Latest news with #ENSO
New Straits Times
3 days ago
- Climate
- New Straits Times
Hot spell to persist in Malaysia until end of July
KUALA LUMPUR: The current hot spell affecting parts of the country is expected to persist until the end of this month, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (METMalaysia). Its director-general, Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, said the heat remains within normal levels and does not meet the criteria for an extreme heatwave, although temperatures in some areas may reach up to 36°C. "Most areas in the country are forecast to receive minimal rainfall over the next week due to the formation of a tropical storm in the western Pacific Ocean near the Philippines. "With the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index predicted to remain at neutral levels through the end of the year, extreme heat is not expected to strike the country during this Southwest Monsoon season," he said. He added that the latest weather forecast model analysis shows that active tropical cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean and South China Sea are disrupting the country's rainfall patterns. As a result, he said, cloud seeding operations in the northern regions of the Peninsular, especially in Kerian, Perak, are currently not suitable, despite the dry and low-rainfall conditions. "The influence of active tropical cyclones makes it unsuitable to carry out cloud seeding at this time. "However, should there be significant weather changes based on updated forecast models, we will inform the relevant authorities," he added. Previously, Agriculture and Food Security Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu said cloud seeding would be carried out to address the issue of dry rice fields due to declining water levels at Bukit Merah Lake caused by the heat. Hisham explained that METMalaysia acts solely as a technical advisor and agency upon receiving an official request from any party wishing to conduct cloud seeding, particularly in water shortage crises such as the one in Kerian. "METMalaysia will conduct weather forecast analysis using the latest models, taking into account factors such as high humidity levels, the presence of towering cumulus clouds in the targeted areas, and atmospheric stability. "All these factors will help promote cloud formation and development suitable for generating rain during cloud seeding operations," he said.
Time of India
7 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
U'khand emerging as hotspot for extreme climate events: Study
Dehradun: A new scientific study published in the 'Journal of the Geological Society of India' has confirmed what many in Uttarakhand have long feared -- the state is fast becoming a hotspot for extreme weather events. The study flagged alarming trends in rainfall variability, surface runoff and rising temperatures, alongside a sharp spike in cloudbursts and flash floods, especially since 2010. Conducted by geoscientists from Doon University, Wadia Institute and Delhi University, the study -- published in the July issue -- analysed nearly four decades (1982-2020) of climate data using satellite-based models. The findings suggested that Uttarakhand is increasingly vulnerable to both monsoon and non-monsoon extreme weather, driven by a complex interplay of regional climatic shifts and global phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Researchers observed a distinct increase in extreme rainfall and surface runoff events post-2010. From 1998 to 2009, the state saw rising temperatures and unusually low rainfall -- a trend that coincided with weakened global climate oscillations. But after 2010, the pattern reversed, particularly in central and western Uttarakhand, accompanied by a surge in cloudbursts. "Analysing cloudburst and extreme rainfall events in Uttarakhand between 1970 and 2021 reveals a clear increase in frequency after 2010," said YP Sundriyal, professor at Doon University and lead author of the study. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Is it legal? How to get Internet without paying a subscription? Techno Mag Learn More Undo The study examined 140 extreme hydro-meteorological events, most clustered between 30°-31°N latitude and 79°–80.5°E longitude -- a zone aligned with the Main Central Thrust (MCT), a major geological fault line. Rudraprayag and Bageshwar districts emerged as key hotspots, owing to the region's geological fragility and the influence of orographic lifting. While seasonal temperature variations were less erratic than rainfall, consistent warming was observed in the northern glaciated zones, especially in upper Rudraprayag and Bageshwar. These areas also showed increasing surface radiative temperature, which the researchers said may correlate with glacial retreat and heightened flood risk. Notably, the study challenged the prevailing assumption that extreme rainfall events in the region are primarily driven by positive ENSO or Indian Ocean Dipole phases. "The relationship is more nuanced than previously thought," the authors noted, suggesting that local moisture transport patterns and Himalayan topography may exert stronger influence on regional climate dynamics. The authors called for urgent district-level climate adaptation planning, better early warning systems and enhanced monitoring in high-risk zones, especially as Uttarakhand continues to face cascading climate challenges.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate pattern shows signs of shifting. What will happen in the US?
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite of the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the United States, other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest, including New York, tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 email to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin. But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPC's ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2025 La Niña forecast says major shift may be brewing
Indian Express
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Indian Express
Temperatures along equatorial Pacific Ocean to remain neutral till October: NOAA
The US agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions would prevail along the equatorial Pacific Ocean until October this year, meaning the Indian summer monsoon would not be under the threat of either El Niño or La Niña till the end of this season. Part of the ENSO climatic cycle, El Nino is known to negatively interfere with the monsoon and in the past, subdued rainfall was linked to the conditions. 'ENSO neutral conditions are likely over the Northern hemisphere during August-October. Later, La Niña conditions increase during the winter of 2025-2026,' NOAA said in its latest monthly ENSO bulletin. The sea surface temperatures recorded along the equatorial Pacific Ocean in June ranged between 0 and 0.4 degree Celsius. The coupled ocean-atmospheric system in the tropical Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO neutral conditions. Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had also said that the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest that these neutral conditions will likely persist till the end of the monsoon season. On the ENSO component close to home, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Met department had said, 'Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast indicates a possible transition to negative IOD conditions during the coming months'. ENSO, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon considered as one of the most important recurring natural events capable of altering the global atmospheric circulation, has three phases: warm (El Nino), neutral, and cool (La Nina). La Niña is known to positively influence the southwest monsoon and bring normal or above-seasonal rainfall, and El Niño has been linked with below-average seasonal rainfall and even droughts in some years.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate troublemaker La Niña may arrive later in 2025
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the U.S., other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 e-mail to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, as this map shows: But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer 2025, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPCs' ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Global climate troublemaker La Niña may be brewing
