20-02-2025
Satellite view of China's secretive next-generation carrier
China's fourth aircraft carrier, known as Type 004, is taking shape at the Dalian shipyard, a next-generation vessel built for power projection with potential nuclear propulsion and cutting-edge electromagnetic launch technology, The War Zone reported.
Recently published satellite imagery from May 2024 shows a module consistent with a flight deck and advanced catapult system for launching aircraft, including the J-15 and Z-8 helicopter mockups seen nearby in the images.
The module may be a test or demonstrator segment judging by procedural assembly norms and the presence of mockups previously used for other carriers. The shipyard, known for constructing China's earlier Type 001 Liaoning and Type 002 Shandong carriers, supports the ongoing naval expansion.
The potentially nuclear-powered Type 004 represents a significant step in China's carrier capabilities. It features an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), similar to the US Navy's Ford class, which is gentler on airframes, has a faster recharge rate for more sorties, and can launch heavier and more varieties of aircraft.
Those aircraft may include the J-15 with more fuel and munitions and the propeller-driven KJ-600 carrier-based airborne warning and control (AEW&C). If so, it could make China's carrier air wings resemble those of the US.
However, Louis Bearn and Nick Childs mention in a November 2024 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) article that China must still learn the complexities of catapult-assisted take-off but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) carrier operations.
Bearn and Childs note that, at the time of their writing, the trials of China's first EMALS-equipped carrier, the conventionally powered Type 003 Fujian, appear to be at the stage of familiarizing the crew with the ship's operations and technologies.
They note that the US Navy took six years for its first EMALS-equipped carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, to go to sea and become fully operational.
Whether Type 004 will be conventional or nuclear-powered is unclear, with arguments for each power plant option.
In November 2024, the Associated Press (AP) reported that China had developed a land-based prototype nuclear reactor for a large surface warship, referencing satellite photos of a large facility outside Leshan in Sichuan province.
Further, Reuben Johnson mentions in a 1945 article this month that the prototype reactor may not be deployed on China's upcoming Type 004 and Type 005 carriers but on its Type 006 carrier. Johnson says the propulsion system aboard China's Type 006 would not be apparent until 2026 or early 2027.
Interestingly, Johnson notes that China developed a new nuclear reactor for its aircraft carrier instead of repurposing existing reactors, such as those that power its Type 093 nuclear attack submarines (SSN) and Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).
He suggests that China might have learned from France's experience of modifying nuclear reactor designs for its Triomphant SSBNs, Barracuda SSNs and Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier, where the modified design failed to meet specific performance requirements.
However, Asia Times has previously noted that China's Type 004 will likely be nuclear-powered. Given that China already operates nuclear-powered submarines, a nuclear-powered carrier would provide long-range power projection without the need for forward operating bases or replenishment ships, serve as a major prestige asset for China and generate the necessary power for China's EMALS technology.
The Type 003 Fujian may provide some clues as to the specifications of China's possible Type 004 carrier, as China has followed an evolutionary approach to carrier design.
This approach is apparent as China started its carrier fleet by finishing the Soviet-era Varyag hulk into the Type 001 Liaoning, built the improved Type 002 Shandong and took a significant design leap with the Type 003 Fujian.
According to Naval Technology, the Type 003 Fujian may have an 80,000-ton displacement, making it comparable to the US Kitty Hawk-class carrier, the last class of conventionally powered US carriers.
Naval Technology also says the Type 003 Fujian could carry around 50-60 aircraft, including J-15 and J-35 fighters alongside KJ-600 AEW&C.
The report mentions that China's Type 004 will likely be a larger iteration of the Type 003 Fujian, which may be nuclear-powered and have a 100,000-ton displacement, rivaling the USS Nimitz and Ford-class supercarriers.
In terms of capabilities, Maya Carlin mentions in The National Interest (TNI) this month that while the EMALS technology aboard China's Type 003 Fujian may be on par with its US counterparts, US carriers can carry up to 75 aircraft versus an estimated maximum of 60 for China's.
Carlin also notes that the US has 11 nuclear-powered carriers, while China has only three conventionally powered ones. However, she notes that China is determined to meet or exceed the US Navy's capabilities in the future.
While there are varying estimates on how many carriers China aims to build and how many of them would be nuclear-powered, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) mentioned in February 2019 that China aims to have six carriers by 2035, four of which will be nuclear-powered.
China could use its conventionally powered carriers, such as the Type 001 Liaoning, Type 002 Shandong and Type 003 Fujian, to blockade Taiwan and control the First Island Chain, stretching from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines.
Conventional power limits the operational range of these carriers, forcing them to operate relatively close to China for resupply and refueling.
However, nuclear-powered carriers would not face that limitation and would be able China to project power up to the Second Island Chain, spanning the Bonin and Volcano Islands, the Marianas Islands, the Caroline Islands and up to Western New Guinea in the Pacific.
These carriers could also operate under a 'missile umbrella' consisting of DF-21 and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) based on the Chinese mainland, preventing a disastrous carrier-on-carrier clash with the US akin to the Battle of Midway during World War II, wherein Japan lost four fleet carriers and the strategic initiative in the Pacific Theater.
