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Globe and Mail
20-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Markets React to Fed's Forecast Adjustments: E-mini S&P and NQ Face Key Levels
Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report from Miami to discuss the market dynamic ahead of the Fed, NVDA's GTC conference, and more. E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday's close: Settled at 5729.75, up 60.50 NQ, yesterday's close: Settled at 19,951.00, up 249.25 The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and raised its Core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. The committee also said it will slow the pace of its balance sheet runoff. The adjustments were to be expected and arguably align with an optimistic view because it sees GDP improving and Core PCE coming down in 2026-2027, signaling a temporary hit aligned with tariffs. This, coupled with a calm demeanor from Fed Chair Powell during his press conference, brought calm over markets amid a time of tremendous uncertainties. At least for a moment, there are slightly less uncertainties and risk-assets responded favorably. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures ramped ahead of the Fed's announcement, and after, before coming off the best levels for settlement. The overnight was firm too, but early this morning things turned south. One could blame the traditionally fickle day after the Fed meeting price action, European central bank decisions and jawboning, soft price action in China, and stops below yesterday's late low. The move now creates major three-star resistance, detailed in our levels below, aligning with yesterday's settlement. It also lowers our Pivot and point of balance, a pocket in which we must see price action hold at and above through the first hour in order to set up for strength, otherwise leaving the market vulnerable once again, coming in at…. Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Globe and Mail
27-01-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Tech Selloff Signals Rotation to Cyclicals: Key Support Levels in Focus
E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March) S&P, last week's close: Settled at 6133.25, down 18.75 on Friday and up 99.75 on the week NQ, last week's close: Settled at 21,911.25, down 127.00 on Friday and up 316.50 on the week The AI theme was bludgeoned overnight with competition emerging last week and gaining traction over the weekend from the Chinese open-source large language model DeepSeek. Many questions remain unanswered, most prominently regarding the source of computing power, given regulations on NVDA chip exports. DeepSeek has shown performance comparable to that of OpenAI's ChatGPT, but claims to do so with more efficiency and lower costs. E-mini NQ futures lost more than 5% on the low. It is easy to get caught up in the day's headlines, but this move aligns exactly with what I spoke about on CNBC last Thursday, a rotation from tech to more cyclical names. We imagined a move that would play out for weeks and even months, but such a viscous selloff could have already accomplished the bulk of the unwind, paving the way for opportunity. Still, we approached this week cautiously and reduced our Bullish Bias last week, ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision. With volatility picking up, we are zeroing in on several significant areas. First, the low in the E-mini S&P was nearly a .618 retracement, which stands as major three-star support at 5943.75. For the E-mini NQ, it tested the previous floor, rare major four-star support at 20,639-20,662. These will be critical areas in which the bulls must defend. To the upside, we must see a move above major three-star support in order to only begin neutralizing the selling, with these levels coming in at… Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
