Latest news with #Dunkelberg
The Hill
13-05-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Small business optimism declines: Survey
Small business optimism dipped in April for the fourth month in a row, according to the monthly National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey released Tuesday. April was also the second consecutive month in which the small business optimism index fell below the 51-year average of 98, in the poll of small business owners. In April, the index declined by 1.6 percentage points to 95.8. The index came in at 97.4 in March; 100.7 in February; 102.8 in January; 105.1 in December 2024; 101.7 in November 2024. From mid-2022 to October 2024, the index hovered between the high-80s and low-90s. The survey asks small business owners a series of questions to gauge the economic conditions and economic sentiment among business owners. The index includes 'hard' components, including job creation plans, job openings, inventory plans, earnings and capital expenditure plans; and 'soft' components, such as expected business conditions, outlook for expansion, expected real sales, expected credit conditions and inventory satisfaction. The decline in the optimism index was driven in large part by the six-point drop in small business owners' expected business conditions and the six-point drop in unfilled job openings. The share of small business owners expecting better business conditions in six months fell from a net 21 percent in March to a net 15 percent in April — the lowest point since October 2024. In April, 34 percent of business owners reported having job openings they couldn't fill. The last time the level was this low was in January 2021, during the COVID-19 recession. The uncertainty index also fell in April to 92, down from 96 in March, but it remains well above the historical average of 68. 'Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,' NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement. 'While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments,' Dunkelberg continued.
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Small business optimism plunged in March before 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement
Small business owners were feeling uncertain in March even before Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariff announcements shook markets and sparked broad fears about the prospect of a US recession. The National Federation of Independent Business' optimism index dropped by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, marking the biggest monthly decline since June 2022. This was just above economists' forecasts, which predicted a reading of 99, according to Bloomberg data. This drop pushes the index below its 51-year average of 98 just three months after reaching a near-record high of 105.1 in December. "The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months," NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement. In early March, Trump rolled out the first phase of his new tariff plans, putting levies on imports from Canada and Mexico. 'Small business owners have scaled back expectations on sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them," Dunkelberg added. Tuesday's data showed the drop in optimism largely driven by a 16-point fall in expectations for better market conditions over the next six months. The NFIB's uncertainty index also fell by 8 points from February. Expectations for business conditions and sales continued to slide. he percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points to just 21%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the biggest drop since December 2020. Additionally, the number of owners expecting higher sales volumes fell 11 points to just 3%, continuing a downward trend for the third month in a row. Notably, the report didn't mention tariffs. Among the owners who reported lower profits, 35% blamed weaker sales, 11% said the decline was due to the increased cost of materials, and 8% cited rising labor costs. About 16% of owners said inflation was a significant issue hindering their business, unchanged from February but falling in its ranking. Labor remains a major challenge, with 40% of owners reporting unfilled job openings, up two points from February. Meanwhile, only 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, a three-point drop from February and the lowest level since April 2024. 'As the deck chairs continue to move, it will be a turbulent time, even on Main Street,' Dunkelberg said. Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @daniromerotv. Sign in to access your portfolio
