sunday. Hypersonic missiles are projectiles that can travel at speeds at least five times the speed of sound, velocities that make them either extremely difficult or impossible to intercept using modern air defenses. Russia has introduced and deployed its own missiles of this kind during the Ukraine conflict. Successful tests of the prototype cruise missile engine will aid in arming the UK with hypersonic weapons by 2030, the ministry said. A joint team led by the UK's Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), collaborating with the US Air Force Research Laboratory and companies in the industry, have run 233 tests of the new high-speed air-breathing engine. Once completed, the propulsion system could see missiles traveling at several thousand miles per hour. READ MORE: France and UK rebrand possible military deployment to Ukraine 'We are living in a more dangerous world and it has never been more important for us to innovate and stay ahead of our adversaries,' UK Defense Secretary John Healey said in the statement. The test was part of the AUKUS military bloc's hypersonic weapons research program, according to Dstl CEO Paul Hollinshead. The bloc encompasses the US, the UK, and Australia. Last December, Washington touted a successful test of its domestic Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, developed by the Lockheed Martin Corporation. China, India, Iran, and North Korea have touted their own hypersonic weapons tests over the last several years. Tehran used its hypersonic Fattah-1 missile in its exchange of attacks with Israel last year, according to Iran. READ MORE: Russia surpasses Western Europe in defense output – UK report Moscow and Beijing have pulled ahead in the race to develop hypersonic weapons over the last decade. Russia put its first armament of the kind, the air-launched Kinzhal, into service in 2017, while China rolled out its DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle two years later. Russia has used Kinzhal and naval Zircon hypersonic missiles throughout the Ukraine conflict. Last November, Moscow carried out the first combat test of its Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, striking Ukraine's Yuzhmash military industrial facility in Dnepr.

Britain's hypersonic missile test hailed as ‘critical advance' for defence
Britain's hypersonic missile test hailed as ‘critical advance' for defence

Telegraph

time06-04-2025

  • Business
  • Telegraph

Britain's hypersonic missile test hailed as ‘critical advance' for defence

Britain has completed a successful test of a new engine for hypersonic missiles in what marks a critical step for defence in Europe. The latest UK hypersonic research, which could see weapons travelling at several thousand miles per hour, has reached a landmark moment after it was established that the new engine would power a cutting-edge hypersonic cruise missile, covering greater ranges than a conventional rocket. The engine, which successfully demonstrated the performance of high-speed air-breathing – using air for combustion rather than a separate onboard oxygen device – is set to greatly advance the UK's hypersonic weapon capabilities. The Ministry of Defence said that the research, which took place in recent months, aims to support delivery of a hypersonic weapon technology demonstrator by 2030 through the department's Team Hypersonics (UK) programme. It said the engine will provide a 'transformational capability' that delivers operational advantage for the future UK armed forces. As part of a joint team led by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and the US Air Force Research Laboratory, 233 successful static test runs were conducted at the Nasa Langley Research Centre in Virginia, USA. The testing was part of the UK's Hypersonic Weapons Programme, which took place over six weeks involving real-time data analysis to refine design aspects and boost propulsive performance, with support from industry partners including UK SME Gas Dynamics Ltd. The Telegraph last year revealed that under the previous Conservative government, Britain planned to equip the Armed Forces with a home-grown hypersonic cruise missile by the end of the decade. To fight adversaries, a missile that could reach speeds exceeding Mach 5 was desired to catch up with China, Russia and the US. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, said: 'We are living in a more dangerous world and it has never been more important for us to innovate and stay ahead of our adversaries, equipping our forces with the technologies of the future. 'This milestone moment on hypersonics research, supported by British scientists and British small businesses, demonstrates another crucial area where we are working in lockstep with the United States to bolster our Armed Forces and strengthen our deterrence.' Dstl's chief executive, Paul Hollinshead, described the milestone as a 'critical advancement' in the UK's defence, which 'reinforces our standing in the Aukus hypersonic weapon development collaboration'. 'The success of these tests highlights the UK's commitment to technological leadership and innovation in this crucial area,' he added. At the end of last year, the UK, the US and Australia reached a deal to accelerate the delivery of 'battle-winning' hypersonic missiles. Under the second pillar of the Aukus submarine pact, it was agreed that the three nations will develop, build and test projectiles that travel five-times faster than the speed of sound. The countries are pooling expertise and resources to make sure weapons, launchers and defensive systems are delivered ahead of schedule.

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